New Chinese Coast Guard Law prompted concern amid continued military activity in South China Sea (SCS) region. China’s Coast Guard Law adopted late Jan came into effect 1 Feb; law authorises use of “all necessary means” to deter threats posed by foreign vessels in waters “under China’s jurisdiction”. After Philippine FM Teodoro Locsin in Jan filed diplomatic protest with Beijing against law, Chinese embassy in Manila 1 Feb defended it as “domestic legislation” that did not increase the risk of war. Filipino Lieutenant General Cirilito Sobejana 9 Feb said law was “alarming” and 19 Feb announced Manila will strengthen its naval presence in SCS; U.S. State Dept 19 Feb said it was “concerned” by law. Military activity continued. Chinese MFA 9 Feb denounced U.S. Freedom of Navigation operations in SCS as inconducive to regional peace and stability; USS Russell 17 Feb conducted Freedom of Navigation operation in Spratly Islands. French Defence Minister Florence Parly 8 Feb said French nuclear attack submarine and naval support ship completed patrol through SCS; French Navy Mistral-class amphibious assault ship and La Fayette-class frigate 18 Feb set sail on deployment to South China Sea and Japan ahead of joint exercise with Japan and U.S. in May. Chinese state media 24 and 27 Feb announced armed forces recently held maritime strike exercises. UK Royal Navy 27 Feb suggested carrier strike group will conduct freedom of navigation operation in SCS in May. Meanwhile, Locsin 8 Feb said SCS code of conduct currently being negotiated by South East Asia regional group ASEAN and China will not exclude Western powers such as U.S. from region. U.S. Sec Def Lloyd Austin 10 Feb reiterated commitment to uphold Mutual Defense Treaty with Philippines. In conversation with General Secretary of Vietnamese Communist Party Nguyen Phu Trong, Chinese President Xi Jinping 8 Feb said that both countries must resist outside interference. In first meeting since Oct, top diplomats of Australia, India, Japan and U.S. 18 Feb held virtual conference for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue; according to Japanese FM Toshimitsu Motegi, parties agreed to oppose any Chinese actions to alter status quo in region by force.

Tensions continued between China and U.S. amid military activity, targeted sanctions on both sides, and new Chinese law authorising coast guard’s use of force. Outgoing U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross 14 Jan announced blacklisting of China National Offshore Oil Corporation and imposed visa restrictions on Chinese navy officials, ruling party and state-owned enterprises, citing “China’s reckless and belligerent actions in the South China Sea”; U.S. Dept of Defense same day released names of nine additional blacklisted “Communist Chinese military companies”. China 20 Jan imposed sanctions on 28 U.S. individuals, including former Sec of State Mike Pompeo, former National Security Advisor Robert C. O’Brien and former Deputy National Security Advisor Matthew Pottinger, citing actions that “gravely interfered in China’s internal affairs”. Japan 19 Jan submitted note verbale to UN Sec-Gen rejecting China’s claims of sovereignty in SCS as contravening international law. In significant policy change, Chinese govt 22 Jan passed Coast Guard Law allowing coast guard to use “all necessary means” to stop or prevent threats from foreign vessels to safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and maritime rights”. Philippine FM Teodoro Locsin 27 Jan said he filed diplomatic protest over China’s Coast Guard Law, calling it “verbal act of war to any country who defies [it]”. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command 24 Jan said that U.S. aircraft carrier group led by USS Theodore Roosevelt had entered SCS to promote “freedom of the seas.” China 26 Jan announced military drills held 27-30 Jan in SCS. New U.S. Sec of State Antony Blinken 27 Jan told Locsin that U.S. stands with South East Asian claimants in SCS and underscored importance of U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty for security of both nations. UK and Japan 14 Jan vowed to “strongly oppose” unilateral changes to status quo in SCS through force. Indonesia’s Maritime Security Agency 14 Jan reported intercepting Chinese survey ship, Xiang Yang Hong 03, 13 Jan as it conducted unauthorised activities in Sunda Strait; vessel’s automatic identification system had been switched off three times 8-12 Jan in violation of requirements for transit through strait; Xiang Yang Hong 03 13 Jan exited Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone. 

