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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

China/Japan

Tensions continued between Japan and China over disputed island chain in East China Sea as U.S. reaffirmed its support for Tokyo. Following tensions in Feb over new Chinese Coast Guard Law,Chinese defence ministry 1 March defended its coast guard activities in area near disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in East China Sea and urged Japan not to take “dangerous actions that may complicate” situation in area; Japanese Defence Minister Kishi Nobuo 2 March told media that such activities are unacceptable as islands are part of Japanese territory. Chinese defence ministry 2 March confirmed that Beijing and Tokyo have expanded their military hotlines. Two Chinese coast guard ships 29 March entered Japanese waters around Senkaku Islands, prompting Tokyo to lodge protest with Bejing. U.S. Sec Defence Lloyd Austin and Sec State Antony Blinken 15-17 March visited Japan and 16 March met with FM Toshimitsu Motegi and Defence Minister Kishi in Japanese capital Tokyo to discuss China’s “destabilising actions” in South and East China Seas; Blinken same day warned that U.S. “will push back if necessary, when China uses coercion or aggression to get its way"; Kishi and Austin also reached agreement to hold joint exercises between Japanese Self-Defence Forces and U.S. military in preparation for contingencies involving Senkaku Islands. In response, Chinese MFA called joint statement “malicious attack” and “gross interference in China’s internal affairs.” Tokyo and Indonesia 30 March signed deal to bolster security ties; Motegi said parties “exchanged views on the situation in the East and South China seas” and “shared serious concern about[…]unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force”. Municipal govt of Ishigaki in Japan’s Okinawa Prefecture, which has jurisdiction over Senkaku Islands, 16 March confirmed it had applied to central govt for approval to install signposts on islands with newly chosen district name “Tonoshiro Senkaku”.

Asia

China/Japan

Tokyo expressed concern over new Chinese Coast Guard Law as Beijing deployed vessels to waters around contested island chain in East China Sea. After new Chinese Coast Guard Law – authorising “all necessary means” to deter threats posed by foreign vessels in waters “under China’s jurisdiction” – came into effect 1 Feb, Tokyo 3 Feb said it had conveyed “strong concerns” to Beijing over legislation; China 4 Feb claimed new law is in accordance with international law. Japanese govt officials 25 Feb indicated that Japan Coast Guard could directly fire on foreign official vessels aiming to land on Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Meanwhile, Japan Coast Guard reported several incursions of Chinese vessels into disputed waters around Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, including: two Chinese vessels 6 Feb; four Chinese vessels 15-16 Feb, one of which armed with cannon-like weapon; and two Chinese coast guard vessels 20-21 Feb; in each instance, Japan Coast Guard deployed vessels to area to protect fishing ships while urging Chinese ships to leave territorial waters; Tokyo 8 Feb confirmed it had protested to Beijing over recent incursions. Japan 15 Feb announced that it will build three transport ships designed to supply ammunition, fuel and provisions to troops stationed on its outlying islands. Japanese and U.S. coast guard patrol vessels 21 Feb conducted joint exercises and operations near Ogasawara Islands. On diplomatic front, Japan and UK 3 Feb issued joint statement urging all parties to “exercise self-restraint and refrain from activities likely to raise tensions” in East and South China Seas. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken and Japanese FM Toshimitsu Motegi 10 Feb discussed concerns over increasing Chinese assertiveness around disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and reaffirmed strength of U.S.-Japan alliance. In first meeting since Oct, top diplomats of Australia, India, Japan and U.S. 18 Feb met for virtual “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue”, during which they agreed to “strongly” oppose any actions by China to alter status quo in region by force, according to FM Motegi. Japanese defence ministry 20 Feb announced French Navy vessel will conduct surveillance in East China Sea until early March aimed at supporting sanctions on North Korea.

Asia

China/Japan

Tensions continued between Japan and China over contested island chain in East China Sea. Japan’s coast guard 13 Jan reported four Chinese ships temporarily entered Japanese territorial waters near disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi 14 Jan held online meeting with UK counterpart Ben Wallace to discuss regional issues; both leaders agreed to “strongly oppose” unilateral changes to status quo in East China Sea through force, and Kishi welcomed PM Johnson’s Nov announcement to deploy carrier strike group led by UK’s flagship HMS Queen Elizabeth to region in 2021. Incoming Japanese Ambassador to China Hideo Tarumi 20 Jan said Tokyo and Beijing should focus on fighting COVID-19 before holding high-level talks. Chinese govt 22 Jan passed Coast Guard Law allowing coast guard to use “all necessary means” to stop or prevent threats from foreign vessels to safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and maritime rights. New U.S. Sec Def Lloyd Austin 24 Jan had first telephone call with Kishi during which he reaffirmed that Article 5 of U.S.-Japan security treaty, which stipulates U.S. defence obligations to Japan, covers Senkaku/Diaoyuislands; China 28 Jan responded that islands are “China's inherent territory”.

