CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Japanese defence ministry 12 Jan said Chinese intelligence-gathering ship was seen sailing outside contiguous zone of disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands; Japan’s chief cabinet secretary said Tokyo “went through diplomatic channels” to express interest. Followed late Dec incident in which Chinese coast guard vessel equipped with gun turrets entered territorial waters of Diaoyu/Senkaku islands 26 Dec, prompting Tokyo to deliver “strong protest”. Chinese foreign ministry said Chinese patrols were “beyond reproach”, vessel carried “standard equipment.” Japanese defence minister warned that Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) would be deployed if Chinese naval vessels enter Japanese sea territory; Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said China has right to conduct normal operations near disputed islands.
Japanese officials 18 Dec confirmed Tokyo will position anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile batteries along 200 islands in East China Sea (ECS) and increase military personnel in area to almost 10,000 over five years, in response to threat from China. Chinese and Japanese officials met in Xiamen, China 7-9 Dec to discuss early implementation of agreed aerial and maritime contact mechanism; agreed to strengthen cooperation and exchanges, but few concrete results. Australian PM Turnbull visited Japan 18 Dec, confirmed agreement to ease cooperation between their armed forces: issued joint statement calling for halt to land-reclamation activities in South China Sea. Japan 30 Dec reported sighting of armed Chinese coastguard ship near disputed islands in ECS.
Japan and China’s defence ministers agreed 4 Nov that early launch of maritime communication mechanism and defence exchanges are crucial to avoid accidental clashes in East China Sea (ECS). During trilateral summit of Chinese, Japanese and South Korean leaders 1-2 Nov, PM Abe reportedly brought up concerns over China’s development of gas fields in ECS, and Chinese patrols near disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands. Japan reportedly planning to deploy several hundred troops to island in ECS. Japan scrambled military jets after eleven Chinese military aircraft flew near southern Japanese islands 27 Nov as part of military drill.
China and Japan 14 Oct launched high level political dialogue, Japanese PM Abe said relations must move away from “excessive focus” on past. Abe and visiting Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi agreed to operationalise a maritime crisis management mechanism as soon as possible. Abe 17 Oct made ritual offering to controversial Yasukuni Shrine; large delegation of politicians visited shrine next day. Japan showcased warships 18 Oct, joined by navy vessels from U.S., India, South Korea, Australia, France. China 22 Oct defended its oil and gas development in East China Sea, ahead of high-level bilateral talks with Japan planned for Nov.
Japanese parliament 19 Sept passed controversial security bills allowing Self Defence Forces (SDF) more freedom in overseas military operations. U.S. and Australia welcomed changes; China accused Japan of threatening regional peace. Polls show majority of Japanese opposed to changes. Japan 16 Sept lodged protest with China over its oil exploration activities in East China Sea; China said its work was in waters under Chinese jurisdiction. China 3 Sept held lavish military parade in Beijing to celebrate 70th anniversary of defeat of Japan in WWII, including 12,000 troops and 200 aircraft, tanks, new medium-range “carrier killer” missiles and long-range missiles; in opening speech President Xi announced China to reduce military by 300,000 to two million troops by 2017, to allow for modernisation and streamlining.
During 14 Aug speech on 70th anniversary of WWII Japanese PM Abe expressed “deep remorse” for “immeasurable damage and suffering” inflicted by Japan during war, but avoided direct, personal apology. China said apology lacked sincerity, was evasive. Japan complained to UN over UNSG Ban’s plan to attend Beijing military parade 3 Sept commemorating 70th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in WWII. China also denounced 15 Aug visit by three members of Japanese cabinet to controversial Yasukuni shrine; Abe sent financial offering. Negotiations for Abe to visit Beijing ended in failure. China and Russia held large-scale combined naval drills in Sea of Japan and off coast of Russia 20-28 Aug. Thousands across Japan 30 Aug joined largest protests yet against Abe’s controversial security bills.
Japan’s lower house 16 July passed two controversial security bills aimed at allowing Self Defence Forces (SDF) to conduct military operations overseas for first time since WW2; China called legislation “unprecedented”, warned of effects on regional security environment. During mid-July visit to Beijing, Japanese envoy reportedly discussed a leaders’ summit in Sept with Chinese counterparts. Japan 21 July released defence white paper stressing threat posed by China, including latter’s mobilisation of larger vessels around disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in East China Sea (ECS). China said white paper “ignores facts, makes irresponsible remarks on China’s normal military growth and maritime activities”. Japan 22 July unveiled photos of Chinese oil rigs in ECS, said constructions “extremely regrettable”; China said Japan provoking confrontation; rigs are on Chinese side of medium line. Japan 7 July announced maritime SDF and coast guard will hold naval drills in preparation for incidents related to China’s ECS construction activities.
Japan saw protests against govt’s proposed legislation for collective self-defence 21 June despite assurances from PM Abe 15 June that legislation and proposed reinterpretation of pacifist constitution would not lead to conflict with China; Abe’s approval ratings at new low. Beijing 13 June said Tokyo’s activities in South China Sea could harm improving relations (see SCS). China and Japan 16 June agreed on liaison mechanism to prevent accidental clashes, will exclude territorial waters and airspace. Beijing 30 June demanded explanation from Tokyo after Abe was quoted saying Japan’s security legislation is directed at China. Japan and South Korea 21 June agreed to aim for three-way summit with China by end of year.
Japanese cabinet 14 May approved defence bills that would allow military forces to participate in collective self-defence; PM Abe vowed to limit Japan’s use of force. China President Xi 9 May met Abe in Indonesia. China 15 May opposed Japan’s proposal to insert language commemorating Hiroshima and Nagasaki in UN NPT Review Conference, insisting it will allow Japan to portray itself as WWII victim rather than aggressor. Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani 30 May said Japan continues to have “deep remorse” for actions in WWII that “brought suffering to the peoples in Asian countries”, a position he said Abe administration upholds. Amid increasing tensions in South China Sea, Japan issued joint statement with U.S. and Australia expressing concern over Chinese land reclamation activities in disputed areas (see South China Sea).
U.S. and Japan 27 April announced new defence guidelines increasing defence cooperation, envisaging greater Japanese military role globally, potentially assisting U.S. militarily even if it is not directly threatened; agreement prompted criticism from China. Japanese PM Abe met Chinese President Xi on sidelines of Asian-African summit in Jakarta 23 April; agreed to work on improving ties, but Abe warned will “never allow to go unchecked the use of force by the mightier to twist the weaker around” during speech, likely a veiled criticism of China. Speaking in media interview 20 April Abe stated he supports 1995 Murayama Statement apologising for suffering caused by Japan during WWII, but would not repeat wording at Aug WWII anniversary. Japanese Cabinet ministers 23 April visited controversial Yasukuni Shrine; Abe 20 April sent offerings to Yasukuni.
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