President Farmajo suspended PM Roble, escalating months-long crisis over delays in ongoing elections and raising risk of renewed violence in capital Mogadishu. Farmajo and Roble’s offices 26 Dec traded accusations of holding up ongoing legislative elections: Farmajo’s office said Roble was “posing a serious threat to the electoral process and overstepping his mandate”; Roble’s office hit back saying president had spent “so much time, energy and finances in frustrating” elections. Farmajo overnight 26-27 Dec suspended Roble’s powers citing allegations of corruption and misappropriation of public funds. Roble 27 Dec accused Farmajo of attempting to “militarily take over” PM’s office and vowed to continue his duties. Assistant Information Minister Abdirahman Yusuf Omar Adala same day labelled president’s decision “indirect coup”. U.S. embassy same day urged both leaders “to take immediate steps to de-escalate tensions” and “avoid violence”. Earlier in month, fighting 21-22 Dec erupted in Puntland state’s port town of Bosasso between special unit Puntland Security Forces (PSF) and region’s regular security forces, leaving at least 14 killed and 63 injured; Puntland’s govt 22 Dec announced ceasefire; clashes followed Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni’s late Nov dismissal of PSF commander Mohamoud Osman Diyano in likely attempt to assert greater control ahead of Lower House elections in Bosasso. Lower House election process continued to be marred by high level of manipulation, notably by federal member state leaders, including denying candidates right to register, bypassing clan elders and substituting clan delegates, all in order to ensure pre-determined candidates emerge victorious. Political opposition late Nov-early Dec threatened not to recognise results without changes. Only 24 of 275 representatives elected by 24 Dec deadline for completing process. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continued to present significant security threat. Group advanced along Beledweyne-Dhusamareb route, briefly taking control of Mataban town 13 Dec and Ceel Dheere town 15 Dec. Mortar attack directed against AU mission AMISOM base in Beledweyne town (Hiran region) 1 Dec killed three children. In Middle Shabelle region, IED 11 Dec targeted MPs and killed elder in regional capital Jowhar, and twin blasts targeting AMISOM same day reportedly killed four in Buurane and Mahadey areas.

In new setback, tensions rose as opposition denounced manipulation of Lower House election process; calm returned to Galmudug state, and Al-Shabaab maintained attacks notably in capital Mogadishu. Upper House 13 Nov filled last two remaining seats, completing 3.5-month-long election process. More complex Lower House elections 1 Nov kicked off slowly. Federal election committee 11 Nov announced new timeline for completion of Lower House process between 16 Nov and 24 Dec, which PM Roble endorsed same day. Opposition later in month voiced concerns regarding legitimacy of process amid reports of significant manipulation and interference in approximately two dozen seats filled by month’s end, raising risk of new electoral impasse. Following truce agreed in Oct between President Farmajo and Roble, Farmajo’s pick for intelligence chief remained in place, while Roble’s choice for minister of internal security also kept his position; accommodation allows Farmajo to retain influence over National Intelligence and Security Agency and possibly use it to support his re-election campaign. Calm returned to Galmudug state following heavy fighting between Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a (ASWJ) militia and Galmudug forces, backed by federal forces, in and around Guricel town in Oct; wider mediation to reach agreement between Galmudug administration and ASWJ over latter’s status however stalled by mid-Nov, raising possibility of further clashes. Attacks by Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab group continued. In capital Mogadishu, suicide attacks 11 Nov killed three including two civilians in Wadajir district, and 25 Nov killed eight and left 17 injured including schoolchildren in Hodan district. Also in Mogadishu, unidentified assailants 17 Nov killed traditional elder at his house in Yaqshid district, raising concern over protection of elders and delegates during electoral cycle. Elsewhere, bomb blast 19 Nov killed at least seven civilians in Bardale town, Bay region in South West state. Al-Shabaab late-Nov also launched two attacks in South West state’s capital Baidoa in alleged attempt to disrupt Lower House elections there: attack on military base and airport 30 Nov reportedly killed at least one soldier and one civilian. Mogadishu 4 Nov ordered AU Envoy Simon Mulongo to leave country, citing activities incompatible with AU mission’s mandate.

