CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Sudan

Situation deteriorated on both north/south and Darfur fronts. Serious setback of Darfur peace process possible due to 29 September attack on AMIS base at Haskanita: 10 peacekeepers killed, 10 wounded, dozens reported missing; vehicles, weapons looted. Haskanita village earlier attacked by government forces mid-month. Non- (DPA) signatories, Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) Unity faction and Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) splinter accused of attack, no one claimed responsibility. Long-awaited negotiations between Khartoum and rebels due 27 October in Libya under AU/UN mediation in what is still seen as rare opportunity for progress, but prospects undermined by fighting between GoS and rebel groups, 29 September attack and divisions between rebel groups: Abdel Wahid continued to refuse to attend talks; JEM refused ceasefire before final agreement; SLA faction leader Ahmed Abdelshaafie asked for delay to better prepare. 2 rebel leaders also called for possible self-determination for Darfur. JEM and elements of Misseriya launched joint attack in Northern Kordofan earlier in month. DPKO planning for UNAMID deployment continued despite Khartoum’s refusal of night flights and airstrip repairs. AU and Sudan insist on all-African force but UN claims different expertise/assets required. Relations between NCP and SPLM also worsened, pushing fragile CPA even closer to collapse. Incidents included temporary siege by government forces of SPLA contingent in Muglad; escalated war rhetoric between political leadership; and raids on 3 SPLM offices by security services in Khartoum. UNSG Ban Ki-moon focused on Darfur, fragile CPA during 4-day visit; appointed Ashraf Qazi new UNMIS SRSG 11 September.

Africa

Sudan

Composition of 26,000-strong UN/AU force (UNAMID), authorised 31 July, debated; after meeting with President Bashir, AU Chairperson Alpha Oumar Konare said non-Africans not required. U.S. Special Envoy Natsios expressed doubts over AU troop skill-level. 12 rebel groups attended 3-6 August Arusha talks with AU/UN mediators. Most significant absence was SLM faction leader Abdul Wahid. Though full rebel reunification not achieved, attendees reached “common platform” for final peace talks with government; mediators hoping for talks October. SPLM proposed 50/50 revenue sharing with NCP in oil-rich Abyei as interim measure; NCP rejected. Fighting between rival Arab tribes in Darfur continued: Rizeigat and Tarjum signed truce 11 August after clashes killed 140. Amnesty International reported 23 August Sudanese government deploying weapons to Darfur in defiance of arms embargo. UN human rights office 21 August accused government- allied forces of mass abduction and rape in South Darfur December. Khartoum expelled top Canadian and EU diplomats for “meddling in its affairs”, director of CARE for “espionage”. EU envoy returned following “apology”. UN Sec. Gen. to travel to region early September.

Africa

Sudan

UN Security Council voted unanimously 31 July to begin sending joint UN/AU force of 26,000 troops and police to Darfur. Resolution 1769 includes Chapter VII mandate to justify use of force to protect civilians and gives command and control to UN; new UNAMID force to take command of region from 7,000-strong AU mission (AMIS) by end of year “at the latest”. But conflict threatens in north as hydro-electric dams displace communities and local resistance to projects becomes increasingly militant: Merowe dam contested mostly by Manassir tribe; Kajbar dam by Nubian community. Several violent clashes between Nubians and government reported. Merowe reservoir to be flooded in August which could displace as many as 70,000 who refuse to leave. Tripoli meeting on Darfur chaired by UN and AU 15 July agreed second phase of AU/UN road map to begin: pre- negotiation phase to create necessary conditions for full negotiations. AU/UN called for talks amongst Darfur rebels to start in Arusha 3 August. New movement, United Front for Liberation and Development (UFLD) consisting of 2 SLM factions, RDFF, NMRD and SFDA, announced intention to join. SLM faction leader Abdul Wahid refused to attend. CPA implementation fell further behind as 9 July deadline missed for all Sudanese SAF units to be redeployed from South and SPLA redeployed from North, save those operating in Joint-Integrated Units.

Africa

Sudan

Small steps forward but no promise of short-term security improvement in Darfur. Khartoum agreed, again, to allow hybrid AU/UN force in Darfur after high-level meeting in Addis Ababa 11 and 12 June, reconfirmed following UN Security Council delegation visit 17 June. But UN command and control publicly rejected by President Bashir 19 June. New force would still not be operational until well into 2008. UN Special Envoy to Darfur Jan Eliasson outlined new 3-part AU/UN roadmap for Darfur to UNSC 8 June: convergence of initiatives under AU/UN lead; pre-negotiation on positions of Khartoum and non-signatories to Darfur Peace Agreement; and peace negotiations. Eliasson and AU Special Envoy Salim Salim aim for new negotiations by August. France hosted meeting of over 15 FMs from concerned countries 25 June but no significant progress. Oxfam announced permanent withdrawal from Gereida in Darfur, citing reluctance by authorities to improve security. SPLM initiative to unify Darfur rebel movements postponed as key groups refused to attend, and confusion within SPLM over who is invited. Other initiatives to unite Darfur rebels being pursued by Asmara and various NGOs. AU Peace and Security Council extended AMIS mandate until end of year 22 June. Sudanese presidential adviser, responsible for Darfur affairs, Majzoub al-Khalifa, killed in road accident 27 June.

