CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Sudan

Ruling NCP stance hardened against July International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor’s application for President Bashir arrest warrant. Bashir said 20 Aug will ask UNAMID peacekeepers to leave if ICC issues warrant. UNSC divided over invoking Art 16 of Rome Statute to defer investigation, as UN 19 Aug reported strengthened security measures in case of hostile reaction. Darfur rebel groups rejected new govt- SPLM agreed framework for Sudan People’s Initiative (SPI) to resolve Darfur conflict. Army launched new offensive: 26 Aug killed more than 30 in weapons hunt in southern Darfur IDP camp, drawing protest resignations from Darfur govt officials and condemnation from UNAMID. UN, activists urged review of some 50 death sentences for rebels accused of May attack on capital. NCP and SPLM agreed 8 Aug on composition of Abyei administration: Bashir appointed SPLM member as chief administrator, NCP member as deputy. UN peacekeeping mission reported 10 Aug north and south armies still not fully withdrawn from region, but joint forces operating. 4 days print- run of Sudan Tribune seized for criticising govt on North-South peace deal roll-out. Sudan and Chad agreed 1 Aug to restore bilateral relations. Some 70 killed in 20 Aug clashes between Rizeigat and Misseriya over water, land in southern Darfur; govt responded with rapid reconciliation mechanism. Swiss group 26 Aug reported buildup of troops, weapons in Nuba Mountains. Unidentified group hijacked passenger plane leaving Darfur 26 Aug, all but crew released in Libya 27 Aug.

Africa

Sudan

International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo 14 July applied for arrest warrant for Sudanese President Bashir on charges of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes – much-feared regime response so far restrained; progress on stalled Darfur peace process and CPA implementation possible as judges consider application. AU, Arab League, China warned of damage to peace process. Ruling NCP organised ICC protests. Bashir in rare Darfur visit 23 July, accompanied by U.S., UK officials, emphasised peace efforts – rebels reported subsequent army attacks. Plans for politically inclusive conference on Darfur reported 31 July. Retaliation fears prompted increased UN security, compounded by 17 July killing of UNAMID peacekeeper that followed 9 July attack killing 7 UNAMID. AU 21 July requested UNSC defer ICC prosecution; France, UK said too soon to consider. UNSC 31 July extended UNAMID 1 year, noted AU request; U.S. abstained from vote. Northern, southern armies withdrew end-July from disputed Abyei region following May clashes, allowing joint force deployment. Khartoum offer to resume diplomatic ties with Chad, cut after May rebel attack on capital, rejected: 8 JEM sentenced to death for involvement (see Chad). New election law signed 7 July: prospect of first free elections in 23 years in 2009; opposition and former rebels’ support tempered by concern over NCP advantage. Southern SPLM leader Salva Kiir 27 July announced would run for presidency. Sudan claimed Ethiopian soldiers killed 19 in 7 July attack on northern military camp; Ethiopia dismissed incident, blamed poorly demarcated border.

Africa

Sudan

“Road Map” agreed 8 June to end North-South clashes over contested oil town Abyei; joint integrated unit deployed 18 June as per CPA to help re-establish security and assist returning displaced. NCP and SPLM agreed 21 June to submit Abyei border dispute to Hague-based Permanent Court for Arbitration; 1 July reports suggest both sides’ troops failed to meet end-June withdrawal deadline. U.S. accused UN of failing to protect town; UN Envoy Ashraf Qazi rejected claims, saying not UN mandate, but UNSC requested investigation. Khartoum put 39 on trial 18 June for involvement in May JEM rebel attack on capital. EU leaders demanded Khartoum hand over ICC war crimes indictees; warned new sanctions. In 5 June report to UNSC, ICC Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo said evidence shows “organised campaign by Sudanese officials”, promised to present new case to judges in July. Chinese President Hu Jintao called on Sudan to do more for peace in Darfur, attempting to deflect criticism for ties. Khartoum banned U.S. companies from working with UN peacekeepers in Darfur. SLM-Unity rebels claimed killed some 160 soldiers in North Darfur ambush, promised extension of operations beyond region. Head of Médècins Sans Frontières in South Darfur expelled from region 26 June for refusing to participate in investigation into aid agency misconduct; UN warned of Darfur food crisis as seventh WFP driver killed in country since year-start. Burkina Faso FM Djibrill Bassole appointed joint AU/UN mediator at 30 June AU summit, replacing UN, AU Envoys Jan Eliasson and Salim Ahmed Salim.

