North/South tensions continued to escalate. Former FM Lam Akol early month split from South’s ruling SPLM to form new party, SPLM-Democratic Change. SPLM leadership accused Khartoum of manipulating Southern politics, distributing arms; NCP accused SPLM of training JEM fighters, threatened to ban SPLM activities in North unless GoSS “open up” South to NCP. GoSS leader Salva Kiir 18 June announced military preparing for possible war in 2011. Electoral commission 30 June announced postponement of presidential elections from Feb to April 2010 amid continuing dispute over census results for South. At CPA conference in Washington 23- 24 June, U.S. Sudan envoy Gration and Northern delegation claimed solid progress on CPA implementation talks, including NCP agreement to accept “final and binding” arbitration ruling in July on Abyei; SPLM said no progress made. Some 40 S Sudanese soldiers and civilians killed in 12 June ambush by Jikany Nuer on UN aid boats in Upper Nile State. In Darfur: UN humanitarian chief Holmes announced Khartoum authorized return of 4 international aid agencies under modified names. Gration 17 June said Sudan no longer engaged in “coordinated genocide” in Darfur. Doha peace talks between govt and JEM rebels adjourned for 2 months mid-June, with sides trading accusations of military aggression.

Increasingly open strains between North-South governing partners, while tensions with N’djamena increased sharply following Chadian incursions in pursuit of rebels on Sudanese soil (see Chad). 150 SPLM and opposition MPs walked out of late-month parliamentary debate on repressive press bill introduced by dominant NCP. President of South Sudan Salva Kiir (SPLM) rejected legitimacy of Apr-May national census. Darfur peace talks between govt, JEM resumed in Doha 7 May after March-Apr hiatus. Planned $3m  Darfur  peace  conference  organised  by  Mo  Ibrahim involving 300 civil society representatives cancelled 10 May after delegates denied exit visas by Khartoum. In Darfur, UN USG Holmes during early-month visit reported aid effort holding, but deterioration imminent. Khartoum 8 May said new or renamed aid agencies welcome, existing operations could expand. Insecurity across Darfur continued: govt late-month launched air strikes on N Darfur’s Umm Baru town, following earlier clashes between JEM and SLM-Minni Minawi; JEM 17 May attacked military sites in Karnoi area. Govt of South Sudan announced crackdown on armed cattle raiding, as further 49 killed in raids in Upper Nile state. In South Kordofan: 167 members of 2 Arab tribes and 75 police killed in severe late month clashes near Darfur border. Commander of URF rebels Abu Garda surrendered to The Hague to face ICC war crimes charges over 2007 attack on AMIS peacekeepers. 2 killed, several villages ransacked and hundreds displaced in attacks by suspected LRA rebels in S Sudan’s Nzara county on 17 May.

President Bashir continued diplomatic drive to garner support in wake of March ICC indictment with visit to Ethiopia 21-22 Apr. Sudanese delegation met with UK and French FMs in Paris late month but with no progress on indictment stand-off. U.S. envoy Gration and U.S. Senator Kerry travelled to Sudan 2 Apr and 15 Apr, reportedly securing agreement for return of small number of aid organisations after March expulsions and signalling easing in U.S.-Khartoum relations. In Darfur, humanitarian situation stable but risks of deterioration high. AU delegation led by Thabo Mbeki arrived in region 3 Apr. 21 members of Darfur’s JEM rebels sentenced to death by Khartoum court for treason. In surprise move, electoral commission announced national and regional elections (incl. for South Sudan) for Feb 2010, requiring 7-month extension of Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) deadline. Signs of north/south tension, with SPLM publicly accusing NCP of dragging feet on CPA, mishandling ICC; NCP-hosted conference in Kenana, White Nile State, 1-3 Apr ended with condemnation of administrative, security deterioration in south. 177 confirmed dead, likely many more, in heavily armed raids by rival Lou Nuer and Merle ethnic groups in the south’s Jonglei state in late March and 20-21 Apr, marking severe increase in scale of cattle raiding violence. UNSC renewed UNMIS mandate to Apr 2010.

Khartoum in response to 4 March decision by ICC pre-trial chamber to issue arrest warrant for President Bashir, for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur (excl. genocide), expelled 13 international aid groups (along with 3 national groups); UN warned of rapid deterioration in conditions and security within Darfur IDP camps. Reports indictment causing tensions at senior level of Bashir’s National Congress Party. Govt moved to rally public support for president, while Bashir undertook defiant visits to Eritrea, Egypt, Qatar late month (none party to ICC). Pro-ICC sentiment brutally repressed: university protests in Delinj (S Kordofan) and Khartoum met with open fire, beatings, arrests. PNC opposition leader Al-Turabi released 9 March from 2-month detention. JEM 20 March suspended participation in Qatar peace talks until humanitarian ban lifted. UNSC meetings 6, 20 March failed to adopt resolution on response to ICC; Arab League and Africa Union (AU) urged UNSC to authorise deferral. AU late month announced conference for June to discuss indictment and members’ possible withdrawal from ICC. Rtrd General Scott Gration appointed new U.S. Sudan envoy.

