CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Sudan

Incumbent President Bashir won 13-16 April presidential election with 95.05% of vote amid widespread voter apathy, low turnout. Arab League, AU and IGAD observer missions all endorsed polls. EU 9 April criticised failure to initiate genuine national dialogue, said would not support elections; Troika (U.S., UK, Norway) 20 April denounced elections as not credible. Security forces violently dispersed anti-election protest in Khartoum 8-9 April; Human Rights Watch late-April accused govt of arresting and abusing opponents. Govt late April accused UNAMID of killing seven civilians in clashes in Kass, South Darfur 23-24 April; UNAMID denied accusations, said troops acted proportionally and in self-defence after two patrols were attacked. Growing tensions with S Sudan (see S Sudan): govt 27 April accused JEM of crossing border from S Sudan’s Western Bahr El Ghazal to attack Darfur and N Kordofan, threatened to destroy rebel bases in S Sudan.

Africa

Sudan

Fighting in S Kordofan continued: SPLM-N early March claimed attack on Kalogi, north of state capital Kadugli; Sudanese Armed forces (SAF) claimed attack repulsed. SPLM-N chief Yasir Arman 14 March said attack was defensive, denied earlier SPLM-N claims that attacks were aimed at disrupting April elections. SPLM-N 28 March clashed with SAF in Habeela, S Kordofan. Violence and insecurity in Darfur continued, mainly in eastern Jebel Marra area, leaving several dead. Sudan and S Sudan 30 March resumed talks on disputed Abyei region; ruling National Congress Party 29 March rejected invitation to pre-dialogue meeting. Sudan 26 March confirmed participation in Saudi-led military campaign against Yemen’s Huthi insurgency. Sudan 23 March signed Nile agreement (see Ethiopia).

Africa

Sudan

Fighting continued in S Kordofan: SPLM-N claimed al-Jineziya, Angartu and Um Turuq-Turuq taken 14-16 Feb. Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) 12 Feb claimed SPLM-N attack on recently recaptured areas repelled. Election campaigning began 24 Feb amid continued crackdown on civil society and media. Opposition National Consensus Forces umbrella group, several other opposition parties and Muslim Brotherhood announced boycott of elections; Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) only mainstream opposition party not boycotting polls. Civilian opposition, civil society and armed rebel signatories to 4 Dec “Sudan Call” met in Berlin 25-27 Feb to discuss peace, national dialogue: govt not included in talks. New chief of UN forces in disputed Abyei enclave 17 Feb called for resumption of dialogue between Sudan and South Sudan; UNSC 26 Feb renewed mandate of UN mission to Abyei, called for resumption of Abyei Joint Oversight Commission (AJOC) discussions on June 2011 demilitarisation agreement. AJOC co-chair 13 Feb announced AJOC meeting late Feb. Intercommunal clashes increased in area amid rising tensions between Misseriya nomads and sedentary Ngok Dinka.

Africa

Sudan

Renewed clashes between army and rebels in Darfur and S Kordofan following Dec suspension of AUHIP talks between govt and Sudan Revolutionary Front member organisations, including reported aerial bombardment 27 Jan which destroyed several villages in Golo, Central Darfur. UN report released late Jan said over 3,000 villages destroyed in targeted attacks on civilians in Darfur in last year. Parliament 4 Jan approved eighteen amendments to 2005 interim constitution including presidential appointment and dismissal of state governors, expanded role for intelligence services, and inclusion of 2011 Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD). Latter amendment seen as reinforcing govt’s demand that DDPD serve as framework for talks with Darfur rebels. Preparations for April presidential and legislative elections ongoing: electoral body 15 Jan extended deadline for applications to 22 Jan; Democratic Unionist Party announced participation; President Bashir 11 Jan officially submitted candidacy on ruling National Congress Party platform.

Africa

Sudan

Govt-rebel talks failed as govt continued to reject comprehensive approach, raising fears of renewed military offensives. AUHIP-mediated talks between govt and Darfur rebels adjourned 4 Dec; parallel talks between govt and SPLM-N rebels focused on Blue Nile and S Kordofan halted 9 Dec amid increasing violence in S Kordofan. Civilian opposition groups, civil society representatives and armed rebel groups 4 Dec signed “Sudan Call” agreement on preconditions for joining National Dialogue; govt warned political leaders would “pay a price” for alliance with rebels; two Sudan Call signatories, opposition National Consensus Forces chairman Farouk Abu Issa and human rights activist Amin Mekki Madani, arrested 6 Dec along with several other civil society members. Increased govt pressure on UNAMID: two UN officials expelled late-month; UNSG Ban said expulsions “unacceptable”. ICC 12 Dec suspended investigation into Darfur atrocities citing limited resources, UNSC deadlock.

Africa

Sudan

Govt and SPLM-N 15 Nov endorsed AUHIP draft framework agreement on conflicts in South Kordofan and Blue Nile, including roadmap for participation of rebels in national dialogue, general elections and transitional period. Talks adjourned 17 Nov to give parties time to study draft agreement. Fighting nevertheless resumed in Blue Nile 24 Nov, both sides claimed responsibility for attacks. Parallel talks with Darfur rebels started 23 Nov, for the first time under AUHIP mediation in Addis Ababa; mediators hoping to achieve “synchronised” cessation of hostilities to merge both processes into national dialogue but govt again rejected idea, continued to insist on separate talks with Darfur rebels, called for them to join piecemeal Doha peace deal. President Bashir 30 Nov vowed to try Sadiq al-Mahdi, leader of opposition National Umma Party, for alliance with Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) rebel coalition. Local Radio Dabanga 2 Nov alleged mass rape of 200 girls by Sudanese Armed Forces in Tabit, North Darfur late Oct. Govt blocked UNAMID investigation in Tabit until 9 Nov. UNAMID 10 Nov said no evidence of rape but leaked confidential report revealed investigation monitored by Sudanese Armed Forces, witnesses intimidated. Govt 21 Nov refused UNSG and UNSC demands for new UNAMID visit to Tabit, asked UNAMID to prepare exit strategy, 26 Nov ordered closure of its human rights department.

