President Bashir 8 Feb officially accepted final results of Southern Sudan Referendum with 98.83% in favour of independent state in region. At least 10 killed 27 Feb in fighting between Misseriya Arab nomads from North and pro-Southern Dinka Ngok in Abyei area; clashes come as talks stepped up between North and South to address post-referendum issues, with commitment to find solution to Abyei status before end March. In West Darfur Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) 25 Feb targeted Sudan Liberation Movement rebel positions in Jebel Marra sparking 2 days’ clashes; 25 SLM, 2 SAF reported killed. UN-AU peacekeeping mission in Darfur (UNAMID) 16 Feb announced strategy of increased patrols, quick reaction force to improve civilian protection during heightened insecurity as rebels continue to clash with govt troops. Darfuri authorities 14 Feb expelled NGO Médecins du Monde accusing them of supporting rebel Sudan Liberation Movement. Meanwhile media 4 Feb reported claims that France, U.S. agreed during Jan AU summit to consider backing deferral of International Criminal Court indictment against Bashir. Security forces broke up series of demonstrations against rising prices and rights abuses in Khartoum. Senior ruling National Congress Party (NCP) official 21 Feb claimed Bashir will not stand at next election as part of reform package aimed at democratising country; opposition said NCP trying to pre-empt mass protests fearing contagion from uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt.

Darfur saw increased govt confrontation with rebel groups: Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) 20 Jan clashed with rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) on Menawashi-Kidnir road in S Darfur following rebel ambush; 13 rebels, 8 SAF killed. JEM, SLA statement 25 Jan claimed rebels shot down helicopter gunship, many more killed during clashes with SAF near Al Fasher, N Darfur. UN peacekeeping mission UNAMID confirmed SAF 23 Jan arrested 37 during raid of El Fasher Zam Zam IDP camp; said raid violated terms of agreement requiring prior notification to UNAMID of govt action in camps. Former South African President Mbeki, chair of AU High Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), 18 Jan called for all rebel groups to join political process on ground. Abyei self-determination referendum to join either North or South did not take place as scheduled 9 Jan due to disagreement over voter eligibility. Unresolved future status of Abyei, including border demarcation, resource-sharing, citizenship issues led to localised deadly clashes 7-9 Jan between rival ethnic Misseriya Arab nomads from North and pro-Southern Dinka Ngok. UN SRSG said although agreement reached 14 Jan succeeded in containing violence, absence of final Abyei settlement risks further trouble. Meanwhile violent suppression of anti-govt protests in Khartoum and elsewhere 29 Jan. Demonstrations in protest at crackdown on political, civic freedoms and rising living costs; commentators say unrest linked to Egypt protests.

Extended voter registration period ended 8 Dec with authorities reporting over 3.2 million registered for 9 Jan South Sudan self-determination referendum; UN, international observers 16 Dec commended process despite “a few weaknesses”. South Sudan Referendum Commission 20 Dec said notification from Constitutional Court regarding two legal challenges raising fears of delay. In speech broadcast live on state television, President Bashir 28 Dec pledged support to south’s secession if 9 Jan vote is free and fair. UN and others 9 Dec launched early warning atrocity prevention project through satellite imagery monitoring of referendum. Preparation for simultaneous Abyei self-determination vote irretrievably behind schedule as parties to Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and ruling National Congress Party (NCP), failed to break stalemate over terms of Abyei vote. AU High Level Implementation Panel 6, 8 and 18 Dec failed to facilitate NCP-SPLM breakthrough on post-referendum arrangements. Situation in Darfur deteriorated as Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) 10, 11 Dec attacked Khor Abeche village, S Darfur. Estimated 12,000 fled fighting 17 Dec in same location between SAF and rebel Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM); SAF 24 Dec killed 40 Justice and Equality Movement, SLM rebels. Meanwhile, joint ceasefire commission confirmed air attacks took place 6, 8, 9 Dec in Western Bahr al-Ghazal state bordering S Darfur. Bashir 29 Dec said will withdraw from Doha peace talks if no deal reached with Liberation and Justice Movement rebels by 30 Dec; UN-AU mediator to Darfur Djibril Bassole said ultimatum threatened whole process; mediators handed compromise proposals to govt 1 Jan.

