Ethnic violence flared up in several regions and tensions erupted with Sudan following cross-border attack by militia. In Somali region in east, inter-clan clashes 1-3 May reportedly left at least two dozen dead in Erer and Afdheer zones. Ethnic Afar 11 May reportedly launched raid on ethnic Somalis in town of Madaane; initial attack and subsequent fighting left at least eight dead on both sides. In Amhara region in north, ethnic clashes 16 May reportedly killed eleven in Agew Awi zone; unidentified gunmen 31 May shot and killed two local officials in North Wollo zone. In Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ region in south, land dispute triggered clashes between ethnic Misqan and Mareqo leaving at least six dead in Gurage zone 18 May. In Oromia region in centre, fighting between armed opposition faction Oromo Liberation Army and police early May left at least a dozen police officers and unknown number of insurgents dead in Guji area; local sources accused security forces of killing around a dozen civilians in Kellem Wellega and West Wellega zones 19-26 May; authorities denied claims. In Tigray region in north, ruling party Tigray People’s Liberation Front 4 May said it may organise regional elections as planned in Aug despite postponement of general elections due to COVID-19; PM Abiy 7 May warned against “unconstitutional attempts to undertake illegal elections”. Also in Tigray, police 17 May shot man dead for reportedly violating COVID-19 restrictions in regional capital Mekelle. Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt took steps to revive negotiations over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Blue Nile river. All three countries 21 May agreed to resume tripartite negotiations between water ministers (see Nile Waters). Cross-border attack by militia allegedly supported by Ethiopian army 28 May left at least one Sudanese soldier dead in Sudan’s Al-Qadarif province; Sudan 30 May summoned Ethiopian envoy; Ethiopia next day called for joint investigation into incident.

Ethnic violence broke out in north west, armed groups continued to launch attacks against civilians in Oromia region and govt declared nationwide state of emergency amid COVID-19 pandemic. In Benishangul-Gumuz region in north west, armed group 3 April launched attack, reportedly ethnically motivated, on Gilgel Beles town leaving at least eight dead. In western Oromia, suspected members of armed opposition faction Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) 9 April killed three civilians in Genji town. After COVID-19 pandemic late March prompted electoral board to delay general elections planned for Aug, opposition parties Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) 2 April said postponement offers opportunity to address “mistakes that have been threatening to derail Ethiopia’s transition to democracy”. Political party Tigray People’s Liberation Front late April said elections should proceed as planned. In response to COVID-19, govt 8 April declared five-month nationwide state of emergency, including ban on gatherings of more than four people. COVID-19 restrictions sparked isolated incidents: in capital Addis Ababa, police mid-to-late April arrested some 50 individuals for violating state of emergency, including at least one opposition leader; four individuals mid-April reportedly beat to death man, who urged them to adhere to social distancing, in Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ region. Amid stalemate in negotiations with Egypt and Sudan on filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Blue Nile River, PM Abiy 1 April said dam would be filled during rainy season (June-Sept). In meeting in Sudan’s capital Khartoum 10 April, army chief of staff, Sudanese counterpart and head of Sovereign Council Abdel-Fattah Burhan reportedly agreed to coordinate border security operations following spate of criminal violence and clashes between militias on border between Amhara region and Sudan’s Al-Qadarif state.

Ethnic violence broke out in east, counter-insurgency operations continued in Oromia region, and electoral board postponed general elections set for Aug due to COVID-19 outbreak, while tensions with Egypt mounted over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Blue Nile River. In Afar region in east, Oromo and Afar communities allegedly clashed in Awash area mid-March, leaving dozens dead; violence apparently sparked by state police attack against ethnic Oromo that left ten dead. In Oromia region, security forces continued to confront armed opposition faction Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), while govt 31 March ended internet shutdown that had been in place in since Jan. After Feb escalation over GERD dispute when govt said it would start filling dam in July with or without agreement with downstream countries and Egypt 29 Feb threatened to use “all available means” to protect its interests, Arab League 5 March adopted Egyptian-drafted resolution rejecting any move by Ethiopia to fill dam without agreement. Govt 6 March rejected resolution and praised Sudan for refusing to sign it. Army 12 March warned that any attack on dam would prompt retaliation. Sudan 15 March offered to mediate between Ethiopia and Egypt. Amid global spread of COVID-19, PM Abiy 23 March closed land borders and banned gatherings; electoral board 31 March postponed general elections planned for Aug.

