Following May visit of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to Japan, Chinese foreign ministry 5 July announced invitation to Japanese PM Abe to visit Beijing later in 2018, ahead of planned visit by Chinese President Xi to Tokyo in 2019 for G20 summit. Li 24 July called for healthy, stable ties between China and Japan in meeting with speaker of Japanese parliament in Beijing. Japan reported it scrambled fighter jets 27 July to intercept Chinese Y-9 electronic surveillance aircraft over Sea of Japan.

China and Japan 8 June officially opened hotline for preventing accidental clashes at sea and in air, 30 days after their May agreement to create Maritime and Aerial Communication Mechanism.

During official visit of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to Japan, the two countries’ defence ministries 9 May concluded ten years of negotiations by agreeing to create a maritime and aerial communication crisis management mechanism including hotline for senior military officials to talk in case of incidents involving navies or air forces, particularly in and around East China Sea; mechanism also mandates common radio frequency for captains and pilots; and commitment to hold regular military dialogues. Hotline expected to reduce risk that assertive or aggressive manoeuvres could spark conflict by creating channel for discussion and de-escalation. China and Japan also agreed to deepen relations in other areas, including establishing public-private sector council on cooperation projects related to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. During 9 May trilateral summit in Tokyo, leaders of China, Japan and South Korea issued a joint declaration on their shared commitment to Korean peninsula denuclearisation. Japan 15 May approved new Basic Plan on Ocean Policy, for first time playing down role of economic development to focus on security concerns; plan will improve radar coverage and satellite surveillance, and promote measures to protect uninhabited islands. At eighth Pacific islands leaders’ meeting 18-19 May, Japanese PM promised to support Pacific islands nations to improve capacity to “protect the sea”, including through legal enforcement capabilities.

Further signs of improving relations between China and Japan ahead of planned early May bilateral visit by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to Japan and trilateral summit also involving South Korean President Moon. China’s state councillor and foreign minister travelled to Japan 13-15 April to attend fourth China-Japan High-level Economic Dialogue, first such visit in eight years. Japan 15 April confirmed that it would consider cooperating on Belt and Road Initiative projects on case-by-case basis. Japanese and Chinese militaries 17 April resumed personnel exchange program that was halted in 2012 after Japan nationalised disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands; leading delegation to Tokyo 17 April, Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Major General Ci Guowei reportedly said program a precious asset, should become driving force for promoting bilateral relations. China and Japan also held ninth round of High-level Consultations on Maritime Affairs 19-20 April, producing agreement for their maritime transportation departments to restart China-Japan Shipping Policy Forum. Chinese official media welcomed focus on trade and improving relations, although Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono stressed “there will be no genuine improvement in the Japan-China relations without stability in the East China Sea”. China’s PLA Air Force, which has continued to expand its areas of operation and exercises, conducted new exercises over East and South China Seas 23 March, 18 April and 26 April after flying through Miyako Strait between two southern Japanese islands. Japan 7 April activated 2,100-member Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade for first time since World War II. Japan’s Self-Defence Force 13 April reported 23% drop in intercepts by its fighter jets for 2017; intercepts included 500 jet scrambles in response to PLA Air Force, 390 for Russian planes.

Japanese media 27 Feb reported Japan plans to deploy anti-ship missiles on Okinawa’s main island, covering entire Miyako Strait, one of China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)’s principal routes to reach Pacific Ocean. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang 19 March said he would consider formal visit to Japan and hopes to see continuing improvements in relations. Ahead of planned trilateral Japan-China-South Korea summit early May, Chinese FM Wang Yi scheduled to visit Japan mid-April.

Three Chinese coast guard ships 21 Feb patrolled waters near disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands; Japan warned them to leave area.

Four Chinese coast guard ships 7 Jan sailed through waters near disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, prompting warning by Japan’s coast guard. Japan 11 Jan said it had sighted Chinese frigate and submarine near Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands’ territorial waters; lodged formal protest, 15 Jan said China’s actions “unilaterally raises tensions”. U.S. 20 Jan announced its 2018 National Defense Strategy, which characterised China as strategic competitor reinforcing likelihood of continued tensions and potential for unintended clashes, particularly in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS). Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono 27-28 Jan made first official visit to Beijing since 2016 and met Chinese Premier Li Keqiang; discussions focused on North Korea, ECS dispute, planned trilateral China-Japan-South Korea summit and plans to establish military hotline.

During eighth round of High-Level Consultations on Maritime Affairs in Shanghai 5-6 Dec, China and Japan agreed to more communication between their defence authorities and made progress in establishing maritime and aerial communication mechanism to prevent incidents in East China Sea (ECS); terms of deal reportedly exclude mention of disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and do not specify mechanism’s geographic scope, agreeing that system will not affect legal positions of either side. Japan’s cabinet 22 Dec approved record high defence budget that increases defence spending by 1.3%, including plans to purchase two U.S.-built anti-missile systems, and funds for new bases on Ryukyu (Nansei) Islands on eastern edge of ECS; Japanese defence minister said Japan will also deploy cruise missiles to deter invasion of islands. On 80th anniversary of Nanjing Massacre by Japanese troops 20 Dec, China called for greater cooperation with Japan to maintain peace, while Japan’s chief cabinet secretary spoke of importance of looking to the future.

On sidelines of APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Vietnam 11 Nov, Japanese PM Abe and Chinese President Xi agreed to work more closely on North Korea and to hold trilateral summit with South Korea at earliest possible date; also agreed to speed up talks over communication mechanism between their militaries. Abe also met Chinese Premier Li Keqiang 13 Nov in Manila; both urged development of “strategic, mutually beneficial relationship”. During visit to Japan 5-7 Nov as part of Asia tour, U.S. President Trump said Japan had agreed to “massive” defence purchases from U.S., and Abe said Japan will deploy F-35A Lighting Joint Strike Fighter jets and Aegis Ashore missile defence system. U.S. media 31 Oct reported arrival of first two of twelve U.S. Air Force F-35s for six-month tour in Japan; Japanese, Indian and U.S. navies early Nov conducted three-day joint exercise in Sea of Japan. Abe 31 Oct met NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg; both expressed concern about situation in East China and South China seas, and reaffirmed opposition to unilateral action.

Congratulating new members of China’s Politburo Standing Committee, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary 25 Oct said Tokyo hopes to improve relationship with China; also said Tokyo still trying to organise trilateral summit with Chinese and South Korean leaders before year-end. Chinese and Japanese foreign and defence ministers met in Tokyo 27 Oct; Japan reportedly urged China to be transparent about military expansion to help build trust. Sides also agreed to continue efforts to begin maritime hotline to avoid accidental clashes in East China Sea as soon as possible. Japanese PM Abe won snap election 22 Oct, in result seen as supporting his push to deepen alliance with U.S. and amend constitution to unfetter military.