Electoral process inched forward while leadership tussle quietened, ASWJ militia re-emerged in centre, and Al-Shabaab attacks continued notably in capital Mogadishu. Following weeks-long tussle between President Farmajo and PM Roble, leaders 21 Oct agreed to move on and focus on accelerating long-delayed electoral cycle. Upper House elections progressed with Somaliland, Hirshabelle and Jubaland states completing process. By month’s end, only two seats for Galmudug state remained open. More complex Lower House process remained behind schedule due to technical, logistical and political issues, but expected to kick off 1 Nov. Meanwhile, Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama’a (ASWJ) militia re-emerged in Galmudug state. ASWJ early Oct captured Galguduud region’s Guricel and Ceel Dheer cities along main road to Galmudug state capital Dhusamareb, and Mataban town in Hirshabelle state’s Hiraan region. Galmudug Security Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi 7 Oct resigned, claiming Galmudug President Ahmed “Qoor Qoor” had chosen conflict rather than dialogue. ASWJ mid-Oct withdrew from Ceel Dheer and Mataban to concentrate forces around Guricel, leading to fierce fighting with Galmudug and federal forces; senior ASWJ official said 120 people killed in Guricel district 23-25 Oct, while Galmudug state said 16 soldiers killed in three days of fighting; UN 26 Oct recorded at least 100,000 displaced. Al-Shabaab attacks continued in Mogadishu. Notably, suicide vest attack at restaurant in Yaqshid district 12 Oct left at least three people dead. IED explosion same day targeted security forces convoy in Daynile district, leaving intelligence officer and two bodyguards killed. In Hirshabelle state capital Jowhar, IED likely planted by Al-Shabaab 5 Oct targeted members of state parliament returning from celebration of Hirshabelle’s five-year anniversary, reportedly injuring two; attack demonstrates group’s persistent determination to undermine even symbolic govt achievements. Al-Shabaab 30 Oct reportedly killed two soldiers in Bari region. AU Mission in Somalia 25 Oct said it had regained control of Basra area from Al-Shabaab militants in Lower Shabelle region jointly with govt forces 16-22 Oct. Roble 5 Oct condemned “inhuman and irregular” evictions of Somali nationals from contested areas by Somaliland authorities (see Somaliland). International Court of Justice 12 Oct issued ruling over Kenya-Somalia’s maritime border, sparking Nairobi’s ire (see Kenya).

Power struggle between President Farmajo and PM Roble escalated, putting at risk electoral progress; dispute could spark violence in capital Mogadishu. After weeks of mounting tensions between Farmajo and Roble, who has been in charge of election preparations since May, Roble 6 Sept suspended Fahad Yasin, head of National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) and Farmajo’s close ally, and appointed replacement, citing NISA’s failure to investigate case of missing intelligence officer. Farmajo next day moved Fahad to post of national security adviser and designated Fahad’s confidant Yasin Abdullahi Farey as interim NISA head. Farey 8 Sept moved to take control of NISA headquarters in Mogadishu, immediately prompting face-off between rival NISA units; outnumbered pro-Farmajo forces eventually backed down. Roble later same day replaced security minister – who oversees NISA – signalling further jockeying for control of institution; 12 Sept suspended withdrawal of funds from govt accounts without PM’s consent. Farmajo 16 Sept suspended Roble’s executive powers, accusing him of violating constitution; Roble immediately rejected order. UN Security Council 18 Sept urged feuding leaders to settle dispute and give top priority to holding elections this year. Electoral cycle remained behind schedule with Upper House elections still ongoing by month’s end. Authorities 6 Sept delayed selection of Lower House representatives to Nov without specifying new date for presidential election, which had been scheduled for 10 Oct. Following progress in resolving dispute over Somaliland’s election process between Upper House Speaker Abdi Hashi Abdullahi and Deputy PM Mahdi Guled, delegates from Somaliland 29-30 Sept elected 11 senators to serve in next federal parliament. Deadly attacks by Al-Shabaab continued. In Mogadishu, suicide attack near Halane airport compound 14 Sept killed at least ten, and suicide car bomb near president’s residence 25 Sept killed at least another ten. Group demonstrated its capacity to undertake mortar attacks throughout country, with incidents recorded in Middle Shabelle, Gedo and Bari regions in Sept; also continued to impose blockade on urban centres in Bakool region, notably Huddur and Wajid, causing food shortages. Meanwhile, clashes 30 Sept broke out between Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a (ASWJ) militia and Galmudug state forces in Bohol area (Galgaduud region).

