CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

China/Japan

After four-year hiatus, 13th round of Japan-China Security Dialogue held in Tokyo 19 March. Japanese Deputy FM urged each side to “discuss intentions and thoughts behind each other’s defence policies”; Chinese side expressed hope Japan would stick to “purely defensive” posture. Sides agreed to speed up communications mechanism to avoid accidental clashes, did not set timeline for implementation. Former defence ministry official 2 March told Xinhua China and Japan “soon” to launch formal mechanism to manage local maritime and aerial crises, provided Japan does not offend China again. China, Japan and South Korea convened trilateral FMs meeting in Seoul 21 March, first since 2012.

Asia

China/Japan

Japanese PM Abe pleaded for country to revise its pacifist constitution in speech to Diet 12 Feb, latest in series of calls for constitutional change following killing of two Japanese hostages by Islamic State in Middle East. Abe also expressed “deep remorse” for Japan’s aggression in WWII, in attempt to head off criticism from Japanese left and from China and ROK that he was seeking to return to country’s past militarism. Japan’s ruling coalition 13 Feb began formal discussions of national security legislation needed for country to engage in collective self-defence. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying 13 Feb called for Japan to honestly face past and honour its apology for wartime aggression. Chinese troops rehearsing for major parade in Sept.

Asia

China/Japan

Japanese PM Abe 25 Jan said remorseful statement forthcoming for 15 Aug, 70th anniversary of WWII end; but also indicated he would not follow original wording of 1995 Murayama Statement apologising for suffering caused by Japan during war. Chinese foreign ministry 26 Jan warned Abe not to “play down history of aggression”. Japanese FM Kishida and Chinese ambassador to Japan Cheng Yonghua 9 Jan held first official meeting since Abe’s Dec 2013 visit to Yasukuni Shrine: reportedly agreed to increased cooperation; Kishida also protested entrance same day of three Chinese patrol ships into waters around disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku  islands. Chinese and Japanese defence ministries 12 Jan reached common understanding to launch maritime and air crisis management mechanism to avert unwanted clashes. Chinese aviation authorities late Dec removed warning that “defensive emergency measures” could be taken against aircraft failing to comply with regulations inside China’s East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), which caused protests from neighbours when introduced late 2013. China’s National Marine Data and Information Service 30 Dec launched website asserting indisputable sovereignty over Diaoyu/Senkaku islands. Japan’s cabinet 14 Jan approved record defence budget of 4.98 trillion yen (US$42 bn), 2% increase on previous year.

Asia

China/Japan

Speaking at first Chinese National Memorial Day for Nanjing Massacre victims, President Xi spoke against hatred of Japan, urged China and Japan to work together for peace. Fifth meeting of Japan-China Policy Dialogue on the Mekong Region and fourth New Japan-China Friendship Committee for 21st Century held early Dec – both forums had been on hiatus since 2011. Newly re-elected Japanese PM Abe 24 Dec appointed as new defence minister Gen Nakatani, who favours stronger preemptive strike capability; China’s foreign ministry 25 Dec said Japan should uphold path of peace. Japan proposed resuming talks in Jan on hotline to avoid unforeseen maritime incidents. Japanese and Chinese officials 28 Dec agreed to step up cooperation on energy conservation and environmental measures.

Asia

China/Japan

Following months of preparatory meetings and backchannel diplomacy, China and Japan 7 Nov jointly issued four-point agreement on improving relations; acknowledges different stances on recent “tensions” over islands and vaguely states sides have reached agreement on overcoming political obstacles regarding wartime history. Beijing had demanded that Tokyo acknowledge that Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands are disputed, and that Abe not visit Yasukuni Shrine again as PM, as preconditions for bilateral summit; Tokyo rejected preconditions. Communiqué seen as basis for more substantive talks. Agreement paved way for meeting between Chinese President Xi and Japanese PM Abe on sidelines of Beijing-hosted APEC summit 10 Nov; meeting seen as vital first step in thawing Sino-Japanese relations. Talks expected to restart soon to establish mechanisms to avoid accidental military clashes at sea.

Asia

China/Japan

Efforts to arrange talks between Chinese President Xi, Japanese PM Abe at Nov Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum amid continued historical and territorial disputes: Chinese foreign ministry expressed concern over Abe sending offerings to controversial Yasukuni Shrine 17 Oct; 110 govt legislators, 80 aides prayed at shrine. Xi 30 Oct met former Japanese PM Yasuo Fukuda in Beijing during business delegation visit. Chinese coastguard 18 Oct entered disputed waters near Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

Asia

China/Japan

Chinese President Xi Jinping, PM Li Keqiang and Politburo Standing Committee 3 Sept attended ceremony commemorating Japanese WWII surrender; Xi criticised Japan’s handling of history, current Japanese military reform. Trilateral meeting held 19 Sept between Chinese, Japanese and South Korean finance ministers, agreement to reinforce economic cooperation despite geopolitical tension.

Asia

China/Japan

Tensions continued despite diplomatic efforts: Chinese FM Wang Yi 9 Aug met Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida at ASEAN Regional Forum in Myanmar, discussed measures to improve bilateral ties reportedly including meeting between Chinese President Xi and Japanese PM Abe. Former Japanese PM Yasuo Fukuda 27 Aug confirmed meeting Xi in July, said no preconditions for meeting between Xi and Abe. Members of Abe’s cabinet 15 Aug visited Yakusuni Shrine on anniversary of Japanese surrender in WWII; Abe sent ritual offerings, spokesman 27 Aug revealed he also sent message honouring convicted war criminals as “martyrs” to April annual ceremony; both incidents drew sharp criticism from China. Tokyo 5 Aug released first defence ministry white paper since reinterpretation of constitution’s Article 9 lifting ban on collective self-defence, criticised China for “dangerous acts”; Tokyo 1 Aug named 158 islands including 5 islets in disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu island group; Beijing criticized moves.

Asia

China/Japan

Japanese govt 1 July announced reinterpretation of  constitution’s Article 9, effectively lifting ban on collective self-defence. Japanese PM Abe 14 July called for meeting with Chinese President Xi at Nov APEC summit in Beijing; Chinese and Japanese officials reportedly held secret meeting to discuss possibility mid-July. China’s central archives 3 July began publishing alleged confessions of 45 WWII Japanese war criminals. Xi 7 July became first president to participate in commemoration of 1937 Marco Polo Bridge Incident that marked start of Second Sino-Japanese War.

Asia

China/Japan

Former Chinese State Councillor Tang Jiaxuan 5 June visited Nagasaki, part of highest-level delegation to visit Japan since Japanese purchase of Senkaku Islands in 2012, said tensions over  islands  temporary.  Chinese  FM  spokeswoman Hua Chunying 20 June denounced Japanese review of 1993 apology for “comfort women” during WWII. Japan 11 June accused 2 Chinese SU-27 fighter jets of flying within 30 metres of Japanese surveillance planes; Japanese vice FM summoned Chinese Ambassador Cheng Yonghua, lodged strong complaint. China denied allegation, said Japanese aircraft acted dangerously and provocatively.

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