With threat of military escalation still high, observers warned that political turmoil in Armenia (see Armenia) increases risks in Nagorno-Karabakh and could create temptation for Yerevan or Baku to launch new attacks in conflict zone. Armenian side 22 April distributed video footage of Azerbaijani tanks moving close to southern location of Line of Contact (LoC); Azerbaijan denied, while OSCE Minsk Group 23 April called for restraint “at this delicate time”. Overall situation in conflict zone stayed tense but calm, with sides reporting slight increase in exchanges of fire. Three Armenian soldiers reported killed at military units in southern (9 April) and northern locations (15 and 17 April) of LoC with no connection to attacks from Azerbaijani side. Azerbaijan 18 April reported one civilian wounded at central location of LoC; Armenian side denied. Marking second anniversary of “Four-Day War” 2 April, Armenian and Azerbaijani officials made statements blaming other side for conflict.

Situation remained calm along Line of Contact (LoC), with sides reporting regular exchange of sniper fire and overflights of drones. HALO Trust demining charity 29 March reported death of three of its local staff members, and two injured, by accidental detonation of anti-tank landmine in Martakert region. Both Azerbaijan and de facto Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) army conducted military exercises 12-17 March and 12-13 March respectively; Baku showcased large numbers of troops and biggest ever number of rocket launchers, prompting Armenian protest and complaint over lack of advance notice of exercises. De facto NK leader mid-March visited U.S. Congress for the first time since 1999, prompting Baku to send official protest to U.S..

Baku and Yerevan both continued exchange of harsh statements. Azerbaijani President Aliyev 8 Feb told congress of ruling New Azerbaijan Party that Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, and some Armenian regions were Azerbaijan’s historic lands and “… we, the Azerbaijanis, must return to these historical lands”. Statement produced outcry in Armenia; President Sargsyan at Munich Security Conference 17 Feb portrayed it as new territorial demand. Heated rhetoric came as Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) de facto govt staged rallies in region’s main towns to celebrate 30th anniversary since start of Armenian Karabakh movement street protests in 1988; and comes ahead of electoral tests in March/April for Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders. Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group co-chairs early Feb toured five territories adjacent to NK in its Soviet administrative borders, which Azerbaijan declares “occupied” and wants to retake from Armenian side’s control; many on Armenian side consider these territories “liberated”. Following tour, co-chairs issued statement 11 Feb asking sides to “refrain from inflammatory statements and provocative actions”. Yerevan and Baku again failed to finalise deal on increased numbers of OSCE observers and their functions during tour. Some observers in region said Baku is losing hope for successful talks, as Azerbaijani MP Rovshan Rzayev 1 Feb proposed law on occupied territories to reinforce pressure on Armenian side; and Azerbaijan’s foreign minister in interview with French newspaper 9 Feb appeared less optimistic than previously about possible outcome. Month saw continued slight increase in shootings at Line of Contact: two Armenian soldiers reported dead 7 and 22 Feb. Baku 11 Feb reported provocation by Armenian soldiers at international border between the two countries; Armenia denied.

Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers 18 Jan met in Poland, following earlier meeting in Oct 2017, but again failed to produce final deal on increasing number of Organization for Co-operation and Security in Europe (OSCE) observers in conflict zone; sides have in principle agreed on increase from six to thirteen observers, but disagree on modalities, including locations. OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs said sides would finalise issue as soon as possible. Baku expressed “welcome and support” for 16 Jan statement from UN Secretary-General Guterres on need to revitalise peace processes in post-Soviet conflicts; also welcomed Russian foreign minister’s 15 Jan call for step-by-step approach to resolving NK conflict, rather than through a single deal. In speech at Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Armenia’s President Sargsyan 24 Jan said his country already implemented all its international commitments and recognition of NK independence was only way to resolve conflict, called on international community to make Azerbaijan tone down its “unrealistic” demands. Foreign ministers discussed possibility of new international assessment mission to territories (last one was led by OSCE Minsk Group in 2010). Month saw overall security situation unchanged, though with slight increase in shootings reported by sides. One Armenian soldier reported killed 7 Jan by sniper, two more injured; Azerbaijan 19 Jan reported one soldier killed. Armenian side 20 Jan reported drone attack at its positions and on 25 Jan an attempt to “penetrate its positions” in southern location of LoC; Baku denied involvement. Armenian side 29 Jan reported one soldier killed in northern section of LoC. Azerbaijani President Aliyev late Dec signed 2018 state budget approving 3.7% increase in defence-related costs, up to $1.6bn, around half on procurement.

