CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Sudan

Sudanese Congress Party (SCP) leader Ibrahim El Sheikh arrested 8 June for accusing govt-affiliated Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of abuses against civilians; opposition National Umma Party (NUP) leader Sadiq al-Mahdi arrested 17 May for similar criticisms, released 15 June. Arrests, coupled with govt crackdown on civil liberties and lack of govt consultation with opposition over electoral law amendment, threaten National Dialogue; Reform Now Party (RNP) 4 June suspended participation; NUP 21 June demanded revisions to process. Fighting continued in S Kordofan, Blue Nile, Darfur: 110 SPLM-N fighters reportedly killed 9 June around Al-Atmur area; RSF 10 June promised continued attacks despite rainy season. U.S. 13 June accused govt of targeting civilians in S Kordofan and Blue Nile; Doctors Without Borders 16 June accused Sudanese Air Force of bombing hospital in Farandalla, S Kordofan. UN OCHA 1 June reported 300,000 new IDPs in Darfur and 85,000 S Sudanese refugees in Sudan since early 2014. Libya early month accused Sudan of supplying weapons to Islamist militias, govt 8 June denied accusations.

Africa

Sudan

Opposition National Umma Party (NUP) leader Sadiq al-Mahdi arrested 17 May following accusations newly-formed paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) committed human rights abuses in Darfur and S Kordofan; NUP 17 May suspended participation in National Dialogue. Fighting between govt forces, govt-backed militias and SPLM-N continued in S Kordofan: Sudanese Air Force 1-2 May reportedly bombed catholic hospital in Nuba Mountains, govt 8 May denied accusation; UN OCHA 19 May reported 116,000 displaced in April-May. Clashes continued in Darfur, including around Galab 19 May, El Fasher 20 May; 1 UNAMID peacekeeper killed 24 May, North Darfur. Defence Minister Abdurrahim Mohamed Hussein 23 May said army to launch second wave of “hot summer” operations. Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) late April and SPLM-N SG Arman 18 May urged complete cessation of hostilities.

Africa

Sudan

Opposition divided over Khartoum’s proposed “national dialogue”: Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and National Consensus Forces (NCF) 8 April demanded genuine national dialogue monitored by independent mechanism; Reform Now Party (RNP), Turabi-led Popular Congress Party (PCP), National Umma Party (NUP), Justice Party and others have agreed to talks. SRF 13 April accused govt of escalating military operations against civilians and armed opposition; NCF 19 April criticised govt decree banning political parties from holding meetings without authorities’ permission, called for transitional govt. Govt talks with SPLM-N resumed 22 April, SPLM-N 28 April agreed to negotiate framework agreement; govt accused them of “wasting time”. Ongoing fighting in S Kordofan: govt 7 April bombed JEM positions in region and in S Sudan’s Unity State. Wave of attacks in Darfur by Rapid Support Forces continued: JEM 1 April accused Khartoum of hiring Arab militias. Foreign Policy investigative report on UNAMID early April highlighted dependency on Khartoum, lack of neutrality, inefficiency; JEM 11 April blamed UN for turning blind eye and “legalizing genocide”; UNSC 3 April demanded better peacekeeping forces with more preventive and preemptive posture. Head of UN Population Fund expelled 9 April, accused of interference in internal affairs. Economy continued to deteriorate as EU, Saudi and Egyptian banks withdrew; Qatar 2 April announced $1bn grant as part of previously agreed aid package, 28 April announced $88mn for Darfur.

Africa

Sudan

President Bashir 14 March met with Islamist opposition Popular Congress Party (PCP) leader Hassan al-Turabi, agreed to accelerate preparations for national dialogue; National Umma Party (NUP) leader Sadiq al-Mahdi also accepted dialogue. Ruling National Congress Party (NCP) 30 March announced 58 parties agreed to dialogue. National Consensus Forces (NCF) coalition, of which PCP and NUP both part, 15 March issued “Shambat Declaration” rejecting dialogue unless, among other demands, political detainees released, wars in peripheries ended, laws restricting freedoms lifted. AUHIP-mediated talks with SPLM- N remained stalled. Renewed violence in Darfur; UN estimates some 100,000 civilians displaced since early 2014, 26 March said Khartoum had suspended refugee aid program in E Sudan. Following 7 March meeting with head of AU Commission, Darfur rebel groups claimed to have secured AU support for national dialogue to resolve armed conflicts; AU has not confirmed. Economic restrictions imposed 28 Feb by Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain began to take effect.

