Jihadist violence persisted in rural areas in far north, President Nyusi sought regional support against insurgency, and armed dissident faction of Renamo continued to attack civilians in centre. Suspected jihadists launched dozens of attacks in Cabo Delgado province in far north. Notably, Islamist militants 2 May reportedly killed 34 civilians in two villages in Quissanga district; 11 and 16 May allegedly killed fifteen civilians in Miangalewa village, Muidumbe district. Security forces 13 May killed 42 jihadists on Chinda-Mbau axis in Mocimboa da Praia district, next day repelled attack in Quissanga district, killing eight jihadists. Al-Qaeda 22 May for first time claimed attack in Mocimboa da Praia district. Militants flying Islamic State (ISIS) flag 28 May occupied Macomia town; govt 31 May said security forces killed 79 Islamist militants, including two senior leaders, in counter-offensive to retake Macomia. Nyusi and regional bloc Southern African Development Community (SADC) troika including Botswana, Zambia and Zimbabwe 19 May met in Zimbabwean capital Harare to discuss security situation in Mozambique; in final communiqué, parties urged SADC member states to lend support to Mozambique against jihadist insurgency in Cabo Delgado, reportedly prompting talks between South Africa and Mozambique on possible South African assistance. Renamo dissident faction, which calls itself Renamo Military Junta, continued to launch attacks on transport routes in Sofala province in centre, killing one civilian in Nhamatanda district 17 May. Renamo Military Junta leader Mariano Nhongo 29 May claimed security forces had recently abducted several people in Nhamatanda, Sofala province, and Gondola, Manica province, on suspicion of supporting group. Trial of seven police and one civilian accused of killing prominent election observer Anastacio Matavele in Oct, ahead of presidential election, started 12 May in southern city of Xai-Xai. Nyusi 28 May extended COVID-19 state of emergency until 30 June.

Jihadist violence continued to spread in far north, while govt and former rebel group, now opposition party Renamo, agreed to resume demobilisation of Renamo troops, and armed dissident faction of Renamo continued attacks in centre. Attacks by suspected jihadists continued unabated in several districts of Cabo Delgado province in far north. Notably, Islamist militants 8 April killed 52 civilians in Xitaxi village, Muidumbe district. Security forces 7 April drove back militants in Muidumbe town, killing 39, and 10 April repelled jihadist attack on Quirimba island, leaving 59 militants dead; five civilians also killed in fighting and twenty schoolchildren reportedly kidnapped. Suspected jihadists 17 April killed six civilians in Machova Koka village, Macomia district, and 22 April beheaded four others in Imbada village, Meluco district. Govt 15 April denied militants controlled any areas of Cabo Delgado province; 23 April said for first time insurgency was “external aggression” by Islamic State (ISIS). President Nyusi and Ossufo Momade, leader of former rebel group, now opposition party Renamo, 16 April agreed demobilisation and disarmament of Renamo forces should resume. Renamo 23 April accused security forces of killing fourteen civilians in Cabo Delgado’s Palma district and near Ibo Island in three incidents mid-April; notably, security forces 12 April allegedly killed up to twelve civilians travelling by boat from Pemba to Ibo Island. Renamo dissident faction, which calls itself Renamo Military Junta, continued attacks against civilians in centre. Following Jan threat that faction would target businesses unless govt denied that Momade represented party, group’s leader Mariano Nhongo 7 April claimed previous day attack on camp of Chinese-owned timber company which left one worker dead in Matarara camp, Manica province.

