Tensions continued between Philippines and China after Filipino fishing boat carrying 22 fishermen sank following 9 June collision with Chinese fishing vessel in contested waters near Reed Bank; Vietnamese vessel in area rescued fishermen. Philippines govt 13 June filed protest with China, which denied its vessel hit fishing boat and abandoned Filipino fishermen; Philippines President Duterte 17 June called it “a maritime incident”, accepted China’s 22 June invitation to conduct joint investigation. Philippines coast guard 10 June reported spotting Chinese warship near contested Scarborough Shoal during four-day patrol. Beijing early June held military exercises near contested Paracel Islands. At ASEAN summit in Thailand, Duterte 23 June expressed “concern and disappointment” over delayed negotiations of Code of Conduct in SCS. CNN 21 June published satellite images reportedly showing at least four Chinese fighters jets deployed on contested Woody (Yongxing) Island.

Amid ongoing U.S.-China tensions, U.S. navy conducted two freedom of navigation operations in South China Sea (SCS) and U.S. Senate proposed SCS-related sanctions targeted at China. Two U.S. missile destroyers sailed near Gaven and Johnson Reefs in contested Spratly Islands 6 May, prompting China to accuse U.S. of violating its sovereignty. Later in month, U.S. warship 20 May sailed near contested Scarborough Shoal claimed by China and Philippines, passing within twelve nautical miles of Scarborough Reef; China called move “provocative”. U.S. Senate submitted legislation 23 May to sanction Chinese individuals and entities involved in “illegal and dangerous” activities in SCS and East China Sea, prompting rebuke from Chinese foreign ministry. Following request from Washington that its Pacific allies boost their presence in SCS, U.S., India, Japan and Philippines held joint naval exercises through SCS 2-8 May. U.S. coast guard accompanied Philippine coast guard vessels in joint exercise 14 May in Luzon island in Philippines. Month after flare-up in confrontation between Philippines and China over Beijing’s deployment of vessels near disputed islands, Philippines Supreme Court 3 May ordered govt take steps to protect environment in disputed areas of SCS, after petitioners alleged govt inaction over illegal activities by China; spokesman of President Duterte 6 May said he will enforce ruling. Senior officials from China and ASEAN member states met 18 May to discuss implementation of Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the SCS, and consultation on Code of Conduct for SCS.

Amid Beijing’s reported deployment of hundreds of vessels in vicinity of Pag-asa (Thitu) Island in Spratly archipelago, confrontation between Philippines and China in South China Sea (SCS)/West Philippines Sea since late March evoked unusually stern rhetoric from President Duterte’s govt. Manila reportedly filed protest with Chinese embassy 29 March noting presence of Chinese vessels, many believed to be part of China’s maritime militia, near Pag-asa, where Philippines has been refurbishing facilities and repairing airstrip since late 2018; senior official 4 April called presence of Chinese vessels “illegal”, while Duterte same day said China should “lay off the Pag-asa”, and that he would tell soldiers to prepare for “suicide mission” if China were to attack or arrest Filipinos in area. Philippines govt spokesperson 12 April invoked Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague’s 2016 ruling that China has no legal basis to claim historical rights to area encompassed by “nine-dash line”; Duterte has previously preferred to set it aside in interests of stronger ties with China. In Beijing for Belt and Road Initiative Forum 25 April, Duterte and President Xi agreed to resolve issue bilaterally. Tensions coincided with 35th annual Balikatan joint military exercises 1-12 April, which saw U.S. deploy amphibious assault ship with twenty F-35B jets near disputed Scarborough Shoal which China seized from Philippines in 2012, marking new level of U.S. assertiveness in South China Sea. Philippines FM 16 April tweeted that country would take unspecified legal action against China for violating conventions on environmental protection. Two Vietnamese coastguard ships 27 April reportedly rammed Indonesian navy patrol vessel after it attempted to intercept illegal Vietnamese fishing boat off coast of Borneo; Indonesian navy detained twelve Vietnamese fishermen following clash.

