Scores dead in fighting between Islamists and govt forces in South and Centre. 123 reportedly killed in clashes between pro-govt Islamic group and hardline Islamists in Webho town north of Mogadishu early-June; Islamist militia Hizbul Islam denied reports leader Aweys killed in attacks. Security minister Omar Hashi Aden and at least 34 others killed in 18 June suicide attack on hotel in Beledweyne. In Mogadishu: 22 killed including police Chief Colonel Said in heavy fighting 17 June, director of Shabelle radio station murdered. 6 AlShabaab fighters killed in attack on govt checkpoint north of capital in Galgalato 14 June. UN reported some 122,000 civilians displaced from Mogadishu since fighting escalated early-May. Parliamentary speaker 20 June announced “state of emergency”, called for external assistance; call backed by AU Chair Ping 21 June. Ethiopia responded announcing readiness to return but only with international mandate. AlShabaab threatened to “invade” Kenya unless it reduces its heavy troop presence on Somali border. EU 15 June authorized extension of anti-piracy operation Atalanta to end- 2010, expansion to Seychelles.

Mogadishu rocked by intense fighting, as alliance of anti-govt Islamist factions led by influential Islamist leader Aweys launched large-scale offensive in and around capital from 7 May, taking control of large parts of city and nearby strategic points Mahadday and Jowhar; mortars fired into presidential palace 23 May. Some 200 civilians killed, hundreds wounded, over 46,000 displaced in heavy shelling into residential areas. Violence coupled with severe drought fuelled fears of greater humanitarian crisis. Followed earlier moves by Aweys to cement Islamist alliance. UNSC 15 May called for investigation into govt allegations Eritrea providing military support to al-Shabaab, denied by Asmara (see Eritrea). UNSC members in 8-day Africa mission met with AU envoys, expressed concern over threat of violence to transitional govt, presence of foreign fighters. Reports of sizable incursions by Ethiopian troops into Hiran region, denied by interior ministry and Addis Ababa. Govt mid-month called on international community to support establishment of anti-piracy coastguard. Piracy conference in Malaysia ended 19 May with call on UN to consider joint off-coast security mechanism, in apparent pull- back from proposals for an international maritime force. 200 pirates in Puntland late-month renounced criminal activities, reportedly under pressure from local leaders.

Influential Islamic cleric Sheikh Aweys returned 23 Apr after 2 year exile. Considerable uncertainty over political implications; in fiery speech to supporters in Mogadishu 24 Apr ruled out talks with govt until “bacteria” of AMISOM troops leave. Sharia law unanimously endorsed by parliament mid- month. Govt 24 Apr announced country’s first national budget since 1991. Security improving in Mogadishu, marked by return of 60,000 refugees since Jan, but targeted attacks continue: 8 killed by mortars near parliament late month; 2 senior Islamic Courts Union members, 1 MP assassinated by suspected al-Shabaab militants working to hit list of govt supporters. Nearly 30 killed in clashes between pro- and anti-govt Islamist factions in Beledweyne 20-21 Apr. Increase in piracy early month, indicating spread of attacks southeast; 6 killed, several arrested in high-profile release operations by French, U.S. and Russian forces. Somaliland authorities sentenced 9 pirates arrested off Somaliland coast to 15-20 years; several await trial in Kenya. At 23 Apr international donors conference states pledged $213m in support to national security force and AMISOM.

President Sharif on inaugural tour mid-month to 4 regional states, reportedly securing assistance in govt, military capacity building. Cabinet 10 March endorsed Sharif’s call for installation of Sharia Law; now passes to parliament. Sharp upsurge in tensions between al-Shabaab and pro-govt Islamic group Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca; 11 killed in fierce fighting from 15 March as latter took control of Wabho, north of Mogadishu; 6 more killed in central Bay region late month. Interior Minister wounded, guard killed in 26 March bombing attack and 8 killed in fighting between police and al-Shabaab 30 March, as violence continued in Mogadishu. Al-Qaeda 20 March urged Somalis to rise against “apostate” Sharif govt. Govt 20 March formally called on UNSC to deploy peacekeepers, raising tensions in Mogadishu and amid signs of intra-govt divisions. AMISOM bolstered by 3rd Ugandan battalion late month; fears of corresponding surge in al-Shabaab attacks fuelled by reports group increasing arms imports. Several piracy attacks over month but levels still down since 2008.