Electoral cycle remained behind schedule while Al-Shabaab attacks and counter-offensives continued. South West, Puntland and Galmudug states early to mid-Aug held delayed Senate elections, after electoral cycle kicked off in Jubaland 29 July; elections in Hirshabelle and Somaliland yet to start; only 29 out of 54 senators chosen by month’s end. Electoral process continued to face several hurdles; notably, pro and anti-federal govt supporters continued to spar for control of Somaliland process; bloc of 15 presidential candidates 23 Aug rejected new election procedures agreed by federal govt and member states previous day, arguing process gives state leaders too much power in selecting electoral delegates tasked with appointing lower house MPs; candidates and state leaders 24 Aug formed technical committee to resolve disagreement. Relations between President Farmajo and PM Roble soured; notably, in apparent bid to undermine Roble’s 10 Aug visit to neighbouring Kenya, Farmajo 6 Aug issued decree barring govt from entering new economic, political and security agreements with foreign countries during electoral period, which Roble 8 Aug dismissed. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continued to launch deadly attacks. Notably, in capital Mogadishu, suicide bombing 19 Aug killed at least two; in Lower Shabelle region, security forces 20 Aug reportedly repelled two attacks on Sabiid and Anole districts, killing 60 militants. Militants launched offensives in Galmudug state’s Mudug region, killing eight civilians near Baladweyne town 10 Aug and at least two civilians and four soldiers in Amara town 24 Aug; latter attack reportedly prompted same day U.S. airstrike in Galmudug which allegedly killed at least 90 militants; Galmudug authorities 28 Aug denied Al-Shabaab took over several areas, including Amara and Bacadweyne towns, after govt forces withdrew. Armed forces 16 Aug claimed to have killed over 250 militants across country in previous weeks. AU mission in Somalia (AMISOM) 21 Aug said it was investigating reports that its troops were responsible for death of seven civilians in Lower Shabelle region 10 Aug; PM Roble same day ordered probe into killings. In Bari region, suspected Islamic State - Somalia militants 18 Aug reportedly temporarily seized Balidhidin town, killing mayor and several civilians.

As long-awaited elections faced new delays, Al-Shabaab attacks and counter-offensives continued, leaving scores dead. Most federal member states failed to form local selection committees and submit candidates’ lists in time for Senate election to take place 25-28 July as planned. Earlier in month, federal electoral commission 4 July elected Mohamed Hassan Irro as chair, finalising its composition. Electoral process continued to face several hurdles, however; notably, Senate speaker Abdi Hashi and Deputy PM Mahdi Guled throughout month continued to spar for control of local selection committee for Somaliland; opposition bloc of 15 presidential candidates 18 July expressed concern that electoral preparations remained incomplete and federal govt had not done enough to guarantee free and fair polls. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab 20 July threatened to target electoral authorities and continued to launch deadly attacks. Notably, in capital Mogadishu, suicide bombings killed at least ten people 2 July and at least another nine 10 July; latter attack reportedly targeted Mogadishu police chief Farhan Qarole, who survived unharmed. In Jubaland state, suspected Al-Shabaab explosive device 30 July killed at least five civilians in Kismayo city. Clashes between suspected Al-Shaabab militants on one side and security forces and AU mission troops on the other 13 July reportedly left 11 militants and seven security forces dead in Kuday village, Lower Juba region. Security forces 4-29 July reportedly killed dozens of Al-Shabaab combatants in centre and south, including 15 in Galguduud region 4 July, 35 in Mudug region 19 July, and another 30 in Hiraan region 26-29 July. Following six-month hiatus, U.S. airstrikes 20 and 23 July killed unknown number of Al-Shabaab militants in Galmudug state. Violence erupted in Hirshabelle state where forces reportedly aligned with renegade Gen. Abukar Huud 3 July clashed with Hirshabelle state forces and federal troops in state’s largest city Beledweyne; at least two killed. Clashes between rival federal govt forces over control of checkpoint 24 July reportedly killed four civilians in Mogadishu. Federal govt 17 July rejected conclusions of AU report proposing four options for future of AU mission in Somalia (AMISOM), including transition to hybrid UN-AU mission.

