CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Somalia

President Sheikh 6 Oct selected political newcomer Abdi Farah Shirdon as PM; MPs 17 Oct unanimously approved appointment. International community including visiting Italian FM Giulio Terzi welcomed appointment, commended conclusion of transition period. Al-Shabaab threatened attacks on Kenya and UK, banned aid group Islamic Relief from territory. Negotiations to establish permanent governing structure for former al-Shabaab stronghold Kismayo ongoing. Al-Shabaab attacks in Mogadishu, Kismayo and newly-liberated areas continued including 28 Oct killing of Somali general. Puntland security forces mid-month reportedly seized al-Shabaab arms shipment from Yemen in Qandala coastal town. Poet Warsame Shire Awale and female civilian shot dead 30 Oct in Mogadishu; al-Shabaab defector killed in Mogadishu same day. UN human rights chief Pillay 30 Oct expressed alarm at assaults on media workers after 3 killed during Oct, bringing total to 18 killed this year.ƒƒ “Somalia MPs approve Shirdon as the new prime minister” BBC, 17 Oct. 2012. New Crisis Group Africa Briefing N°92, Assessing Turkey’s Role in Somalia, 8 Oct. 2012. As a new Somali government is established, Turkey’s engagement in the war-ravaged country must be thoughtful and carefully coordinated so as not to lead to yet another failed international intervention. Somaliland Journalist killed 23 Oct by gunmen in disputed Sool region amid growing concerns over harassment, arrest of journalists in Somaliland; UN SRSG Augustine Mahiga called for investigation. 4 wounded 23 Oct by landmine in Sool region; governor said al-Shabaab militants suspected.

Africa

Somalia

New President Hassan Sheikh, chairman of the Peace and Development Party, elected 10 Sept. President Sheikh and Kenyan FM Sam Orgeri 12 Sept escaped al-Shabaab bomb attack on Mogadishu hotel, 8 others killed; MP Mistafa Maalim shot dead by gunmen 22 Sept in Mogadishu. UNSC 18 Sept welcomed end of transition, expressed concern over financial mismanagement. AU/Kenyan advance on al-Shabaab stronghold Kismayo continued throughout month; military spokesman 18 Sept said al-Shabaab leaving town, al-Shabaab denied; Kenyan forces 28 Sept claimed town captured. Some 200 al-Shabaab militants reportedly surrendered to AU forces 23 Sept. 4 journalists, at least 12 others killed 20-21 Sept in Mogadishu; 2 journalists killed 27-28 Sept.

Africa

Somalia

National Security and Stabilisation Plan establishing priorities for integration, strengthening of security, justice sectors signed 8 Aug. 211 majority new MPs sworn in 20 Aug marking end of Transitional Federal Govt (TFG); UNSC 30 Aug praised meeting of new Federal Parliament, 28 Aug election of Speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari, urged election of President without delay; UN SRSG to Somalia Augustine Mahiga 25 Aug expressed “deep concern” over ongoing delays to choosing all 275 MPs. TFG President Sharif 25 Aug announced Supreme Court to review candidates rejected as MPs by Technical Selection Committee on grounds of ties to armed groups; Court determined they could join parliament. AMISOM, pro-govt forces 27 Aug captured Merca port; 29 Aug killed 42 militants in clash at Aglibah town.

Africa

Somalia

National Constituent Assembly 25 July began 9-day meeting on draft constitution. UN Monitoring Group report to UNSC documented high-level corruption, diversion of humanitarian aid, continued charcoal export despite UN ban, alleged Transitional Federal Govt (TFG) President Sharif gave pirate kingpin diplomatic passport to shield him from arrest; President Sharif criticised Group, said Coordinator Matt Bryden “against the restoration of peace in Somalia”, refuted allegations; PM said allegations “absolutely and demonstrably false”. 3 aid workers kidnapped 11 July in semi-autonomous Puntland region. Puntland security forces 21 July said boat carrying explosives, weapons from Yemen confiscated 20 July, Yemeni arrested; Security Ministry 31 July announced 53 terrorism, piracy suspects arrested. At least 20 al-Shabaab militants reportedly killed 12 July in Kenyan airstrikes, Gedo region; scores killed 28-29 July when govt troops clashed with al-Shabaab in Gedo; 4 killed 27 July in 2 bomb attacks, Baidoa. Al- Shabaab 22 July executed 3 men accused of being UK, U.S. spies.

Africa

Somalia

Transitional Federal Government (TFG), regional govts, Ahlu Sunna 22 June signed agreement in Nairobi on proposed constitution; Independent Federal Constitutional Commission (IFCC), tasked with drafting constitution, 25 June rejected Nairobi agreement, declared IFCC version only valid constitution; TFG Council of Ministers stated IFCC mandate ended, released Nairobi draft constitution. Traditional elders 20 June recommended enlargement of new Parliament from 225 to 275 seats, as well as creation of Upper Chamber for elders; PM rejected proposal, said elders’ mandate limited to selecting MPs, members of constituent assembly. SRSG for Somalia 13 June said UN plans to send international observers to elders’ meeting tasked with selecting delegates to constituent assembly. TFG President Sharif 20 June announced intention to stand for new term in office when term expires in 2 months; some 20 candidates reportedly plan to run including TFG President Sharif, PM Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, Parliament Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan. Sporadic attacks on AU, Ethiopian forces continued throughout month. Ethiopian troops, Ahlu Sunna fighters reportedly withdrew from Al Bur, central Somalia, early June. Kenyan forces 7 June shelled Kismayo port city; AU, TFG forces 22 June extended areas under control, took Balad town.

