CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Opposition leader sought to reignite anti-govt protests and announced bid to hold talks with govt amid concerns over ongoing crackdown on dissent. In attempt to restart anti-govt protests that began after disputed presidential election in Aug 2020, exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya 18 March called for “second wave of protests” to begin 25 March; police 25 March reportedly arrested over 200 protesters. Tsikhanouskaya 18 March said UN and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe were “ready to organize a platform and act as mediators, as well as to force the regime to negotiate” and announced online poll aimed at delivering democratic mandate for pursuing talks with President Lukashenka; as of 19 March, over 450,000 people had signed poll. General Prosecutor’s Office 5 March said it filed extradition request with Lithuania for Tsikhanouskaya’s return to Belarus; Lithuanian FM next day responded that “hell will first have to freeze over before we consider your requests”. Tsikhanouskaya 17 March addressed U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee and urged U.S. to apply pressure on govt by expanding sanctions to include “judges, state-owned enterprises, security officers, oligarchs” and other officials. Prosecutor General 29 March opened terrorism investigation into Tsikhanouskaya alleging plot to conduct arson and plant explosives in capital Minsk and other cities. Lukashenka 2 March said: “The [new] constitution… we will adopt in January-February next year. And that is all that the transfer of power will be about”, and 19 March said: “There will be other presidents. I can guarantee this”. Meanwhile, UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders 19 March expressed concern over “increasing crackdown against human rights defenders in Belarus” amid reports of “raids on offices, arrests of human rights defenders and the hampering of lawyers’ work”; authorities 22 March reportedly detained leader of opposition United Civil Party. U.S. House of Representatives’ Human Rights Commission 13 March called on Minsk to immediately release jailed blogger Ihar Losik who has been detained since June 2020.
Mass protests over disputed Aug presidential elections continued. Hundreds of people 3, 10, 17, 23 and 31 Jan protested in capital Minsk, calling for President Lukashenka’s resignation; police detained dozens. Notably, police 23 Jan arrested around 100 people in Minsk who formed human chains in demonstrations demanding free and fair elections. Prosecutor General Andrey Shved 4 Jan announced proposed changes to legislation to strengthen prosecution powers to ensure nobody “who had endangered the public order …would get away from strict responsibility”. Authorities 6 Jan extended pre-trial detention of opposition leader Maryya Kalesnikava until 8 March; Kalesnikava was arrested in Sept 2020 and charged with calling for action aimed at damaging national security. Belarus opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya 9 Jan met with Lithuanian FM Gabrielius Landsbergis to secure support for opposition; Tsikhanouskaya 18 Jan announced that she requested Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) support to secure her safety when she returns to Belarus and called for OSCE-facilitated talks between EU, Lukashenka and opposition to resolve crisis.
Mass protests over disputed Aug presidential elections continued. Thousands throughout month protested in capital Minsk, calling for free and fair elections and challenging govt’s Nov ban on mass demonstrations. Police 6 Dec arrested more than 300 people during protests, using water cannons, armoured vehicles and military trucks to disperse crowds; police 13 Dec detained 135 people and 20 Dec arrested over 100 demonstrators during opposition protests. Hundreds 27 Dec marched in Minsk demanding resignation of President Lukashenka amid heavy police presence; police detained 13 protesters. U.S. 23 Dec sanctioned four entities and 40 individuals for role in disputed election, while EU 17 Dec imposed third round of sanctions targeting seven entities and 29 individuals. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe 4 Dec urged govt to cancel results of disputed Aug election, immediately cease all violence against peaceful protesters and organise new presidential elections. Belarus opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya 16 Dec received European Parliament’s 2020 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought in Brussels on behalf of opposition Coordination Council. Prosecutor General’s Office 22 Dec opened criminal case against Tsikhanouskaya, accusing her and Coordination Council of forming extremist group to overthrow govt.
Mass protests continued throughout month following disputed Aug presidential elections. Thousands of people throughout month demonstrated in capital Minsk, demanding President Lukashenka’s resignation as police used teargas, water cannons and rubber bullets to disperse protesters; police 8 Nov arrested record 1,000 people who participated in mass demonstrations across country. Opposition supporter and children’s art teacher Raman Bandarenka 12 Nov died in hospital after plain-clothed security forces previous day detained and reportedly beat him at opposition rallying point “Square of Changes” in Minsk; govt 13 Nov denied responsibility for Bandarenka’s death, claiming it was result of street brawl. Thousands 12-15 Nov gathered in Bandarenka’s memory, forming human chains and marching on streets; police 15 Nov used teargas and water cannons to disperse protesters. Hundreds of retirees 23 Nov protested against Lukashenka in Minsk, holding portraits of Bandarenka; more than 1,000 pensioners 30 Nov also gathered in capital as police detained a dozen. Belarus opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya 1 Nov called on EU to step up sanctions against Lukashenka regime. UK FM Dominic Raab 5 Nov called for fresh presidential elections in Belarus, following independent report confirming that Aug election was “falsified” and exposing human rights violations committed by Lukashenka regime; govt 9 Nov expelled from Belarus two British diplomats who observed Sunday street protests in Minsk; UK next day retaliated by expelling two Belarus diplomats. EU 13 Nov warned that it could expand its sanctions on Lukashenka following Bandarenka’s death, describing Belarus authorities’ actions as “outrageous and shameful”. Lukashenka 27 Nov said he will resign when new constitution is adopted.
