CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Somalia

Terrorist attacks continued as ethnic clashes in- creased.  Al-Shabaab  recaptured  several  villages  previously liberated by AMISOM and Somali National Army (SNA) offensive; besieged several towns in south-central Somalia, displaced thousands of civilians. Mogadishu court judge killed 17 June by suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen; 3 security forces killed 29 June in capital; at least 2 killed, 7 wounded 30 June in attack on market. 74 killed 1 June in clash between Al-Shabaab and Somali and Ethiopian forces near Ato town, SW; 2 AMISOM peacekeepers killed 26 June in Bula Burde, central Somalia; 80 Al-Shabaab reported killed 23 June in Kenyan airstrikes in Lower Juba region. Al-Shabaab threatened increased attacks during Ramadan; Somali police 23 June announced establishment of special force to maintain security in capital during Ramadan. Clan tensions remained high in Lower Shabelle, Bay, Bakool, and Middle Shabelle: SFG, UNSOM, and IGAD 23 June recognised new federal South West State (SW3) comprised of 3 provinces (Bay, Bakool, and  Lower  Shabelle);  some  members  of Hawiye clan, including Interior Minister Godah Bare, rejected development, continued to push for formation of “Shabelle” state. Others continue to support formation of new SW6 state comprised of 6 provinces including Lower Shabelle; leader threatened “war” should SW3 supporters encroach on territory. 8 killed 3 June and 35 killed 9 June in fighting between Bimal and Hawiye-Habar Gedir clan militias in Marka town, Lower Shabelle region following visit by VP of SW3; at least 12 killed 9 June in ethnic clashes in Galgaduud region.

Africa

Somalia

Al-Shabaab attacks continued: 7 killed 3 May by bomb targeting former govt officials in Mogadishu; 19 killed 12 May by suicide bomber targeting regional administration officials in Baidoa; security minister resigned after 10 killed 24 May in attack on parliament in Mogadishu; govt military chief 28 May survived Mogadishu bomb blast. 40 killed 27 May in clashes between Al- Shabaab and local militia in Aato, Bakool region.130 MPs 8 May signed petition demanding president’s resignation over continuing insecurity. AMISOM offensive slowed: 50 militants killed 20 May in Jilib, Middle Juba region; soldiers 22 May withdrew from some bases in Lower Shabelle region. UNSC 29 May extended UNSOM mission by 1 year; 400-strong UN force deployed 18 May at Mogadishu airport. Intra-factional violence between Marehan clans in BeletHawo, Gedo region killed 6. Al-Shabaab militants and AMISOM clashed near Wajid (Bakool region), 10 killed.

Africa

Somalia

Al-Shabaab attacks intensified in response to continued AMISOM and Somali Federal Govt (SFG) forces’ offensive that has now captured 10 major towns. Al-Shabaab 21 April recaptured Deynunay military base near Baidoa town, Bay region after SFG forces withdrew. 11 killed in Al-Shabaab attack on AMISOM supply trucks in Bakool region 12 April; 4 soldiers, 6 Al-Shabaab members killed 17 April in attack on military convoy in Bay region; journalist and 2 MPs killed 21-22 April in capital; traditional leader killed 21 April in Kismayo. 10 killed 18 April in clash between SFG forces and militia belonging to ousted mayor of Balad town, Middle Shabelle. Unknown gunmen 25 April killed 5 civilians leaving mosque in Muri, Lower Shabelle. UN SRSG Nicholas Kay 23 April denied reports UN would withdraw from Somalia if it suffered significant attacks. 2 UNODC consultants killed 7 April by unidentified gunman in Puntland-controlled Galkaayo airport.

