CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Africa

Sudan

1st multiparty elections since 1986 began 11 Apr amid widespread confusion: SPLM late March, early Apr announced boycott of national presidency race, parliamentary polls in most of North (including Darfur), citing govt campaign restrictions, flawed registration. Many other opposition parties also boycotted. Reports of widespread irregularities, alleged rigging and sporadic violence. National Election Commission (NEC) 13 Apr announced 2-day extension of voting till 15 Apr, said pleased with overall turnout. Presidential results released 26 Apr: President Bashir re-elected with 68% of vote; South Sudan President Kiir re-elected with 93%. Ruling NCP party won gubernatorial seats in all northern states except Blue Nile; SPLM candidates won 9 of 10 gubernatorial seats in South. NCP said results sent message Bashir “legal” and “representative”. SPLM 22 Apr promised to work with Bashir’s govt, despite irregularities, in order to “avoid war”. Carter Center, EU said elections fell short of “international standards” but still a significant step. UNSG Ban 27 Apr noted “reported irregularities”, boycotts but also lack of major violence, welcomed efforts by “ruling parties” to engage opposition. Failed gubernatorial candidate Gen. George Athor denied ordering 30 Apr attack on Jonglei army base that left 8 dead. 58 reported killed in 23 Apr clashes between Darfuri nomads and South Sudan Army. MSDP rebel group 14 Apr claimed responsibility for 11 Apr abduction of 4 UNAMID peacekeepers in Darfur; released late month. UNSC 29 Apr extended UNMIS mandate till Apr 2011, tasked it with “lead role” in assisting 2011 referendum preparations.

Africa

Sudan

Political situation tense ahead of 11-13 April polls amid fears of rigging, heightened instability. SPLM candidate for national presidency Yassir Arman 31 March withdrew from race, saying free and fair elections in Darfur “impossible”, overall process“rigged”; SPLM also withdrew from parliamentary poll in Darfur. Main opposition parties boycotted presidential poll 1 April; considering boycotts of parliamentary, local polls. President Bashir cancelled 30 March meeting with South Sudan President Kiir, threatened to delay 2011 southern referendum if elections postponed. Carter Center election monitors 18 March suggested postponing elections for up to 10 days as preparations “at risk on multiple fronts”; National Election Commission (NEC) said elections would proceed as planned. Opposition, civil society groups called for NEC to lift campaign restrictions, 18 March claimed increased risk of fraud after govt company won contract to print ballots. Lam Akol, sole challenger to Kiir for South Sudan presidency, launched campaign 13 March. Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) 9 March urged parties to establish official referendum commission. At least 13 killed in clashes between South Sudan army, northern nomads 19 March. Govt 8 March said army had taken control of Jebel Marra plateau in Darfur after fresh clashes with Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) rebels. Govt 18 March signed peace deal with Darfur rebel group Liberation and Justice Movement (LJM). JEM Darfur rebels earlier threatened to withdraw from Feb peace agreement if Khartoum pursued parallel deals.

Africa

Sudan

North-south tensions remained high as South’s SPLM party 1 Feb refused to withdraw candidate for national presidency in face of strong appeals from NCP party. Progress in talks on disputed census: parties 26 Feb announced agreement to increase seats for southern parties in national assembly by 40 (26%) following SPLM objections census under-represented south. NCP minister Biong 22 Feb also announced census recount for S Kordofan. Campaigning by political parties started, with President Bashir 13 Feb holding major rally in Khartoum condemning ICC and pledging to support southern “brothers” in event of secession. Chadian President Déby and Bashir following 7-8 Feb meetings in Khartoum announced new deal to end support for proxy rebel groups and combat insecurity along border. Bashir 20 Feb announced new agreement with Darfur rebel group JEM; other rebel groups rejected. UN reported between 140-400 killed in serious upsurge in clashes between army and SLA-Abdel Wahid in Darfur’s Jabel Marra region late month; army denied. Across South, at least 52 killed over month in series of clashes between rival ethnic groups and between military and armed civilians. ICC appeals court 3 Feb ruled legal basis used by pre-trial judges to reject genocide charge against Bashir was wrong, opening door to genocide charges.

Africa

Sudan

10-day candidate nomination period started 12 Jan ahead of 11 April combined polls. For presidential polls: President Bashir 11 Jan resigned position of military commander-in-chief and 12 Jan confirmed candidacy for NCP party; SPLM nominated party deputy Yassir Arman, leaving SPLM leader Salva Kiir open to contest Southern presidency. Former PM Sadiq al-Mahdi (overthrown by Bashir’s coup), opposition Umma National Party, announced candidacy 26 Jan. Senior NCP aide early month said gaps in 29 Dec referendum law raised risks of North-South confl Bashir during 19 Jan speech said NCP favoured unity but would support succession if approved. Darfur peace talks resumed in Doha 24 Jan but with no direct negotiations between govt/rebel parties by end month. Darfur rebel group SLA mid-month said govt had launched series of assaults on rebel positions in and around Jebel Marra region early month; SLA had struck back. Violence surged again in the South: 17 reportedly killed early month when armed civilians resisted official disarmament drive; at least 154 killed in separate inter-tribal clashes in remote Tonj region and Jonglei State. AU Commission Chair Jean Ping 28 Jan warned southern independence vote posed “catastrophic” risks for Sudan’s stability and threatened to spark further independence claims. Ashraf Qazi 18 Jan stepped down from post of UN Special Envoy to Sudan/UNMIS head; replaced by Eritrean diplomat Haile Menkerios 31 Jan.

