Deadly clashes erupted between security forces and opposition supporters after President Farmajo’s mandate expired; deadlocked electoral process could spark more violence in March. Farmajo and heads of federal member states 3-5 Feb met in Galmudug state capital Dhusamareb but failed to break deadlock over organisation of parliamentary and presidential elections; conditions for holding polls in Gedo region, Jubaland state, among main stumbling blocks. Opposition bloc of 15 presidential candidates 8 Feb said it no longer recognised Farmajo as president after his term expired that day, called for formation of Transitional National Council to lead country to elections; federal govt however maintained by month’s end – on basis of Sept legislation – that govt can stay in power until elections are held. After opposition bloc 14 Feb called for protests, federal govt 17 Feb banned public gatherings, citing rise in COVID-19 cases. Security forces and opposition supporters 19 Feb clashed in capital Mogadishu, leaving at least eight dead. Subsequently, Jubaland and Puntland state presidents pulled out of 21 Feb election talks between Farmajo and heads of federal member states. PM Roble and opposition bloc 25 Feb met in Mogadishu, agreed to launch investigation into 19 Feb clashes, delay protest planned for 26 Feb and continue discussion over political situation. Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab attacks 1-21 Feb left at least 26 security personnel and civilians dead in Mudug, Galguduud, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle regions. In Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab suicide bombing 13 Feb killed at least one civilian; suspected Al-Shabaab militants next day shot and killed three civilians; two separate Al-Shabaab bombings 28 Feb left at least two security personnel and a civilian dead. Counter-insurgency operations also continued. Security forces 2-28 Feb reportedly killed several dozen Al-Shabaab combatants in Galguduud, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba and Bay regions. In Hirshabelle state, security forces and clan militia opposed to Nov 2020 state presidential election outcome 4 Feb clashed in Hiraan regional capital Beledweyne, death toll unknown. At border with Kenya, Somali soldiers 1 Feb shot and killed one Kenyan security personnel and injured two others.

Deadly clashes erupted between federal and Jubaland state forces in Gedo region; amid deadlocked electoral preparations, violence could erupt when President Farmajo’s mandate expires on 8 Feb. In Jubaland state’s Gedo region, fighting overnight 24-25 Jan erupted between federal govt forces and Jubaland state forces in Bula Hawa town near Kenyan border, reportedly killing 21 and displacing at least 30,000; Mogadishu 25 Jan accused “illegal militias armed by the government of Kenya” of launching attack in Bula Hawa; Nairobi same day denied involvement. Meanwhile, PM Roble 9 Jan announced legislative elections would proceed despite federal member states Jubaland and Puntland continuing to boycott electoral process. Opposition bloc of 14 presidential candidates 11 Jan denounced move, warning that partial elections would endanger “the unity and stability of Somalia”. Jubaland and Puntland states 27 Jan appointed regional electoral commissions and called for emergency meeting between federal govt and member states to resolve disputes over electoral process; President Farmajo 30 Jan announced he would meet with heads of federal member states 1-3 Feb. Failure to organise parliamentary and presidential elections as planned by 8 Feb – the day Farmajo’s mandate ends – could trigger violent outbreaks. In south and centre, Al-Shabaab attacks 2-27 Jan left at least 44 security personnel, civilians and officials dead in Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba, Gedo and Hiraan regions. In capital Mogadishu, string of Al-Shabaab roadside bombings 5-23 Jan killed at least 15 security personnel, civilians and officials; Al-Shabaab attack 31 Jan reportedly left at least 11 dead. Meanwhile, counter-insurgency operations continued. Security forces 7-29 Jan killed several dozen Al-Shabaab militants in Bay, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Gedo, Lower Juba and Mudug regions. U.S. airstrikes 1-19 Jan killed a dozen Al-Shabaab militants in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions. U.S. mid-Jan said it had completed “repositioning” of most U.S. troops based in Somalia to neighbouring countries.

