Baku reported Azerbaijan army officer shot dead near border with Armenia by Armenian forces in ceasefire violation late 8 April, amid continued ceasefire violations alleged by both sides. OSCE mediators reported possible meeting between FMs of the 2 countries to take place May. Tensions continue over Armenian statements about possible reopening of airport in Nagorno-Karabakh, with air link to Yerevan.

U.S. National Intelligence Service published report highlighting dangers of continued standoff over N-K conflict. Azerbaijan’s Defence Ministry reported Azerbaijani soldier shot dead 10 March by sniper in Fizuli region near Line of Contact (LoC), controlled by N-K forces; N-K military spokesman denied report. Armenian soldier reported killed in N-K 20 March. OSCE mission conducted planned monitoring of LoC 14 March.

Armenia reported 2 soldiers killed, 1 soldier and a civilian wounded in sniper fire incidents Feb. Azerbaijan defence ministry reported 2 Azerbaijani soldiers killed during Feb.

Azerbaijani and Armenian FMs met in Paris 28 Jan for internationally mediated talks on N-K conflict. In 19 Jan interview, Armenian President Sargsyan accused Baku of losing “sense of reality” over N-K, said his govt would continue to strengthen its armed forces in face of Azerbaijani military threat; said was ready to continue negotiations.

Hopes that negotiations might be reinvigorated under auspices of OSCE Minsk group dashed at 6-7 Dec OSCE Ministerial Meeting, at which Armenia and Azerbaijan FMs said they were ready to “discuss new ideas” in 2013, but denied there had been any new initiatives. Azerbaijani FM Mammadyarov told EU officials 17 Dec that Armenians in N-K should become loyal citizens of Azerbaijan; Armenian FM Nalbandian told officials citizens should decide status in referendum. Exchanges of fire continue along LoC; Nagorno-Karabakh de facto officials proposed prohibiting shooting across LoC on “New Year’s day, Christmas day and other holidays”. Regular OSCE monitoring of LoC again revealed no violations; local media continue to report daily violations by both sides. Tensions continue around opening of Stepanakert airport, rumoured to open 6 Jan.

Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs met under Minsk group chairmanship for 2nd time in 2 months 27 Oct without results. Azerbaijan President Aliyev 31 Oct said Azerbaijan would celebrate victory in Karabakh “soon”; defence ministry spokesman said Armenia’s Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant would be targeted in event of war. Armenian president Sargsyan responded warning “Azerbaijan is waiting for an occasion to start the conflict”, said Armenia “won’t stand aside when the population of Karabakh is going to be destroyed”; “deeper international engagement” needed to reduce tensions. One Azerbaijani soldier reported killed, 4 injured in mine explosions on Line of Contact in special operations during month. Minsk Group co-chairs visiting N-K 22 Nov urged local leaders not to put N-K airport into operation.

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan continued: Armenian President Sargsyan 6 Oct said Azerbaijan initiating fresh preparations for war over N-K; said Baku buying “horrendous amounts of weapons”, preparing for armed resolution to conflict. Baku dismissed statement, yet announced it would increase defence budget for 2013 by almost 9% to $2 billion, not including $1.7bn spent on other security force detachments. Armenian defence forces conducted 2-week anti-aircraft exercise involving 45,000 soldiers and including units from N-K. U.S. open-source analysis centre revealed Armenia has upgraded and repositioned air defence systems to cover N-K, Armenia. Both countries now claim to possess offensive missiles with 300km+ range. Controversy continues over long-postponed opening of N-K airport; Turkey threatened to close airspace to Armenian aircraft if Armenia begins flights there.

Peace process damaged as Azerbaijan’s amnesty and promotion of Ramil Safarov (see Azerbaijan) dealt serious blow to confidence building with Armenia, heightening tensions and chances of escalation of conflict. Pardon sparked another bout of war rhetoric, Armenian President Sargsyan put army on high alert; observers fear freeze in contacts, risk of increased skirmishes. EU, U.S., NATO all expressed “deep concern” about security implications for region. Minsk Group co-chairs met with countries’ FMs to discuss situation. Azerbaijan Deputy FM 27 Sept said negotiations “suspended”. NATO Sec Gen Rasmussen, visiting region 7 Sept, warned against resumption of military hostilities. Countries continued to exchange accusations of ceasefire violations, with 1 casualty confirmed on Armenian side late month.

Exchanges of fire continued along line of contact: Azerbaijani soldier killed 17 Aug in Agdam, Azerbaijani Defence Ministry said soldier shot by Armenian sniper, Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh de facto authorities denied claim. Azerbaijan Defence Minister Abiev 4 Aug said Azerbaijan would take territories occupied by Armenia by force if Armenia does not withdraw, Minsk Group mediating format not delivering concrete results. Armenia early month announced plans to resettle several hundreds of ethnic Armenian Syrian refugees in Karabakh, occupied territories; Azerbaijan protested to UN, OSCE. Runner-up in breakaway region’s July presidential elections General Balasanian 3 Aug announced creation of new opposition party focusing on social justice.

Presidential election held 19 July in breakaway region; incumbent Bako Sahakian declared winner with 66%; Azerbaijan said move “illegitimate” and undermined negotiating process, warned all foreign observers would be considered personae non gratae. Azerbaijan 20 July said soldier killed on border by Armenian sniper.