China conducted live-fire military drills, U.S. and EU voiced concern over Chinese actions, and South Korea and Australia reaffirmed commitment to international law. Chinese media 7 Dec reported that Chinese military practiced dropping live bombs and laying sea mines on South China Sea (SCS) islands using H-6J strategic bombers. Beijing think-tank South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative 14 Dec claimed U.S. Air Force sent spy plane on reconnaissance mission along Chinese coast, near locations of Chinese live-fire drills; at least two drills concluded 17 Dec near Hainan Island and in Beibu Gulf between China and Vietnam. Chinese media 19 Dec reported Chinese aircraft carrier set out for combat drills in SCS; 29 Dec reported exercises of amphibious assault ship Hainan in SCS. U.S. Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman and EU European External Action Service Sec Gen Stefano Sannino 3 Dec said China’s actions in SCS, East China Seas and Taiwan Strait “undermine peace and security in the region”, expressing “strong concern” over China’s “problematic and unilateral actions” in disputed seas in Indo-Pacific that “run counter to the shared values and interests of the United States and the EU”. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken in 14 Dec visit to Indonesia said U.S. is “determined to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea”. Australian PM Scott Morrison and South Korean President Moon Jae-in 13 Dec adopted joint statement recognising “stability of the Indo-Pacific depends on adherence to international law in the maritime domain, including in the South China Sea”. Indonesian House of Representatives member Muhammad Farhan 1 Dec said China demanded Jakarta stop oil and gas drilling at sea, claiming drills took place in waters claimed by China, and that Beijing protested joint military exercises with U.S. held in Aug.

Maritime incident between Philippines and China at shoal in Spratly Islands further crystallised regional tensions. Philippine FM Teodoro Locsin Jr 18 Nov condemned three Chinese coast guard vessels for 16 Nov blocking and using water cannons against two Philippine supply boats en route to Second Thomas Shoal/Ayungin Shoal, Philippines-controlled atoll in Spratly Islands also claimed by China. China’s foreign ministry same day said Philippine boats entered waters near shoal “without China’s consent” and its “coastguards, vessels, upheld China’s sovereignty in accordance with law”. Manila 17 Nov lodged diplomatic protest with Beijing, while U.S. 19 Nov reaffirmed “that an armed attack on Philippine public vessels in the South China Sea would invoke U.S. mutual defence commitments”. After summoning Chinese ambassador in Oct over maritime incursions into its exclusive economic zone, Malaysia’s foreign ministry 11 Nov reported support for continuing code of conduct negotiations between regional body ASEAN and China; Chinese FM Wang Yi 14 Nov expressed desire to fast-track code of conduct negotiations. Summit between China and ten ASEAN countries partly focused on South China Sea held 22 Nov, with parties supporting “early conclusion of an effective and substantive [code of conduct] that is in accordance with international law including the 1982 UNCLOS, within a mutually-agreed timeline”. Two Japanese vessels 5-7 Nov conducted exercise with the Vietnam People’s Navy frigate Đinh Tiên Hoàng in Cam Ranh city, Vietnam, and Japanese navy 16 Nov held first joint anti-submarine drill with U.S. in South China Sea. Vietnam’s foreign ministry 18 Nov called patrols and military drills by Taiwan in sea surrounding Itu Aba island, part of Vietnam’s claim to Spratlys, “serious violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty over the islands” that risks “escalating and complicating the situation”. German Vice-Admiral Kay-Achim Schonbach 6 Nov signalled willingness to dispatch vessel to Indo-Pacific every two years to maintain rules-based order. 

U.S., UK and allies conducted joint maritime exercises throughout month, while Malaysia protested Chinese maritime presence in country’s exclusive economic zone. Maritime activity continued. Chinese research institute 4 Oct reported USS Carl Vinson and HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carriers had crossed Bashi Channel and entered South China Sea (SCS) for second time since July. USS Ronald Reagan and USS Carl Vinson carrier strike groups, alongside UK Royal Navy carrier strike group and Japan Maritime Self-Defence Forces, 2-3 Oct conducted operations in Philippine Sea; drills included navy frigates and personnel from Canada, the Netherlands and New Zealand. U.S. nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Connecticut 2 Oct collided with “unknown underwater object” in SCS. HMS Queen Elizabeth 9-10 Oct conducted joint exercises with Singapore military. Five Power Defence Arrangements nations – Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore and UK – 8-18 Oct conducted sea and air exercises in SCS to mark fiftieth anniversary of alliance. USS Carl Vinson strike group 25 Oct began joint training exercises with Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force’s JS Kaga in SCS. Meanwhile, Malaysian foreign ministry 4 Oct said it had summoned Chinese ambassador for second time this year to “protest against the presence and activities of Chinese vessels, including a survey vessel, in Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone off the coasts of Sabah and Sarawak”; Chinese survey vessel left zone 18 Oct. Following high-level meeting in Indonesian capital Jakarta 18 Oct, Malaysian FM Saifuddin Abdullah expressed “concern and disturbance” over Australia-UK-U.S. “AUKUS” defence pact while Indonesian FM Retno Marsudi warned of tensions caused by “arms race and power projection”.

