Full-scale conflict erupted between Council of Somali Islamic Courts (CSIC) and Ethiopian-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) after CSIC gave Ethiopia 7-day ultimatum 12 December to withdraw troops. Heavy fighting initially reported around southern Daynuunay region 19 December. Islamist advances against TFG/Ethiopian positions around Baidoa met by Ethiopian ground and air offensive. Ethiopia admitted launching “self-defensive measures” against CSIC 24 December. Ethiopian and TFG forces, with heavy artillery and air support, made rapid advance through CSIC-held territory to force Islamist retreat from Mogadishu 28 December after 6 months in control of capital. Order quickly collapsed as rival militias rushed to rearm ahead of TFG return and faction leaders returned to take control of their fiefdoms. CSIC grouped in southern stronghold of Kismaayo before retreating 31 December towards Kenyan border after further clashes with TFG/Ethiopian troops and reportedly after local clan elders withdrew support. CSIC leaders threatened to wage “long war” against Ethiopian presence. Fighting along 400km front left death toll estimated in hundreds; UN estimates 30,000 displaced.

U.S. submitted draft UNSC resolution recommending IGAD peacekeeping force to support Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and monitor compliance with agreements reached in Khartoum, but any deployment without prior agreement by Council of Somali Islamic Courts (CSIC) widely seen as likely to generate full- scale war. CSIC fighters clashed with Ethiopian troops backing TFG in Adale and Qasah-Omane near Baidoa 19/20 November; 6 Ethiopians reported killed. CSIC claimed 30 November ambush killed 20 Ethiopian soldiers. Talks between CSIC and TFG in Khartoum collapsed 1 November, postponed to 16 December. Report by UN Monitoring Group stated 10 countries, including members of IGAD, continued to violate UN arms embargo on Somalia: UNSC unanimously voted for continuation of monitoring group 29 November.

Situation continued to deteriorate as talks between Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Khartoum appeared close to collapsing, and fighting between both sides continued in Somalia. UIC delegation said would not negotiate with TFG until Ethiopian troops withdrawn from Somalia; also opposed Kenya’s proposed chairmanship of talks. Risk of full-scale regional conflict involving Ethiopia and Eritrea increased: UN report cited estimates of 6,000- 8,000 Ethiopian troops already in Somalia supporting TFG, and 2,000 Eritrean soldiers supporting UIC. UIC reportedly recruited 3,000 Somalis for jihad against Ethiopia and continued to make territorial gains over TFG. Ethiopia denied its troops entered key town of Dinsor end September, but Meles Zenawi admitted “a few hundred” armed military trainers in Somalia and stated countries “technically” at war due to UIC jihad declaration.

Progress early in month between Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) largely negated by assassination attempt on president, UIC capture of Kismayo and Ethiopian troop deployment to Baidoa. President Yusuf survived country’s first suicide bombing 18 September, but 12 others killed, including Yusuf’s brother. UIC extended control over southern Somalia by taking Kismayo port 25 September; angry protests against Courts’ burning of Somali flag there led to shooting and death of 3. In response TFG again called for international arms embargo to be lifted to enable it to train security forces to protect its citizens. Hundreds of Ethiopian troops sighted in Baidoa in late September; believed to be in reaction to UIC capture of Kismayo, and part of continued Ethiopian effort to support TFG. Earlier in month, TFG and UIC had pledged commitment to 22 June agreement on mutual recognition, agreed in principle to unify armed groups and not seek help from foreign powers, and committed to work towards power- sharing arrangement at 30 October talks. IGAD proposal to send peacekeepers, strongly opposed by UIC, endorsed by AU 13 September.

Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) further consolidated control over much of south and east, seized coastal towns north of Mogadishu and vowed to eliminate piracy. Transitional Federal Government (TFG), weakened after string of July cabinet resignations, dissolved cabinet in Ethiopian-brokered initiative 7 August and appointed smaller cabinet 2 weeks later. UIC and TFG due to meet in Khartoum for talks 1 September. U.S. and UN called on Ethiopia and Eritrea to end interference in Somalia, threatening sanctions in response to any violation of arms embargo. Ethiopian troop presence reported in Baidoa, Wajid and Galkayo but denied by Addis Ababa. UIC head Aweys rejected IGAD proposals for regional peacekeeping force.

Country on brink of civil war, with fears conflict could spread to wider region. Ethiopian troops entered to support transitional federal government (TFG), with Eritrean support of Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) confirmed by Islamists’ leader Aweys and UN; denied by Eritrean President Afwerki. Intensified fighting in Mogadishu early in month killed 140 as UIC routed last of U.S.-backed anti-terrorism alliance. Prospects for power sharing between UIC and TFG deteriorated sharply with talks to bring sides together on hold: UIC refused to participate with Ethiopian troops in country, while TFG accused UIC of breaking June agreement against military expansion. TFG weakened as 19 of 275 MPs resigned 27 July, citing loss of faith in TFG’s commitment to peace negotiations. PM Gedi narrowly survived no-confidence vote 30 July. Pro-government demonstrators rioted 28 July in Baidoa after minister shot by unidentified gunman. UN monitors confirmed arms shipments from Ethiopia and Eritrea arriving in Somalia, after UN Security Council said willing to consider easing arms embargo to enable TFG to respond to security issues 13 July.

Islamic Courts militia seized control over Mogadishu 8 June, driving out U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism; later consolidated control over most of south. Talks in Khartoum between Courts and transitional government led to mutual recognition and de facto ceasefire 22 June. But choice of radical cleric Hassan Dahir Aweys to head new Consultative Council of Islamic Courts may prove explosive and derail further talks. U.S. ruled out direct relations with Aweys and highlighted fears country could become radical Islamist training ground. IGAD and AU pressed ahead with plans for peace support mission over strong objections of Courts militia, while Courts claimed Ethiopian military incursion as Ethiopia consolidated border presence.

Heavy fighting between Islamic Courts militia and U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism spread throughout Mogadishu, after collapse of temporary ceasefire that ended 7-14 May clashes; over 200 killed in month. Alliance accused Courts of links to al- Qaeda, while Courts accused U.S. of funnelling cash to warlords. PM Gedi gave 3 cabinet ministers (also Alliance members in Mogadishu) until early June to come to Baidoa or face dismissal, while cabinet supported inviting Ugandan and Sudanese peacekeepers to improve security. UN Security Council monitoring group reported weapons inflow from increasing number of states, including Djibouti, Eritrea, Italy and Saudi Arabia; all denied violating embargo.

Outbreak of further major fighting feared imminent in Mogadishu after Islamic courts declared jihad on U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism; 7 killed in clashes. Transitional parliament confirmed Baidoa temporary seat of government until security restored in Mogadishu, settling issue that had paralysed administration. Militia protecting parliament prevented lawmakers from entering session 1 April, complaining of inadequate shelter. At least 3 killed in clash between soldiers loyal to Puntland’s president and regional clan opposed to exploration activities by Australian oil company. U.S. held talks with government on fighting piracy off Somali coast; 2 ships hijacked in month.

Heavy fighting between Islamic Courts’ militia and members of U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism killed up to 140 in Mogadishu. Talks to resolve conflict collapsed and escalation feared. UN Security Council welcomed first in-country session of full transitional parliament in Baidoa but warned violence could undermine political progress; also indicated readiness to consider arms embargo exemption for possible IGAD/AU peace-support mission if approved by Somali parliament. U.S. navy clashed with seagoing militias after UNSC encouraged operations against piracy off Somali coast.