Electoral disputes delayed Dec legislative polls and threatened to derail Feb presidential election; tensions rose with Kenya. Federal electoral commission – whose members opposition considers to be loyalists of President Farmajo – 5 Dec appointed chairperson, prompting opposition bloc of 14 presidential candidates to appoint parallel electoral body. Opposition protests 15 Dec resulted in clashes with security forces, reportedly leaving several injured in capital Mogadishu. After missing 10 Dec deadline for conclusion of federal parliament’s upper house election – due to Jubaland and Puntland’s refusal to appoint regional electoral commissions – federal electoral commission 23 Dec postponed upper house poll to late Dec-early Jan and said selection of delegates tasked with electing lower house would begin 7 Jan; opposition bloc of presidential candidates same day rejected new timetable; federal electoral commission 29 Dec again postponed upper house poll early to mid-Jan. Mandate of federal parliament expired 27 Dec. Somalia 15 Dec cut diplomatic ties with Kenya for “constantly interfering” in its internal affairs; move coincided with Somaliland President Bihi’s visit to Kenya during which he and Kenyan President Kenyatta announced that Kenya would open consulate in Somaliland’s capital and that Somaliland would upgrade its liaison office in Kenya by March. In subsequent days, both Somalia and Kenya reportedly deployed troops to their shared border. Mogadishu 19 Dec accused Kenya of hosting and arming Somali militia to launch cross-border attacks and said it would take “all necessary steps” to protect its “territorial integrity”. Farmajo and Kenyatta 20 Dec met during summit of regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); Mogadishu reportedly asked IGAD to establish commission to look into its complaints, including arming of Somali militia. Djibouti 25 Dec deployed fact-finding mission to assess situation at Somalia-Kenya border. In Hirshabelle state, clan militia opposed to last month’s state presidential election outcome 4 Dec clashed with federal govt forces in Hiraan regional capital Beledweyne, leaving at least two injured. Al-Shabaab continued to launch deadly attacks. Notably, Al-Shabaab suicide bombing 18 Dec killed 21, mostly civilians, in Mudug region’s capital Galkayo. U.S. 4 Dec announced it would “reposition” most of its troops in Somalia to neighbouring countries by early 2021.

Appointment of electoral commissions, in charge of overseeing upcoming indirect elections, sparked major dispute; tensions rose with Kenya; and Al-Shabaab continued deadly attacks. Ahead of Dec parliamentary elections and Feb 2021 presidential vote, federal govt early Nov appointed federal electoral commission, dispute resolution commission and regional electoral commission for breakaway Somaliland, sparking strong opposition. Coalition of six opposition parties, Forum for National Parties, 7 Nov rejected federal electoral and dispute resolution commissions, condemning inclusion of intelligence service agents and civil servants; coalition said federal govt has no legal authority to appoint Somaliland representatives and that Somaliland’s commission should be appointed by speaker of federal parliament’s upper house, Abdi Hashi. Hashi 21 Nov appointed parallel electoral body for Somaliland. Fourteen presidential candidates 26 Nov demanded dissolution of all commissions, accusing President Farmajo of stacking electoral bodies with loyalists; candidates threatened to undertake further actions if demands are not met. Jubaland state President Madobe 28 Nov reiterated that parliamentary polls would not take place in disputed Gedo region as long as federal troops remain deployed there; Mogadishu next day expelled Kenya’s ambassador and recalled its own, accusing Nairobi of interfering in its internal affairs by prompting Madobe to renege on “election agreement” reached in Sept; Kenya next day denied allegations. In Hirshabelle state, candidate backed by federal govt, Ali Gudlawe, 11 Nov won Hirshabelle’s presidential election; following polls, clan militia mobilised outside Hiraan regional capital Beledweyne against election results, and late Nov reportedly clashed with federal forces. In south and centre, Al-Shabaab killed at least 40 civilians and security personnel throughout month in Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Bakool, Mudug and Galguduud regions. In capital Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab attacks left at least 15 dead throughout month. After conflict broke out in Ethiopia between federal govt and Tigray regional state (see Ethiopia), Addis Ababa early Nov reportedly began withdrawal of about 3,000 soldiers unaffiliated with African Union mission (AMISOM) from Gedo region in south; Ethiopia 18 Nov said it had disarmed ethnic Tigrayan officers within its AMISOM contingent.