Mass demonstrations continued following disputed Aug presidential elections, resulting in clashes with police and large-scale arrests. Mass protests of thousands of people, including more than 100,000 on 4 Oct, 11 and 18 Oct demanded resignation of President Lukashenka and freedom for political prisoners, at which police turned water cannon, used tear gas, fired rubber bullets into air; hundreds arrested. In unprecedented move, Lukashenka 10 Oct visited detained opposition members in prison, talking with them over period of four hours; opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya same day said “event is a result of our pressure.” Interior ministry 12 Oct permitted police to use firearms against protesters “if need be”. After Tsikhanouskaya next day threatened mass workers’ protest if Lukashenka refused to resign by 25 Oct, over 100,000 anti-govt protesters 25 Oct marched in capital Minsk. Lukashenka next day ignored ultimatum, prompting factory workers, business owners and students to go on strike while thousands continued to rally in Minsk; dozens of factory workers and students subsequently fired and expelled for joining strikes. Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev 7 Oct announced that Russia put Tsikhanouskaya on its wanted criminals list for “criminal charge”. Meanwhile, EU member states 1 Oct agreed to impose sanctions on about 40 govt officials, excluding Lukashenka, on grounds of flawed presidential election; in response, govt 2 Oct accused EU of “striving towards deterioration of relations”, announced retaliatory sanctions and cancelled accreditation of all foreign journalists. After Lukashenka 9 Oct demanded Poland and Lithuania scale down their diplomatic missions, eight European countries, including UK and Germany, 5-9 Oct recalled ambassadors from Minsk in solidarity. European Parliament 22 Oct awarded Sakharov Prize for human rights to democratic opposition in Belarus, led by Tsikhanouskaya.
Mass demonstrations continued following disputed Aug presidential elections, leading to clashes with police and numerous arrests. Tens of thousands continued to gather throughout month in capital Minsk to demand President Lukashenka step down after disputed Aug vote; police clashed violently with demonstrators, detaining hundreds. In response to call from opposition leader Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, thousands of students 1 Sept boycotted start of school year and staged marches collecting signatures calling on Lukashenka to resign; security forces detained seven journalists covering protests and 4 Sept arrested five university students protesting in capital Minsk. After govt late Aug detained third member of opposition Coordination Council, other council member Pavel Latushka 2 Sept fled to Poland. Masked men 7 Sept reportedly detained protest leader Maria Kolesnikava in Minsk and 8 Sept attempted to forcibly expel her from country across border with Ukraine; masked men 9 Sept also detained opposition leader Maxim Znak. Lukashenka 8 Sept said he would not step down but remained open to early presidential elections. UN Human Rights Council 14 Sept confirmed it would hold urgent debate on human rights situation in Belarus. U.S. 4 Sept deployed 500 troops and 40 tanks to Lithuania near border with Belarus for pre-agreed two-month deployment; Russia and Belarus throughout month held joint military drills in Brest region near border with Poland. Head of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin 16 Sept accused U.S. of “poorly disguised attempt” to organise coup in Belarus. Russian President Putin 14 Sept confirmed after talks with Lukashenka that Russia would lend $1.5bn to Minsk. Lukashenka 23 Sept sworn in for new term, prompting thousands to take to streets; police fired water cannon to disperse crowds and arrested hundreds; Pavel Latushka same day called on protesters “to immediately start a civil disobedience campaign”; U.S., UK, Germany, European Parliament and Canada were among actors that refused to recognise Lukashenka. UK and Canada 29 Sept imposed sanctions on Lukashenka, his son and eight senior officials. French President Macron 29 Sept said he hoped mediation will begin soon.
Mass demonstrations erupted in run-up to and following disputed presidential elections, leading to clashes with police and large-scale arrests. Mass protests against President Lukashenko’s bid for sixth term continued ahead of 9 Aug election: police 8-9 Aug launched violent crackdown on thousands of protesters in capital Minsk. Central Election Commission 10 Aug declared Lukashenko winner with 80% of votes, while opposition candidate Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya received 9.9%; opposition same day rejected result, accusing govt of rigging vote and calling for dialogue on peaceful transfer of power. Tsikhanouskaya 11 Aug fled to Lithuania following alleged threats from govt. Thousands took to streets in following weeks including in Minsk, Brest, Grodno, Vitsebsk and other cities demanding Lukashenko step down; police fired tear gas, rubber bullets, stun grenades and used batons to disperse crowds, killing at least three and detaining thousands; protesters in return set up barricades in several areas of Minsk. UK and U.S. 10 Aug expressed grave concern over violence and flawed election; EU foreign policy chief 10 Aug called for immediate release of detainees while UN human rights chief 12 Aug described detentions as “clear violation of international human rights standards”; Belarus govt 13 August issued apology for use of force and released over 2,000 protestors. Lukashenko 15 Aug said “Russia will provide comprehensive assistance to ensure the security of Belarus”; Kremlin 19 Aug said Russia saw no need for intervention for time being. Lukashenko 17 Aug refused to hold new elections while expressing readiness to share power; Tsikhanouskaya’s representative next day announced launch of Coordination Council with aim of negotiating transfer of power; Lukashenko denounced move as “attempt to seize power” and court 25 Aug sentenced two high profile members of Council to ten days in jail. EU 19 Aug announced intention to impose sanctions on individuals; Russian FM 25 Aug warned EU and U.S. against move. Defence ministry 23 Aug warned protestors that army would respond to any “violation of order” near presidential residence; tens of thousands same day gathered peacefully near residence. Supreme Court 25 Aug rejected Tsikhanouskaya’s appeal to annul election results.