Australia, UK and U.S. unveiled trilateral defence pact that provoked mixed reactions in region, while Chinese naval forces conducted military exercises. Australia, UK and U.S. 15 Sept announced “enhanced trilateral partnership” dubbed “AUKUS”, which includes key agreement to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines and provisions to cooperate on emerging technologies. Chinese foreign ministry next day said AUKUS would “seriously damage regional peace and stability, exacerbate an arms race and harm international nuclear non-proliferation agreements”. Malaysian PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob in 17 Sept phone call to Australian PM Scott Morrison said agreement could “provoke other powers to act more aggressively, especially within the South China Sea”, while Indonesian foreign ministry same day said it was “deeply concerned over the continuing arms race and power projection in the region”. Filipino FM Teodoro Locsin Jr 19 Sept expressed support, saying the “enhancement of a near abroad ally’s ability to project power should restore and keep the balance rather than destabilise it”. Meanwhile, Chinese state media 8 Sept reported its naval forces same day conducted amphibious landing exercise in SCS, 9-10 Sept conducted live-fire exercises in western area of Leizhou Peninsula, and 18 Sept dispatched Y-20 large transport aircraft from mainland to airfields in Spratly Islands to conduct “amphibious landing drills”, marking first time China dispatched large transport aircraft near reefs according to Chinese media. Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi 11 Sept visited Vietnam, reportedly told Vietnamese Deputy PM Phạm Bình Minh that both countries should refrain from exacerbating maritime disputes. German foreign ministry 15 Sept said China had denied request for Shanghai port visit of its frigate embarking on six-month mission to SCS. U.S. Navy Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group returned to SCS 24 Sept for exercises and training. EU 16 Sept released Indo-Pacific strategy urging “cooperation to maintain and ensure maritime security and freedom of navigation”. Joint statement following first in-person leaders’ summit of “Quad” on 24 Sept noted commitment to “freedom of navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes” in Indo-Pacific.

Region witnessed uptick in military activity as China as well as U.S. and its allies held naval exercises; Washington deepened diplomatic ties with claimant parties. U.S. 1 Aug concluded joint naval exercise off Australian coast, involving 17,000 military personnel from Australia, UK, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. U.S. 4 Aug announced further combined naval and amphibious exercise running until 27 Aug with Australia, Japan and UK, coinciding with global naval exercises, largest since 1981, that included two U.S. aircraft carriers and UK’s carrier; China 4 Aug announced military drills in SCS 6-10 Aug reportedly in response to “US military’s Indo-Pacific exercise”, according to state-run media. Malaysian military 6-12 Aug carried out exercise “Taming Sari” in SCS, including test-fire of three live anti-ship missiles. On diplomatic front, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 3 Aug announced launch of “strategic dialogue” with Indonesia and reaffirmed commitment to freedom of navigation. Blinken 9 Aug reaffirmed that “it is the business” of U.S. to resolve dispute in SCS and urged every member to “peacefully resolve disputes”; Chinese Deputy Ambassador to UN Dai Bing same day responded that U.S. failure to ratify UN Convention on Law of the Sea gave it “no credibility” and that U.S. is “biggest threat to stability” in region. U.S. VP Kamala Harris 22-24 Aug visited Singapore, affirming “commitment to a longstanding relationship...with the Indo-Pacific region”; Harris 24 Aug rebuked China for “coercion” in SCS. In Vietnam 24-27 Aug, Harris told Vietnamese officials that U.S. supports upgrading ties from comprehensive to strategic partnership. China 27 Aug issued new regulations requiring, from 1 Sept, range of foreign vessels to notify authorities when entering what Beijing claims are China’s territorial waters.

