CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Following mid-Oct reports of new Chinese drilling activities in East China Sea (ECS), Japanese FM Fumio Kishida 1 Nov said govt had evidence of Chinese “mobile oil prospecting ship” spotted near disputed gas fields. Japan 1 Nov lodged protest with Beijing; Chinese FM said all drilling activities were in Chinese waters, urged Japan to stop “making inappropriate comments”. Chinese President Xi and Japanese PM Abe 20 Nov met briefly on sidelines of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru, agreed on importance of improving bilateral relations by resolving longstanding disputes. Japanese Deputy FM Takeo Akiba and Chinese Assistant FM Kong Xuanyou 28 Nov met in Beijing, in first security dialogue since March 2015: reportedly discussed ECS disputes and North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Akiba called dialogue “indispensable”; Kong said China hopes talks will enhance “momentum of improving ties between the two countries”.
Japanese FM 12 Oct released aerial photos indicating new activities at two of sixteen Chinese oil and gas exploration platforms in disputed East China Sea (ECS). Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga condemned China’s “unilateral development”, urged resumption of negotiations over joint development pursuant to 2008 “Principled Consensus” agreement to cooperatively develop undersea oil and gas fields surrounding Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Chinese FM 13 Oct said all exploration activities were “in waters under indisputable jurisdiction of China” and “completely within China’s sovereign rights”. Japanese media 10 Oct said Tokyo plans to quadruple manpower and equipment and deploy enhanced patrol vessels to deter Chinese fishing boats near disputed islands in ECS.
Chinese President Xi and Japanese PM Abe 5 Sept met on sidelines of G20 summit in Hangzhou in first one-on-one meeting since Dec 2015. Xi said countries should “put aside disruptions” and normalise relations. Both leaders urged caution on South and East China Sea issues. China and Japan 14-15 Sept held fifth round of high-level consultations on maritime affairs; reportedly agreed to accelerate negotiations on planned Maritime and Air Communications Mechanism to mitigate risk of military and law enforcement clashes. Both reaffirmed need for earliest possible signing of bilateral maritime search and rescue agreement. Fleet of over 40 Chinese aircraft 25 Sept flew through strategically important Miyako Strait for the first time on way to “regular training” in Western Pacific; Japan responded sending jets to scramble Chinese aircraft.
Tensions escalated as Japan protested increasing Chinese activities in disputed East China Sea (ECS). Japan defence ministry 2 Aug released annual defence white paper; reported interception of record high of 571 Chinese aircrafts in 2015 fiscal year; also cited “deep concern” over Chinese maritime assertiveness. China responded accusing Japan of distorting China’s “justified and reasonable defence work” and “attempting to deceive” international community. Tokyo lodged series of complaints to Chinese ambassador throughout month on Chinese activities in disputed waters in ECS: Japanese FM said Chinese Coast Guard vessels had entered contiguous zone around Senkaku/Diaoyu; Japan Coast Guard 6 Aug said some 230 Chinese fishing vessels had entered contested waters in ECS since 5 Aug, escorted by Chinese Coast Guard; Japan’s Kyodo News 7 Aug reported a record thirteen Chinese Coast Guard vessels sighted in contested waters since 5 Aug. Tokyo 5 Aug issued protest against China’s installation of first radar unit on offshore gas platform near disputed waters in ECS. Group of Japanese cabinet members and political leaders 15 Aug visited controversial Yasukuni Shrine to commemorate anniversary of Japan’s WWII surrender; China condemned visit, urged Japan to “face up to and reflect upon the history of aggression”. Japanese and Chinese FMs 24 Aug met in Tokyo, agreed to “make efforts” to resolve disputes and build “good atmosphere” for talks between President Xi and PM Abe at Sept G20 Summit in Hangzhou.