Africa

Sudan

2 major assaults further strained North-South relations and fragile situation in Darfur. Heavy fighting began 14 May in oil-rich Abyei between Sudanese govt (GoS) and southern Sudan troops (SPLA): at least 21 killed, up to 100,000 displaced. SPLA/M withdrew from U.S. talks, claimed emboldening north; reportedly dismissed 30 May GoS proposal for North-South joint-administration of Abeyi as PR stunt; party convention 15 May re-elected leader Salva Kiir. 23 killed – including South Sudan defence minister, presidential adviser – in 2 May plane crash near Rumbek; Kiir cited engine failure. Darfur rebel group JEM attacked Khartoum 10-11 May in first attempt on capital for 30 years; 200 reportedly killed. JEM promised fresh attacks, claiming allies in security forces and universities. GoS crackdown followed: 300 arrested in 12 May Khartoum sweep – including opposition leader Al-Turabi, later released; diplomatic ties with Chad cut 11 May over JEM links. Smaller rebel group SLM-Unity 26 May joined JEM call for further attacks. GoS airstrikes on civilian targets in northern Darfur killing at least 13 reported 4 May; Khartoum blocking aid. UNAMID troops ambushed, disarmed by 60 unidentified gunmen West Darfur 21 May; Ugandan peacekeeper found shot dead in El-Fasher 28 May. UNSC due to meet President Bashir and Kiir to urge adherence to 2005 peace deal as part of 9-day mission to key Africa conflict zones, starting 1 June.

Africa

Sudan

Some 30 killed in 24 Apr violent North-South clashes in contested Abyei region between southern army (SPLA) and northern Misseriya, following early Apr reports of northern troop deployments to region. 95 killed in inter-tribal fighting in southern Lakes and Warrap states. Repeatedly delayed census, first since 1993, launched 22 Apr; seen as prerequisite to democratic elections 2009. Major army-JEM rebel clashes reported in Darfur 12 Apr, both sides claim inflicted heavy losses. Army allegedly bombed 2 villages 1 Apr, killing 1 child, Khartoum denies. AU, UN Envoys reported parties to confl agreed in mid-month consultations to discuss security improvements, but not ceasefires or new peace talks. Mission head said 30 Apr 1,600 troops to join AU-UN peacekeeping mission June; UNMIS mandate renewed same day. 2 WFP drivers killed 7 Apr in South Sudan, 1 in Darfur 21 Apr; agency announced 17 Apr regularity of attacks forced halving monthly rations in Darfur. UN humanitarian chief 22 Apr put 5-year Darfur conflict death toll as high as 300,000; Sudan rejected.

Africa

Sudan

Worst violence in Darfur in months as government launched major aerial bombardments and ground attacks on 3 towns in West Darfur 8 Feb: 200 reported killed, 10,000 fled to Chad. Airstrikes continued mid-month near Aro Sharow IDP camp, condemned by UNSG Ban Ki-moon 20 Feb. International Committee of the Red Cross employee killed during 8 Feb fighting. Signing of Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) 9 Feb on operating rules removed major barriers to deployment of UN-AU hybrid peacekeeping force. Sudanese army rejected appointment of UK officer as chief of staff to force commander 14 Feb. Renewed fire broke out mid-month in contested Abyei region with heightened tension as some Misseriya unilaterally declared own state. UN SRSG for Sudan Ashraf Qazi warned of Abyei risk in first briefing to UNSC 19 Feb, also stressed importance of 2005 North-South Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Former UK diplomat Derek Plumbly appointed new head of CPA monitoring body 13 Feb. Justice Minister Mohammed Ali al-Mardi removed from position in 14 Feb Khartoum cabinet reshuffle.

Africa

Sudan

Security in West Darfur worsened with Chadian army conducting air raids inside Sudanese territory and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) threatening capital El Geneina. Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) attacked UN/AU (UNAMID) convoy 7 Jan near Tine. Khartoum continued to obstruct UNAMID deployment while appointing Musa Hilal, leader of Janjaweed militias, special adviser to Ministry of Federal Affairs. UN and AU Darfur envoys, Salim  Salim and Jan Eliasson, 19 Jan stressed deteriorating relations between Chad and Sudan but said preparation underway for another round of Darfur pre-negotiations among rebels in next 6 weeks. SLM-Unity led by Abdallah Yahya, and newly formed United Resistance Front (URF) agreed to take part; Abdelshafi in Juba declined, preferring further SPLM initiative; Abdel Wahid and Khalil Ibrahim of JEM conditioned participation. SAF moved out of south Sudan’s oil-producing areas 9 Jan, according to new agreement between SPLM and National Congress Party (NCP), although SPLM claims not all redeployment achieved. AU summit in Addis Ababa 25 Jan-2 Feb. Sudan initially submitted request to head AU despite failed bid in 2006 and 2007, but withdrew it 29 Jan.