During 7 Dec meeting, Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers were not able to reach final agreement allowing expansion of office of Personal Representative of OSCE Chairman-in-Office, under debate since soon after April 2016 escalation and seen by Armenian side as precondition for launching detailed substantive talks, including on return of lands, future status of conflict region and security guarantees. Sides expected to meet again in Jan and agree on adding several more “field assistants” to special representatives’ office in region, but disagree on their location. Foreign ministers of OSCE Minsk group co-chair countries (Russia, France and U.S.) 7 Dec issued special statement: supported resumed and intensified diplomacy, called for agreement on expansion of special representatives’ office, and urged sides to look for compromise on “substantial issues of political settlement”; said further delays will complicate situation and could call into question commitment to reach lasting agreement. Amid intensified diplomacy, month saw low number of incidents and rare shootings at Line of Contact, with Armenia and Azerbaijan reporting two military casualties 11 and 14 Dec. President Sargsyan 1-4 Dec went to NK to inspect local military and watch war games reportedly involving more 1,000 soldiers, dozens of tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery systems, as well as what an Armenian military official called a major new type of weapon. In 14 Dec interview, Sargsyan said there could be no peace process without pacified situation in conflict zone. President Aliyev 21 Dec continued to speak about no status outside of Azerbaijan for NK and need to fully restore Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity.

Intensified attempts by main mediators to restart Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) negotiation process continued. On Russian side, PM Medvedev visited Yerevan 24 Oct; President Putin mid-Nov met with Armenian President Sargsyan in Russia; and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov conducted shuttle diplomacy between Baku and Yerevan 20-21 Nov. Supportive of restarting talks, Lavrov cautioned both capitals that negotiations would take a long time. Ahead of planned meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers at margins of annual OSCE Ministerial Council in Vienna scheduled for late Dec, OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs met with both ministers to discuss agenda; issued statement 16 Nov saying sides are expected to finalise talks over expansion of the Office of the Personal Representative. During discussion at OSCE Permanent Council 9 Nov, both Russians and Americans called for increasing number of monitors in region. All sides and mediators made public announcements during Nov that all elements of a possible settlement plan are already on the table; agreed that any plan should include most controversial issues: status and land return. De facto NK authorities 22 Nov reported three fighters killed by land mine near line of contact previous day.

Long-awaited meeting between Armenian President Sargsyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev in Geneva 16 Oct, first in a year and a half, provided some hope for re-energising settlement process, however month saw no further progress in talks or security improvements. Few details reported from meeting; joint statement by foreign ministers and co-chairs expressed commitment to intensify negotiations and reduce tensions on Line of Contact (LOC). Immediately after meeting, Sargsyan said there could be no concessions on NK status issue, de facto republic would never return to Baku’s control; prior to meeting, Aliyev 10 Oct reiterated he would never submit to foundation of “another Armenian state” in region. Relative calm continued along LOC for third consecutive month, with occasional use of light weapons and snipers. Three Armenian soldiers reported killed 28 Sept, 10 and 19 Oct – latter two in north east, where violence spiked following presidents’ meeting. De facto NK defence ministry 22 Oct released video ostensibly showing Azeri use of mortars and rockets; Baku said it was in response to killing of one soldier. Both sides blamed each other for violation of presidents’ agreement to sustain peace along LOC and declared readiness to re-engage in combat.

Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers met on margins of UN General Assembly 23 Sept with mediation of OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs; in joint statement said that meeting between countries’ presidents “in the near future” expected to “enhance confidence and political will among the parties to find solutions to the remaining key settlement issues”. Addressing UNGA, Armenia’s President Sargsyan 20 Sept accused Azerbaijan of official policy of “Armenophobia”, promised to continue providing security and political support to de facto Nagorno-Karabakh (NK); also called on international community to prevent isolation of N-K. In his address next day, Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev called Sargsyan “a criminal” responsible for N-K war and ethnic Azerbaijanis killed during conflict in 1990s; promised to continue to “punish” Armenian side “as was done in April 2016” especially if any Azerbaijani civilians were threatened or attacked. Sides reported occasional use of only small arms during month, though intensity of shootings reportedly increased during the week of 13-22 Sept, with grenade launchers used in southern location of LoC. Armenian soldier reported killed in mine explosion 1 Sept.

Reportedly calmest month since April 2016 escalation saw decrease in regular exchange of fire, and both sides issuing fewer propaganda reports and statements. Shootings mainly by snipers; two Armenian soldiers reported killed 14 Aug and 27 Aug. Meanwhile, increase in activity reported on usually uneventful Armenian-Azerbaijani state border; one Armenian soldier reported wounded 1 Aug. Some observers fear NK tensions could re-escalate following scheduled meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in second half of Sept on margins of UNGA. U.S. interim co-chair of Minsk Group Richard Hoagland at press conference in Washington DC 23 Aug discussed main elements of NK talks, confirming that return of territories outside former NK autonomous oblast was essential part of peace process, and that all sides agreed with this – something Armenia hesitated to confirm in public. Hoagland also said status of remaining NK territory should be defined in future public vote; Armenian side should keep wide corridor from NK to Armenia; and Azeri IDPs should gain right to return to their homes. Azerbaijani side confirmed elements and again called for resumed “substantial talks”; Armenian side said not all elements were reported correctly, but without specifying what was incorrect. U.S. 28 Aug announced new Minsk Group co-chair Andrew Schofer. In 29 July interview with country’s main TV talk-show, de-facto NK defence minister said his army ready to move forward and take control of new Azerbaijani-populated lands along LoC. De facto foreign ministers of NK and Georgian breakaway region Abkhazia 28 Aug signed Agreement on Cooperation in Stepanakert – first ever “official” document by two breakaway entities.

Regular exchange of fire during month with intensified activity in southern part of Line of Contact (LoC), including 4 July attack in Azerbaijan’s Alkhanli village which killed woman and her two-year-old granddaughter, prompting outcry in Baku. Armenia said shelling was response to Azerbaijani rockets originating from civilian-populated area. Azerbaijani army put on alarm 6 July, Armenian side also declared its readiness for large-scale escalation. Armenian side reported at least one soldier killed and three wounded 7 July; both sides reported regular use of mortars and grenade-launchers, and use of drones and rockets in southern part of LoC; Azerbaijan 30 July reported military casualty. OSCE Minsk Group mediators 5 July called for restraint, made additional efforts to bring sides together for high-level talks, helping stem escalation. Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev 10 July met U.S. Sec State Rex Tillerson in Istanbul; Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers met Russian counterpart in Vienna 11 July, participated in detailed talks same day in Brussels with Minsk Group co-chairs. Russian President Putin held unplanned meeting with Aliyev 21 July. Aliyev in 12 July speech said he expected Armenia to make concessions leading to “restoration of territorial integrity” of Azerbaijan, excluded corresponding steps from his side; President Sargsyan 16 July ruled out any unilateral concessions, again called on Azerbaijan to implement agreements reached at 2016 summits in Vienna and St. Petersburg. Azerbaijani authorities handed keys of 50 houses in renovated village Jojug Marjanli near LoC to internally displaced persons during month; village returned to Baku’s full control in April 2016 after Azerbaijani army seized Lalatapa height in south of LoC. N-K de facto parliamentarians 19 July voted in Bako Sahakyan as de facto president for three-year transition period until new constitution comes into force; Sahakyan already in charge of de facto entity for ten years; Baku protested vote. Baku court 20 July sentenced Aleksandr Lapshin, Russian-language blogger and citizen of Israel, Russia and Ukraine, to three years’ prison for charges related to his travel to N-K, first such sentence of its kind; Lapshin requested extradition to Israel.