CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Ethiopia

Ethnic violence rose in and around capital Addis Ababa in days around return of exiled members of rebel group Oromo Liberation Front (OLF); group fought for self-determination of ethnic Oromo people but signed reconciliation agreement with govt in Aug. Supporters of former rebels held mass rally in Addis Ababa to mark their return 15 Sept, some attacked non-Oromo residents, in particular ethnic Guraghe and Gamo in Burayu district. Violence 12-16 Sept affected Addis neighbourhoods of Piassa, Merkato, Sheromeda, Ashawa Meda, Kataa, Fili Doro and Petros; at least 28 people killed. Security services 17 Sept forcibly dispersed crowds in Addis Ababa protesting against govt’s failure to prevent or stem violence, killing five people. Police 24 Sept said it had arrested over 1,200 people on suspicion of holding “illegal rallies”, burglaries and other crimes. Violence between ethnic Gumuz and Oromos in Kamash zone of Benishangul-Gumuz region in west late Sept reportedly left five people dead. In further steps toward restoring relations, Ethiopia reopened its embassy in Eritrean capital Asmara 6 Sept and PM Abiy and Eritrean President Afwerki celebrated opening of border crossing at Serha-Zalambesa 11 Sept, Ethiopian New Year. In tripartite summit in Saudi city of Jeddah 17 Sept between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Saudi Arabia, Abiy and Afwerki signed final peace agreement ending twenty years of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

Africa

Ethiopia

Ethno-religious tensions and mob violence rose in several areas, especially in Somali region in east. In east, after federal govt forces tried to dismantle Somali region’s Liyu police and remove regional President Abdi Mohamoud Omer (known as Abdi Illey), both accused of human rights violations, youth and Liyu police attacked non-ethnic Somalis, looted and burned their property and burned Ethiopian Orthodox churches in regional capital Jijiga 4-5 Aug. Govt soldiers reportedly exchanged fire with local Liyu police. Liyu police cracked down on residents protesting attacks 6 Aug, killing four. Violence spread to at least four other towns. Attacks in Dire Dawa, about 150km west of Jijiga, 2 Aug left at least nine people dead, including six Djiboutian citizens; some 2,700 Djiboutians evacuated to Djibouti. Abdi Illey resigned 6 Aug without giving reason, replaced by region’s Finance Minister Ahmed Abdi Mohamed. Oromia region official said Liyu police carried out cross-border attacks in East Hararghe district of Oromia region 11-12 Aug, killing at least 40 ethnic Oromos. Unidentified assailants reportedly killed at least thirteen ethnic Somalis in same district 28 Aug. Following parliament’s removal of three rebel groups from list of terrorist organisations in July, govt 7 Aug signed reconciliation agreement with one, Oromo Liberation Front, fighting for self-determination of Oromia region; another, Ogaden National Liberation Front, fighting for secession of Somali region, 12 Aug declared unilateral ceasefire. Exiled leadership of third, Patriotic Ginbot 7, early Aug said it would return home and launch political activities. Amhara region authorities 16 Aug signed reconciliation agreement with rebel group Amhara Democratic Forces Movement exiled in Eritrea. Govt 10 Aug said United Arab Emirates was exploring investment opportunities there, including building oil pipeline between Addis Ababa and Eritrea’s Assab port.

Africa

Ethiopia

PM Abiy took further steps to make peace with Eritrea paving way for further consolidation in Aug, and made progress in combatting repression and abuses by state forces domestically. During Abiy’s landmark visit to Eritrean capital, Asmara 9 July, he and Eritrean President Afwerki agreed to end “state of war” between countries. Afwerki visited Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa 14-16 July and reopened Eritrean embassy. Countries restored telephone connections and Ethiopian Airlines 18 July resumed flights to Eritrea. Abiy and Afwerki in United Arab Emirates 24 July thanked Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan for role in fostering peace between two countries; Prince Mohammed awarded both leaders highest civilian honour for ending war. Govt 5 July removed from list of terrorist organisations three rebel groups (Oromo Liberation Front, Ogaden National Liberation Front and Ginbot 7) and opened access to over 200 previously banned websites. Same day senior prison officials were fired for failing to protect prisoners’ rights. Authorities 11 July released political prisoners from Jijiga prison in Somali region in east after Somali regional state President Abdi Iley admitted his forces had committed abuses. Parliament 20 July passed law granting amnesty to former political prisoners. Project manager of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam being built on Nile, Simegnew Bekele, found shot dead in his car in centre of Addis Ababa 26 July, hundreds immediately protested in Addis and his hometown Gondar in north west demanding justice.