Maritime tensions continued amid regional military activity, while Canada, Germany and U.S. voiced support for 2016 international court ruling. Maritime activity continued in region. U.S. navy 12 July announced that destroyer USS Benfold conducted freedom of navigation operation near Paracel Islands “to uphold rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of sea recognised in international law”; in response, China’s Southern Theatre Command same day claimed its forces “drove away” USS Benfold from waters and urged U.S. to stop “provocative actions”. China’s Southern Theatre Command 18 July announced it had recently conducted exercise in SCS that included planes, ships, submarines and land-based missiles. Philippines’ Coast Guard 13 July issued verbal challenge to Chinese naval vessel near Marie Louise Bank; Chinese vessel eventually moved away from area. UK aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth 30 July arrived in SCS to conduct freedom of navigation operations alongside U.S. navy. Earlier in month, think-tank Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative 8 July reported China Coast Guard had regularly challenged Malaysian pipe-laying vessel contracted to Malaysian oil company Petronas at Kasawari gas field, off of Sarawak state coast, since its arrival in area early June. On diplomatic front, German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer 6 July met with Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe via video conference and discussed SCS; Kramp-Karrenbauer raised importance of upholding 2016 arbitration decision by Permanent Court of Arbitration that limited China’s claims to some sea areas, which China has called null and void. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 11 July issued statement to mark fifth anniversary of court’s ruling and reaffirmed U.S. support for verdict; Blinken also stated that “armed attack on Philippines armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft in South China Sea would invoke U.S. mutual defence commitments”. Canada’s foreign ministry 11 July issued statement expressing concern at “China’s escalatory and destabilising actions in the East and South China Seas” and support for 2016 arbitral tribunal award. U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin 26-30 July visited Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam; in Singapore, Austin 27 July said China’s SCS claims have “no basis in international law”.

Regional defence ministers expressed support for legally binding code of conduct in South China Sea (SCS), while tensions persisted between China and claimant parties. During Defence Minister’s Meeting Plus of South East Asia regional organisation ASEAN and partner countries, U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin 16 June highlighted China’s “unlawful behaviour” in SCS, while Chinese Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe said that “China is determined to safeguard the country’s core interests”. ASEAN ministers 16 June underlined in declaration need for “early conclusion of an effective and substantive [Code of Conduct]”. During visit to Indonesia’s capital Jakarta, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell 3 June said EU supports “ASEAN-led process towards an effective and legally binding Code of Conduct” for SCS. China National Radio 10 June reported that Chinese Army Rocket Force had recently conducted exercises involving “carrier killer” DF-26 ballistic missiles. Following late May flight of 16 Chinese Air Force planes within 110km of Malaysia’s Sarawak state, near Malaysian-administered Luconia Shoals, Kuala Lumpur dispatched pair of combat aircraft to identify and intercept Chinese aircraft and 1 June said it would summon China’s envoy; Chinese embassy in Kuala Lumpur 1 June insisted aircraft were on “routine flight training” manoeuvre, while Malaysian FM Hishammuddin Hussein called Chinese action “breach of the Malaysian airspace and sovereignty”. U.S. Navy 10 June reported that guided-missile destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur and Royal Australian Navy’s HMAS Ballarat 6-11 June held exercises in SCS. U.S. and Indonesia 25 June agreed plans for maritime training centre on Indonesia’s Batam Island in Singapore Strait.

Tensions persisted between Philippines and China over Chinese maritime presence at disputed reef in South China Sea (SCS). Following heated exchanges in April over incursion by Chinese vessels at disputed Whitsun Reef, Philippines 3 May confirmed it had lodged diplomatic protest over Chinese Coast Guard harassment of Philippine Coast Guard ships 24-25 April; Philippines 29 May confirmed it had filed 100 protest notes against China’s maritime presence in SCS since 2016. Philippine FM Teodoro Locsin 3 May tweeted that Chinese vessels should leave Manila’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Manila 5 May rejected annual summer fishing ban imposed by China in northern SCS. Philippine Navy 12 May reported that 287 Chinese maritime militia vessels were in Philippine waters as of 9 May. At 27th Southeast Asia Regional Group (ASEAN)-China Senior Officials’ Consultation, Philippine Acting Undersecretary for Bilateral Relations and ASEAN Affairs Elizabeth Buensuceso 18 May called on member states and China to comply with 1982 UN Convention on Law of Sea and to uphold 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties. Meanwhile, Chinese Navy 2 May said that its Shandong aircraft carrier task group conducted routine training exercises in SCS. U.S. guided-missile destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur 20 May conducted Freedom of Navigation operation in vicinity of Paracel Islands; Beijing same day said U.S. warship had illegally entered its territorial waters. Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga 11 May said Japan “strongly opposes” China’s growing maritime assertiveness in region during phone call with Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 27 May spoke with Vietnam’s FM Bui Thanh Son, affirming “shared commitment to protecting and preserving the rules-based order in the South China Sea”.