Suspected Islamist militants for first time mounted attacks against urban centres in far north reportedly leaving dozens of soldiers and police dead; tensions continued between govt and armed dissident faction of former rebel group, now opposition party Renamo, amid ongoing attacks on civilians in centre. In Cabo Delgado province in far north, attacks by Islamist militants spread for first time to urban centres late March. Notably, Islamic State (ISIS) 24 March claimed previous day attack on port town of Mocímboa da Praia, said dozens of soldiers and police killed; militants flying ISIS flag 25 March raided town of Quissanga, reportedly killing six soldiers and unknown number of civilians. Islamist violence persisted in rural areas, including: ISIS 3 March claimed attack same day on Mahate village, Quissanga district, that left twelve soldiers dead; militants 4 March killed four people in Nkonda village in Nangade district; 10 March attacked army outposts near Mueda and Nangade, killing at least twelve soldiers, and same day reportedly killed up to eleven soldiers in Nguia village, Quissanga district; 4-12 March raided four villages in Mocímboa da Praia district, number of casualties unknown. Renamo dissident faction, which calls itself Renamo Military Junta, continued attacks on civilians and govt forces on main axes in Sofala province in centre, leaving at least one civilian dead near Nharichonga, Nhamatanda district mid-March. Group’s leader Mariano Nhongo 19 March threatened war if govt refused to accede to his demands. Demobilisation and disarmament of Renamo forces continued to lag behind schedule as Aug 2020 deadline to dismantle all Renamo bases nears; Renamo leader Ossufo Momade 18 March blamed delay on “agenda issues”, said process would resume late March. In response to COVID-19, President Nyusi 30 March declared state of emergency, limiting internal movement and partially closing borders from 1 April.

Attacks against civilians and security forces by suspected Islamist militants spread to new areas in far north, while demobilisation of troops from former rebel group, now opposition party Renamo, remained stalled. In Cabo Delgado province in far north, attacks by Islamist militants spread southward and westward across nine of sixteen districts, leaving dozens dead. Notably, militants killed seven civilians in Quissanga district 3 Feb and five others near Mahate village, also Quissanga district 8 Feb; militants killed three civilians in Nangade district 14 Feb, six in Nkomangano village, Mocimboa da Praia district 18 Feb, and three in Imbada village at border between Macomia and Quisanga districts 21 Feb. Islamic State (ISIS) 24 Feb claimed attacks on military posts 19-20 Feb at Chiculua and Nanquidinga villages, Mocimboa da Praia district, said seventeen soldiers were killed. In Niassa province, security forces 12 Feb killed eight suspected militants and captured four in Mecula district. After ruling out dialogue in Jan, President Nyusi in Cabo Delgado 12 Feb said he was willing to enter talks with militants. Nyusi 14 Feb urged opposition party Renamo to speed up demobilisation and disarming of its forces, currently behind schedule as Aug 2020 deadline to dismantle all Renamo bases nears. Govt 19 Feb reportedly reintroduced armed convoys on major axes in Sofala province following spate of attacks by suspected members of dissident Renamo faction. EU election observation mission 12 Feb reported “numerous irregularities and malpractice” in Oct presidential election, including ballot-box stuffing and altering of polling station results.

Suspected Islamist militants continued to attack civilians and security forces in far north and, as attacks on civilians continued in centre, armed dissident faction of opposition party Renamo threatened to escalate violence there. In Cabo Delgado province in far north, militants 3 Jan killed at least four people in ambush on minibus in Macomia district on Palma-Pemba axis; and 16 Jan killed three civilians near Roma, Mocimboa da Praia district. Militants 18 Jan killed one civilian and kidnapped two women in Manica village, Macomia district; 25 Jan attacked villages of Namaluco, Cagembe and Nagruvala in Quissanga district, killing at least three civilians. Islamic State (ISIS) 23 Jan claimed responsibility for attack on military base in Mbau same day that left 22 soldiers dead. In centre, police 5 Jan arrested six suspected members of dissident Renamo faction in Dondo, Sofala province. Following threats in Dec by faction, which calls itself Renamo Military Junta, to carry out attacks until govt denied that Renamo leader Ossufo Momade represented party, group’s leader Mariano Nhongo 13 Jan warned he would start targeting civilians and businesses. Momade 16 Jan ruled out dialogue with dissidents. Unidentified gunmen 20 Jan raided Macorococho village, Nhamatanda district in Sofala province, killing four people and looting medicine. Police continued to probe alleged links between Renamo MPs and attacks in centre, arresting and questioning several Renamo MPs throughout Jan.