Africa

Ethiopia

Talks between Ethiopia and Eritrea over contested border opened opportunity to advance rapprochement, as ethnic violence continued in several areas. PM Abiy 5 June said govt would accept 2002 ruling of Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission that sought to end 1998-2000 war and concede to Eritrea Badme town and other small territories on border held up till present by Ethiopian troops. Announcement met international approval, but local communities in border areas and Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), ethnic Tigrayan party in ruling coalition, criticised move. Eritrean President Afwerki 20 June said he would send delegation to Addis Ababa and Eritrean FM Osman Saleh held talks with Abiy 26 June. Govt 30 June said it had submitted to parliament proposal to remove from list of terrorist organisations three rebel groups: Oromo Liberation Front, Ogaden National Liberation Front and Ginbot 7. Ethnic violence continued in several areas. In Hawassa, capital of Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples (SNNP) regional state, violence sparked by ethnic Sidama demands for their own state left at least ten people dead. Ethnic Guji and Gedeo early June clashed on border between SNNP and Oromia regional states reportedly leaving several dead. In Somali regional state, local state paramilitaries known as Liyu police clashed with residents protesting against rule of state president Abdi Iley. Tens of thousands gathered in central Addis Ababa in support of Abiy 23 June, but grenade attack at rally left two people dead and scores wounded; 30 people detained over suspected links to attack. Abiy met Egyptian President Sisi in Cairo 10 June; both expressed commitment to resolving dispute over potential impact of Ethiopia’s dam on Egypt’s Nile waters. Egypt next day released 32 Ethiopian prisoners. Following Abiy’s visit to United Arab Emirates (UAE) in May, UAE delegation in Addis 16 June pledged $3bn to govt in direct aid and investments.

Africa

Ethiopia

In talks on Ethiopia’s construction of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Nile River held in Addis Ababa 15-16 May, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan agreed to set up technical team to consult on filling of dam’s reservoir and that heads of state would meet every six months; Egypt also reportedly withdrew its proposal that World Bank arbitrate dispute. Earlier talks 5 May ended in stalemate. Amid push toward political opening, Amhara regional state 7 May said it would pardon 3,591 prisoners. Govt 11-12 May began talks with exiled opposition group Oromo Democratic Front (ODF), which said it would return to Ethiopia and form political party; PM Abiy and ODF leaders met in Addis Ababa 23 May and agreed to pursue national unity. Members of Oromo and Garre ethnic groups clashed in Moyale town, near border with Kenya 6 May; several people reportedly killed and some fled across border into Kenya. Govt 26 May announced pardon or removal of charges against 749 detainees, including opposition leader and Ethiopian-British dual national Andargachew Tsige. Amnesty International 31 May alleged that Somali state police attacked civilians in neighbouring Oromia 23 and 24 May, killing five.

Africa

Ethiopia

New PM Abiy Ahmed took several measures to mitigate ethnic tensions, promote national unity and relax restrictions on civil liberties. Head of ethnic Oromo party, Abiy Ahmed, elected chairman of ruling coalition Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front late March, sworn in as prime minister 2 April. In his first trip, Abiy 7 April went to Jijiga, capital of Somali regional state, in bid to ease tensions between ethnic Somalis and Oromos. Govt 6 April said it had closed Maekelawi prison, alleged torture site, and same day internet service reportedly resumed in parts of Oromia regional state; internet access restored in other areas 16 April. Abiy 19 April appointed ten new ministers including defence minister. Lawyer representing opposition figures, arrested 25 March for reportedly displaying banned version of national flag, said 5 April they had been released. Arrests under state of emergency imposed mid-Feb continued, particularly in Oromia. Small-scale protests reported in Ambo, Oromia regional state and parts of Somali regional state late April. Lower parliament citing security concerns 12 April postponed local elections for a year and 30 April postponed population census. Grenade attack by unidentified assailants 17 April killed four people in Moyale town, Oromia, close to border with Kenya. Talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over latter’s building of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Nile 4-5 April ended without agreement on any issues; Egypt 19 April said Ethiopia and Sudan had not responded to its invitation to resume talks in Cairo. U.S. Congress 10 April passed resolution condemning rights abuses by Ethiopian security forces; govt 11 April said resolution was harmful to U.S.-Ethiopia relations.