Events dominated by long-awaited announcement of ICC arrest warrant for President Bashir and debate over potential to increase insecurity but also prospects for long-term peace; ICC 23 Feb announced decision to be issued 4 March. As unofficial reports indicated positive decision by Pre-Trial chamber judges on Prosecutor’s July request for war crimes, crimes against humanity, AU- Arab League 12 Feb lobbied UNSC for Article 16 deferral of indictment; U.S., UK, French opposed. Qatar peace talks opened 10 Feb between JEM, govt – 1st since 2007. Attacks ongoing during negotiations, and talks reportedly stalled 14 Feb over rebel demands for confidence-building measures - prisoner exchange, cessation of attacks on IDPs. Measures included in 17 Feb “Declaration of intent”, but no ceasefire, and deal dismissed by other rebel groups. Parties remaining in Doha to put together framework ceasefire agreement before actual peace talks. Following deal, JEM 18 Feb accused govt of air, ground attacks against 2 positions in Jebel Marra - denied by army. Govt 4 Feb announced Muhajariya taken from rebels after weeks of fighting and mounting UN fears over conditions for civilians; rebels said had voluntarily evacuated. 12 Feb said authorities preventing aid agencies getting supplies to over 100,000 Darfuri civilians; 18 Feb said full UNAMID deployment postponed again to June. Govt 15 Feb announced beginning of investigations into alleged Darfur rights abuses in 2003-04. SPLM/A, govt 15 Feb submitted 2nd round of arguments to Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on Abyei Boundaries Commission dispute. Some 50 killed, 100 wounded in fresh clashes 24 Feb between SPLM and southern militia in southern town Malakal.

Imminent ICC judges’ decision on whether to issue arrest warrant for President Bashir dominating political dynamics, fuelling fears for continued deterioration of security situation amid threats of possible Darfur rebel attacks against cities, oil installations. As political options for dealing with ICC indictment under debate, hopes remain for positive reaction from political forces in favour of ICC cooperation. Month saw escalation of Darfur inter-tribal fighting, govt aerial bombing of rebel-held areas, clashes between rebel groups. Govt early Jan bombed JEM positions in North Darfur, 13, 14 Jan bombed rebel positions in southern Darfur; govt troops 22 Jan clashed with Darfur rebels. Violence intensified 15 Jan between SLM-Minni Minawi (MM) and JEM forces around SLM stronghold Muhajirya. Clashes between militias and Joint Integrated Units in Southern Kordofan 13 Jan killed at least 16. With ICC judges’ decision on Bashir arrest warrant expected within weeks, JEM reportedly planning attacks when decision announced. Sudanese authorities 14 Jan arrested Popular Congress Party leader al-Turabi after he urged Bashir to surrender to ICC. Progress stalled on Qatari initiative to bring rebel groups, govt to peace talks; rebel groups refusing to participate or still considering. Doubts mounting over whether fair elections will take place mid-2009, despite NCP and SPLM assurances. Govt 29 Jan accused Chad of helping JEM.

Tensions running high ahead of imminent decision by ICC judges on President Bashir arrest warrant request for genocide, war crimes; fears indictment may lead to unravelling of Darfur peace initiative, undermine CPA implementation. ICC Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo 3 Dec briefed UN on likely Jan. decision on warrant. Despite some figures in NCP urging govt to cooperate with ICC, Bashir 17 Dec said no suspects to be handed over. Qatari peace initiative continued to stall despite govt support: JEM delegation in Qatar 1 Dec to discuss, but undecided whether to participate; SLA leader al-Nur 2 Dec repeated vow to boycott talks unless govt militias disarmed, attacks end; SLM 14 Dec rejected initiative. Several killed in mid-month inter-ethnic clashes in Darfur. UN official 3 Dec accused JEM of recruiting refugees in eastern Chad; also expressed concern about spread of weapons, politicisation of refugee camps. Govt mid-Dec reported JEM build-up, imminent attacks near western border targeting major cities in Sudan; denied by JEM. Several hundred Ethiopian UNAMID troops arrived in Darfur 16-19 Dec. Govt 7 Dec said troops deployed in South Kordofan against suspected rebel attack, allegedly JEM. In move to ease tensions, govt 14 Dec agreed to withdraw troops from Abyei after 12 Dec dispute between army and police caused thousands to flee. Written arguments presented 18 Dec by govt, SPLM to Abyei Arbitration Tribunal, agreed to in June 2008.