Africa

Somalia

AMISOM and Somali Federal Govt (SFG) forces’ offensive against Al-Shabaab continued; 9 strongholds seized 13-26 March in Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Hiiraan, Galgadud, Lower and Middle Shabelle regions; 20 soldiers killed 18 March in suicide bomb attack in Buuloburto town, Hiiran region. Al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Godane in 9 March video message urged Somalis to wage jihad against foreign troops. Al-Shabaab 28 March executed 3 alleged SFG spies in Barawe town, Lower Shabelle. Puntand President Gas 5 March called for AMISOM assistance to secure southern borders from fleeing Al-Shabaab forces; Al-Shabaab attack 17 March killed senior Puntland defence forces commander in Galgala, near Bossaso. Tensions over formation of new federal state in central Somalia continued: 6-region conference selected president 3 March; 3-region conference held in Baidoa 27 March; another 2-region conference in Afgoye, Lower Shabelle, selected president of “Shabelle State” 10 March. SFG, UN, AU recognised 3-region “South West State’’ encompassing Lower Shabelle, Bay, Bakool as only legitimate process. Unidentified gunmen executed 8 members of Shabelle State delegation 23 March near Burhakaba, Bay region. UN SRSG Nicholas Kay 11 March briefed UNSC on deteriorating security.

Africa

Somalia

Al-Shabaab carried out several high-profile attacks amid beginnings of renewed AMISOM and govt offensive: at least 11 killed, including 2 senior officials, in car bomb and assault on presidential palace 21 Feb; Al-Shabaab carried out series of bombings in Mogadishu 2-3 Feb; at least 12 killed in bomb attack on intelligence HQ in Mogadishu 27 Feb. Car bomb near Mogadishu airport 13 Feb targeting UN convoy killed 7, injured 15 civilians. Al-Shabaab, govt and AMISOM forces clashed across Somalia throughout month. PM Sheikh Ahmed 25 Feb laid out govt security plans to counter terrorism. Kenyan govt 1 Feb announced Sierra Leonean troops will replace departing Kenyan AMISOM forces in Kismayo. Jubaland Interim Administration security head Issa Kamboni killed 17 Feb by Al-Shabaab defector in Kismayo. Ethiopian AMISOM troops began anti-Shabaab security operations in Bay, Bakool regions, as local intra-clan dispute continued over creation of new regional “South West State” administration. Newly appointed president of Puntland autonomous region Abdiweli Gas 4 Feb suggested disputed Sool, Sanag and Ayn regions should be under Puntland administration; ministers early Feb visited disputed areas heightening local tension (see Somaliland). UN Monitoring Group report leaked mid-Feb accused Somali Federal Govt of diverting weapons to Al-Shabaab. Telecom companies early Feb applied Al-Shabaab ordered internet ban in militant controlled south-central Somalia, as well as some govt-controlled areas.

Africa

Somalia

New PM Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed 17 Jan named cabinet, approved by parliament 21 Jan; both President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and PM vowed fresh offensive against Al-Shabaab. 4,395 Ethiopian troops formally merged into AMISOM 22 Jan; U.S. 10 Jan announced secret deployment of small number of military advisers since Oct. Al-Shabaab attacks, bombings continued. Kenyan airstrike on Al-Shabaab training camp in Garbarahey, Gedo region, killed 30 militants 10 Jan; U.S. drone strike 26 Jan reportedly killed 3 Al-Shabaab militants including senior intelligence commander Sahal Carabey. Puntland MPs elected Abdiweli Gas new president of Puntland autonomous region by 33 to 32 votes. Gas unveiled new 46-member cabinet 28 Jan, presidential race losers given crucial portfolios; expected to improve relations with Somali Federal Govt (SFG) but risks increasing tensions with Somaliland. Puntland security forces 25-26 Jan launched attacks against Al-Shabaab bases near Bosaso and Galgala town, killing 7 fighters. AMISOM at SFG request 30 Jan halted 2 conferences in Baidoa aimed at forming autonomous states in south. SFG and Somaliland resumed talks in Turkey 16 Jan (see Somaliland).