Africa

Ethiopia

Ruling coalition Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front 27 March elected Abiy Ahmed as its chairman, paving way for him to become PM, replacing Hailemariam Desalegn who announced resignation in Feb. Parliament 2 March approved state of emergency, prompting general strikes in towns across Oromia regional state early March, during which protesters clashed with security forces, several reportedly killed. Army 10 March killed at least nine civilians in Moyale town on border with Kenya after mistaking them for rebels; following incident over 8,500 people reportedly crossed from Ethiopia into Kenya; authorities 15 March arrested senior official from Oromia regional state who criticised killings. Authorities 25 March arrested some twelve opposition figures, including recently released politicians and journalists, in capital Addis Ababa for reportedly displaying prohibited version of national flag. State media 31 March said 1,107 people had been arrested under state of emergency.

Africa

Ethiopia

PM Desalegn 15 Feb said he would resign from post and leadership of ruling coalition to ease reforms, but would stay in power until successor identified; amid anti-govt protests, govt 16 Feb reimposed state of emergency, in place from Oct 2016 to Aug 2017. Following govt’s early Jan announcement that it would pardon some political prisoners, attorney general 8 Feb announced pardon of 746 prisoners, mostly detained during 2015-2016 unrest in Oromia and Amhara regions. Anti-govt protesters in several towns in Oromia mid-Feb demanded release of more opposition leaders. Oromo politician Bekele Gerba and several others released 13 Feb. Ethnic Oromo party Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO), member of ruling coalition, 21 Feb elected former army intelligence officer Abiy Ahmed as its leader, signalling intention to nominate him for PM. Somali regional govt 22 Feb said it had released 1,500 more prisoners.

Africa

Ethiopia

Security forces 20 Jan opened fire on crowd chanting anti-govt slogans at religious festival in Weldiya, Amhara region; some twelve people reportedly killed, sparking further unrest in which protesters set fire to businesses associated with pro-regime figures. Protests continued in other parts of Amhara and in Oromia region. Security forces 25 Jan allegedly fired on crowd in Kobo, Amhara region, killing seven people. PM Desalegn 3 Jan said govt would close Maekelawi prison camp, allegedly used as torture facility, and reported to have said govt would pardon or annul cases of all jailed political figures; next day Desalegn’s office said he had been misquoted and that only “some” political prisoners would be pardoned. Prosecutor general 15 Jan said charges against 528 people arrested during anti-govt protests had been dropped, including prominent Oromo opposition leader Merera Gudina jailed since Dec 2016; Gudina released 17 Jan with 115 others. Oromia regional state 26 Jan announced pardon of 2,345 prisoners jailed during unrest in 2015 and 2016, of whom 1,568 had been convicted and sentenced. PM Desalegn met Egyptian President Sisi in Cairo 18 Jan on dispute over Nile waters and construction of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Egypt sees as threat to its water supply; talks ended in stalemate as govt rejected Egyptian proposal that World Bank mediate, both sides played down reports of military tension. On sidelines of African Union summit, govt, Egypt and Sudan 29 Jan set one-month deadline for reaching agreement on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Africa

Ethiopia

Following clashes in disputed areas along border between Oromia and Somali regional states in Sept and late Nov, revenge attacks by ethnic Somalis and Oromos 14-17 Dec left at least 61 people dead. Oromia regional govt spokesman said Somali militia killed 29 Oromos in Oromia’s West Hararghe zone in east and Oromos subsequently killed 32 Somalis. EU 20 Dec called for independent investigation into violence. Parliament 29 Dec announced formation of committee to investigate clashes between ethnic Oromos and Somalis. Regional officials said soldiers 12 Dec opened fire on crowd in Oromia’s Celenko town, West Hararghe zone, killing sixteen Oromos; region’s president condemned killings as “illegal”. Security forces 29 Dec fired on crowd in Shambu city, Oromia, attempting to stop lorries transporting sugar; one person killed.

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