U.S.-China tensions continued amid ongoing U.S. military exercises and Chinese and American diplomatic overtures to Philippines. U.S. flew B-52 bombers near contested islands in South China Sea (SCS) 4 and 14 March as part of its “continuous bomber presence mission” based in Guam. Following Jan reports that U.S. Marine Corps is developing conflict capabilities for taking “natural or man-made” island, U.S. Marines 11-14 March conducted training exercises on Japanese island of Iejima. U.S. Sec State Pompeo 1 March said U.S. would defend Philippines from “armed attack” on its ships or aircraft in SCS during meeting with Philippines President Duterte. Philippines Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana 4 March said current Philippines-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty was vague, risked “confusion and chaos” during crises and needed to be re-examined. Meeting in Beijing, Chinese and Philippines FMs 20 March agreed to finish negotiations for Code of Conduct for behaviour in SCS by 2021 during meeting in Beijing. Chinese vessel 6 March reportedly rammed and sunk Vietnamese fishing boat in disputed waters near Paracel Islands chain; Vietnamese govt 21 March submitted official protest to China, while China asserted sovereignty over Paracel Islands and said Vietnam should stop illegal fishing activities in area. Two former Philippine govt officials 21 March filed case at International Criminal Court against Chinese President Xi for mass island-building causing irreversible environmental damage in SCS and undermining “food and energy security” of surrounding states. Malaysia PM Mahathir 7 March said China should define “so-called ownership” of SCS so other countries can gain benefits, stressing importance of freedom of navigation.

Marking second U.S. freedom of navigation operation of 2019 in South China Sea (SCS), U.S. warships sailed through disputed Spratly islands 11 Feb, passing within twelve nautical miles of Second Thomas Shoal and Mischief Reef, administered by Philippines and China respectively; Beijing responded reiterating its “indisputable sovereignty” over islands and claimed its navy identified and expelled the warships. U.S. stealth aircraft conducted operations in Philippine and East China Seas 26 Jan-6 Feb; followed Jan reports that U.S. Marine Corps is developing conflict capabilities for taking “natural or man-made” island. China continued push for military combat readiness toward maritime forces, with Central Military Commission Vice-Chair 3 Feb calling for further development of Coast Guard. Media 21 Feb reported that China concluded previously unannounced drills in SCS over 34 days, involving naval, air and missile forces. U.S. and UK navies held joint maritime security and logistics training in SCS 18 Feb, their third naval collaboration in region in three months. Philippines defence minister 4 Feb said announced ramp for planned construction on Thitu Island in Spratlys will be completed early 2019. Using satellite imagery, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative 6 Feb reported increased numbers of suspected Chinese fishing militia, Coast Guard and navy vessels around island Dec and Jan. Indonesia 22 Feb outlined plans to build Integrated Marine and Fisheries Centre in its Natuna Islands and station naval patrol boats as part of effort to establish new fishing zone and assert sovereignty over area.

U.S.-China tensions continued amid reports on China’s military capability build-up and first U.S. freedom of navigation operation of year. U.S. warship USS McCampbell 7 Jan sailed within 12 nautical miles of three disputed Paracel islands controlled by China but also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam; Chinese military aircraft and ship reportedly warned it to leave and Beijing formally protested exercise; Chinese state media reported China had mobilised intermediate-range ballistic missiles. U.S. official reports released during month outlined China’s military build-up and expanding naval capabilities; Chinese state media also reported on shift, noting “transformational changes” to People’s Liberation Army, boosting size of navy and air force. Chinese state media reported tests of intercontinental ballistic missile with capacity to strike moving warships. President Trump signed Asia Reassurance Initiative Act into law 31 Dec, emphasising importance of strategic relations with regional partners; highlighting Chinese military assertiveness as cause for concern and referring to efforts to counter China’s strategic influence with $1.5bn authorised for initiative. While U.S. and China continued to exchange heated rhetoric, U.S. Chief of Naval Operations visiting China mid-Jan met with senior defence officials to discuss operational safety and risk reduction during maritime encounters. As ASEAN nations continued to raise concerns about South China Sea tensions and slow progress on Code of Conduct, statement following meeting of ASEAN FMs mid-month “took note of some concerns on the land reclamations and activities”. China late Jan reported it had opened maritime rescue centre on man-made island on disputed Fiery Cross Reef in Spratly Islands. Three Chinese naval ships paid goodwill visit to Manila 17-21 Jan.