Month saw progress on preparations for Jan S Sudan self-determination referendum but continued deadlock between North and South over key issues. Voter registration for referendum commenced 15 Nov at 2,700 centres in S Sudan, 165 in N Sudan and 8 diaspora countries. High turnout in South prompted 26 Nov official announcement extending registration process by one week; authorities said extension would not delay referendum. Low turnout in North led ruling National Congress Party (NCP) to accuse Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) of campaigning to dissuade pro-unity southerners resident in north from registering; NCP 21 Nov made formal complaint to Southern Sudan Referendum Commission, threatened to reject referendum results if trend continued. In AU-led 13 Nov talks and 23-24 Nov negotiation under Intergovernmental Authority on Development auspices, the two parties failed to reach agreement on key issues including resource-sharing, border demarcation, citizenship and Abyei status. SPLAsaid 10 killed, 6 injured during SAF helicopter gunship attacks 13, 24 Nov on SPLA positions in Northern Bahr al-Ghazal state bordering Darfur; claimed Khartoum strategy to disrupt referendum process. SAF denied intentional targeting of SPLA; claimed “error” during SAF operations against Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) rebels who had withdrawn from Darfur to S Sudan; SAF further alleged JEM receiving SPLA assistance. UNAMID SRSG Ibrahim Gambari warned of increased violence ahead of referendum as reports of major movement of SAF to Darfur region threatened further military offensives.

Month dominated by high level visits ahead of 9 Jan 2011 referenda on South Sudan and Abyei. Following 10-15 Oct visit, high-level UN panel expressed concern over lack of progress in preparation for vote and antagonism between National Congress Party (NCP), Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). Both sides accuse each other of troop build-up in N-S border areas; South Sudan President Salva Kiir requested UN-administered buffer zone. Following col- lapse of 9-day talks between SPLM and NCP in Addis Ababa, northern leaders 14 Oct declared 9 Jan Abyei vote impossible; defence minister Abdel Rahim Hussein also warned of South referendum delays. SPLM reiterated delays unacceptable, violate Comprehensive Peace Agreement. 15-nation UNSC delegation visiting 8-15 Oct said timely referenda still possible but requires “genuine” political will; U.S. President Obama 30 Oct pressed former South African President Mbeki, leading NCP-SPLM compromise talks, for on-time referenda. Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC) released timetable for polls including 14-30 Nov voter registration, 9 Jan vote. President Bashir, VPs Salva Kiir and Ali Osman Taha 26 Oct agreed to develop common vision on future N-S relations regardless of referendum outcome. IGAD Summit to discuss referenda postponed to 6 Nov, moved from Nairobi to Addis Ababa (see Kenya). Rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) spokesman Ahmed Hussein Adam 24 Oct said group ready to re-start discussions with international mediators in Doha following breakdown of Feb accord with Khartoum; 28 Oct said that 180 govt army soldiers have defected to join rebel group.

Month dominated by increased U.S. diplomatic engagement ahead of Jan 2011 S Sudan self-determination referendum and continued fighting in Darfur. U.S. Sec State Clinton 8 Sept announced Washington to step up diplomatic efforts to prepare Sudan to peacefully accept “inevitable” secession following Jan vote; described situation as “ticking time-bomb”. UNSG Ban 21 Sept announced appointment of 3 panel members to monitor S Sudan and Abeyi Area referenda. Attacks by unidentified men early Sept at Hamidiya IDP camp, W Darfur and Tabarat village N Darfur resulted in more than 50 killed. SLA claim govt war planes bombed villages in Jebel Marra area, South Darfur 22-23 Sept killing 18 people. UN-AU-Doha committee 21 Sept produced preliminary draft document aimed at ending Darfur conflict; document to form basis of 29 Sept Doha negotiations between govt and rebel Liberation and Justice Movement. 7 LRA attacks reported during first week of Sept; religious leaders from LRA-affected areas in DRC, CAR, S Sudan, Uganda met 8-10 Sept in Yambio to discuss LRA; signed joint statement criticising international community’s failure to develop plan to tackle regional threat, called on UN to provide peacekeepers with capacity to deploy quickly, insisted negotiated settlement preferred sustainable solution.