Africa

Somalia

UN, AU and IGAD 1 May issued rare joint statement expressing continued concern at threat posed to transition by Somali spoilers. Signatories of Mogadishu Roadmap including TFG President Sharif met 21-23 May in Addis Ababa to discuss changes to draft constitution, overall mandate and new deadlines; agreed to guidelines for Constituent Assembly and Federal Parliament. Elders meeting to choose 825 delegates to Constituent Assembly opened 5 May. Some 300 civil society members including 135 traditional elders met 26-30 May in Istanbul to discuss Somalia’s future in preparation for 31 May-1 June conference. 7 killed 1 May in al-Shabaab suicide attack targeting group of politicians visiting Galgadud region. AMISOM, Transitional Federal Govt (TFG) forces 27 May captured strategic town of Afgooye, near Mogadishu; President Sharif ’s convoy ambushed 29 May while visiting area, 1 soldier killed, 6 injured. At least 9 killed 7 May in al-Shabaab attack on AU forces, Mogadishu; at least 7 killed 19 May in bomb, grenade attacks. 6 killed 30 May by roadside bomb in Galkayo town, Puntland. EU 15 May conducted first onshore strikes against pirates near Haradhere town.

Africa

Somalia

Suicide bomb attack targeting PM at National Theatre reopening ceremony 4 April killed 6, wounded dozens including govt minister, sparking suspicion of inside involvement, concern over security lapse. AMISOM 5 April deployed troops in Baidoa marking first time forces dispatched outside Mogadishu; at least 12 civilians killed 9 April in al-Shabaab bomb targeting troops. AU 20 April reportedly took control of al-Shabaab bases on out- skirts of Mogadishu including Deynile airstrip. Journalist killed 5 April in Beletwein, Hiran region. Interim President Sharif 24 April announced intention to run for presidential office at end of transitional period in August 2012; TFG 25 April announced govt in final stages of adopting new constitution. Al-Shabaab 27 April threatened attack on 135 Somali traditional clan elders, gathered late April in Mogadishu to select Constituent Assembly delegates before formation of new parliament. Puntland President Farole 11 April said al-Shabaab militants have moved into semi-autonomous region. Representatives at Puntland’s Constitutional Convention 18 April voted to adopt new draft constitution.

Africa

Somalia

Suicide bomber 14 March killed 6 at presidential compound, Mogadishu; 6 killed 19 March when mortars fired at Presidential Palace hit IDP camp, al-Shabaab claimed responsibility. Scores of fighters killed 10 March in al-Shabaab offensive on Ethiopian soldiers in Yurkud, key strategic town; dozens killed 20 March in clashes between Ahlu Sunna militia and al-Shabaab in Dusamareb, Galgadud region. Ethiopian troops 22-23 March captured key strategic Hudur, El Bur towns; AU 30 March said al-Shabaab stronghold of Deynile captured; Kenyan warplanes bombed al-Shabaab bases throughout month. EU 8 March pledged additional €100mn AMISOM funding to 2013; 23 March extended counter-piracy mission to 2014, for first time allowing attacks on land. At least 9 killed 3 March in al-Shabaab attack in Puntland prompting fears of resurgent militant activity in region. Journalist shot dead 4 March by gunmen in Galkayo marking 4th journalist assassinated in 4 months; Shabelle radio director shot, injured 25 March.

Africa

Somalia

Al-Shabaab 9 Feb announced merger with al-Qaeda; Transitional Federal Govt (TFG) 13 Feb called for lifting of UN arms embargo. Puntland Galaga militants 26 Feb declared al-Qaeda allegiance. UNSG Ban, representatives of over 50 govts including UK PM Cameron and U.S. Sec of State Clinton, Somali leaders 23 Feb met in London to discuss conflict; agreed on need for greater coordination, establishment of joint financial management board and local stability fund to support sub-national administrations. UNSC 22 Feb agreed to authorise AMISOM troop increase to 17,731. 5 reported killed, 6 injured 27 Feb in bomb blast at Mogadishu football match; 9 soldiers, 4 al-Shabaab militants killed 28 Feb in heavy fighting in Lower Juba region. Puntland administration 13 Feb announced key al-Shabaab explosives expert captured in Golis Mountains; at least 6 senior al-Shabaab commanders and al-Qaeda-linked foreign operatives reportedly killed in 24 Feb airstrikes, southern Somalia; senior al-Qaeda leader killed 27 Feb in Mogadishu. TFG President, presidents of breakaway Galmudug, Puntland regions and pro-govt Ahlu Sunna militia leader 18 Feb signed accord on nature of parliamentary system to replace TFG.

Africa

Somalia

At least 60 killed, 50 injured 6 Jan in Kenyan air assault on al-Shabaab, southern Somalia; 14 killed 15 Jan in airstrike on al-Shabaab rebel base in Jilib. Reported U.S. drone strike 22 Jan killed senior al-Qaeda official near Mogadishu. Ethiopian troops continued to cross border into central region early Jan following 31 Dec capture of strategic town Beledweyne, Hiran region; suicide truck bomb exploded 24 Jan at military base in Beledweyne; al-Shabaab claimed 33 Ethiopian soldiers killed. AMISOM forces 20 Jan captured 3 al-Shabaab bases in Mogadishu. U.S. forces 25 Jan rescued 2 hostages, killed 9 kidnappers near Gadaado, central Somalia. Radio Shabelle director shot dead 28 Jan. Govt 5 Jan launched investigation after 3 MPs hospitalised 4 Jan in parliament fight over election of new speaker; 4 Jan election of Madobe Nunow denounced by president, parliamentary crisis far from over. UNSRSG Augustine Mahiga re-established UNPOS office in Mogadishu after 17 years absence. Govt Jan 31 requested UN lift arms embargo.

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