Mass demonstrations continued in lead-up to Aug presidential elections, leading to sporadic clashes with police and large-scale arrests. Amid President Lukashenko’s bid for sixth term in office, which triggered major demonstrations in June, Central Election Commission (CEC) 14 July confirmed registration of five presidential candidates for 9 Aug elections, including Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya - wife of video blogger and former presidential candidate Syarhey Tsikhanouski who was incarcerated in May for taking part in unsanctioned rally; CEC also barred nine other candidates from running, including main opposition candidates Viktor Babariko and former Ambassador to U.S. Valery Tsepkalo; Tsepkalo’s campaign said Tsepkalo would challenge ruling in court. Several hundred protesters 14 July gathered in capital Minsk to protest CEC’s barring of Babariko and Tsepkalo, while social media reported protests in Brest and Gomel cities; in Minsk, violent clashes same day erupted between police and demonstrators, with police reporting arrest and detention of over 250 protestors; NGO Amnesty International 15 July condemned police’s “excessive and unnecessary use of force.” Around 2,500 Babariko supporters next day protested against decision to reject candidacy outside CEC building in Minsk. Representatives of Babariko and Tsepkalo 17 July united behind registered candidate Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya to “defeat” the “long-time dictatorial regime”; united opposition parties 19 and 24 July held three mass rallies of about 5,000 people in Minsk, Dzyarzhynsk and Vitebsk, urging voters to cast ballots for Tsikhanouskaya. Tens of thousands 30 July rallied in Minsk in support of Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya in reportedly largest campaign rally to date. Tsepkalo campaign officials 24 July confirmed Tsepkalo had fled to Russia. Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe 15 July said it had not received invitation to monitor Aug election while Commonwealth of Independent States 20 July confirmed it would deploy monitoring mission. Security Council Secretary Andrey Ravkov 29 July confirmed arrest of 33 suspected Russian mercenaries on allegations that they entered country to “destabilise the situation during the election campaign”.
Major demonstrations erupted across country opposing President Lukashenko’s attempt to run for sixth term in August election, and police arrested dozens of opposition members and protesters, including main opposition candidate. Following end of May protests of 1,000 demonstrators in capital Minsk against his bid for sixth presidential term, Lukashenko 1 June announced that he would not allow “any colour revolutions” and banned protests until 9 August presidential election. Hundreds of opposition supporters 6-7 June rallied in Minsk and other cities in attempt to collect 100,000 signatures necessary to register alternative independent presidential candidates. Belarusian human rights NGO Vyasna 19 June reported police arrested over 40 activists and prominent members of opposition, including opposition leader Mikalay Statkevich, and leader of non-registered opposition Belarusian Christian Democratic Party Paval Sevyarynets; those arrested subsequently detained for taking part in “unsanctioned rallies”. Authorities 18 June arrested main opposition presidential candidate Viktor Babariko on suspicion of financial crimes, including allegations of tax evasion and money laundering while he was head of Belgazprombank (local unit of Russia's Gazprombank); Babariko’s campaign team same day called allegations “absurdity” and released pre-recorded video message from Babariko proposing return to 1994 constitution, including limit on presidential terms. Several thousand protestors 18-20 June joined opposition rallies in Minsk, Gomel, Babruysk, and Vitebsk in solidarity with Babariko; police reportedly arrested over 100 protestors and journalists in Minsk and dozens in other cities. Lukashenko 19 June said that govt had thwarted plan of political forces “both from the West and from the East” to destabilise country, while Babariko same day said actions taken against Belgazprombank were part of intimidation campaign conducted on “political orders”; EU 19 June called on govt to release Babariko immediately, and urged authorities to ensure “meaningful and competitive political contest” in August election. U.S. Congressman Alcee Hastings, head of U.S. Helsinki Commission, 25 June said Belarusian authorities made free and fair election “impossible” due to arrests and intimidation throughout month. Lukashenko 3 June dismissed current govt under PM Sergei Rumas and named former head of state military-industrial committee Roman Golovchenko as new PM; Lukashenko described move as “a natural process” to “determine an almost final composition of the government” ahead of election.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.