Africa

Sudan

Talks between govt and SPLM-N began 13 Feb under AUHIP auspices but quickly reached stalemate with both parties accusing other of inflexibility; AUHIP head Thabo Mbeki 18 Feb suspended talks for 10 days; govt 25 Feb agreed to draft framework agreement put forward by Mbeki. Some 5,000-6,000 Arab militiamen from S Darfur returned from deployment against SPLM-N in S Kordofan; militia accused of abuses against civilians in neighbouring N Kordofan prompting demonstrations in N Kordofan capital al-Obeid. Govt negotiations with JEM-Bashar on implementation of April 2013 power-sharing deal resumed 26 Feb. National Assembly 13 Feb urged govt to revoke Humanitarian Aid Commission’s (HAC) 1 Feb decision to suspend work of ICRC. UNSC 13 Feb extended sanctions monitoring panel for Sudan for 13 months.

Africa

Sudan

Ongoing sporadic protests against fuel and bread shortages; finance minister admitted Central Bank facing shortage of hard currency. President Bashir’s long-awaited speech on political reform 27 Jan failed to set out specific reform plan despite reports that ruling National Congress Party (NCP) had begun discussions with opposition on postponing 2015 elections for 2 years, amending elections law, changing composition of electoral commission. Conflict in Darfur, S Kordofan and Blue Nile continued. Bashir 6 Jan visited Juba, discussed deploying joint force to protect oil-fields in S Sudan. S Sudan opposition forces accused Justice and Equality Movement of fighting alongside S Sudan govt in Unity state (see S Sudan).

Africa

Sudan

Reshuffled cabinet unveiled 8 Dec; new appointees primarily from army and security services, as well as President Bashir’s Ja’ali tribe; VP Ali Osman Mohammed Taha replaced by Major General Bakri Hassan Saleh from president’s old guard. AU-UN joint chief mediator and UNAMID head Mohammed Ibn Chambas held consultations in Addis Ababa 9-11 Dec; rebels reiterated need for joint approach on Darfur, Blue Nile and S Kordofan. Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) rebels 1 Dec claimed over 100 Sudanese security personnel killed in attack on 3 military convoys in Jebel Abu Domou, near border between N and S Kordofan. Army 21 Dec said 17 areas in S Kordofan retaken from rebels. 2 UNAMID peacekeepers killed 29 Dec in S Darfur. Govt expressed concern over S Sudan violence including impact of oil flow disruption on Sudan economy, welcomed S Sudan President Kiir’s acceptance of IGAD mediation.

Africa

Sudan

Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) 7 Nov began tour of Europe, met with French, German and UK representatives to discuss humanitarian situation in rebel-held areas and other issues; EU did not meet with SRF, citing SRF refusal to resume talks based on Doha Document for Peace in Darfur. Govt 19 Nov announced readiness to resume talks with SPLM-N. Govt 12 Nov announced new offensive against SRF in S Kordofan, Darfur and Blue Nile where clashes continue; UNOCHA 24 Nov said some 1,300 displaced since 12 Nov. JEM military leader Fidel Mohammed Rahoma reportedly killed in offensive against army facilities in Abu Zabad 17 Nov. Fighting between Salamat, Misseriya and Ta’aisha tribes along Sudan-Chad-CAR border resumed, over 100 reportedly killed. 2 health workers killed 29 Nov in W Darfur.

Africa

Sudan

Protests against govt continued early-month despite use of tear gas to disperse demonstrators; 7 university professors arrested late-Oct in crackdown. Ghazi al-Attabani, former adviser to ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and ex-majority leader in parliament, 26 Oct announced defection from NCP, intention to form new party. President Bashir 28 Oct referred to “reform and change” at opening of new parliamentary session. Bashir 22 Oct met with S Sudan President Kiir in Juba to discuss bilateral issues including Abyei dispute; some concessions but no overall breakthrough. AU High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) mandate extended to Dec 2014 and to whole Horn of Africa. AUHIP-proposed referendum on Abyei slated for Oct unilaterally undertaken by local Ngok Dinka community despite warnings from AU. AU 27 Oct condemned Sudan govt for preventing planned AU visit to Abyei. Govt 31 Oct condemned renewed U.S. sanctions.

Africa

Sudan

Thousands protested throughout country late-Sept against govt decision to remove fuel subsidies, called for fall of regime. Protests turned deadly, with over 200 reportedly killed and some 700 arrested; ruling National Congress Party’s (NCP) HQ in Omduran set on fire 24 Sept. NCP accused opposition parties and Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) of inciting protests. Opposition National Consensus Forces formed umbrella group with professional unions, civil society and youth organisations to oppose crackdown; reformists within ruling NCP, including former presidential adviser Ghazi Salahuddin and former army general Mohammed Ibrahim, also reportedly criticised violent govt action. Khartoum reiterated opposition to AU proposal for Oct Abyei referendum. Newly-appointed U.S. Special Envoy Donald Booth met with Sudanese co-chair of Abyei Oversight Committee, al-Khair al-Fahim; FM Ahmed Ali Karti said Booth not welcome to mediate Abyei dispute, Khartoum would only allow AU mediation. Power struggle between NCP-appointed North Darfur governor Oman Kibir and traditional leader of Mahamid Arab tribe and Janjaweed militia leader Musa Hilal intensified. Military operations against SRF in South Kordofan continued.

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