Suspected Islamist militants intensified attacks on civilians and security forces in far north; deadly attacks rose in centre and dissident faction of opposition party Renamo threatened strikes there on day of President Nyusi’s inauguration for second term 15 Jan. In Cabo Delgado province in far north, militants carried out over a dozen attacks on civilians and security forces, leaving over 50 civilians and combatants dead. Notably, militants 4 Dec ambushed three vehicles 25km south of Palma, reportedly killing two; 12 Dec attacked Litapata and Malangonha villages in Muidumbe district, killing three. Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for 6 Dec ambush of military convoy in Narere village that left at least nine soldiers dead, bringing total number of ISIS-claimed attacks to at least 23. Residents in Chitunda and Namacande villages in Muidumba district 15 Dec chased away security forces in anger at their failure to protect civilians; suspected militants attacked Chitunda next day. Navy 14 Dec intercepted vessel smuggling over one tonne of heroin 50km off Cabo Delgado. Authorities 23 Dec seized over 430kg of heroin and arrested thirteen Pakistanis in Bay of Pemba. In central Mozambique, following attack on civilian vehicle late Nov, unidentified gunmen attacked bus in Manica province 2 Dec and three vehicles in Chibabava district, Sofala province 24 Dec, killing at least ten people. Renamo dissident faction, which calls itself Renamo Military Junta, denied attacks, but 27 Dec said attacks would stop if govt denied that Renamo leader Ossufo Momade represented party and threatened attacks on day of Nyusi’s swearing-in 15 Jan. Defence minister 12 Dec said Renamo was responsible for splinter group’s actions; Renamo accused govt of sponsoring dissident faction. Govt 26 Dec vowed to increase patrols and provide military escorts for vehicles travelling through centre. Constitutional council 23 Dec validated disputed results of Oct presidential election in favour of ruling party Frelimo; Renamo said it would not recognise council’s decision.

Court rejected opposition’s appeal against ruling party’s win in Oct presidential and parliamentary elections, and in north suspected Islamist militants continued to attack civilians as military continued operations against them. EU 8 Nov questioned credibility of Oct election results citing “irregularities and malpractices” during process. Constitutional Court 11 Nov dismissed opposition party Renamo’s application for annulment of poll results citing insufficient evidence. Renamo 22 Nov called for President Nyusi to resign after evidence emerged in U.S. court suggesting that he used funds borrowed by state-run security firms to finance 2014 presidential election campaign. In Manica province in centre, suspected Renamo splinter group 6 Nov ambushed minibus killing three. In Cabo Delgado province in north, suspected Islamist militants 2 Nov killed four civilians near Mumu village. Militants 12 Nov attacked Lucamba village, Nangade district killing eight civilians; 13 Nov killed seven fishermen in Nssemo village, Palma district. Military 16 Nov executed eight suspected militants in Macomia district. Islamic State (ISIS) 21 Nov claimed responsibility for 17 Nov attack in Chitunda district that killed eight including five soldiers. Militants 23 Nov killed six civilians in Darumba village, Macomia district. Militants 27 Nov killed two soldiers following attack on market area in Litingina, Nangade district. Defence Minister 13 Nov held talks with Tanzanian counterpart to discuss ways to improve security in border areas.