Political violence and counter-insurgency operations continued notably in Oromia region, while ethnic clashes broke out in west. In Oromia region near capital Addis Ababa, security operations continued against rebel group Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and its former armed wing Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) amid Internet blackout. Security forces 15 Feb raided OLF office in Welenchiti town killing one OLF supporter; later that day security forces arrested and allegedly beat some 30 OLF supporters in Burayu town. Suspected OLA grenade attack at pro-PM Abiy rally in Ambo town 23 Feb left at least 29 injured. In Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ region, security forces late Feb opened fire on anti-govt protesters leaving six dead in Maji zone. In Gambella region in west, clashes between two communities reportedly sparked by killing of local official left at least a dozen dead in Nuer zone late Feb. In Addis Ababa, police night of 4 Feb attempted to demolish Orthodox Christian church built on disputed plot of land, leading to clashes between police and local community that left at least two killed. Electoral board 14 Feb pushed back general elections from 16 to 29 Aug; coalition of opposition parties 21 Feb called for further delay due to rainy season and insecurity. Electoral board 21 Feb directed opposition party Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) to produce proof of Ethiopian citizenship of Jawar Mohammed, ethnic Oromo activist and prominent Abiy critic, within ten days. Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan reported progress toward final agreement on filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on River Nile after meeting in Washington DC in U.S. 12-13 Feb, but Ethiopia boycotted next trilateral meeting 27-28 Feb, requesting more time for internal consultations. Abiy facilitated first face-to-face meeting between Somalia President Farmajo and Somaliland President Bihi in Addis Ababa 11 Feb.

Political violence and counter-insurgency operations continued in Oromia region, parties manoeuvred ahead of elections tentatively set for Aug, and Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan reported some progress in talks to resolve dispute over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Blue Nile River creating opportunity to strike comprehensive agreement in Feb. Security forces early Jan launched counter-insurgency operation against armed opposition faction Oromo Liberation Army in western Oromia, where govt reportedly blocked internet and mobile phone usage. Clashes erupted at Haramaya University in eastern Oromia 11 Jan between security forces and students reportedly protesting counter-insurgency operations in region, some students injured. Residents in Amhara regional state in north late Jan took to streets to protest alleged kidnapping in Oromia of up to 27 students from Amhara. Authorities reportedly arrested at least 75 supporters of opposition parties in Oromia late Jan. After Jawar Mohammed, ethnic Oromo activist and prominent critic of PM Abiy, 30 Dec joined opposition party Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), OFC, Oromo Liberation Front and Oromo National Party 3 Jan formed Coalition for Democratic Federalism. Electoral board 15 Jan tentatively set 16 Aug as date of general elections. Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan made some progress in GERD talks in Addis Ababa, Khartoum and Washington, agreeing 31 Jan in Washington on various aspects including filling and operation of dam during drought and instructing technical and legal teams to prepare comprehensive agreement for signature by end Feb.

Ethnic violence continued especially at universities and Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan reported progress in talks to resolve dispute over Ethiopia’s construction of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Blue Nile River. Students clashed at Arsi University in Oromia region 3 Dec and at Gondar University 8 Dec, one student reportedly killed. UN expert on freedom of speech 10 Dec warned that draft legislation against use of hate speech and disinformation could threaten freedom of expression and exacerbate ethnic tensions. Police in Gojam region in west 7 Dec seized 57 Kalashnikovs being transported from Dejen to Bahir Dar in Amhara region. Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan continued talks on Ethiopia’s construction of dam on Blue Nile River. Ministers held technical meetings in Cairo 2-3 Dec and Khartoum 21-22 Dec registering progress; FMs 9 Dec agreed to reconvene in Washington 13 Jan to review outcome of talks. In Somalia’s Gedo region, Somali opposition coalition Forum for National Parties 1 Dec accused Ethiopia of violating Somalia’s territorial sovereignty and demanded immediate withdrawal of all non-AMISOM Ethiopian troops.

