Incidents along Line of Contact (LoC) continued to increase, with at least five reported military casualties 16 June: four Armenian and one Azerbaijani. Armenian media 9 June reported attack at Baghanis village at Armenia-Azerbaijan state border. OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs 10-19 June toured region and called on sides to avoid further escalation; had meetings with leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and de facto Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K), travelled to N-K adjacent territories of Zangelan, Kubatly, Lachin, and Kelbajar, of which return to Baku’s direct control reportedly part of current peace plan. However prospects for resumption of substantial peace process and concessions by any side remain small. In 19 June statement co-chairs called on sides to restart negotiations on substance, said presidents expressed intention to resume political dialogue in attempt to find “compromise solution for the most controversial issues of the settlement”. Azerbaijani side continued to demand full withdrawal of Armenian military from conflict zone as first step in peace process; Armenian side stood by its demand for intensified peace monitoring of conflict zone as pre-condition for restart of talks. Co-chairs’ trip helped to pacify situation for several days, but also led to increased Armenian public outrage as incidents continued even as diplomats were visiting conflict area. EU spokesperson 22 June said ceasefire violations were “stark reminder that the status quo is unsustainable”, called for “de-escalation and restraint in deeds as well as in words”. U.S. State Department 21 June expressed concern over latest deadly incidents in conflict area, called for restraint.

New wave of escalation developed in conflict zone with both sides launching deliberate attacks mid-month. For first time ever, Azerbaijan 15 May used self-gilded missiles to destroy Armenian air-defence missile systems in southern section of LoC. Armenian side 16-17 May responded with attack on Azerbaijani military barracks in central section of the front line, most sensitive area of LoC due to close proximity to densely populated Azerbaijani villages. Both sides released detailed videos of attacks; no casualties reported. OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs responded swiftly with pacifying statement on developments; Armenian side interpreted statement as supporting its purpose for attack and blaming Azerbaijan for starting escalation, while Azerbaijani side said statement did not use right terminology and did not reflect Azerbaijan’s right to destroy enemy’s military equipment on its territory. Month saw overall increase in number of incidents with at least four Armenian soldiers reported killed 14, 17, 20 and 26 May, and car belonging to Armenian TV-channel attacked at LoC 10 May; both sides denied each other’s accusations of provocations. Armenia and Azerbaijan foreign ministers meeting in Moscow 28 May agreed to increase number of OSCE monitors observing conflict to seven; no agreement on monitors’ mandate and area of operation. Azerbaijan 4 May vetoed extension of mandate for OSCE mission to Armenia, saying one of its projects had helped increase Armenia’s ability to demine lands inside NK conflict zone; OSCE Yerevan office now scheduled to close 31 Aug. Addressing Armenian parliament 18 May, President Sargsyan reiterated that NK conflict could be resolved only if local Armenian population able to enjoy a level of sovereignty; also said Azerbaijan not the only party interested in settlement of conflict. Speaking on Republic Day 28 May, President Aliyev reiterated NK conflict could be resolved only if breakaway region returns to Baku’s direct control and all NK-based Armenian military are withdrawn from area.

Month saw relative stability in conflict zone with occasional exchange of fire, mainly at NE and south of Line of Contact (LoC). Three Armenian soldiers reported killed 20, 25 and 28 April. Azerbaijan conducted military exercises close to LoC 16-21 April; Armenia complained of lack of advance notice. Mediators continued attempts to bring sides together for political talks. During 27 March press-conference, U.S. interim Minsk Group co-chair Richard Hoagland revealed plan to organise meeting of foreign ministers (FMs) in Moscow or elsewhere, followed by talks at presidential level. FMs’ meeting 28 April finished with agreement to continue dialogue but no date set for high-level talks. Leaders on both sides spoke about readiness to engage in war on anniversary of April 2016 escalation.

Number of incidents along the Line of Contact (LoC) down on previous month, though mortar strikes and use of grenade launchers continued. Azerbaijan 11 March reported one soldier dead; Armenian side 28 March reported one of its soldiers killed, another on 31 March. After weeks of increasing tensions, military on both sides appeared to relax amid Novruz Bayrami holidays in Azerbaijan and preparation for April parliamentary elections in Armenia. OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs toured region 11-28 March, while OSCE monitors 1 and 15 March conducted trips to conflict zone. NK-based military 22-25 March conducted exercises led by Armenia and de facto leadership. Armenian President Sargsyan visited Paris 8 March, while Azerbaijani FM met with his counterpart in Moscow same day: French President Hollande also called for mechanisms to investigate the incidents, which would help “prevent the incidents and punish the acts that are against peace”; Russian FM continued to propose his formula for NK peace settlement, discussed since late 2015 but opposed by both sides, involving control of certain areas in NK conflict zone being transferred from Armenian to Azerbaijani side in exchange for agreed status for rest of breakaway region.