Ahead of proposed Qatar peace conference, and in response to Sudan People’s Initiative, President Bashir 12 Nov announced unconditional govt ceasefire in Darfur and militia disarmament. Darfur rebel groups said govt insincere, no ceasefire before peace deal. Ceasefire soon broken, with govt and rebels blaming each other; incidents included 2 mid-Nov govt aerial attacks reported by rebels, UN; 30 rebel fighters killed in 20 Nov insurgent attack; 21-22 Nov govt air strikes in south Darfur confirmed by UN. Govt 14 Nov confirmed purchase of 12 fighter jets from Russia. 500-strong Egyptian UNAMID battalion arrived in Darfur mid-Nov; UNAMID 25 Nov again cited troop, equipment shortages. Ruling NCP 9 Nov turned down possibility of bilateral talks with JEM in favour of inclusive peace agreement; JEM 16 Nov confirmed plans to send delegation to Qatari initiative. ICC prosecutor 20 Nov presented case for sealed indictment of 3 Darfur rebel commanders accused of Sept 2007 Haskanita attack on peacekeepers; 17 Nov provided over 700 pages additional info to Pre-Trial Chamber I judges on application for Bashir indictment. Following 17 Nov parliament approval Bashir 25 Nov appointed National Electoral Commission, needed for 2009 general elections. NCP, SPLM in late Nov agreement on press, land commission, human rights laws. FM 1 Nov said disgruntled pro-govt militia responsible for Oct kidnapping and murder of Chinese oil workers. 3 human rights activists detained 24 Nov in Khartoum; subsequently released. Over 150 journalists on 24-hr hunger strike 4 Nov to protest govt censorship; over 60 arrested 17 Nov for protesting, later released.

Govt 16 Oct announced new “Sudan Peace Initiative” for Darfur; rebel groups, opposition parties boycotted. JEM 8 Oct still undecided on participation in Qatar peace talks, insisted on UN and AU involvement, said no ceasefire prior to peace deal. SLM and Sudan National Liberation Movement (SNLM) 15 Oct announced reunification emphasising Darfuri rebel unity. UN 18 Oct said Sept violence displaced 50,000 in northern Darfur. 2 UNAMID peacekeepers killed 6 and 30 Oct; UNSG Ban said further UNAMID deployment delayed due to security situation. ICC pre-trial chamber held first meeting with ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo 1 Oct on application for President Bashir arrest warrant; later asked Moreno- Ocampo for additional information by 17 Nov. Sudanese official 12 Oct said militia commander Ali Kushayb, wanted by ICC, was in custody; domestic investigation completed but unclear whether would stand trial. Moreno-Ocampo 17 Oct announced imminent request for ICC indictment against Darfur rebel commanders for attacking AU peacekeepers. UNSG Ban 28 Oct called for more UNMIS peacekeepers for South Sudan. Fears that Khartoum and Govt of South Sudan (GoSS) rearming in violation of CPA, with Kenya and GoSS denying reports that arms on pirated Ukrainian ship (see Somalia) destined for GoSS via Kenya. 9 Chinese oil workers taken hostage 19 Oct in South Kordofan region; 5 killed, 2 missing, 2 escaped.

Continued fighting in Darfur, particularly in north, including govt aerial attacks on rebels. Govt denied attacks, UNAMID confirmed fighting. Rebels claimed 21 govt soldiers killed in 17 Sept battle. UNAMID reported 2 attacks on their aircraft due to rebel confusion with Sudanese army aircraft, now also painted white in condemned practice. ICC judges 19 Sept issued order for 1 Oct closed meeting with Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo on July request for President Bashir arrest warrant. France, UK indicated possible support for UNSC deferral of prosecution under Article 16 of Rome Statute if Khartoum changes policies, pursues Darfur peace; rebel SLM 25 Sept voiced opposition. AU 22 Sept reiterated support for UNSC deferral; said domestic courts should investigate crimes, Khartoum to involve AU/Arab League (AL) lawyers to give “required credibility”. AL Ministerial Council formed 9 Sept to resolve Darfur crisis, co-chaired by Qatar, AU, AL. Some Darfur rebels and opposition Umma leader dismissed initiative. UN 7 Sept threatened to suspend some Darfur humanitarian assistance after 3 Sept attack on WFP convoy, one of over 100 in 2008. NCP and former rebel SLM-Minawi 17 Sept discussed implementation of 2006 Darfur Peace Agreement, recent govt attacks against SLM-Minawi. At UN 26 Sept, Sudan elected head of “Group of 77” developing countries.