Ruling coalition decided to become single party, ethnic Sidama voted in referendum to create new federal state, and Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan committed to resolve dispute over Nile waters by mid-Jan. Three of four regional parties in ruling coalition 16 Nov voted in favour of merging to become one national party called Prosperity Party; fourth party, Tigray People’s Liberation Front, opposed move, while affiliated ruling parties from five other regions set to join. Residents of Sidama Zone in south 20 Nov held referendum on whether to turn region into semi-autonomous federal state; electoral board 23 Nov said 98.5% voted in favour and turnout was 99.7%. Ethnic violence erupted at Woldia University in Amhara region in north 9 Nov, leaving two students dead, and spread to other universities in Amhara and Oromia regions; another student killed at Dire Dawa University in east. FMs from Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan in Washington 6 Nov agreed to hold four technical meetings, with World Bank and U.S. as observers, in bid to reach agreement by 15 Jan on filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Blue Nile River.

Protests against PM Abiy sparked violence that left over 70 dead, intercommunal attacks continued in several places, and tensions persisted between Ethiopia and Egypt over former’s construction of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Blue Nile. In Oromia region, after ethnic Oromo activist recently critical of Abiy, Jawar Mohammed, accused security forces of trying to remove his security detail, hundreds of his supporters protested against Abiy in capital Addis Ababa and several other places. Security forces sought to disperse protesters and protests sparked inter-ethnic attacks, mostly by informal groups of Oromo; violence left at least 78 dead. In Afar region in east, ethnic Somali raiders 11-12 Oct reportedly killed sixteen ethnic Afar in Afambo woreda. In dispute over Ethiopia’s construction of GERD, both Ethiopia and Egypt increased hostile rhetoric; countries’ leaders met in Sochi, Russia during Russia-Africa summit 23-24 Oct and reiterated commitment to dialogue. U.S. invited Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan to talks in Washington 6 Nov. Following two-day visit of Sudanese delegation, Abiy and Sudanese PM Hamdok 11 Oct agreed on joint cross-border pipeline project. Abiy 11 Oct won Nobel Peace Prize in particular for his efforts to resolve his country’s conflict with Eritrea.

Insecurity persisted as opposition contested new electoral law ahead of 2020 general elections and new talks between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan over Nile waters failed to make headway. Group of opposition parties 3 Sept threatened to boycott 2020 elections if govt refused to change electoral law passed in Aug, in particular new regulations that would raise number of signatures required for parties to register. Electoral board 9 Sept released plan for preparation of referendum scheduled for 13 Nov on changing Sidama zone in Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ state into new ethnic federal state; plan stipulates that all residents of Sidama zone are eligible to vote, not just ethnic Sidama. Following 12 Sept grenade attack on police camp in Burayu town, Oromia region near capital Addis Ababa, authorities arrested 22 people suspected of involvement in attack whom they accused of having ties with armed splinter of ethno-nationalist group Oromo Liberation Front. Army 12 Sept said security forces had detained unspecified number of Islamic State members in Addis Ababa, Oromia region and Somali region. In Gambella region in west, unidentified attackers 5 Sept killed two staff members of NGO Action Against Hunger prompting UN and humanitarian organisations to suspend operations in region until security has improved. Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan held talks in Cairo 15-16 Sept aimed at resolving dispute over Ethiopia’s construction of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on River Nile; parties failed to make breakthrough with Ethiopia and Egypt still disagreeing on fill rate of reservoir.

Amid ongoing violence, govt expressed determination to hold general elections in May 2020 as scheduled. Parliament 30 July again postponed village and district elections and polls for Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa city councils, saying they would be held alongside 2020 parliamentary and regional elections. PM Abiy 1 Aug said govt would hold general elections in May 2020 as scheduled. Executive Committee of ruling coalition Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) 9 Aug confirmed election timeline, and said coalition’s four member parties would consider merging into one and invite five affiliated regional parties to join. Parliament 24 Aug passed new electoral bill, after 57 opposition parties previous day said EPRDF, which controls all seats in parliament, had ignored their amendments; new bill notably raised number of signatures required to register national parties from 1,500 to 10,000 and to register regional parties from 750 to 4,000. Electoral board 29 Aug said it would hold referendum on creation of Sidama federal state 13 Nov, after Sidama activists clashed with police over delay in July. Unidentified gunmen 8 Aug reportedly killed seven civilians in Gumbi Bordede district of Oromia regional state. Police 5 Aug arrested unknown number of people suspected of plotting to free from prison former president of eastern Somali regional state Abdi Mohammed Omer, arrested in Aug 2018 for inciting violence. Police 9 Aug arrested journalist Mesganaw Getachew on terrorism charges. Clashes between herders in south 14 Aug left at least two Ethiopians and one Kenyan dead.