U.S. allies continued efforts to balance China’s Pacific influence, and South East Asian countries made further efforts to stake their claims. Chinese state-run news agency Xinhua late Nov confirmed rumours China is building its third aircraft carrier. Despite rising tensions between China and U.S. in recent months, statements following G-20 summit 1 Dec made no mention of South China Sea (SCS) disputes; meeting between U.S. and Chinese presidents at summit resulted in 90-day reprieve on U.S.-China trade frictions for continuing talks. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative 10 Dec identified new Chinese construction on Bombay Reef in disputed Paracel Islands as likely part of a wider communication and surveillance system. Indonesia inaugurated military base on its Natuna Islands 18 Dec, Exclusive Economic Zone of which juts into waters claimed by China under its “nine-dash line”. U.S. Senate 19 Dec approved House amendments to 2018 Asia Reassurance Initiative Act, serving as policy framework for U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy and reaffirming regional security commitments. Philippines Defence Minister Delfin Lorenzana 20 Dec told press conference: “If we see Chinese actions that are not consistent with our national interest, we are going to protest China”, and: “We will still continue with our activities” in West Philippine Sea, where “we will patrol regularly … [and] continue strengthening our islands”; also said Philippines would upgrade troop housing on Pag-asa Island in disputed Spratly archipelago. Lorenzana also said defence ministry is seeking to review provisions of 1951 mutual defence treaty between Philippines and U.S. to expand its coverage to nine islands claimed by Manila in SCS, and strengthen bilateral alliance; said issue was raised in meeting between U.S. and Philippines officials in Nov. Australia, New Zealand, Japan and U.S. continued to step up engagement with Pacific nations in what are widely seen as efforts to balance Chinese influence, while European Parliament 12 Dec adopted resolution emphasising “critical importance” of Indo-Pacific security to EU interests, calling for peaceful resolution of disputes and refraining from unilateral attempts to change status quo. Senior U.S. defence official 28 Dec called on allies to boost military presence in SCS.

U.S.-China rivalry and South China Sea (SCS) territorial disputes kept tensions high at Asia-Pacific meetings during month, while military exercises continued, and China signed bilateral cooperation agreements with Brunei and Philippines. U.S. Sec Defense James Mattis 9 Nov for first time publicly called on China to “withdraw its missile systems from disputed features” during U.S.-China Diplomatic and Security Dialogue in Washington, said there would be no lessening of freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs); Chinese official criticised FONOPs as “excuse to pursue military actions” and described China’s island bases as necessary response to threat; in rare positive note, both committed to improve communication, including developing military-to-military Crisis Deconfliction and Communication Framework. At ASEAN summit in Singapore mid-Nov, Chinese Premier Li called for “non-littoral countries” to respect China-ASEAN efforts for peace and stability; U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton 13 Nov said U.S. would oppose any agreements limiting free passage in SCS. U.S. Navy cruiser 26 Nov sailed through Paracel Islands, drawing complaint from China over challenge to its maritime claims. China 1 Nov confirmed it is operating weather stations on features it controls in disputed Spratly archipelago; rival claimant Vietnam lodged formal protest. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative 20 Nov released satellite imagery showing new Chinese platform at Bombay Reef in Paracel Islands, also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam. Japan’s PM Abe continued efforts to balance China’s regional influence, including agreeing to $1.8bn bond deal assisting Malaysia and strengthening economic and security cooperation with Australia, Japan, U.S. and India (see China-Japan). U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 14 Nov report warned of China’s “expansionist strategy” and accelerated capacity to contest U.S. militarily. Head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command expressed similar concerns, called for larger navy and shifting ballistic missile defence systems onshore to free up capacity. U.S. conducted naval exercises with Brunei in SCS; announced “complex warfare operations” by two U.S. warships in Philippine Sea 15 Nov; flew B-52 bombers near SCS 19 Nov. China reportedly launched project to build unmanned deep-sea submarine science and defence base in SCS. Xi and Trump met at G20 summit in Argentina 30 Nov-1 Dec.

