CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Somalia

Violence flared again in Mogadishu at month end with clashes between Ethiopian/Somali troops and Islamist rebels. At least 20 killed, over 30,000 reportedly fled city. PM Ali Geedi resigned 29 October after continued rift with President Abdullahi Yusuf and speculation of imminent vote of no confidence. Yusuf appointed interim successor - Salim Aliyow Ibrow - from Digil-Mirifle clan. Ugandan peacekeepers attacked with mortars while guarding Mogadishu port 24 October, same day 8 died when bus hit landmine; gun battles erupted 16 October. Aid temporarily halted after UN’s WFP head in Mogadishu arrested, then released 23 October. Attacks on journalists increased including assassination of acting head of Radio Shabelle 19 October.

Africa

Somalia

Violence continued in Mogadishu as Islamist- dominated opposition held conference in Asmara 6-13 September. Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) formed, with Islamic Courts Union leader, Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, elected chair; though divisions between Islamists and ex-MPs exist. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki pledged support 14 September. Alliance gave 2-week ultimatum for Ethiopian troops to withdraw and said would target any on Somali soil. In symbol of Arab support, Saudi King Abdullah oversaw 16 September Jeddah signing of accord agreed at August National Reconciliation Conference in Mogadishu between several Somali factions and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) PM Gedi and President Yusuf called for Arab-African UN-monitored force to replace foreign troops supporting TFG. Regular clashes in Mogadishu in month: 7 killed first night of Ramadan, when curfew lifted for first time since June. Government security forces raided independent Radio Shabelle compound 15 September. Unknown assailants killed local employee of UN World Health Organization 11 September in Galgadud, central Somalia. New UN SRSG, Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, appointed 12 September; in first trip to Mogadishu 22 September, called humanitarian and human rights situation “worst on the continent”.

Africa

Somalia

Violence surged, particularly in Mogadishu, despite ongoing National Reconciliation Congress. Talks ended 30 August with 1 delegate, top clan leader, shot dead 18 August. Asmara conference of opposition groups due 1 September postponed. Leader of Islamic Courts Union, Sheikh Aweys, vowed to step up insurgency against Ethiopian troops and Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Deadly attacks in capital near daily: local rights group reported 13 August over 31 killed in 24 hours; police officers and stations repeatedly targeted; at least 3 journalists killed. UN warned 13 August over 600,000 suffering severe malnutrition. UNSC approved 6- month extension of AMISOM mandate 20 August: Uganda promised further 250 troops; reconnaissance mission end month for long-awaited Burundian deployment. AU Chair Konare and French FM Kouchner called for speedy transition to UN force; assessment mission to be sent within 30 days. Inter-clan clashes killed over 30, displaced up to 12,000 in central regions Hiiraan and Galgadud. Rift deepened between Puntland Administration and TFG over oil bill.

Africa

Somalia

National Reconciliation Congress began 15 July in Mogadishu. Security worsened there after congress started - UN reported 10,000 fled city. Chairman of Reconciliation Committee invited opposition based in Asmara, but chairman of ICU Sheikh Sharif rejected clan-based process. AU Peace and Security Council extended AMISOM mandate for 6 months; still to be approved by UN. UNSC unanimously adopted resolution 1766 23 July extending mandate of group of experts monitoring flow of arms by 6 months. Group issued report stating Eritrea had sent weapons to the Shabaab insurgents during monitoring period; denied by Eritrea.

Africa

Somalia

Violence escalated across country. Blasts in Mogadishu, Baidoa and widespread attacks targeting Transitional Federal Government (TFG) officials or troops also killed numerous civilians. Government imposed curfew in Mogadishu mid-June in response to escalating violence. 5 killed in Baidoa cinema explosion 15 June. Police opened fire on crowd waiting for food aid in Mogadishu 26 June killing 5. Clan clashes in Kismayo led TFG to threaten military intervention. Burundi promised deployment of peacekeepers in July; pledges by other countries still unfulfilled. UN Security Council stressed need to plan possible UN takeover from AU. Somali National Reconciliation Congress postponed to 15 July. Chairman of Reconciliation Committee contacted remnants of Islamic Courts in Doha and Asmara; positive step in terms of inclusion at Congress. Delay seen as stalling by TFG to avoid loss of power while Islamists refused to participate until Ethiopian troops leave.