Federal govt and member states reached agreement on electoral timetable but Jubaland state objected to holding polls in contested Gedo region; Al-Shabaab attacks continued. Federal govt and member states 1 Oct agreed to hold indirect legislative and presidential elections in Dec 2020 and Feb 2021 respectively; also decided on location of polls and allocation of parliamentary seats, and resolved to form federal and regional electoral commissions and dispute resolution committee. Jubaland President Madobe 6 Oct however said parliamentary elections could not take place in disputed Gedo region as long as Mogadishu’s forces remain present there; following alleged targeting of civilians by Kenyan forces and brief skirmish between Somali and Kenyan forces in Gedo late Sept-early Oct, Mogadishu, Kenya and reportedly also Jubaland early-to-mid-Oct deployed additional troops to Gedo. In south and centre, Al-Shabaab attacks and counter-insurgency operations 2-12 Oct left at least six soldiers and 32 militants dead in Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Gedo, Lower Juba, Bay and Hiraan regions. Clashes between Al-Shabaab and security forces 14-15 Oct reportedly left at least 18 soldiers and 61 militants dead in Lower Shabelle region. Roadside bombings 15-18 Oct killed at least four soldiers and two civilians in Middle Shabelle region. Security forces 16-25 Oct reportedly killed several dozen militants in Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Bay and Hiraan regions. In Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab suicide bombing 1 Oct killed senior intelligence official; Al-Shabaab roadside bomb targeting govt official 20 Oct left at least two civilians dead; suspected Al-Shabaab militants 27 Oct shot and killed two aid workers and detonated car bomb, leaving at least three more dead. President Farmajo and Eritrean President Afwerki early Oct met in Eritrea, agreed to upgrade July 2018 agreement that restored diplomatic relations and to accelerate regional integration efforts on basis of Sept 2018 tripartite agreement between Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia.

Federal govt and all member states reached long-awaited agreement on electoral framework; Al-Shabaab attacks continued in south, centre and capital Mogadishu. President Farmajo early Sept met with presidents of Puntland and Jubaland federal member states after they distanced themselves from Aug deal between Farmajo and leaders of Galmudug, Hirshabelle and South West states regarding electoral modalities for Nov 2020 parliamentary and Feb 2021 presidential elections; Farmajo made several major concessions to Puntland and Jubaland; Farmajo and heads of all five federal member states met 13-17 Sept, agreed to indirect electoral framework for 2020-2021 polls. Shortly after reaching deal, Farmajo appointed Mohamed Hussein Roble as new PM following July ouster of former PM Khayre. Parliament approved PM Roble 23 Sept and indirect electoral model 26 Sept. In south and centre, Al-Shabaab 4 Sept abducted some 50 herders in Hiraan region; early Sept withstood army offensives to retake strategic Janay Abdalle town in Lower Juba region and throughout month reportedly killed at least 39 soldiers, civilians and state officials in Mudug, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Bakool, Hiraan and Galguduud regions. Counter-insurgency operations throughout month reportedly left over 100 Al-Shabaab militants dead in Galguduud, Mudug, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions. Security forces 25 Sept rescued 40 children from Al-Shabaab training camp in Lower Shabelle region. In Mogadishu, suspected Al-Shabaab bombing targeting convoy of African Union mission (AMISOM) 6 Sept left one dead; AMISOM soldiers same day shot and wounded at least seven civilians. Al-Shabaab suicide bombing at restaurant 9 Sept killed at least three. In Middle Shabelle region, suspected inter-clan revenge killing 3 Sept left at least five dead. In Gedo region in south, hundreds late Sept took to streets across region after Kenyan forces reportedly operating under AMISOM 23-24 Sept allegedly killed at least one civilian and abducted several others; Kenyan security forces 26 Sept opened fire to deter demonstrators from approaching border prompting Somali forces to return fire which sparked brief firefight.