New President Sheikh Sharif 9 Feb toured Mogadishu, said open for peace talks with groups opposed to Djibouti Agreement, ready to introduce sharia law, form inclusive govt. Sharif 13 Feb appointed Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke as PM – Canadian citizen and Marjeteen sub- clan member, son of president killed in 1969 coup. Choice endorsed by parliament, met with widespread approval apart from Islamist rebels. Sharmarke said he would seek dialogue with Al-Shabaab to end violence, 21 Feb appointed 32-member cabinet; 2 members subsequently resigned due to clan politics. But Al-Shabaab 12 Feb repeated opposition to Sharif, vowed to continue attacking AU forces, and 22 Feb killed 11 AU Burundi peacekeepers in attack on Mogadishu base. Fierce fighting in Mogadishu from 24 Feb between Interim Government of National Unity troops, backed by AMISOM and newly-formed insurgent umbrella grouping, Hizb al-Islam (Islamic Party). Clashes left at least 80 people killed before 27 Feb truce. Reports throughout month Ethiopian troops back in Somalia; Ethiopia denied. Prominent journalist shot dead in Mogadishu 4 Feb by unidentified gunmen; Islamists 12 Feb fired mortar bombs at UN-chartered supply ship, killing 4. In East Africa tour starting 24 Feb in Djibouti, Iranian President Ahmedinejad met Somali PM Sharmarke and pledged to support new govt. Ukrainian tank carrier captured by pirates Sept 2008 released early Feb.

Progress on Djibouti agreement with expansion of Parliament and election of moderate ARS leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed as president. Ethiopian troop withdrawal resulted in power vacuum, fighting between Islamist groups. Ethiopian withdrawal from Mogadishu completed 15 Jan, celebrated by residents; Islamist groups took control of 4 of 6 vacated bases. Ethiopian withdrawal completed 26 Jan with departure from Baidoa; Al-Shabaab same day seized parliament building, installed Sharia law. Violence increased after withdrawal, including 20 Jan Islamist attacks on Mogadishu police stations killing 19; 24 Jan suicide bomb on AU base killing at least 15, mostly civilians. Early Jan fighting in Galgadud region between Al-Shabaab and other Islamists killed over 50, caused 50,000 to flee. MPs meeting in Djibouti voted 26 Jan to expand parliament, adding 275 MPs in line with Nov Djibouti agreement – 200 for ARS, 75 for civil society; 28 Jan swore in 149 ARS MPs, extended TFG mandate 2 yrs; 30 Jan elected ARS leader Sheikh Sharif new president. UNSC 16 Jan expressed provisional intent to set up UN peacekeeping force, pending further review of security situation; subject to further decision by 1 June. Also urged AU to increase AMISOM from 3,200 to 8,000, requested UNSG Ban set up trust fund, develop force mandate by 15 Apr. 2 WFP staff shot dead 6, 8 Jan, prompting WFP to threaten withdrawal.

Resignation of President Yusuf and Ethiopian troop withdrawal fuelled fears of Islamist ascendancy, govt collapse and increasing violence, but also possibly removed key obstacles to inclusive peace. After criticising peace deal signed by TFG and Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) as too clan-based, President Yusuf mid-Dec tried to sack PM Nur Hassan Hussein and name new PM Guled. But parliament 15 Dec voted Hussein sacking illegal, 16 Dec unanimously endorsed Djibouti peace agreement, 17 Dec voted to impeach Yusuf as obstacle to peace. IGAD 21 Dec announced sanctions on Yusuf; following international pressure Yusuf 29 Dec resigned. Elections due within 30 days, parliament speaker Madobe named interim president. Deadly violence continued in Mogadishu and elsewhere between Al-Shabaab and govt/Ethiopian troops and between Islamist militias, intensifying following Yusuf's resignation. Despite U.S. pressure, UNSG Ban 16 Dec ruled out UN peacekeeping mission to Somalia; suggested bolstering AMISOM. AU 22 Dec agreed to keep its peacekeeping force in Somalia for further 2 months; also urged Ethiopia to delay troop withdrawal until further AU troops deployed. Ethiopia late Dec/early Jan started troop withdrawal. UNSC 2 Dec renewed June resolution giving navies right to pursue pirates into Somali waters; 16 Dec approved resolution allowing countries to pursue Somali pirates on land with TFG permission. Sharp Dec reduction in piracy incidents reported.