Africa

Somalia

UN’s chief humanitarian officer, John Holmes, called Somali humanitarian and refugee crisis worst in world. Up to 400,000 displaced by fighting between ousted Islamists and clan militias against Ethiopian troops and Transitional Federal Government forces. Some displaced reportedly returning to Mogadishu. UN food aid temporarily halted after ship attacked by pirates 19 May. PM Ali Mohammed Ghedi escaped unhurt after his convoy targeted by bomb in Mogadishu 17 May. U.S. and AU urged Ethiopia to keep forces in Somalia until full deployment of AU peacekeepers: Ethiopia and Uganda called for full deployment of AMISOM as pledged troops from Burundi, Ghana and Nigeria yet to arrive. 4 Ugandan peacekeepers killed by roadside bomb 16 May marking first targeted attack of peacekeepers. Ethiopian troops killed 5 civilians in aftermath of roadside bomb attack on army convoy in western town of Belet Weyne 30 May. National Reconciliation Congress to begin in Mogadishu 14 June amid concern over independence of organising committee and participant selection.

Africa

Somalia

Fighting raged in Mogadishu after tentative ceasefire early month. Transitional Federal Government and Ethiopian troops stepped up offensive against Islamist insurgents and Hawiye clan militia 18 April. Violence appeared to level off and PM Ali Mohamed Ghedi claimed victory 26 April, but situation fragile. Some 400 killed in 9 days, up to 400,000 displaced since February. Heavy clashes in southern port town Kismayo 23 April between army troops that splintered into clan militias left up to 25 dead. Deputy PM Hussein Aideed of Hawiye clan in Eritrea with other MPs 19 April: announced alliance opposed to Ethiopia’s presence in Mogadishu, accused troops of genocide. Somali parliament voted 17 April to expel MPs in Asmara. Peace talks between Hawiye clan elders and Ethiopian commanders still pending. National reconciliation congress set 16 April postponed. Still only 1200 Ugandans of 8000 planned AU peacekeepers deployed. Ugandan killed 31 March after mortars hit AU base.

Africa

Somalia

Mogadishu in turmoil as fighting escalated. Over 30 killed in 2 days mid-March and bodies of Ethiopian soldiers dragged through streets. After attempt at truce, fighting erupted again 29 March in what ICRC said was heaviest in Mogadishu in 15 years. Former leader of Council of Somali Islamic Courts Aweys said he considers AU peacekeepers enemies. Ugandan deployment as part of AU AMISOM mission began 6 March - approx. 1500 Ugandan troops now in Mogadishu. Kampala called for deployment of other peacekeeping troops: Nigeria pledged to deploy 850 by mid-April; Ghana, Burundi and Malawi yet to give timeframe. President Yusuf continued to consolidate power of Darod clan, further polarizing Hawiye, particularly Habr Gedir Ayr sub-clan, leading to increased Hawiye support for ongoing insurgency in Mogadishu. Transitional Federal Government (TFG) announced intention 11 March to pacify the city in 30 days through forced disarmament. Yusuf announced broad National Reconciliation Conference to begin 16 April, but doubts persist over whether TFG will include Islamists as necessary to promote lasting unity and reconciliation.

Africa

Somalia

Security situation deteriorated with daily clashes between Transitional Federal Government (TFG)/Ethiopian forces and insurgents. AU agreed 2 February to send peacekeeping troops; UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1744 20 February authorising 6-month AU peacekeeping mission (AMISOM) and calling on UNSG to investigate possible UN mission to follow. Uganda, Nigeria and Burundi pledged to deploy peacekeeping troops March/April: EU, U.S. and UK pledged financial support. Despite promises of withdrawal Ethiopian troops reportedly reinforced positions in much of south-central Somalia. PM Gedi reshuffled cabinet 7 February ahead of National Reconciliation conference to be held in March. Gedi refused to negotiate with leaders of Council of Somali Islamic Courts, 4 of whom, including Sheikh Sharrif Ahmed, have taken refuge in Yemen, though President Yusuf said he would talk to moderate elements.

Africa

Somalia

Situation remained unstable after Council of Somali Islamic Courts’ (CSIC) end-December defeat by Ethiopian and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) troops. TFG now faced with task of reconstituting cabinet as genuine government of national unity, including credible leaders from communities that backed CSIC. Ethiopia said its forces began phased withdrawal, but discussions ongoing over proposed 8,000-strong AU peacekeeping force to maintain security with Burundi, Uganda, Ghana, Nigeria and Malawi only pledging half. U.S. launched airstrikes in south 8 and 23 January, targeting “senior al-Qaeda operatives”. Daily violence continued with attacks on Ethiopian and TFG positions in Mogadishu, including presidential palace and airport. PM Ali Mohamed Gedi imposed martial law in areas under TFG control from 30 January, beginning with curfew in southern town of Baidoa. TFG requested Kenya hand over CSIC leader, Sheikh Sharrif Ahmed, who surrendered to Kenyan authorities 21 January. Key warlords signed agreement with TFG to hand in weapons and integrate fighters into army. Parliament voted out Speaker prominent in past efforts to engage CSIC in dialogue.

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