Al-Shabaab launched deadly attacks in capital Mogadishu and rural areas, while frictions heightened between federal govt and member states Jubaland and Puntland over organisation of elections. In Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab suicide bombings 3 Aug killed at least three including two security guards and 8 Aug killed eight soldiers. Inside Mogadishu’s central prison, Al-Shabaab inmates 10 Aug attempted to break free using smuggled weapons; shoot-out between inmates and prison guards backed up by security forces killed 15 inmates and four prison guards; one Al-Shabaab inmate reportedly managed to escape and killed two civilians outside prison. Al-Shabaab attack on Mogadishu hotel 16 Aug left at least 16 dead, mostly civilians. In south and centre, suspected Al-Shabaab attacks 2-23 Aug killed at least 42 security personnel, officials and civilians in Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Bay, Gedo, Hiraan and Mudug regions. Security forces 2-29 Aug reported over 80 suspected Al-Shabaab militants killed in Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Gedo and Bay regions. Security forces 14 Aug rescued 33 children from Al-Shabaab camp in Lower Shabelle region. U.S. Africa Command said three U.S. airstrikes 20-25 Aug killed eight Al-Shabaab militants in Lower Shabelle and Middle Juba regions. In Puntland in north, security operation 20-21 Aug left at least ten Al-Shabaab militants and two soldiers dead in Bari region. President Farmajo and heads of federal member states Galmudug, Hirshabelle and South West mid-Aug signed agreement reiterating July commitment to hold Nov 2020 parliamentary and Feb 2021 presidential elections on time and settling on indirect electoral model instead of “one person, one vote” polls; presidents of Puntland and Jubaland states boycotted meeting, accusing Farmajo of failing to deliver on previous commitments on elections, and 21 Aug jointly distanced themselves from agreement; 27 Aug however said they would soon attend meeting with Farmajo in Mogadishu to discuss 2020-2021 polls.

Al-Shabaab kept up insurgency; federal govt and member states agreed to hold elections as previously scheduled; and parliament ousted PM Khayre. In south, Al-Shabaab 4 July detonated bomb killing at least five civilians and security personnel in Bay region; next day kidnapped and killed regional lawmaker in Middle Shabelle region; 6-13 July launched attacks on security forces reportedly leaving at least seventeen dead in Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions. Counter-insurgency operations 6-19 July reportedly killed at least 29 Al-Shabaab militants in Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba and Bay regions. U.S. airstrikes 9 and 29 July reportedly killed two Al-Shabaab insurgents in Lower Shabelle and Middle Juba region; reports of civilian casualties also emerged. In Puntland in north, security operation with U.S. air support 21 July reportedly left 27 Islamic State (ISIS)-Somalia militants dead in Bari region. In capital Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab 8 July detonated bomb killing two police officers; 13 July launched unsuccessful suicide attack on army chief, General Odowa Rage; 18 July detonated bomb failing to kill deputy security minister; 27 July shot policeman dead. After electoral commission late June said it could not organise “one person, one vote” 2020 parliamentary and 2021 presidential elections on time, presidents of all federal member states 11-12 July met in Galmudug state capital Dhusamareb, agreed that polls should be held on time and invited federal govt to discuss alternative, indirect electoral model; in ensuing conference in Dhusamareb 19-22 July, President Farmajo and federal state leaders agreed to conduct timely elections and create technical committee tasked with formulating recommendations for electoral process; during conference, Farmajo and Jubaland state President Madobe reportedly held informal talks after more than a year of fraught relations; Madobe said they had “agreed to reach truce”. Parliament’s lower house 25 July voted no confidence in PM Khayre notably for failing to deliver direct elections, prompting him to resign; Farmajo same day named Deputy PM Mahdi Mohamed Guleid as caretaker PM. After resuming in June, talks with Somaliland suffered delays (see Somaliland).