Amid high-level military activity in region, tensions persisted between China on one hand, and U.S., Taiwan and claimant parties on the other. Amid strained relations between Australia and China, Chinese state news outlet Global Times 1 Dec called Australia “warhound of the US” and warned “its warships must not come to China’s coastal areas (…) or else it will swallow the bitter pills”. Following 14th ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) and 7th ADMM-Plus conference 10-11 Dec via video conference, all parties said in summary of discussions that they supported “maintenance of peace, stability, security, safety and freedom of navigation and overflight in and over the South China Sea” and would “settle all the disputes and differences peacefully in accordance with the international law”. Tensions heightened between Taiwan and China throughout month. Taiwan 20 Dec staged live-fire drill in Pratas Islands, Beijing-claimed northernmost islets of South China Sea (SCS), as part of anti-aircraft and anti-sea-landing exercise. Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy 21 Dec announced that newest carrier Shandong had sailed through Taiwan Strait on 20 Dec to hold stage exercises in SCS; Taiwan’s defence ministry said Shandong 17 Dec sailed from northern Chinese port of Dalian escorted by four warships; Taiwan 20 Dec sent six warships and eight aircraft to monitor Chinese ships (see Taiwan Strait). Beijing 22 Dec claimed its military had “expelled” U.S. Navy destroyer John S. McCain after it had “trespassed” in disputed waters near Spratly Islands in SCS; U.S. Navy 23 Dec called statement false and Chinese effort to assert its illegitimate claims. Following 21 Dec virtual summit between Indian PM Narendra Modi and Vietnamese counterpart Nguyen Xuan Phuc, both sides called for enhanced security and maritime cooperation for stability in Indo-Pacific region, as part of which Indian Navy Ship Kiltan 26-28 Dec undertook “passing exercise” with Vietnam People’s Navy in SCS. 

Tensions persisted between China and claimant parties. Filipino National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon 5 Nov said that plan to establish maritime militia forces to help counter China’s own use of maritime militias was yet to be finalised over concerns that it would be “misconstrued”. China’s National People’s Congress 4 Nov posted draft law that would allow Chinese Coast Guard to use weapons against foreign ships involved in illegal activities in Chinese-claimed waters if they fail to obey Chinese orders. At 37th summit of regional organisation ASEAN, Vietnamese PM Phuc 12 Nov opened meeting by affirming bloc’s commitment to maintain South China Sea (SCS) as zone of “peace, stability, and security”; Vietnamese govt 18 Nov released statement as chair of committee noting that they had discussed situation in SCS, “during which concerns were raised by some leaders”. Netherlands MFA 13 Nov issued statement calling on EU to “express itself more often and more strongly on developments in the South China Sea that violate the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea”. U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien 23 Nov reaffirmed U.S. support to Philippines and Vietnam so as to “deter China”; China’s embassy in Manila 24 Nov criticised O’Brien’s remarks as reflecting “Cold War mentality and wantonly [inciting] confrontation”. Indonesia’s navy chief 23 Nov announced move of naval combat force (Guspurla) headquarters to Natuna islands from Indonesia’s capital Jakarta to better protect interests in SCS. Asia Maritime Transparency Institute 25 Nov reported that China Coast Guard ship 5402 19 Nov harassed drilling rig in Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone, 44 nautical miles from Malaysia’s Sarawak state; Royal Malaysian Navy ship KD Keris manoeuvred around 5402 near Luconia Shoals for several days.

Tensions continued between China and U.S. amid military exercises on both sides. China began five simultaneous military exercises late Sept which continued in Oct, including two near Paracel Islands, one in East China Sea, and another in Bohai Sea. Japanese FM 6 Oct hosted Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Indian, Australian and U.S. counterparts, which China 2 Sept denounced as “mini-NATO”. Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force 9 Oct conducted anti-submarine drills in SCS and in Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam 10-11 Oct; Chinese state-backed news outlet Global Times 10 Oct criticised drills. Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency 9 Oct detained six Chinese fishing vessels in waters east of Johor state along with some 60 crew members for alleged illegal fishing. Chinese People’s Liberation Army 12 Oct accused U.S. guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain of trespassing in Chinese territorial waters near Paracel Islands and warned vessel to leave area, dispatching ships and planes to track it; U.S. 7th Fleet responded that vessel had “asserted navigational rights and freedoms” in area. Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi 13 Oct said during visit to Malaysia that Beijing and members of South East Asia regional organisation ASEAN should cooperate to remove “external disruption” in SCS. China-backed South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative think tank 12 Oct alleged U.S. aircraft conducted 41 reconnaissance flights over SCS last month. U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its strike group 15 Oct returned to SCS to conduct flight operations, maritime strike exercises and training between surface and air units. U.S., Japan and Australia 19 Oct conducted trilateral naval exercises in South China Sea. During visit to Vietnam’s capital Hanoi, Japanese PM Suga 19 Oct confirmed that Japan had agreed to export military equipment, including patrol planes and radar, to Vietnam. Australian Defence Minister Linda Reynolds 19 Oct met with Japanese Defence Minister Kishi Nobuo during visit to Tokyo, agreeing that countries would enhance maritime cooperation in SCS. Chinese and U.S. military officials 28-29 Oct held video conference to discuss crisis communication mechanisms.