Exchange of fire intensified on different sections of Line of Contact (LoC), with reports of mortars and anti-tank guns on NE and Central sections, in deadliest month for both sides since April 2016 escalation. At least eight Armenian soldiers reported killed in mortar and sniper attacks 15 Jan-28 Feb. Azerbaijani side reported at least six casualties including six soldiers killed during 25 Feb exchange of fire on southern section of LoC, in most serious incident since start of 2017; OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs 26 Feb called on sides to cease movement of heavy military equipment and to allow collection of the dead. Escalation accompanied by calls within NK to escalate military response, comes amid signs of military build-up on both sides on central section of LoC. Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs met in Munich 17 Feb for talks mediated by OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, intending to urge resumption of negotiations suspended in Dec. Final statement included warning that any use of force might lead to “devastating” results. FMs agreed on further meetings, no mention of presidential-level talks. One Azerbaijani soldier 1 Feb deserted to de facto NK. NK 20 Feb conducted de facto referendum on new constitution adopting presidential system, abolishing position of de facto PM and transferring some responsibilities to de facto parliament. De facto electoral commission reported 87.6% of voters supported change, turnout 76%. New constitution also permits current de facto President Bako Sahakyan, expected to finish his second term in July, to stay for three-year transitional period, allows him to run again in 2020. Azerbaijan and international community declared referendum illegal; Minsk Group co-chairs said referendum needed to improve public life in NK, but would not define final status. Azerbaijan 23 Feb added three members of European Parliament to its international wanted list for observing de facto referendum.

Month saw occasional exchange of fire on different sections of Line of Contact, both in main locations of incidents in recent months – N and NE sections – and intensified shooting in S and SE sections. Azerbaijani side reported one soldier killed mid Jan, Armenian side five soldiers killed. Russian FM Sergey Lavrov 17 Jan spoke about need to resume talks on post-April 2016 escalation proposals (increase of OSCE Special Representative’s office and introduction of investigative mechanism), and about his vision of conflict settlement formula. Negotiation process remains in deadlock, with Azerbaijan demanding guarantees that Armenia will agree on some major concessions in peace process, and Yerevan denying prospects for any significant shift in its stance till incidents cease. Armenian and Azerbijani FMs scheduled to meet on margins of Munich Security Conference 17-19 Feb. Ahead of referendum in de facto NK republic on new constitution scheduled for 20 Feb, observers expressed concern over changes which would solidify power of president and abolish PM position; would also allow current de facto President Bako Sahakyan to stay in power after end of his second term in July 2017 for “transitional period” and allow him to run for same office in 2020.

Formal meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs at OSCE Ministerial Council in Germany 8-9 Dec to further discuss proposed strengthening of OSCE monitoring in NK, under discussion since April escalation, and next steps in peace process, did not take place; the two ministers met only informally. Occasional exchanges of fire in Northern and NE sections of Line of Contact during month; Armenia 5 and 8 Dec reported at least two of its soldiers killed. Armenian President Sargsyan visited military bases and different sections of front line in NK 8-11 Dec; Azerbaijani President Aliyev also visited front line early Dec. New French Minsk co-chair Stéphane Visconti visited Armenia and Azerbaijan mid-month; U.S. 30 Dec named Richard Hoagland its new interim Minsk Group co-chair. Tensions exacerbated by deadly clash between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces in northern section of their shared border 29 Dec (see Armenia).

Ahead of possible meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs with OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs 10 Dec, little optimism on prospects of agreement on peace monitoring mechanisms proposed following escalation of conflict in April and intended to prevent future flare-ups and advance solution. Armenia’s FM 16 Nov said Azerbaijan did not want to agree on introduction of investigation mechanism for Line of Contact (LoC) incidents. Spokesperson for Azerbaijan’s FM 22 Nov said there would be no need for investigation mechanism if Armenia would withdraw its army from NK. Azerbaijani President Aliyev made several statements on need to return control over NK, by force if needed, including during 12 Nov trip to southern part of frontline. Intensified exchange of fire in northern and NE sections of LoC 10-12 Nov, with grenade launchers and guns reportedly used by both sides. At least two soldiers reported dead by both sides during month. De facto NK authorities 8 Nov revealed draft of new Constitution, which enables current leadership to stay in power for next thirteen years, overriding long-time efforts in NK to introduce some form of democratic de facto governance. De facto President to become sole leader of de facto republic with symbolic control of local parliament; position of PM abolished. More than $15bn raised for NK during annual charity event by Hayastan All-Armenian Fund, with significant donations from U.S.- and Russia-based Armenian diaspora.

OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs held separate meetings with Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents and FMs, new Armenian defence minister and de facto N-K authorities 23-25 Oct. Presidents Sargsyan and Aliyev each reiterated agreement reported in May and June to expand Office of Personal Representative of OSCE Chairperson-in-Office; U.S. co-chair James Warlick in 25 Oct Yerevan meeting emphasised need to discuss all elements of a comprehensive settlement. Warlick 27 Oct said Azerbaijani and Armenian FMs will meet at OSCE meeting in Germany 8-9 Dec. Month saw moderate increase in rate and intensity of ceasefire violations along line of contact (LoC). Mutual accusations of ceasefire violations continued; among others Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian forces mid-month reported “first attempted incursion” by Azerbaijani forces since April; Baku claimed Armenian units were responsible for numerous violations, including use of large calibre machine guns.

Armenia and Azerbaijan traded accusations of repeated ceasefire violations. Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K) and Armenian defence ministry condemned Azerbaijan for killing Armenian soldier on Karabakh-Azerbaijan line of contact 2 Sept. In 16 Sept speech at Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Bishkek, Armenian President Sargsyan expressed support for OSCE Minsk Group process, asserted state would accept “reasonable mutual compromise” on N-K. OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs met with Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs 20 Sept on sidelines of UNGA; FMs accused each other of impeding process toward peaceful settlement. UN human rights chief Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein highlighted continuing inability to send UN fact-finding missions to N-K since April clashes; N-K de facto officials blamed Baku for obstructing access to area.