Al-Shabaab upped terrorist attacks and recaptured locations across south-central Somalia: attacked and recaptured several towns in Lower Shabelle, Bay and Jubaland regions, including 8 Feb temporary occupation of Marka and 16 Feb attack on Afgoye, locations lost by Al-Shabaab in 2012. Local clan militia, AMISOM and Somali National Army regained control of some towns from Al-Shabaab in Middle Shabelle during month. Kenya govt claimed its 8 Feb airstrike killed Al-Shabaab Intelligence Chief Mohammed Karatey, denied by Al-Shabaab 18 Feb. Al-Shabaab 26 Feb launched complex attack involving gunmen accompanying vehicle-borne explosives on Mogadishu hotel popular with govt officials and MPs opposite presidency killing at least 30; Al-Shabaab suicide bomber and car bomb 28 Feb hit two locations in Baidoa, Bay region, killing at least 30; suicide bomber 2 Feb detonated on board passenger plane, only bomber killed. AMISOM troop contributing countries 28 Feb held summit in Djibouti to reinforce military operations against Al-Shabaab after months of setbacks. Two killed 1 Feb in anti-govt protest in Puntland’s Bari region; police same day raided home of Bari governor Gallan on suspicion of instigating protest.

Al-Shabaab inflicted heavy losses on AMISOM, while Somali leaders reached agreement on electoral process. In major attack 15 Jan on AMISOM forward base in El-Adde, Gedo region Al-Shabaab claim to have killed some 100 Kenya Defence Forces (KDF). KDF 16-24 Jan launched offensive in Gedo region, senior militant reportedly killed; Somali officials late month accused KDF of killing civilians in airstrikes. KDF 25-26 Jan withdrew from El-Adde town and Badhadhe district following attacks. Other Al-Shabaab attacks in Mogadishu 2-10 Jan killed at least six civilians; 21 Jan attack on Mogadishu restaurant killed twenty civilians, four attackers also killed. Clash between Al-Shabaab and clan militia 20 Jan in Middle Shabelle region left seven dead. Six militants arrested, ammunition recovered 13 Jan in joint AMISOM/Somali National Army (SNA) security operation in Leego town, Lower Shabelle region. Islamic State 12 Jan released another video encouraging Al-Shabaab members to join. Following 24-27 Jan meeting in Mogadishu, Somali political leaders agreed on model for Aug 2016 elections: 275 seats in Lower House (based on current clan-based power-sharing formula) and 54 seats in  Upper House (48 to be shared equally among existing/emerging federal states, six between Puntland and Somaliland). Puntland rejected proposal, protests against it held in Puntland cities, Garowe and Bosaso 28 Jan.

National Consultative Forum 16 Dec issued conclusions on public consultations on process to form new govt in 2016: included preliminary election framework; detailed agreement to be finalised at 10 Jan conference on elections. Increased Al-Shabaab attacks continued including: assassination of journalist 3 Dec and senior intelligence officer 10 Dec in Mogadishu; one UN staff killed 14 Dec in capital; three killed, at least eight wounded 19 Dec in IED explosion in Mogadishu. Dozens killed as deadly clashes with Somali National Army (SNA) and AMISOM forces continued in Lower Shabelle, Hiiraan and Bay regions throughout month. Three militants including senior Al-Shabaab leader Abdirahman Sandhere killed 2 Dec, one 21 Dec in U.S. airstrikes. Senior militant leaders Muhammad Ferey, Muhammad Ibrahim Dhubow surrendered late month. Govt 7 Dec confirmed 6 Nov surrender of U.S.-born Al-Shabaab member following increasingly visible rift within group between supporters of al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS); video published online 7 Dec again called for Al-Shabaab members to join IS. Tensions over federal state formation in Galkayo reduced with ceasefire signed 5 Dec by Galmudug and Puntland officials. Breakaway Upper Bakool region formed 25 Dec. At least twenty killed 12 Dec in inter-clan clash in Beledweyne, Hiiraan, reportedly sparked by tensions over pastoral resources; peace agreement signed 18 Dec; some ten killed 31 Dec. Some 30 killed 12-20 Dec in clashes between rival militias in Lower Shabelle, Puntland regions.