Federal govt and member states agreed on new schedule for long-delayed elections; Al-Shabaab attacks continued despite fresh assaults by army, and govt took steps to mend ties with Kenya amid ongoing tensions. Following late May agreement to hold parliamentary elections within 60 days, federal govt and member states 29 June adjusted timelines and scheduled elections for upper house for 25 July and for lower house between 10 Aug-10 Sept; both houses then due to convene 10 Oct to elect president. PM Roble 19 June finalised composition of state and federal election committees tasked with overseeing parliamentary poll. Some opposition presidential candidates continued to insist on removal of all 67 members that opposition bloc of 15 presidential candidates had flagged as biased late May, after Roble 5 June only dismissed 34. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continued to launch deadly attacks. In Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab suicide bombings killed at least two 5 June, and at least 15 army recruits 15 June. In Galmudug state (centre), Al-Shabaab 27 June launched car bomb attack on army base in Wisil town, reportedly leaving at least 17 soldiers and 13 civilians dead; 41 militants also killed. Army throughout June launched offensives against Al-Shabaab militants in centre and south, claiming to have killed hundreds by month’s end; notably, army reportedly killed 70 militants in Middle Shabelle region 3 June and another 50 in separate operations in Hiiran, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle regions 11-13 June. In Bay region, army 9 June reportedly repelled Al-Shabaab attack on its positions in Deynunay village, killing 19 militants. In Lower Shabelle, blast at makeshift Al-Shabaab bomb factory 7 June reportedly killed over 60 militants in Alfoto village. Federal govt 4 June accused Kenyan forces of killing civilians in two “indiscriminate airstrikes” previous day in Gedo region, Jubaland state; govt same day said it would raise issue with AU Peace and Security Council and initiate procedures for establishing claims commission with AU. Kenya 10 June lifted ban on flights to and from Somalia it had imposed in May, said it hoped “goodwill measure” would lead to “full normalisation of bilateral relations”; Somalia 12 June offered to resume full diplomatic relations, which Kenya 14 June accepted.

Election-related tensions subsided, Al-Shabaab attacks continued, and federal govt resumed relations with Kenya. Parliament’s lower house 1 May unanimously voted to repeal controversial resolution it passed in April to extend President Farmajo’s term by two years amid election deadlock, after move prompted deadly clashes between pro-opposition and pro-Farmajo factions of security forces in capital Mogadishu. Farmajo same day entrusted PM Roble with election preparations. Roble and pro-opposition troops 5 May reached agreement for latter to return to their barracks within 48 hours, in exchange of which they would not be penalised. Federal govt and member states 22 May resumed national consultative council (NCC) talks on electoral framework, 27 May agreed to hold parliamentary elections within 60 days. AU Commission 7 May appointed former Ghanaian President John Mahama as High Representative to Somalia to mediate electoral crisis; Mahama 20 May however stepped down after Mogadishu expressed reservations over his perceived ties with Kenya. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab continued to launch deadly attacks. Notably, suicide attack 9 May killed six police officers and one civilian at Waberi police station in Mogadishu, and suspected Al-Shabaab explosive device 21 May killed three people on outskirts of capital. In Hiraan region in centre, security forces reportedly killed at least seven suspected Al-Shabaab militants near Mahas district 9 May and another six in Buloburte district 22 May. In Middle Shabelle region (also centre), security forces 29 May reportedly killed 37 suspected Al-Shabaab militants in Galka-Harare area, and regained control of several villages. Local Macawisley militia 19 May clashed with Hirshabelle state police in state capital Jowhar; ten people killed. After Qatari mediation, Somalia 6 May said it had restored diplomatic relations with Kenya, which had been severed since Dec 2020. However, Mogadishu in following days rejected Kenya’s attempts to resume khat stimulant exports to Somalia, prompting Nairobi to suspend all non-medical and humanitarian flights to and from Somalia for three months.