Al-Shabaab attacks continued across country, electoral commission said elections could not take place as scheduled and talks with Somaliland resumed after five-year hiatus. In centre and south, Al-Shabaab attacks against security forces throughout month killed at least 14 soldiers and three civilians in Hiraan, Lower Juba, Bay, Gedo, Middle Shabelle, and Lower Shabelle regions. In Lower Shabelle region, fighting between Al-Shabaab and local self-defence militia 18 June left at least seven dead, and unclaimed bombing 20 June killed at least four soldiers and civilians. Security forces 6-26 June reportedly killed at least 67 Al-Shabaab insurgents in counter-insurgency operations in Bakool, Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Hiraan regions. In Puntland in north, security forces 6 June shot and killed Al-Shabaab militant in Mudug region. In capital Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab militants 7-27 June shot and killed four police officers and one local official. Unclaimed roadside bombing 18 June killed at least three civilians. Al-Shabaab suicide bombing at Turkish military base 23 June left two civilians dead. In Galguduud region in centre, inter-clan fighting 24-27 June reportedly left around a dozen dead. Following pressure from international community, federal parliament’s upper house, several federal member states and opposition parties, President Farmajo 24 June invited heads of federal member states to meeting in Mogadishu 5-8 July to discuss modalities of parliamentary elections due by end of year and presidential election scheduled for 2021. Head of electoral commission 27 June announced that it could not organise elections on time citing “significant technical and security challenges”. Amid ongoing standoff with Jubaland state, federal govt 14 June announced it would recognise state President Madobe as “interim” president for two-year period; Madobe immediately rejected move saying he was elected to four-year term. In resumption of dialogue process which broke down in 2015, Farmajo and Somaliland President Bihi mid-June met in Djibouti over Somaliland’s claim to sovereignty which Mogadishu does not recognise; in following days, both sides agreed to further talks and to establish subcommittees to discuss technical issues in July.

Al-Shabaab attacks persisted in south and capital Mogadishu and intensified in Puntland state in north where security forces also confronted Islamic State (ISIS)-Somalia. In south, Al-Shabaab militants 3-7 May killed at least two civilians in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions. Counter-insurgency operations 10-31 May left at least 70 Al-Shabaab dead in Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Bay, Hiraan and Gedo regions. In Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba and Bay regions, string of Al-Shabaab and unclaimed bombings 24-31 May killed at least fourteen soldiers and fourteen civilians; according to local elders, soldiers 27 May abducted and killed seven aid workers and one civilian suspected of sympathising with insurgents in Middle Shabelle region, army denied involvement. In Puntland in north, ISIS militants 9 May attacked security forces in city of Bosaso, leaving soldier and at least two militants dead; in following days, security forces shot and killed ISIS militant and arrested four others in Bosaso. Al-Shabaab 14 May launched attack on military base near Bosaso leaving soldier and three assailants dead; 17 May detonated suicide bomb in Mudug region’s capital Galkayo killing at least four including Mudug governor. In capital Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab continued to target security personnel reportedly killing at least five throughout month. In north and centre, clan militias 3-19 May clashed over land disputes reportedly leaving at least ten dead in Mudug and Galguduud regions. Fighting 23 May reportedly broke out between clan militia and army leaving at least eight dead in Mudug region. In Bay region in south, Kenyan-registered aeroplane carrying COVID-19 medical supplies 4 May crashed in Bardale area killing all six Somali and Kenyan passengers; amid media reports that Ethiopian soldiers may have shot aeroplane down, Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia next day launched joint investigation. International Court of Justice 22 May postponed hearing on Somalia-Kenya maritime border dispute from 8-12 June to March 2021, after Kenya requested delay on account of COVID-19. UN Security Council 29 May extended mandate of African Union mission (AMISOM) until Feb 2021.