Africa

Sudan

Parallel govt-SPLM-N, govt-Darfur rebel group talks, postponed by AUHIP to 25 Oct, still delayed; govt said talks delayed as negotiators from ruling National Congress Party (NCP) preparing for party’s general convention, others travelling; SPLM-N 27 Oct said AUHIP extended invitation to resume talks 12 Nov. NCP general convention held 20-25 Oct; incumbent President Bashir selected as party’s presidential candidate, new consultative council elected. National Electoral Commission, NCP refused to postpone April 2015 general elections. Bashir chaired second meeting of national dialogue committee 19 Oct, discussed roadmap for national dialogue, Addis Ababa framework agreement, expansion of committee’s mandate. 83 political parties agreed to participate but opposition National Consensus Forces, armed Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) continued to demand end of war before dialogue. Several opposition parties including National Umma Party signed Teiba Charter calling for overthrow of Bashir regime. Sudan Armed Forces 10 Oct announced plans for major offensive on SRF in S Kordofan. Two UNAMID peacekeepers killed in attack by unidentified assailants in N Darfur.

Africa

Sudan

Armed opposition Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF), political opposition National Umma Party (NUP), National Dialogue 7+7 Committee 4 Sept signed statement of principles on inclusive national dialogue under auspices of African Union High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), breaking months of deadlock. President Bashir, ruling National Congress Party (NCP) welcomed agreement; authorities 3 Sept released Sudanese Congress Party (SCP) Sec Gen Samia Kiir, arrested 11 July; 15 Sept released SCP head Ibrahim El Sheikh, detained since 8 June. National Consensus Forces (NCF) continued to boycott national dialogue; representative Mohamed Hassan Babiker detained in Khartoum 12 Sept. AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) 15 Sept praised positive developments, endorsed AUHIP-led meeting of parties and sequenced cessation of hostilities in South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur; urged international community to consider sanctions lift, debt relief, economic support. AUHIP head Mbeki to lead meetings with govt, rebel groups in Oct; but Bashir 27 Sept said NUP leader al-Mahdi to return to Sudan only after rescinding Aug Paris Declaration, 30 Sept rejected SRF participation in talks, ruled out comprehensive solution to conflicts. UNAMID and joint chief mediator for Darfur Mohamed Ibn Chambas to step down, welcomed Mbeki’s leadership in mediation.

Africa

Sudan

Political opposition National Umma Party (NUP) and armed opposition Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) 8 Aug signed “Paris Declaration”, pledging to unilateral SRF 2-month ceasefire, efforts to end war, genuine dialogue towards transitional govt and democracy; opposition parties welcomed declaration. Ruling National Congress Party (NCP) 18 Aug rejected declaration; 6 Aug maintained commitment to April 2015 elections. National Dialogue Committee 9 Aug announced framework agreement, 31 Aug announced 6 subcommittees, possible release of political prisoners; talks to convene early Sept; opposition SRF, National consensus Forces (NCF), NUP still boycotting. Govt forces 5-7 Aug raided South Darfur IDP camps; Sudan Liberation Army-Abdelwahid faction (SLA-AW) 13 Aug attacked Jebel Marra govt bases. Rezeigat and Ma’aliya tribes late Aug clashed over land, cattle in East Darfur, UN reported over 300 killed. UNAMID 11 Aug announced launch of investigations into allegations UNAMID covered-up crimes by govt-backed militias in Darfur.

Africa

Sudan

National dialogue committee, comprised of govt and opposition parties, 24 July agreed on roadmap for process: talks to start early Aug, to last 1 to 3 months; dialogue still boycotted by National Umma Party (NUP) and Sudanese Congress Party (SCP). Popular Congress Party (PCP) leader al-Turabi 28 July asked for April 2015 elections to be delayed. Media repression increased; armed men 19 July raided offices of Al-Tayar Daily; State Minister for Information Yasir Youssef 17 July said press censorship necessary for political stability. EU 9 July expressed concerns over detention of opposition party members, youth  activists,  human rights defenders and journalists. Opposition unified as regime toughened: SPLM-N 10 July signed MoA with Sudanese Revolutionary Awakening Council (SRAC), led by Darfur Arab militia chief Musa Hilal; Hamar and Ma’aliya Arab tribes 10 July signed agreement to end fighting in East Darfur and West Kordofan, after clashes over land and oil areas; SRF and opposition delegation 16 July urged EU to support demands for comprehensive political solution and return to democracy. Despite progress, splits in rebel Abdel-Wahid Mohammed al-Nur’s Sudan Liberation Army (SLA-AW); 150 killed and 100 injured in Misseriya Arab intra-tribal clashes in West Kordofan early  July. UN 3 July started investigations into allegations of UNAMID mismanagement, misreporting of facts, failure to protect civilians in Dar- fur; 16 July reported 7mn in need of aid amid nationwide violence and increasing refugee inflows from S Sudan.

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