Al-Shabaab launched several successful attacks: fifteen killed including govt officials and military general in attack on Mogadishu hotel 1 Nov; fifteen soldiers killed, three military vehicles seized in 2 Nov ambush on AMISOM convoy in Baledogle; 13 Nov reclaimed strategic town of Fiidow; 14 Nov killed seventeen troops in attack on army base in Kismayo; 28 Nov killed two police in Mogadishu. Interim South West State President Sharif Hassan Adan escaped assassination attempt 11 Nov. AMISOM and Somali National Army operations against Al-Shabaab continued: six Al-Shabaab members killed 2 Nov in Bulo-Berde, Hiiraan region; nine killed, military vehicle and ammunition recovered 6 Nov in Jungal, Gedo region. Suspected drone strike 21 Nov near Balad Amin, Lower Shabelle region reportedly killed at least five Al-Shabaab members. Tensions over federal state formation process continued between and within states including at least 30 killed 22-30 Nov in Galkayo during clashes between Puntland and Galmudug militia.

Second round of national consultative forum held 19-20 Oct to discuss general election when Somali Federal Govt (SFG) mandate ends in 2016; SFG President Hassan underlined commitment to ensure electoral process is broad, inclusive and transparent; regional consultations across six federal states to begin Nov before forum reconvenes mid-Dec. Impasse within SFG continued: parliamentary speaker 13 Oct attempted to diffuse impeachment motion brought against President Hassan in Aug, proposed investigative report instead; several MPs rejected his intervention, stated intention to move forward with impeachment. Tensions over state formation process continued including ongoing dispute between rival factions over Galmudug Interim Administration and clan-based clashes mid-Oct in Hiiraan’s capital Beledweyne that killed ten. Al-Shabaab regained footholds across south-central Somalia regions, but suffered reverses around Diinsoor and Bardere mid-October. High-ranking Al-Shabaab leader Abdulqadir Mumin 23 Oct officially pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS); Al-Shabaab reportedly arrested 30 IS sympathisers.

Instability rose as AMISOM lost ground against Al-Shabaab and factional fighting broke out in the Galmudug Interim Administration (GIA). Al-Shabaab attacks continued including 21 Sept attack on govt convoys leaving Mogadishu’s presidential palace Villa Somalia, killing eleven (including three Polish citizens), 23 injured; 8 Sept attack on military convoys in Gedo; 8 and 13 Sept attacks on govt convoys near Beledweyne. Al-Shabaab 1 Sept launched large-scale attack against AMISOM’s Ugandan-manned base in Janale, Lower Shabelle; Ugandan army said nineteen killed, six soldiers unaccounted for; Al-Shabaab claimed 61 troops killed and significant ammunition stockpiles seized. Al-Shabaab 5-15 Sept regained control of several Lower Shabelle locations; also regained several towns in Bakool, Gedo and Hiiran during month. Conflict continued to escalate between GIA and ASWJ militias who reject GIA including 9 Sept clash in Abudwaq; 73 Somali National Army soldiers defected to GIA. Relations between GIA and Puntland worsened as GIA warned Puntland against antagonistic rhetoric. Puntland Defence Forces from Godad base, near Galkayo, went on strike 17 Sept over unpaid salaries, entered Galkayo and seized Central Bank offices and regional presidential palace, blocked main road from Galkayo to Bacaadweyn; followed similar strikes in Bossaso and Garowe 10 and 13 Sept.

Discussion on selection process for Somali Federal Govt (SFG) MPs when current parliament’s term ends in Aug 2016 continued following late-July two-day High Level Partnership Forum which concluded “one person, one vote elections’ will not be held. Over 100 SFG MPs 12 Aug tabled no-confidence motion against President Hassan Sheikh accusing him of violating constitution, corruption, nepotism and incompetence. Al-Shabaab attacks continued including suicide attack on AMISOM base in Kismayo and bombing in Mogadishu 22 Aug that killed at least twenty; dozens killed 26 Aug in Al-Shabaab attack on govt convoy in south. Process to combine Hiran and Middle Shabelle into new Interim Federal Administration launched 7 Aug, process expected to last four months. President of Interim Juba Administration (IJA) Ahmed Madobe re-elected after IJA mandate ended 1 Aug; local opposition groups including some SFG MPs disputed election process.