Africa

Sudan

SPLM returned to government of national unity (GNU) 27 December avoiding collapse of CPA, but clashes started along north-south border and fighting continued in Darfur. Combined Popular Defence Forces militia, government troops and Misseriya tribesmen reportedly clashed with SPLA 23-24 and 28 December in Southern Kordofan and Northern Bahr el- Ghazal. SPLM rejoined GNU after progress on some issues that triggered October 2007 withdrawal, though not Abyei. New list gives greater representation of SPLM in Khartoum: including minister of cabinet affairs and foreign minister. Regional dynamics shifted in Darfur as ex-Janjaweed leader, Ali Hamiti, defected from Khartoum, reportedly in alliance with SLA/Abdel Wahid and Khalil Ibrahim’s Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). In month JEM claimed victories against government troops in Kordofan and Suleia town, downing of government airplane, capture of SAF garrison outside el-Geneina, and claimed control of Chinese oil facility 11 December. Khartoum accused Chad of bombing in Darfur in cooperation with JEM attacks – denied by N’Djamena. Aid groups/NGOs said UN/AU peacekeeping force for Darfur (UNAMID) which took over from AU 1 January 2008, hampered by Khartoum and lack of logistical support; urged UNSC to impose targeted sanctions if situation continues. UNAMID continues to lack force capabilities, including 24 helicopters. U.S. diplomat John Granville murdered in Khartoum, 1 January.

Africa

Sudan

North-South tension continued after SPLM’s October withdrawal from government of national unity. President Omar al-Bashir called for reopening of training camps for “mujahideen” Popular Defence Forces militia, said not flexible on contested borders of oil-rich Abyei region and “NCP ready for war” 17 November; though 21 November stated commitment to dialogue to preserve national unity. SPLM gave 9 January 2008 deadline for resolution of several provisions in CPA – including Abyei protocol, redeployment of forces, border demarcation, population census, and transparency in oil sector. AU/UN mediated peace talks progressed to consultation phase with meetings in Darfur, Khartoum and Juba to bring boycotting factions into process. 6 SLA factions and 3 other groups signed Charter of Unification 13 November in Juba, and umbrella group URF (United Resistance Front) formed from 5 others, but key groups missing. Sirte talks due to restart in December but AU envoy, Salim Ahmed Salim, suggested possible delay to allow rebel unification. JEM rejected presence of 130 Chinese army engineers 24 November and accused Beijing of stoking Darfur crisis by supporting regime. Khartoum refused to agree on make-up of UNAMID force, rejecting Scandinavian unit, amongst others. URF claimed victory over Sudanese army and Janjaweed in 20 November clash; denied by government. 7 people reported killed at Medecins Sans Frontieres hospital in Bor 29 November as tribal pastoral conflict killing over 20 spilled over.

Africa

Sudan

SPLM announced temporary suspension of participation in Government of National Unity (GNU) 11October due to delays in CPA implementation. Issues include Abyei, oil revenue distribution, SAF’s full withdrawal from South and demarcation of N/S border. SPLM to rejoin GNU only when demands begin to be implemented - gave 9 January 2008 deadline. Move pulled international attention back to N/S issues ahead of 27 October Darfur peace talks in Sirte, Libya. Government announced unilateral ceasefire as talks began but main rebel factions JEM and SLA-Unity not among 6 groups represented. Talks adjourned 30 October to allow further consultations between mediators and rebel groups in Darfur before actual negotiations start. JEM attacked Chinese-run oil facility at Diffra in Kordofan (Abyei) 25 October. AU and UN investigated reports government troops and allied militias killed over 30 civilians in Muhagiriya, southern Darfur 8 October. UN reported hundreds forced out of refugee camp in Nyala, South Darfur by Sudanese soldiers and police 29 October. Khartoum said would not accept any Europeans in hybrid AU/UN Darfur force 27 October. UNSC extended mandate of UNMIS by 6 months, 31 October.

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