Amid stalled electoral process, extension of president’s term triggered deadly clashes in capital Mogadishu, and violence could escalate in May; Al-Shabaab attacks continued. Following constitutional expiration of President Farmajo’s mandate in Feb, new round of national consultative council (NCC) talks on electoral framework between federal govt and member states collapsed 7 April. Parliament’s lower house 12 April passed controversial resolution to extend Farmajo’s term by two years. Speaker of Parliament’s upper house immediately said vote was unconstitutional, called on international community to intervene “before it gets out of hand”. Farmajo next day signed measure into law, drawing widespread criticism. Notably, in joint statement, UN Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), AU and others 14 April expressed “deep concern” over term extension and rising tensions, and UN Security Council 23 April urged all parties “to reject violence and resume dialogue”. Pro-opposition soldiers 25 April mutinied and entered Mogadishu, clashed with forces loyal to Farmajo, leaving at least two dozen dead; 60,000 to 100,000 people reportedly displaced. UNSOM and international partners 27 April “strongly condemned outbreak of violence”, said army’s fragmentation along clan lines could distract it from combating Al-Shabaab. After key allies came out against term extension, Farmajo 28 April announced he would ask Parliament to reverse it and pledged to renew dialogue with member states over elections; Puntland state immediately said it would not attend new talks unless invited by international community. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab attacks continued mainly in Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba and Bay regions, and Mogadishu. Notably, Al-Shabaab 3 April claimed it had killed 67 govt troops in same day twin attacks on Awdhigle and Bariire army bases, Lower Shabelle; army said attacks left 76 militants and nine soldiers dead. In Middle Shabelle, army 13 April said it had killed 25 militants in Gamboole village. In Mogadishu, suspected Al-Shabaab suicide bombings killed five civilians 3 April and at least seven 28 April; mortar attack targeting presidential palace 21 April reportedly killed another three. Minibus 14 April triggered suspected Al-Shabaab landmine on Mogadishu-Balcad axis, leaving at least 14 civilians dead.

Electoral process remained stalled, and Al-Shabaab launched deadly attacks in capital Mogadishu, demonstrating potential to disrupt electoral proceedings. Following constitutional expiration of President Farmajo’s mandate and deadly clashes between opposition supporters and security forces in Feb, third round of talks between PM Roble and opposition bloc of 15 presidential candidates on organisation of parliamentary and presidential elections broke down 4 March, after bloc insisted on being part of national consultative council (NCC) talks on elections. NCC talks involving federal govt and member states 22-23 March concluded without meaningful progress as presidents of Puntland and Jubaland states did not attend, reportedly over security concerns. Govt faced mounting international pressure to hold election. Notably, UN Security Council 12 March unanimously urged govt to organise elections “without delay”, 31 March reiterated call; U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 19 March expressed “deep concern” at electoral impasse and called on political leadership to “immediately” organise elections. Parliament Speaker Mohamed Mursal Abdirahman 27 March called off same day parliamentary session after opposition MPs reportedly disrupted session over allegations that Abdirahman and pro-govt MPs were planning to pass term extension for Farmajo. Former Jubaland state Security Minister Abdirashid Janan, who escaped in 2020 from jail in Mogadishu, 24 March surrendered to federal govt. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab launched deadly attacks in Mogadishu. Notably, Al-Shabaab suicide bombing 5 March killed over 20 and roadside bomb targeting local govt official 29 March killed at least five civilians; first mortar attacks in Mogadishu since mid-2020 9 and 25 March targeted airport compound that houses African Union mission (AMISOM) base in Mogadishu, killing at least two civilians. In Puntland state in north, Al-Shabaab 5 March raided Bosaso central prison, breaking out hundreds of prisoners; at least seven soldiers reportedly killed. In Lower Shabelle region in south, army 27 March killed 11 Al-Shabaab militants, including senior commander known as Ismail Jiis, in Bula Haji village. UN Security Council 12 March renewed AMISOM mandate until 31 Dec. International Court of Justice (ICJ) hearings on maritime border row between Somalia and Kenya 15 March started without Kenya after latter 11 March pulled out citing ICJ’s “bias” and refusal to delay hearing.