Long-anticipated “Operation Juba Corridor” offensive began 19 July with AMISOM and Somali forces deposing Al-Shabaab from two major strongholds, Bardheere (Gedo) and Dinsoor (Bay), 23 and 22 July respectively. Senior Al-Shabaab commanders Ismail Jamhad and Jama Dere and several other militants reportedly killed mid-July in U.S. drone strike near Bardheere. Al-Shabaab attacks continued including simultaneous attacks on two Mogadishu hotels popular with govt officials and parliamentarians: ten killed on 10 July, twenty killed 26 July. Somalia Federal Govt (SFG) President Hassan late July officially acknowledged elections not possible in 2016. New Galmudug Interim State assembly 4 July elected first president, Abdikarim Guled, former security minister and close ally of SFG President Hassan Sheikh. Neighbouring Puntland condemned new administration as SFG plan to destabilise Puntland. Armed Ahlu Sunna Wal Jamaa militia meanwhile declared own president of rival “Galmudug state”. Regional administration leaders Abdiweli Gaas of Puntland and Ahmed Madobe of Interim Juba Administration (IJA) boycotted 29 July High-Level Partnership Forum (HLPF) meeting to review Somalia’s progress in political, security and economic areas due to ongoing disagreements with SFG. SFG 13 July submitted petition to International Court of Justice (ICJ) regarding dispute with Kenya over sea border.

Somali federal parliament 6 June passed no confidence vote against Interim Juba Administration regional assembly, calling it illegal and unconstitutional. Vote welcomed in Digil/Mirifle (Rahanweyn) strongholds in Bay and Bakool regions who claimed Juba assembly selection favoured Ogaden and Marehan (Darood) clans; Somali Federal Govt (SFG) appointed ten-member ministerial committee to resolve impasse. Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama (ASWJ) militias 7 June seized Dhusamareb, capital of Galgaduud region, after govt-allied forces vacated positions. SFG attempts to persuade ASWJ to surrender town unsuccessful; ASWJ announced own process to establish administration for Mudug and Galgaduud regions. Al-Shabaab attacks and clashes with AMISOM/Somali forces continued including late June Al-Shabaab attack on Leego AMISOM base, Lower Shabelle, that reportedly killed some 40 peacekeepers, and 21 June attack on Somali intelligence training centre in Mogadishu. Suspected Al-Shabaab militants assassinated four clan elders accused of collaborating with govt. Somali militias clashed with Ethiopian police in Galgaduud on border with Ethiopia early June, over 45 killed; Ethiopian and Somali govts 7 June intervened to halt hostilities, signed agreement 7 June.

Al-Shabaab attacks continued: militants 24 May captured major town Janaale in Lower Shabelle 24 May after Somali forces vacated positions; 15 May briefly captured Awdegle and Mubarak towns in Lower Shabelle; killed local govt official 6 May in Mogadishu. Interim S-W State President Sharif Hassan 18 May survived assassination when convoy hit landmine in Lower Shabelle; Interim Jubaland Administration and AMISOM forces also targeted by landmines in Lower Juba. Attacks reported 4, 5 and 8 May around Bossasso, Puntland. 21 of 66 Puntland parliamentarians 11 May filed motion of no confidence against Puntland govt. Consultative meeting between Somalia Federal Government (SFG) and interim federal states held 1 May, resulted in plan to integrate govt-controlled militias and regional forces into national army. Cabinet 9 May endorsed members of Independent Electoral Commission, Boundaries and Federation Commission, and Judicial Service Commission. At least 35 reportedly killed late May in clashes near Ethiopia border between clan militia and Ethiopian paramilitary unit.