Africa

Sudan

Tensions between North-South partners surged early month, easing 13 Dec with new agreement on rules governing 2011 South Sudan and Abyei referenda. All Political Parties’ Conference parties (group of 20 opposition parties and SPLM) rallied in Khartoum 7 Dec calling for legal reforms to ease political restrictions ahead of April 2010 polls and facilitate referenda; police cracked down with tear gas, beatings, arrests; leading SPLM figures including Sec-General Pagan Amom briefly detained. NCP/SPLM held 3-day crisis talks from 10 Dec, 13 Dec announced breakthrough deal covering terms of S Sudan referendum bill (succession by simple majority; 60% turnout), criteria for voter eligibility in Abyei referendum, implementation of popular consultation bill on 2 border states; all 3 bills tabled 15 Dec and referendum bill passed 29 Dec. Controversial National Security bill passed by parliament 20 Dec despite opposition protests. Electoral commission reported at least 75% eligible voters had registered at completion of voter registration period 7 Dec. Carter Center described figure as encouraging, stressed serious problems including uneven participation, notably in Darfur. 5 UNAMID soldiers killed in attacks by gunmen in North Darfur, 4-5 Dec.

Africa

Sudan

30-day voter registration period ahead of April 2010 elections started 1 Nov, 23 Nov extended to 7 Dec following strong calls from SPLM for extension due to low registration figures, lack of public information, poor preparations by NCPdominated govt; party also condemned exclusion of 9 regional countries from diaspora vote. Carter Centre, officially observing electoral process, expressed concern over govt restrictions on its staff’s movement, said lack of civic information preventing millions registering. SPLM maintained boycott of parliament; talks with NCP over month on referendum bill failed to break political deadlock. U.S. State Dept following 16-23 Nov visit to Sudan by special envoy Gration announced concerns over “chances for conducting elections and referenda” without greater political will to resolve outstanding CPA issues. Darfur peace talks slated to resume 16 Nov in Doha postponed again as rebel group JEM rejected participation over lack of rebel unity. 6 Nov report by UN Panel of Experts documented evidence of Darfur arms embargo violations by rebel groups and Khartoum. In South: at least 8 killed 1 Nov in tribal clashes near Malakal; agriculture minister injured, 5 others killed in 15 Nov attack on govt convoy; some 47 killed in cattle raids in Lakes State 16 Nov. OCHA reported over 220 killed and 157 abducted in attacks by suspected LRA rebels in southwest over 2009. Tensions between Chad and Sudan again rose as capitals exchanged accusations of delaying progress on steps to normalise relations agreed in Oct.

Africa

Sudan

U.S. Envoy Gration arrived in Juba 9 Sept for further talks between SPLM and NCP delegations to build on “roadmap” agreed in Aug, but parties failed to make progress on 2 most contentious election issues of census results and rules governing 2011 secession referendum. Govt of South Sudan (GoSS) stepped up disarmament drive in and around Juba ahead of Gration’s visit. At least 20 killed in reportedly heavy fighting around Korma, North Darfur, between govt troops and SLA-al Nur faction after days of military build up. President Bashir followed with late month call on Darfur rebel groups to join talks, scheduled to reopen Oct. 1 UNAMID peacekeeper killed, 2 wounded in 29 Sept attack on convoy. Over 100 killed in tribal clashes in south’s Jonglei State late month, bringing death toll from southern tribal fighting since Jan to over 2,000; aid groups report women and children targeted. GoSS 23 Sept announced hundreds of troops deployed to secure region. SPLM continues to accuse NCP of distributing arms to destabilise south. Vicious attacks by LRA rebels on southern villages continued, with UN reporting 7 raids over month. Speculation over NCP internal tensions following President Bashir’s mid-Aug removal of General Salah Mohammed Abdalla (Gosh) from powerful post as director of intelligence and security.

Africa

Sudan

Delegations from south’s SPLM and north’s NCP, meeting under mediation of U.S. envoy Gration, 19 Aug signed new “action plan” for implementing 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), but parties failed to make progress on key issues of disputed census and 2011 referendum. SPLM officials continued to accuse Khartoum of destabilising south by arming civilians. Further deadly attacks between communities in south’s Jongeli State left 185 dead early month. UN reported at least 180 killed in south amid recent spike in attacks and abductions by suspected LRA rebels, causing temporary suspensions of aid operations. Gration 21 Aug announced separate progress in Darfur peace talks in Addis Ababa, with agreement from 4 rebel groups to work as united front and commit to peace “roadmap”; key player JEM remains outside of talks. Officials from Sudan, Egypt, Libya and Gration convened in Cairo 23 Aug to coordinate peace efforts including on Darfur; Qatari representatives notably absent. UNAMID General Martin Agwai late month said that despite persistence of localized disputes, war in Darfur effectively over; activists condemned statements and wider U.S. policy of engaging Khartoum.

Africa

Sudan

Abyei Tribunal based in the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) 22 July delivered decision on disputed Abyei region at north-south border: in compromise verdict – welcomed by both NCP and SPLM – PCA shifted border to give north access to region’s richest oil field; assigned Ngok Dinka ethnic group, expected to vote in 2011 referendum, control over remaining area. Following its 24 June-3 July summit in Libya, AU announced it would not cooperate with ICC over President Bashir’s arrest. ICC Chief Prosecutor Ocampo 7 July lodged appeal with Court to expand Bashir’s charges to include genocide. Egypt hosted meetings with President Bashir and 6 Darfuri rebel groups early month for talks on Darfur peace process. JEM, absent from Cairo talks, 3 July signed “declaration of principles” with opposition Umma party in potential new political alliance, agreed not to accept census results. Opposition parties argued current Govt of National Unity illegitimate beyond 10 July 2009, demanded transitional national govt. Chad 16 July conducted further air strikes in Darfur, prompting Sudan to urge UNSC action; reports of retaliatory attacks by Khartoum in Darfur region 2 days later. UNSG Ban expressed “grave concern” over both incidents.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.