Chinese defence ministry 4 July issued statement criticising Japan for 17 June encounter over East China Sea (ECS) in which it claimed two Japanese fighter jets reportedly warned and intercepted “at high speed” two Chinese jets executing “routine patrol” over China’s ECS Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary 5 July denied Japanese jets took any provocative actions; also denied 28 June report of same encounter by Japanese Air Self-Defence Force (ASDF) officer alleging Chinese aircraft launched threatening attack manoeuvre. Japan’s Self-Defence Force Chief of Joint Staff 30 June announced number of scrambles of ASDF fighters against Chinese aircraft from April-June increased by more than 80 from 114 over same period in 2015.
Japanese FM 2 June lodged protest with Chinese embassy over China’s construction of new drilling towers in East China Sea (ECS) near median line between countries’ coastlines; said construction indicated China’s continued development of gas fields in violation of 2008 agreement on joint development in ECS. Chinese frigate 9 June sailed within contiguous zone around disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands; Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force (MSDF) issued warning and monitored vessel, Tokyo lodged diplomatic protest. MSDF 15 June reported it had spotted Chinese naval intelligence ship in Japanese territorial waters west of Kuchinoerabu Island in Kagoshima prefecture; Japanese foreign ministry same day expressed concern to Chinese embassy over China’s general naval activity. Chinese defence ministry said exercising right to innocent passage stipulated in UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. U.S. said Chinese fighter jet 7 June conducted “unsafe” intercept of U.S. aircraft conducting routine patrol in international airspace over ECS, also said Chinese jet was never within more than 100 feet of U.S. aircraft; China blamed frequent U.S. reconnaissance of Chinese coastal areas, asserted its right to take defensive moves and urged U.S. to cease reconnaissance activity.
Japanese official 9 May said Japan and China considering ministerial-level economic meetings in Tokyo, possibly in coming months, which would be first such dialogue since Aug 2010; also said Japan hoped talks would lead to meeting between PM Abe and President Xi on sidelines of Sept G20 summit. Followed FM-level meetings late April in which Chinese FM Wang Yi made four-point requirement on improving relations. Japan 16 May announced plans to conduct joint naval exercises in East China Sea with U.S. in June.
Japan 29 March enacted new national security law passed Sept 2015 which allows exercise of right to collective self-defence in conflicts threatening its existence, expands Self-Defence Forces’ logistic support missions to assist non-U.S. forces, allows combat roles in peacekeeping missions; China criticised law. Japanese Coast Guard 4 April announced it had finished deploying twelve ships to patrol area around disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Japanese foreign ministry 15 April released 2016 Diplomatic Bluebook noting Chinese ships’ frequent entry into waters near disputed islands, said Tokyo ready to approach dispute calmly. Chinese foreign ministry 18 April stressed its sovereignty over Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and adjacent waters, noted importance of stable China-Japan relationship. Japanese, Chinese FMs met 30 April to discuss possible meeting between PM Abe and President Xi.
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party 16 March passed resolu- tion urging govt to consider seeking international arbitration over China’s drilling activities in East China Sea (ECS), specifically its unilateral exploration of Chunxiao gas field, citing China’s breach of 2008 agreement to jointly develop gas field. Japan expanded ECS surveillance network around disputed islands; new radar observation station on Yonaguni Island went online 28 March. Chinese FM Wang Yi 8 March said future of China-Japan relations does not “allow for optimism”; Japanese FM Fumio Kishida 11 March said enhancing dialogue with China a priority. During 15 March phone call Chinese and Japanese FMs agreed to closely coordinate implementation of UNSC resolution against North Korea; call was first exchange between them since Nov 2015.
Japan Air Self-Defence Force 31 Jan launched new unit of ten F-15 fighters as part of efforts to defend Ryukyu/Nansei islands, which include disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Chinese navy 24 Feb commissioned advanced missile frigate to East Sea Fleet. Commander of U.S. Pacific Command late Jan said U.S. would defend Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in case of attack by China, in accordance with treaty obligations. Chinese media 15 Feb reported fleet of F-22 Raptors, suspected of belonging to U.S., had flown across ECS.
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