CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Over 20 activists detained following anti-Russia protests in Minsk 9 Sept, same day as arrival of Russian troops ahead of joint Belarusian-Russian military maneuvers “West 2009” beginning 18 Sept. Police broke up unsanctioned opposition rally numbering some 40 in Minsk 16 Sept, arrested some 20 protesters. EU presidency Sweden 17 Sept called on govt to improve human rights, democracy, refrain from use of force in dealing with peaceful demonstrations, avoid usurping media freedoms.
During Minsk visit U.S. Asst Sec State for Europe Phillip Gordon 15 Aug said U.S. wants to improve bilateral relations. President Lukashenka and Russian President Medvedev met for talks in Sochi 27 Aug.
Further signs of trade war with Russia as Belarus closed Russian fuel pipeline and Russia banned some Belarusian meat imports.
Further signs of souring relations with Russia as Belarus refused to attend 14 June Collective Security Treaty Organization summit and sign agreement on joint rapid reaction force, after Russia banned import of Belarusian dairy products 6 June – ban lifted 17 June. Followed President Lukashenka statement that Russia retracted a $500m loan offer when Minsk refused to recognize independence of Georgian breakaway republics. Russian energy company Gazprom 17 June demanded payment of $230m debt, denied by Belarus. IMF increased Belarus loan from $2.5b to $3.5b.
Inclusion of Belarus in EU’s Eastern Partnership (EP) protested by some 200 Belarusian nationals at EP inauguration in Prague 7 May; President Lukashenka not present at summit. Lukashenka 5 May announced willingness to consider political reforms. Russia 28 May said will not give Belarus $500 million loan.
President Lukashenko in Rome 27 Apr met with Pope and President Berlusconi in 1st official European visit since 1995. Opposition European Coalition 20 Apr announced planned “Independence March” 14 May. Belarus invited by EU Presidency to Eastern Partnership Summit 7 May in Prague.
EU FMs 16 March agreed to suspend travel ban on 40 Belarusian officials for further 9 months; 20 March approved inclusion of Belarus in EU’s new Eastern Partnership program, aimed at strengthening relations with 6 former western Soviet republics. Some 4,000 joined peaceful 25 March opposition rally in Minsk. Russia 6 March approved $500 mn loan to Belarus.
Govt 3 Feb signed joint regional air defence system treaty with Russia. After 4 Feb Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) agreement on joint rapid reaction force, Belarus 10 Feb said will not provide combat troops for cooperative security actions. Following 19 Feb visit by EU foreign policy head Solana and 23 Feb EU FM meeting on European Neighborhood Policy, debate over whether Belarus should be included in EU’s proposed Eastern Partnership. Polish Deputy PM visited Minsk 23 Feb. Unauthorized annual Youth Front pro- EU Valentines Day March broken up violently by police.
OSCE 22 Jan met with officials and opposition activists to discuss possible changes to election law. United Democratic Forces activists 19 Jan reported difficulties finding premises for founding meeting for project to change election laws – meeting and registration required by law before signatures can be collected. President Lukashenko 19 Jan said Belarus interested in full cooperation with EU; FM in Brussels 27 Jan for talks with EU troika. Govt 2 Jan devalued ruble by 20%; fears of price rises, further devaluation, sparked widespread spending, purchase of hard currency.
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