Tensions persisted following late July violent confrontations in Darfur IDP camps between supporters of opposing groups in Doha peace talks; 8 dead, dozens injured, thousands sought refuge in UNAMID base. In response to UN refusal to hand over 6 IDPs accused of instigating violence, govt from 2 Aug blocked humanitarian access to main Kalma camp in south Darfur, housing 90,000 IDPs. President Bashir 7 Aug threatened to expel UNAMID if it hindered work of authorities. Breakthrough in impasse on South Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC) as SPLM 23 Aug said it would accept appointment of northerner as secretary-general of commission on condition deputy is from the south; move breaks deadlock over which commission head Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil had threatened to resign 15 Aug. During South Sudan visit U.S. Special Envoy Scott Gration 21 Aug pledged U.S. commitment to support “credible” on-schedule referendum. Pressure group “Abyei Referendum Forum” 18 Aug called for international intervention to break deadlock over formation of commission to supervise Abyei referendum. President Bashir 27 Aug attended promulgation of new Kenyan constitution, signalling Nairobi’s compliance with AU’s July instruction not to apprehend ICC-indicted Bashir (see Kenya).

ICC 12 July issued second arrest warrant for President Bashir including charges of genocide in Darfur; AU Chair Jean Ping 16 July criticised ICC action as “counterproductive”, Arab League rejected charge. Bashir arrived in Chad for official visit 20 July (see Chad). 19-27 July AU Summit issued communiqué rejecting ICC indictment of Bashir. Renewed fighting in Darfur between govt forces and JEM commenced 13 July; govt claimed 300 rebels and at least 70 SAF killed during 5-day period. Bashir 19 July rejected Govt of South Sudan (GoSS) President Salva Kiir’s initiative to mediate with SLA and JEM who remain outside Qatar peace talks. In South, concern over referendum preparations highlighted 14 July in joint 26-member NGO report calling on AU to urgently address “alarming” lack of readiness; Human Rights Watch report warned of “widespread abuses” ahead of referendum. UNSC 30 July unanimously renewed UNAMID mandate until 31 July 2011; Sudanese officials 31 July claimed UN peacekeepers in Darfur now required to inform Khartoum of all movement, UNAMID spokesman said unaware of any such official request.

Amid ongoing insecurity in South and Darfur, President Bashir 15 June announced coalition cabinet following Apr elections: SPLM to control 9 of 35 ministries including oil. Bashir 5 June warned southern secession could be “explosive”, stressed would work with SPLM for unity ahead of Jan 2011 independence referendum. UNSC 14 June called for all parties to speed up referendum preparations. NCP, SPLM 23 June signed MoU outlining framework for forthcoming negotiations on post-referendum arrangements; further talks to begin 5 July in Khartoum. Parliament 28 June established referendum commission after several months delay. South Sudan govt 21 June announced new expanded cabinet, including new ministry for CPA implementation. In South, continued reports of clashes between South Sudan army and fighters loyal to mutinous general and failed Jonglei gubernatorial candidate George Athor. Darfur peace talks resumed in Qatar 5 June but without main JEM rebel group amid recent surge in fighting between army and rebels: 50 reported killed in late month fighting. 41 reportedly killed early month, 50 killed 18 June in tribal clashes in South Darfur; UNAMID said rival tribes signed peace deal 28 June. 3 UNAMID peacekeepers killed in western Darfur 21 June.

Security deteriorated in South and Darfur following last month’s flawed elections. Carter Center 10 May reported April polls were “chaotic, non-transparent and vulnerable to political manipulation”. UNSG Ban 5 May noted failure to include “large groups of Darfurians”. SPLM 8 May said NCP-led govt arming militias ahead of 2011 referendum on southern independence. President Bashir 30 May dissolved govt ahead of forming new cabinet. Failed Jonglei gubernatorial candidate George Athor 3 May said he had taken command of group of mutinous soldiers, called for removal of victorious SPLM candidate citing fraud; Athor said 50 Southern soldiers killed in clashes 7 May, 83 killed 12 May; further clashes reported 14 May. 26 killed in 5 Apr tribal clashes over livestock in Warrap (South). Govt said 100 JEM Darfuri rebels killed when army seized Jebel Moon stronghold 15 May; JEM denied reports. Followed JEM’s 3 May suspension of peace talks with govt citing ongoing army attacks. Chad 19 May refused entry to JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim (see Chad). ICC 26 May referred Sudan to UNSC for failure to arrest 2 suspected Darfur war criminals. 2 UNAMID peacekeepers killed 7 May in southern Darfur.