U.S. co-chair of OSCE Minsk Group mediating between Azerbaijan and Armenia in media interview early Feb cited progress in negotiations. Sporadic armed clashes across front line which began mid-Jan continued, albeit less intense, with several reports of troop deaths from both Yerevan and Baku.

Sudden, serious escalation in fighting starting 20 Jan along various front-line areas, with both sides blaming other, and return to hostile rhetoric by officials and in media. Details surrounding 20 Jan clashes unclear, with Armenia claiming Azerbaijan attempt to break through front lines, vowing “retribution” after 1 Armenian soldier killed. Azerbaijan defence ministry 24 Jan declared it had deployed air force units over front line areas, confirmed by Armenia; same day said it repelled Armenian incursion near Line of Control, 1 Azerbaijani captain killed. Armenian defence ministry 24 Jan reported clashes along border near Georgia, 1 civilian wounded. Azerbaijani media 27 Jan reported another Azerbaijani officer killed in fighting. N-K de facto authorities reported conscript killed by Azerbaijani sniper fire 28 Jan. At regularly-scheduled meeting between countries’ FMs in Paris 24 Jan OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs expressed concern, called on sides to cease military actions.

Following Nov meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijan presidents, countries’ FMs met in Kiev 4 Dec, agreed to continue talks on resolution of N-K conflict. In attempt to sustain resumed talks, OSCE Minsk Group representatives visited both countries mid-month, part of increased diplomatic activity by U.S. and Russia. Armenian President Sargsyan told state media meeting with Azerbaijan President Aliyev involved serious discussions, proposals to make progress on ending 25-year conflict. Baku and Yerevan say next presidential meeting scheduled March. Both sides accused other of continued ceasefire violations. Armenian officer killed 14 Dec along front lines, Azerbaijani soldier killed 29 Dec, according to defence ministries.

Armenian President Sargsyan and Azerbaijan President Aliyev met for first time in 2 years 19 Nov following pressure by OSCE mediators. EU and U.S. hailed meeting, no concrete results reported, presidents to meet again at unspecified date. Both sides accused other of hundreds of ceasefire violations during month. Sargsyan 12 Nov visited NK, inspected military forces. Formal ally Russia to send more troops to Armenia as well as a squadron of military helicopters; President Putin to visit 2 Dec.

Speaking at Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe 2 Oct, Armenian President Sargsyan urged body to initiate contact with N-K de facto authorities to help resolve conflict; also criticised Azerbaijan for its threatening rhetoric. Serious fighting along international frontier left 1 soldier dead, 3 wounded on Armenian side (according to Armenian defence ministry) and forced authorities to close main road leading to border with Georgia; both sides blamed other for incident. Re-elected Azerbaijani President Aliyev said country will increase efforts to isolate Armenia economically and politically to force it to leave occupied Azerbaijani districts; Baku 29 Oct accused Yerevan of resettling 200 Syrian refugees in sensitive occupied districts adjacent to N-K. Some Armenian analysts expressed concern over Aliyev’s appointment of new defence minister, say it may indicate more aggressive military posture and increase risk of war.

Co-Chairs of “Minsk Group” mediators and FMs of Azerbaijan and Armenia met on sidelines of UNGA late Sept in attempt to jump-start peace talks, largely stalled since 2011. Mediators pushing for Dec meeting between Presidents Aliev and Sargsyan. New U.S. co-chair James Warlick visited Baku, Yerevan, and Stepanakert (N-K), delivered letters to Aliev and Sargsyan from President Obama urging direct dialogue; noted basic outlines of future agreement already known. Exchanges of fire reported in conflict zone throughout month. Armenian reports say military exercises planned for 8-11 Oct, during Azerbaijan’s presidential election.

Sporadic fighting along nearly 1,000 km Azerbaijan-Armenia border spread to highly sensitive Nakhichevan exclave. Armenia defence minister said one soldier killed and one injured in sniper attack 23 Aug, Azerbaijan said Armenians staged incident and “shooting at selves”. Armenian officials repeated increasingly grave warnings they will retaliate. Further skirmishes along international frontier. Azerbaijan said seeking $3bn weapons purchase from South Korea including submarines, battleships, attack helicopters to add to billions it has spent on weapons in last few years as it tries to assemble insurmountable military advantage over Armenia to force it to compromise, leave occupied territories, or face massive armed assault. Armenian President Sargsyan said Azerbaijan’s Aliyev would be preferable counterpart for negotiations to end war in unusual quasi-endorsement ahead of Azerbaijan election.

In further tensions over NK, Azerbaijani and Turkish military units held joint military exercises in sensitive Nakhichevan exclave and near Baku. Armenian/NK officials so far refrained from promise to reopen airport in NK for fixed-wing flights, apparently result in part of international pressure. Azerbaijan and Armenia accused each other of hundreds of ceasefire violations; reported at least one death each during exchanges of fire along front lines 30, 31 July. Clashes also reported along northern international frontier between the two countries. Armenia said shooting broke out 23 July along main road close to border, accused Azerbaijani units of shooting at firefighters, reported road closed to traffic 17 July after area allegedly under gunfire from Azerbaijani positions.

Tensions running high between Azerbaijan and Armenia with further escalation in arms race. Azerbaijan 19 June announced delivery of $1bn worth of sophisticated Russian weaponry including nearly 100 top-line T-90 tanks, sophisticated rocket launchers, self-propelled artillery units. President Aliyev 26 June presided over huge military parade in Baku which also featured air fighter sorties and demonstrated new drone capabilities, pledged if necessary to retake all lost territory as well as Armenian lands. Unconfirmed Armenian defence ministry source countered by claiming Armenia is guarded with long-range offensive missile systems capable of hitting any target in Azerbaijan; unclear if claim referred to Russian systems delivered directly to Armenian armed forces or to Russian forces in Armenia. Also on 26 June,head of Russian CSTO-led military bloc and Russian NSC chief visited Yerevan to sign upgraded defence pact, pledged arms and more support. Truce continues to be violated with sporadic clashes, shooting. OSCE Special Representative for Conflicts 12 June warned that simmering conflict between the two may explode; voiced continuing concern Armenia might attempt to launch regularly scheduled fixed-wing air flights between Yerevan and Karabakh, causing near certain Azerbaijani reaction; also  lamented reluctance of leaders to hold another bilateral meeting to diffuse tensions. OSCE attempts to jumpstart talks in June failed according to OSCE Minsk Group sources cited by media. U.S., French and Russian presidents whose countries co-chair mediation efforts 18 June expressed regret over impasse in talks; called  for sides to re-activate efforts to reach settlement. 

Azerbaijani President Aliyev 7 May described Nagorno-Karabakh region as “major impediment” to regional integration, said Azerbaijan seeks to restore its territorial integrity, resolve issue in accordance with international law. Azerbaijan mid-May carried out military exercises near N-K, led by Defence Minister Safar Abiyev. Azerbaijan reported soldier shot dead near N-K border 27 May in Armenian ceasefire violation. Armenian President Sargsyan 9 May visited N-K for Victor Day celebrations marking end of World War 2.