Tense exchanges continued between China and U.S. During annual meeting of South East Asia regional organisation ASEAN, Chinese Vice FM Luo Zhaohui 4 Sept met with ten envoys and accused U.S. of threatening peace and stability in South China Sea (SCS); Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe 7-11 Sept travelled to meet with leaders of Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei and Philippines. In address to ASEAN forum, U.S. Sec State Pompeo 10 Sept said U.S. “will be here in friendship to help” and urged countries to cut ties with state-owned Chinese companies. During ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting with Pompeo, Vietnamese FM Pham Binh Minh 10 Sept said U.S. “role and contribution to maintaining peace, stability and security in the region are encouraged”; Vietnamese MFA 17 Sept reaffirmed Vietnamese sovereignty over Hoang Sa (Paracel) Islands and Truong Sa (Spratly) Islands; China 28 Sept conducted military drills near Paracel Islands. Chief of Indonesian maritime security agency 15 Sept stated that Indonesia would increase maritime security operations near northern Natuna islands after reports of Chinese coastguard vessel 12-14 Sept entering area. Philippines FM Teodoro Locsin 16 Sept said that Philippines would push for conclusion of Code of Conduct in SCS amid ongoing ASEAN talks on subject. In pre-recorded address delivered to UN 22 Sept, Philippines President Duterte affirmed 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration decision that rejected legality of China’s maritime and territorial claims based on historic rights, marking shift from his earlier stance downplaying the ruling. France, Germany and UK 18 Sept submitted note verbale to UN stating that China’s exercise of “historic rights” in SCS contravened UN Convention on Law of Sea. U.S. defence dept 1 Sept reported that China has world’s largest navy; Chinese defence ministry 13 Sept called report “wanton distortion” and described U.S. as “destroyer of world peace”. U.S. state dept 27 Sept issued statement concluding U.S. will “stand with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in resisting China’s coercive efforts to establish dominion over the South China Sea”.

Tensions continued between China and U.S., while Malaysia rejected China’s claims to historic rights in SCS. Chinese People’s Liberation Army 25 July to 2 Aug conducted live-fire drills in north-western SCS off Leizhou Peninsula. Following U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo’s July statement that China’s claims in SCS were “unlawful”, U.S. continued sizable military presence and operations in SCS: U.S. 11 Aug deployed two B-2 bombers to military base on Diego Garcia island in Indian Ocean; U.S. Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group 14 Aug conducted maritime air defence operations in SCS. U.S. Defence Secretary Mark Esper 6 Aug spoke with Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe for 90 minutes; Pentagon same day confirmed that Esper had “expressed concern about [Chinese military’s] destabilising activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and the South China Sea, and called on [China] to honour international obligations.” Malaysia 29 July issued note verbale to UN rejecting “China’s claims to historic rights, or other sovereign rights or jurisdiction”, move follows Chinese opposition to Malaysian 12 Dec 2019 note to UN that sought to establish limits of Malaysia’s continental shelf in northern part of SCS pursuant to UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Philippine’s Navy Chief Vice Admiral Giovanni Bacordo 19 Aug stated that Chinese navy was attempting to provoke Philippines and urged Philippines’ President Duterte to file diplomatic protest to Beijing over presence of two Chinese survey ships at Reed Bank, in north-eastern SCS. Manila 20 Aug filed diplomatic protest with China over Chinese coast guard’s “illegal confiscation” of Filipino fishermen’s fishing equipment in May. China 26 Aug test-fired two missiles – DF-21D and DF-26B – from its mainland into SCS. U.S. 26 Aug imposed sanctions on 24 Chinese companies involved in building artificial islands in SCS. Malaysia 27 Aug filed note verbale at UN that rejected Philippines’ claim over Kalayaan/Spratleys island group and state of Sabah.

Tensions heightened between China and U.S, while SCS claimant parties stressed need to resolve dispute based on international law. Following June announcement of Chinese military exercises around Paracel Islands 1-5 July, U.S. 3 July expressed concern and noted exercises in Philippines’ waters would be met with “severest response”. Chinese survey ship Hai Yang Di Zhi 4 departed region of Vietnam’s EZZ 4 July; Vietnamese coast guard ship and U.S. Navy ship USS Gabrielle Giffords 2 July sailed nearby. Chinese coast guard ship 5402 2 July sailed north of Vanguard Bank, within 200 nautical miles of Vietnam’s coast. U.S. military continued series of exercises in SCS: Nimitz and Ronald Reagan carrier strike groups 4 July began four days of exercises; at least one U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber 5 July participated in operation; guided-missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson 14 July conducted freedom of navigation operation, sailing within 12 nautical miles of Spratly Islands; Nimitz and Reagan strike groups 17 July linked up in SCS; Chinese defence ministry 9 July called exercises “provocative acts” in pursuit of “navigational hegemony”. Two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers 21 July conducted maritime integration operation with Reagan carrier group in SCS. China’s military 27 July commenced week-long live fire drills in SCS off Leizhou peninsula; 30 July completed bomber drill over SCS. In shift in U.S. stance, U.S. Sec of State Mike Pompeo 13 July said China’s claims to offshore resources “completely unlawful”; move puts U.S. in line with position of South East Asian claimants and UN Convention of Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In response to U.S. statement, Malaysian FM 16 July said disputes must be resolved based on international law. Vietnamese MFA 15 July affirmed support for UNCLOS; 16 July dismissed China’s claims of historical activities in SCS. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte 27 July said China is “in possession” of SCS. Australia 23 July submitted Note Verbale to Commission on the Limits of Continental Shelf, aligning with U.S. position on UNCLOS and 28 July agreed to “increased and regularised maritime cooperation” with U.S. in SCS and Indian Ocean; Canberra 25 July rejected Beijing’s claims in SCS.