Tensions rose as opposition party Renamo rejected victories of President Nyusi and ruling Frelimo party in 15 Oct presidential and parliamentary polls, and fighting intensified in north between militants and govt forces backed by Russian private security company. Violent incidents marred lead-up to polls: in Sofala province in centre unidentified assailants 3 Oct bus killed three bus passengers and same day killed one person at River Pungué. In Gaza province in south, five assailants, including four suspected police officers, 7 Oct killed local electoral observer; govt next day launched investigation. Polling 15 Oct took place relatively peacefully, but in Cabo Delgado province in north seven polling stations did not open due to risk of attack by militants. Renamo 19 Oct rejected preliminary results that indicated clear Frelimo victory and called for rerun; 29 Oct appealed Constitutional Council to annul results. EU election observers and U.S. embassy 19 Oct denounced irregularities in process and questioned validity of results. In Nhamatanda, Sofala province, gunmen 29 Oct shot dead two police officers and kidnapped two Frelimo zone secretaries. In Cabo Delgado province, militants 2 Oct kidnapped twenty in Nantodola village. Personnel of Russian private security company Wagner Group reportedly arrived in Cabo Delgado province 2 Oct with materiel including three attack helicopters; govt 3 Oct acknowledged Russia was providing military support, Russia 8 Oct denied presence of its soldiers in country. In first official confirmation of govt attack on militants, govt said soldiers 5 Oct killed nine militants some 30km from Mocimboa da Praia. Clashes between militants and govt forces alongside Russians in Mocimboa da Praia district 7 Oct left over 30 militants and two Russians dead. Militants’ ambush in Muidumbe district 27 Oct reportedly left twenty Mozambican soldiers and five Russians dead. Militants 31 Oct killed ten civilians near Mbau village.

Ahead of 15 Oct general elections, opposition accused ruling Frelimo party of intimidation and trying to rig polls and suspected jihadist attacks continued in north; rebel faction and jihadists could seek to violently disrupt polling. Breakaway faction of former rebel group now opposition party Renamo 19 Sept reiterated pledge to disrupt polling and increase attacks during campaign. Renamo district delegate for Nampula in north 23 Sept said that Frelimo members had been intimidating Renamo supporters and preventing them from putting up election posters. Renamo officials 24 Sept accused Frelimo members of illicitly collecting voter cards in southern province of Inhambane to manipulate voting. Stampede at election rally for President Nyusi in Nampula 12 Sept left ten people dead. In far north, unidentified militants 18 Sept attacked Christian village of Quiterajo and military post in Cobre in Macomia district, Cabo Delgado province killing six and abducting ten, Islamic State same day claimed responsibility. Suspected jihadists 23 Sept attacked Mbau village in Mocimboa da Praia district killing twelve people and burning down Frelimo HQ. Same day militants decapitated two farmers near village of Mindumbe. Locals in Niassa province 18 Sept killed five Chinese employees of mining company suspected of trafficking human organs; police 20 Sept arrested two people in connection with killings.

Govt signed peace agreement with former armed opposition group Renamo formally ending hostilities, while in far north suspected Islamist militants continued to kill civilians. After Renamo fighters began to disarm late July, President Nyusi and Renamo leader Ossufo Momade 1 Aug signed agreement to mark official end to hostilities that raged between 1977 and 1992 and rekindled between 2013 and 2016; agreement follows previous deals signed in 1992 and 2015. Leaders 6 Aug signed agreement pledging to keep peace during Oct general elections. Renamo 16 Aug said police and supporters of ruling party Frelimo had since 8 Aug assaulted dozens of Renamo members in Tete, Zambezia, Inhambane and Gaza provinces. Mariano Nhongo, head of Renamo dissident faction Renamo Military Junta, declared himself Renamo leader 19 Aug, said that govt was “on collision course” with his faction if it remained in contact with Renamo leader Momade. Nhongo 28 Aug said elections would not take place and anyone calling for them would be killed. In Cabo Delgado in north, suspected Islamist militants 1 Aug burnt village near Macomia, causing no casualties; Islamic State (ISIS) reportedly claimed attack. Militants 23 Aug killed two near Machava, Nangade district and same day attacked Nangade town, killing three. Militants 27 Aug beheaded two civilians near Quelimane village, Mocimboa da Praia district; same day beheaded four fishermen along Pangane-Macotuco road and one near Simbolongo village in Macomia district. Unidentified assailants 26 Aug killed one in Ulo village, Mocimboa da Praia. Police 24 Aug arrested man in Mocimboa da Praia district for links with insurgents. Unidentified gunmen 26 Aug killed Louis Baziga head of Rwandan diaspora in Mozambique near capital Maputo. Attorney General 9 Aug charged twenty people in connection with govt’s attempt to hide $2bn debt, including son of former President Guebuza, in power when govt made debt deals.