PM Nur Hassan and President Yusuf failed to agree on new cabinet or form new transitional govt by 12 Nov Inter- Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) deadline. 4th round of peace talks opened 22 Nov in Djibouti, following 21 Nov passing of June Djibouti agreement deadline for Ethiopian troop withdrawal; talks concluded 26 Nov with agreement to create 200 new parliament seats, incl 75 reserved for civil society. But expectations low and hardline Islamist groups not party to deal. UNSC 20 Nov agreed to impose sanctions on those contributing to Somalia violence and instability. Ethiopia 28 Nov announced plans to withdraw troops by end-2008. Violence continued: Al-Shabaab made further gains during month, including port towns of Merka and Barawe; 40 civilians reported killed, 70 injured in late-month clashes in Mogadishu. International outcry over late Oct stoning to death of 13-yr old rape victim accused of adultery in Al-Shabaab-controlled Kismayo. Somali piracy activity spiralling, with 17 Nov capture of Saudi oil supertanker signalling increasing pirate capacities; EU 10 Nov launched 1st anti-piracy naval mission. Puntland region presidential candidates rejected govt-appointed election commission ahead of Jan 2009 elections.

Violence continued, with dozens killed in Mogadishu during month; Transitional Federal Govt (TFG) stronghold of Baidoa under Al-Shabaab attack; UN driver killed in southern port Merca 7 Oct. Some 450 Burundian AU peacekeepers arrived in Mogadishu by plane 11 Oct. Further reports of govt forces’ defections to Islamic Courts. TFG and faction of Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) 26 Oct signed ceasefire in Djibouti and agreed to national unity govt, dependent on Ethiopian troop withdrawal by early 2009 and AU/UN force. TFG given series of conditions to fulfil by Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) meeting in Nairobi 29 Oct; ARS representatives also in attendance. U.S. late Oct called for extension of TFG mandate, set to expire within 6 months. Ethiopia’s opposition increased pressure on govt to withdraw troops from Somalia; calls rejected by PM Meles, but said would adhere to withdrawal schedule. Fighting reported between Islamic Courts and Al-Shabaab 19 Oct near Mogadishu. Kenya announced 9 Oct will train up to 10,000 Somali troops, drawing threat of attack from Somali Islamists. Stand-off continued between pirates of Ukrainian tank carrier and growing international naval presence. EU 2 Oct agreed to establish anti- piracy operation off Somali coast, to deploy Dec, planned to last a year. UNSC 7 Oct resolution called for states to combat piracy; NATO sent 7 warships mid-month. Woman stoned to death 27 Oct in Islamist-held Kismayo. Some 30 killed in near- simultaneous suicide car bombings in Bossaso (Puntland) and Hargeisa (Somaliland) 29 Oct (see Somaliland).

Devastating violence continued between Islamists and AU, Ethiopian troops with scores killed, including 2 peacekeepers 14-15 Sept; 30 civilians 22 Sept in Bakara market. UNHCR reported thousands fleeing Mogadishu. Ethiopian troops 5 Sept shot some 20 civilians in Bardale, prompting TFG district commissioner to switch allegiance to Islamists. Al-Shabaab 16 Sept warned all flights to Mogadishu airport must cease; 19 Sept attacked landing AU supply plane. MP assassinated 9 Sept. Reports 7 Sept of Somali soldiers, Ethiopian officer switching allegiance to militants. International Contact Group for Somalia met 16 Sept in Djibouti seeking diplomatic, financial support for peace process. Djibouti negotiations between govt and opposition Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia on implementation of 18 Aug agreement disrupted 21 Sept by dispute over Ethiopian troop withdrawal. UNSC stated 4 Sept would consider peacekeeping force subject to improved security situation, political progress; asked UNSG Ban to report back with contingency plan in 60 days. Ethiopian PM Meles 21 Sept said troops will remain in Somalia to support TFG. Rift opened 23 Sept between President Yusuf and parliament over latter’s rejection of Yusuf call for reinstatement of resigned cabinet ministers. In Islamist-controlled Kismayo, key Islamic Courts movement figure 5 Sept rejected new local administration as not sufficiently inclusive of local clans. Further incidents of piracy reported, including 25 Sept seizure of Ukrainian ship carrying 33 tanks.