Asia

China/Japan

Tensions persisted between Japan and China over contested island chain in East China Sea, while Tokyo continued security engagement with broad range of international stakeholders. Amid increased Chinese military activity in East and South China Seas, Japan, France and U.S. 6 Dec confirmed they would hold joint land and sea military drills in May 2021 for first time on one of Japan’s outlying islands. Japanese Ground Self-Defence Force and U.S. military 2-15 Dec held traditional large-scale joint military drill in southwestern Japan and 7 Dec launched separate exercise north west of Japan’s capital Tokyo; both drills focused on repelling attacks on remote islands. Four Chinese H-6K and two Russian Tu-95 bombers 22 Dec took part in joint patrol over Sea of Japan and East China Sea; Japanese Air Self-Defence Force scrambled fighters to monitor bombers. Japanese media reported that two Chinese ships 26 Dec entered Japanese territorial waters near disputed Senkaku Islands; Japanese Coast Guard Service urged violators to leave country's territorial waters. Chinese National Defence Minister Wei Fenghe and Japanese counterpart Nobuo Kishi 14 Dec discussed via videoconference ongoing tensions in disputed East China Sea; Kyodo News reported that Kishi expressed concerns over Chinese ships “repeatedly sailing close to and entering the waters” around Senkaku Islands, while both ministers reiterated commitment to establish hotline between their officials. Kishi 15 Dec held online talks with German counterpart Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, during which he called on Berlin to send vessel to participate in joint exercises with Japanese Self-Defence Force units in 2021. Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Kishi 22 Dec discussed regional security situation during phone conversation, including East and South China Seas, and reaffirmed continued close cooperation

Asia

China/Japan

Tensions continued between Japan and China over contested island chain in East China Sea; meanwhile, Tokyo and Canberra announced landmark military pact. Amid recent tensions over Chinese military activity in Asia-Pacific region, Australian PM Scott Morrison and Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga 17 Nov met in Japan’s capital Tokyo to discuss recent developments in South and East China Seas; meeting culminated in Reciprocal Access Agreement to bolster defence ties, allowing Japanese and Australian troops to conduct training and joint operations, and permitting rapid deployment of defence forces to each country. Both leaders same day expressed “serious concerns” about situation in East China Sea, vowing “strong opposition to any coercive unilateral actions”. Chinese state media 18 Nov criticised deal that “clearly targets China” and “further accelerates the confrontational atmosphere” in region, while Commander of U.S. Navy Seventh Fleet Vice Admiral William Merz 19 Nov welcomed pact as “encouraging to everybody in the region”. Following incursion of two Chinese coastguard vessels into Japanese territorial waters in mid-Oct, President-elect Joe Biden 12 Nov confirmed during phone conversation with PM Suga his commitment to strengthening U.S.-Japan alliance to achieve free and open Indo-Pacific, and that Article 5 of 1951 Japan-U.S. Security Treaty – specifically U.S. obligation to defend Japan should its territories come under attack – would be applied to Okinawa Prefecture and Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Chinese FM Wang Yi 24 Nov met with Japanese FM Toshimitsu Motegi in Tokyo where both agreed to continue communication on issues regarding East China Sea and to ease restrictions on business travels imposed in wake of COVID-19 by end of month.

Asia

China/Japan

Tensions continued between Japan and China over contested island chain in East China Sea, while Tokyo and Washington began biannual military exercises. Beijing 3 Oct opened digital museum claiming “legal and historical proof” that disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands belong to China; Tokyo 5 Oct demanded museum website be taken down. Two Chinese coastguard vessels 11-13 Oct entered Japanese territorial waters around Senkaku/Diaoyu, staying for record 57-hour period; during stay, the vessels 12 Oct approached Japanese fishing boat in area, prompting Tokyo to send coastguard for protection and to lodge protest with Beijing over incident. Japanese Self-Defence Forces 9 Oct conducted anti-submarine drill in South China Sea. U.S. and Japan 26 Oct began biannual “Keen Sword” military exercises around Japan involving air, sea and land forces and including cyber and electronic warfare for first time; drills to run until 5 Nov; commander of U.S. forces 26 Oct said exercises would demonstrate forces’ ability “to defend the Senkakus”. New Japanese PM Suga 18-21 Oct visited Vietnam and Indonesia in first trips abroad; Suga and Vietnamese PM Phuc 19 Oct agreed to increase security cooperation, including by Tokyo exporting military equipment to Vietnam, while Suga next day agreed to increase speed of defence and trade talks with Indonesian President Widodo; Chinese state-run Global Times newspaper 19 Oct quoted Chinese analysts saying deals targeted China and could “cast a shadow over regional stability and peace” in South China Sea. In first speech to parliament, Suga 26 Oct stressed importance of stable China-Japan relations for both countries and region.