Tensions between China and SCS claimant parties continued amid U.S. reiteration of its rejection of China’s claims in region. In notable toughening of rhetoric, South East Asia regional organisation ASEAN 27 June affirmed UN Convention on Law of the Sea as “basis for determining maritime entitlements, sovereign rights, jurisdiction and legitimate interests over maritime zones”. Beginning mid-June, three U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups – USS Theodore Roosevelt, USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan – simultaneously patrolled Western Pacific for first time since 2017; U.S. 17 June stated that deployment was to “promote security, stability and prosperity throughout the Indo-Pacific region”. U.S. media Fox News 9 June reported that U.S. B-1B Lancer bombers operated over SCS. U.S. envoy to UN Kelly Craft 2 June reiterated in note to UN Sec Gen Guterres that U.S. rejects Chinese claims as “inconsistent with international law as reflected in the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention.” Meanwhile, reports of regular Chinese activity in SCS continued. Chinese ship 8 June began laying undersea cables between its outposts in disputed Paracel Islands; satellite imagery suggested that cables were laid between Tree Island, North Island and Woody Island. U.S. media Radio Free Asia (RFA) 10 June reported Chinese research and survey vessel entered waters close to Pratas islands, which Taiwan controls and China claims; 16 June reported that two separate vessel-tracking tools detected other Chinese survey vessel within Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone. Vietnamese FM 14 June stated that two Chinese ships 10 June rammed Vietnamese fishing boat near Chinese-occupied Lincoln Island in Paracels before seizing its catch and equipment. Filipino Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana 9 June marked completion of construction work on Thitu island in disputed area of Spratlys. Australian High Commissioner to India 2 June raised concern over maritime militias in SCS and 17 June noted that China “not as committed” to existing international order as Australia and India. After Indonesia 28 May stated China’s “nine dash line” claim in region lacks basis in international law and violates Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone, China 2 June offered boundary negotiations with Jakarta; Indonesian MFA 5 June rejected offer.

Amid heated diplomatic exchanges between U.S., China and claimant states, U.S. military forces intensified activity in South China Sea (SCS), and reports emerged that China had deployed military aircraft to Spratly Islands. Following rising tensions in April after reported Chinese incursion into Malaysian exclusive economic zone, U.S. military forces increased their activity in SCS, including U.S. bombers 7-8 May flying over maritime area; U.S. Navy 2-8 May conducting reconnaissance and surveillance exercises; and U.S. Submarine Forces Pacific 8 May announcing that all of its forward-deployed submarines were underway in Western Pacific, including Philippine Sea. Meanwhile, China 1 May started campaign for enforcing unilateral fishing ban for all in waters north of 12 degrees latitude in SCS; fishermen’s groups in Philippines and Vietnam 4 May protested against China’s summer fishing moratorium; Vietnamese ministry of agriculture and rural development 13 May rejected “unilateral decision”, said Vietnam has sovereignty over its waters. Indonesian FM Retno Marsudi 6 May expressed concern over escalating tensions between U.S., China and claimant parties and urged all to exercise restraint and abide by international law; Indonesia 26 May sent diplomatic note to UN Sec Gen Guterres reiterating support for compliance with international law, and particularly UN Convention for Law of the Sea, and expressed support for 2016 ruling by Permanent Court of Arbitration in favour of Philippines against China over SCS territorial dispute. Chinese vessel 15 May left Malaysian area according to shipping data after exploration vessel from Malaysia’s state oil company Petronas 12 May withdrew from same zone; Philippine Navy 19 May announced docking of landing craft at Thitu Islandas work on a port nears completion. A defence intelligence group 11 May disclosed that satellite imagery showed two kinds of surveillance aircraft on Fiery (Yongshu) Reef in the Spratly islands; Chinese media 14 May reported that China had deployed KJ-500 airborne early warning and control system and KQ-200 maritime patrol aircraft on the reef’s base; Chinese FM Wang Yi 24 May stated there is “nothing to support the claim that China is using COVID-19 to expand its presence in the South China Sea”.