Africa

Somalia

PM Shirdon stepped down 2 Dec after losing confidence vote in parliament; President Sheikh appointed Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed new PM, approved by parliament 21 Dec. Al-Shabaab carried out series of attacks including on Mogadishu intelligence base 4 Dec; suicide bomb targeting Puntland troops 5 Dec killed at least 7 and wounded 37 including civilians in Boosaaso; gunmen killed 8, including 5 Kenyan policemen, in Liboi border town 10 Dec. MP Mohamed Warsame Faisal killed 6 Dec by car bomb. At least 10 killed 27 Dec in suspected Al-Shabaab bomb attack targeting govt forces in Mogadishu. Jubaland President Sheikh Ahmed Madobe 7 Dec appointed new cabinet as part of Nov reconciliation agreement; opponents not included. Heightened inter-clan fighting in Lower-, Middle-Shabelle and Hiiraan regions sparked by land disputes and representation struggle; 2 senior Jubaland officials killed 12 Dec in Kismayo, 10 killed 12 Dec in Al-Shabaab attack in Baido, Hiiraan. All 21 presidential opposition candidates 25 Dec approved Puntland President Farole’s appointed vetting committee which will determine outcome of 8 Jan Puntland presidential elections.

Africa

Somalia

PM Shirdon resisted pressure from President Sheikh to resign on grounds of ineffectiveness; AU SR Mahamat Saleh Annadif mediating. Shiridon 17 Nov called on fellow Darod tribe MPs to intervene; parliament 21 Nov requested vote of confidence. UNSC 12 Nov passed resolution approving additional 4,400 AMI- SOM troops to boost fight against Al-Shabaab; Ethiopia said willing to contribute. Clan fighting in Middle Shabelle region 7-8 Nov left 18 dead, 20 wounded near Jowhar; govt troops and gunmen reportedly involved in clashes in Lower Shabelle 17-18 Nov. Al-Shabaab attacks continued: at least 6 killed, 15 wounded in 8 Nov bombing outside Maka Al-Mukarama hotel, Mogadishu; Puntland forces same day repelled assault on Bossaso Central Prison; Al-Shabaab 19 Nov attacked police station in Beledweyne town, 19 killed. Jubaland Reconciliation Conference in Mogadishu 3-6 Nov ended in agreement between Somalia govt, Jubaland interim govt and rival parties on ending hostilities and federalism arrangements. At least 8 killed 28 Nov in clashes between Khatumo militia and Puntland govt troops in Taleh, Sool region.

Africa

Somalia

U.S. special forces 5 Oct raided home of al-Shabaab commander Abduldkadir “Ikrima” in Barawe, Lower Shabelle region, failed to capture him. U.S. drone strike 28 Oct killed 2 senior al-Shabaab members in Middle Juba region. Targeted bombing by Kenyan military 31 Oct destroyed al-Shabaab training camp in Dinsoor region, estimated 300 killed. Suicide bomb targeting Ethiopian troops killed at least 17 including 4 Ethiopian soldiers, wounded over 30 in Beledweyne 19 Oct. AU 12 Oct agreed to increase AMISOM troops by 6,000; decision awaiting UNSC approval. Al-Shabaab clashes with govt/AMISOM forces continued. Govt 7 Oct declared all oil exploration permits signed with Puntland and Somaliland regions invalid, companies should negotiate with govt.

Africa

Somalia

Al-Shabaab militant group 20-24 Sept laid siege to Kenyan mall, killing dozens (see Kenya). Regional Jubaland president Sheikh Ahmed Madobe’s motorcade attacked in Kismayo by al-Shabaab 13 Sept; Madobe survived but at least 20 killed, many injured. 15 killed, over 40 injured 7 Sept in al-Shabaab attack on Mogadishu restaurant. Western-born al-Shabaab militants Abu Mansoor al-Amriki and Osama al-Britani reported killed amid ongoing reports of increasing factionalism within group. EU pledged €650mn for reconstruction at 16 Sept New Deal conference.

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