Asia

China/Japan

Tensions continued between Japan and China over contested island chain in East China Sea. Japanese Defence Minister Taro Kono 9 Sept said China was “national security threat” to Japan, while FM Motegi same day expressed concern over China’s actions in South China Sea at summit of South East Asia regional organisation ASEAN. Some 100 lawmakers from Japanese ruling-Liberal Democratic Party 17 Sept called for joint U.S.-Japan military drills around Nansei island chain, which includes disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands; in response to group’s call, Chinese MFA same day said islands are “China’s inherent territory”. Yoshihide Suga 16 Sept assumed office as Japanese PM, replacing Abe who resigned in Aug citing health reasons, with continuity in foreign policy expected; Suga same day appointed Nobuo Kishi as defence secretary, placing Kono in charge of administrative reform; Chinese state-run Global Times newspaper 20 Sept said “strategic framework of China-Japan relations will remain unchanged”; Suga and Chinese President Xi 25 Sept held phone call and agreed to continue high-level contacts but did not discuss Xi’s suspended state visit to Tokyo. Japan and India 10 Sept signed agreement for “closer cooperation between the Armed Forces of India and Japan”; during call same day, Indian PM Modi and PM Abe welcomed agreement, saying it would strengthen contributions to “peace and security in the Indo-Pacific region”. Japanese defence ministry 30 Sept announced draft budget with 8.3% increase, largest rise in two decades.

Asia

China/Japan

Tensions continued between Japan and China over contested island chain in East China Sea. Japanese coast guard 3 Aug reported no Chinese vessels seen near disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands due to Typhoon Hagupit, ending 111 consecutive days of continuous presence since April; Japanese Defence Minister Taro Kono 4 Aug said military would support coast guard over island dispute and “act firmly when necessary” and 18 Aug reportedly told Chinese ambassador to Japan that China should refrain from military activities around islands. Japanese PM Shinzo Abe 28 Aug announced his resignation over health issues. Some 60 lawmakers from ruling Liberal Democratic Party in Japan 17 Aug formed pressure group to urge govt actions to control islands. Kono and U.S. Defence Secretary Mark Esper 29 Aug met at U.S. military base in Guam, agreeing to “oppose countries unilaterally changing the status quo by force” in South and East China seas. Amid arrest of activists in Hong Kong under controversial new security law, Japanese govt 11 Aug voiced concerns over territory and said it was important for Hong Kong to “develop democratically and in a stable manner”; Beijing same day called on Japan to “stop interfering in China’s internal affairs”.

Asia

China/Japan

Tensions continued between China and Japan over disputed island chain in East China Sea while Japan concluded annual defence review. Chinese coastguard vessels 2-5 July twice entered Japanese territorial waters around disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, staying for periods over 30 hours; Tokyo 6 July said it lodged diplomatic protests with Beijing. China early July conducted military exercises, including live fire, in East China and Yellow Seas. Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party 3 July drafted resolution calling on PM Shinzo Abe to cancel planned state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Tokyo. Japanese govt 14 July published annual white paper on defence policy, accusing China of “relentlessly continued unilateral attempts to change the status quo by coercion” around Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Japanese media 19 July reported Tokyo’s Air Self-Defence Force has adopted policy of scrambling fighter jets against all military aircraft taking off from Chinese base in Fujian province near contested islands. Chief cabinet secretary 22 July said Chinese ships were spotted near Senkaku/Diaoyu islands for 100th straight day. In joint statement following 9 July virtual meeting, Abe and Australian PM Scott Morrison reiterated “strong opposition to any coercive or unilateral actions that could alter the status quo or increase tensions in the East and South China Seas”. U.S. envoy for North Korea Stephen Biegun 9-10 July met Japanese officials in Tokyo to “reaffirm the strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance” and promote “free and open Indo-Pacific”; U.S. 9 July approved sale of 105 F-35 fighter jets to Tokyo; Chinese state media Global Times 12 July called purchases “worrying” and raised concerns “Japan will break its peaceful constitution”. Commander of U.S. forces in Japan 29 July said Washington “steadfast” in support for “situation in Senkaku”, offering reconnaissance support of Chinese coastguard vessels around islands; in response, Beijing same day reiterated claim to islands and said it was its right “to patrol these waters and conduct law enforcement”. China 1 July released Japanese man detained in 2015 and sentenced to prison in 2018 on spying charges.

Asia

China/Japan

Tensions continued over disputed island chain in East China Sea. Japan’s Okinawa city council 22 June approved bill changing administrative status of disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in East China Sea, asserting Japanese claim to islands; Beijing same day said it would lodge strong protest with Tokyo and warned “administrative re-designation is a serious provocation”, after Chinese Foreign Ministry 19 June cautioned against any change to status quo.  Amid daily Chinese maritime presence around disputed islands since 14 April, Japanese coast guard 22 June reported four Chinese coast guard vessels in contiguous zone outside Japanese territorial waters. Japanese military 20 June reported detecting suspected Chinese submarine near Amami-Oshima island in East China Sea. Lawmakers from Japan’s ruling-Liberal Democratic party 4 June submitted resolution calling on govt to protest China’s “stalking” of Japanese boats in waters near islands. Amid controversy surrounding new Chinese national security law in Hong Kong, Beijing 10 June criticised Japanese PM Abe’s effort to take lead on G7 (group of seven nations including U.S. and Japan) statement on proposed legislation; G7 statement, released 17 June, highlighted “grave concerns” and urged China “to re-consider this decision”; Japanese Defence Minister Taro Kono 30 June said passage of law would “significantly affect” Chinese President Xi’s planned state visit to Japan.

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