CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
2 activists detained briefly 1 Aug for public display of country’s historic flag replaced in 1995 by modified Soviet-era flag. 3 activists detained over month for distributing anti-govt materials. Belarusian and Russian presidents exchanged accusations over alleged remarks made by President Lukashenka over Georgia’s breakaway republics.
Airing of negative documentaries about President Lukashenka on Gazprom-owned Russian NTV and subsequent broadcast of interview with Georgian President Saakashvili on Belarus state TV signaled deepening fall-out between Moscow and Minsk. Still, LukashenkĐ° 5 July signed documents for joining customs union announced early month between Russia and Kazakhstan.
Gas deliveries from Russia resumed 24 June after govt paid outstanding debt. Followed 21 June order by Russian President Medvedev to cut supplies due to $192m in unpaid bills. Move prompted Belarusian retaliation 22 June halting all gas transit deliveries to Europe, claiming unpaid transit fees by Russia. U.S. 8 June extended targeted sanctions against govt officials for 1 year.
President Lukashenka 4 May refused to extradite ousted Kyrgyz President Bakiyev after request by interim Kyrgyz govt. Russian PM Putin 28 May announced Russia, Kazakhstan to launch customs union 1 July leaving Belarus out. Energy deal between Russia, Belarus failed earlier same day.
Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka 25 Apr rebuked Russia for not paying for its military bases in country, threatened to boycott 8 May Collective Security Treaty Organisation meeting.
During 15-17 March visit to Caracas, President Lukashenka signed series of agreements with counterpart Chavez, including deal to import 80,000 barrels of oil per day starting 1 May 2010. In 24 March visit to Minsk, Chinese VP Xi Jinping promised $1bn in loan to Belarus. European Parliament 10 March adopted resolution condemning Feb clampdown on Union of Poles in Belarus, organisation representing large ethnic Polish minority; called for release of prisoners of conscience.
Relations with EU deteriorated over month after crackdown on Union of Poles in Belarus (ZPB), organisation representing 400,000-strong Polish minority. Poland responded with diplomatic offensive, threatened visa ban for Belarusian officials. EU High Rep Ashton in 16 Feb declaration denounced crackdown, threatened to withdraw EU engagement offer. EU Foreign Affairs Council 22 Feb expressed concern, noted setback in relations with Belarus. 1 Feb Presidential decree due to enter into force 1 July requires internet cafés to demand identification for entrance, internet providers to store data on individuals’ usage, block access to websites on govt request; decree denounced by activists, EU as violating media freedoms.
Disputes on energy tariffs with Russia continued. After ending brief suspension of oil supply to Belarus 3 Jan, Russia mid-month reduced flows to Belarusian refineries by a third amid failure of negotiations to agree tariff rates 5, 9 Jan. Supplies to Europe unaffected. 12, 14 Jan talks between Belarus, Russia on transit fees for electricity to Baltic states, Kaliningrad exclave failed to produce results.
President Lukashenka 4 Dec replaced economy, trade and tax ministers, citing effort to tackle economic stagnation. Russian President Medvedev 10 Dec pledged to support Belarusian economy. Russia cut oil flows to Belarus beginning Jan due to failure to agree terms for 2010.
EU FMs 17 Nov decided to extend sanctions regime for Belarus, mainly comprising travel bans on top officials, for another year, but continue suspending sanctions; will also offer talks on easing visa rules. Easing in response to Belarus’ recent release of political prisoners, dialogue with Brussels. Italian PM Berlusconi in Minsk 30 Nov, first Western leader to visit Belarus in 10 years. Belarus 27 Nov signed customs union with Russia, Kazakhstan.
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