Heated exchanges continued between Philippines and China over Chinese maritime presence at disputed reef in South China Sea (SCS). Following late March diplomatic protest over continued presence of some 200 Chinese vessels at disputed Whitsun Reef, Filipino FM Teodoro Locsin 2 April met Chinese FM Wang Yi in Nanping city in China; Wang said China is willing to work with Philippines to fully abide by 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties. Filipino Secretary of Defence Delfin Lorenzana next day demanded that Chinese ships at Whitsun Reef “get out”; in response, Chinese embassy in Manila reiterated assertion that Chinese fishermen have traditionally fished at reef; Filipino MFA 5 April denounced Chinese embassy’s attempt to promote “clearly false narrative of China’s expansive and illegitimate claims”. U.S. Sec State Blinken 8 April spoke with Filipino FM Locsin about Whitsun Reef and again affirmed Mutual Defence Treaty applied to SCS. U.S. and Philippine armed forces 12 April commenced annual two-week “Balikatan” joint military exercises. Philippines 12 April summoned Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian to convey Manila’s dismay over “illegal lingering presence” of Chinese ships at Whitsun Reef, after which “both sides affirmed the use of peaceful settlement of disputes”; 14, 21 April filed further diplomatic protests concerning disputed reef. President Duterte 19 April said in public address that he would send navy ships to SCS to “stake a claim” to resources. EU 24 April issued statement noting presence of Chinese vessels at Whitsun Reef, opposed “unilateral actions that could undermine regional stability”.  Filipino coast guard 26 April deployed numerous vessels for training in SCS; in response, Beijing 28 April protested; Lorenzana same day said China has “no authority” to prevent drills. Meanwhile, U.S. military activity in region continued: aircraft carrier strike group USS Theodore Roosevelt 6-7 April conducted exercises with Malaysian navy in SCS; U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt then 9 April carried out exercises with USS Makin Islandamphibious group; China’s MFA 9 April called on U.S. to stop “inciting quarrels and sowing discord”. 

Amid ongoing regional tensions and military activity, U.S. and China traded critical comments while Philippines protested Beijing’s maritime presence near disputed reef. Beijing late Feb announced naval military exercises in South China Sea (SCS), west of Leizhou Peninsula, from 1 to 31 March. Chinese MFA 3 March said freedom of navigation in SCS “should not be used as an excuse to endanger the sovereignty and security of littoral countries” and Chinese FM Wang Yi 7 March said instability and security risks in SCS “come mainly from outside the region”. Leaders of U.S., India, Japan and Australia 12 March held virtual Quadrilateral Security Dialogue meeting, vowing to “prioritise the role of international law in the maritime domain.” Following meeting with Japanese counterparts, U.S. Sec State Blinken and Sec Defence 16 March expressed serious concerns over China’s “destabilising actions” in South and East China Seas; Blinken warned Beijing that U.S. “will push back if necessary, when China uses coercion or aggression to get its way”; Chinese MFA 17 March called statement “malicious attack on China’s foreign policy” and asserted China’s “indisputable sovereignty” over SCS. Philippines 21 March lodged diplomatic protest against China for deploying hundreds of maritime militia ships in “clear provocative action” at Whitsun Reef in Spratly Islands; Chinese MFA next day rejected claims, stating that ships were fishing vessels sheltering from rough seas; U.S. embassy in Manila 23 March issued statement saying: “We stand with the Philippines”. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte 25 March reportedly expressed concern to Chinese ambassador. Vietnam, which also claims reef, same day said China must cease violating Vietnam’s sovereignty. Philippine defence secretary 27 March said more Navy and Coast Guard vessels would be deployed to area, as well as light fighter aircraft. U.S. tech firm 25 March reported new Chinese construction on Subi Reef, near Philippine-occupied Pag-asa (Thitu) Island. Taiwanese defence minister 17 March confirmed govt increased personnel and armaments on Itu Aba island in SCS, warning “[China is] capable of starting a war”; U.S. and Taiwan 25 March signed agreement to enhance coast guard cooperation (see Taiwan). Germany 2 March announced it will send frigate to Asia in Aug, which will transit through SCS on its return.