U.S. VP Mike Pence 4 Oct delivered hawkish speech signalling intensified U.S.-China strategic competition, while diplomacy continued. Pence’s speech included numerous complaints including China’s militarisation of features in South China Sea (SCS). Pence also said U.S. navy would continue to “fly, sail and operate” despite China’s “reckless harassment”, following close encounter between countries’ naval vessels late Sept. China 5 Oct said “unwarranted” and “groundless” accusations harmed its interests and bilateral relations and further criticised U.S. policies 8 Oct during visit of U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo to Beijing. U.S. Sec Defense James Mattis 16 Oct visited Vietnam for second time in 2018; and on sidelines of 18-20 Oct ASEAN defence minister’s meeting in Singapore agreed with Chinese defence minister Wei Fenghe to make military ties play stabilising role in relations. ASEAN defence ministers 19 Oct formally adopted code and communication protocol to manage aircraft encounters over SCS; China and U.S. agreed in principle to adhere to protocol. Japan conducted multiple unprecedented military drills with UK, U.S. and Philippines at various locations across Indo-Pacific region, while PM Abe discussed Indo-Pacific and SCS cooperation with Australian, French, and Vietnamese counterparts. China and Thailand 20-29 Oct joined Malaysia for joint maritime exercises off coast of Malaysia, and China and ASEAN members held first joint maritime military exercises 22-29 Oct. Chinese President Xi 25 Oct inspected PLA Southern Theatre Command, which covers SCS, and emphasised need to “concentrate preparations for fighting a war”.

U.S., UK and Japan naval and overflight activities in South China Sea (SCS) drew criticism from Beijing, most notably U.S. flying B-52 bombers over SCS late Aug and Sept, which U.S. said were part of “regularly scheduled operations”, but which Beijing called “provocative”. Tensions already inflamed by U.S.-China trade war and U.S. assistance to Taiwan (see Taiwan Strait). China 22 Sept summoned U.S. ambassador and postponed joint military talks, after U.S. 20 Sept sanctioned Chinese military agency for buying Russian fighter jets and surface-to-air missile system; also cancelled high-level military visit to Washington and denied request for U.S. navy port call in Hong Kong. U.S. Navy destroyer USS Decatur 30 Sept navigated within 12 nautical miles of features China controls in Spratly Islands. Japan 17 Sept announced its Kuroshio submarine had conducted anti-submarine warfare exercises with three Japanese warships before port call in Vietnam, in Japan’s first public announcement of such drills which PM Abe said had been conducted in area for fifteen years; China called for halt to such actions. China’s People’s Liberation Army conducted live-fire flight training exercises near the SCS 19 September, People’s Daily reported. UK’s amphibious assault ship HMS Albion 31 Aug conducted freedom of navigation operation by sailing near disputed Paracel Islands en route to Vietnam; HMS Argyll headed to SCS after joint UK-Japan Indian Ocean drills 26 Sept. Australia’s largest maritime military drills, Exercise Kakadu, began in Darwin 31 Aug, with 27 nations participating including China for first time. U.S. and India 6-7 Sept discussed security in Indo-Pacific and signed communications pact enabling equipment sales and closer military coordination, part of efforts to balance China’s growing influence.