Africa

Sudan

U.S. President Bush imposed largely symbolic new unilateral economic sanctions on Sudan 29 May and sought support for international arms embargo in response to Khartoum’s refusal to end conflict in Darfur. UN and AU drafted plans for 23,000-strong hybrid force to be approved by UNSC and AU Peace and Security Committee. SPLM initiative to unite Darfur rebel groups given support by UN and AU envoys Jan Eliasson and Salim Ahmed Salim 10 May. Office of UN High Commission for Human Rights reported Sudanese security forces killed more than 100 in indiscriminate attacks on villages in south Darfur January-March. Eastern rebels finally agreed on list of 3 candidates for government posts to allow delayed October 2006 peace plan to go forward. Key national census, set for November, may be postponed to January/February 2008. NCP and SPLM engaged in high-level meetings on status of 2005 CPA implementation and their political partnership; Abyei and oil issues remain unresolved.

Africa

Sudan

Government of Sudan agreed 16 April to “heavy support package” to allow up to 3000 UN personnel into Darfur to support 7000 AU troops there, but Khartoum continued to resist deployment of 20,000 AU/UN hybrid force. Agreed package includes attack helicopters and armoured personnel carriers. Agreement followed debate of increased sanctions, week of visits to Khartoum by Chinese envoy Zhai Jun, SA President Thabo Mbeki and U.S. Dep. Sec. State John Negroponte. China involvement deemed key, though Khartoum had already committed to deal last November. U.S. stated 23 April that Khartoum must agree to hybrid force in matter of weeks or face tougher economic sanctions. Existing UNMIS force given 6-month extension 30 April. 5 AU Senegalese peacekeepers killed near Chad border 1 April in deadliest attack since 2004 deployment; 2 further deaths saw deadliest month for AU. Senegal threatened 13 April to pull out 500-strong contingent unless support provided. Leaked UN report accused Khartoum of flying arms and equipment into Darfur, disguising planes as UN aircraft, in violation of arms embargo. Rebels reported government airstrike against Jemmeiza village and further 73 killed in northern Darfur.Transitional Darfur Regional Authority inaugurated 24 April as step in implementation of 2006 Darfur Peace Agreement.

Africa

Sudan

In 6 March letter to UNSG Ban Ki-moon, President Bashir backtracked on commitment to allow UN command and control for AU/UN hybrid force for Darfur. UK PM Blair and German Chancellor Merkel reiterated calls for tougher sanctions, including no-fly zone. Khartoum signed agreement with UN 28 March repeating unfulfilled promise made 3 years ago to take “fast track” measures to remove bureaucratic obstacles to aid work in Darfur. Sudan Liberation Movement faction of Minni Minawi (SLM/MM), sole signatory to May 2006 Darfur Peace Agreement, clashed with police 24 March in Omdurman; 8 former rebels and 2 police killed; agreement at risk of collapse. SLM commander Abdel Shafee Jomaa Arabi and 3 others reportedly killed same day in south Darfur further threatening DPA. Khartoum rejected ICC process commenced in February (against state minister for humanitarian affairs, Ahmad Muhammad Harun, and militia/Janjaweed leader Ali Kushayb), saying its own justice system sufficient. First Vice- President and President of South Sudan, Salva Kiir, announced all-Darfur conference scheduled for April in Juba; called on rebels to agree unified position in advance of talks.

Africa

Sudan

Khartoum continued to increase forces in Darfur and block progress beyond phase 1 (light UN assistance program) of 3-phase plan for hybrid AU/UN deployment. Hundreds of government-backed militia amassed north Geneina, south west Darfur. Thousands displaced and up to 100 killed, after tribal clashes mid-February between 2 Arab tribes in south Darfur. AU/UN envoys stated rebel groups ready to abide by May 2006 peace deal, but factionalism remained barrier to effective negotiations: 19 February conference to unite disparate rebel groups postponed again with no set date to reconvene, while Libya/Eritrea-hosted meeting in Tripoli 21 February to discuss Eritrean mediation effort, attended by some rebel factions, Chadian President Deby and President Bashir. UNSG Ban Ki-moon condemned Bashir’s block on UN human rights Darfur mission, and EU resolution called for cessation of Chinese arms trade to Sudan, Chapter VII UN deployment in absence of Sudanese government agreement, no-fly zone, and sanctions including possible oil embargo. ICC Prosecutor presented evidence 27 February against current Sudanese state minister for humanitarian affairs, Ahmad Muhammad Harun, formerly minister for interior, and militia/Janjaweed leader Ali Kushayb, for war crimes and crimes against humanity carried out against civilian population in West Darfur 2003-2004.

Africa

Sudan

Sudanese air force escalated bombing campaign in northern Darfur; government targeted possible sites of planned SLA field commanders’ conference after promising AU and UN to let conference go forward. Little progress with AU/UN 3- phase plan for Darfur: discussions on phase 2, heavy assistance package, delayed due to lack of enthusiasm amongst troop-contributing countries and delays for tripartite AU/UN/Sudan meeting; no progress with phase 3 (AU/UN hybrid force). UNSG Ban Ki-moon called on Khartoum to admit UN troops as part of hybrid force at AU summit. Relations between Khartoum and government of Southern Sudan at all- time low, with SPLM 1st Vice-President Salva Kiir and President Bashir trading blame for delays in CPA implementation. For second consecutive year, AU members rejected Sudan’s bid to chair organisation.

Africa

Sudan

Humanitarian and security situation deteriorated in Darfur while negotiations continued over deployment of strengthened peacekeeping force. In 23 December letter to UNSG Annan, President Omar al-Bashir stated acceptance of AU/UN 3-phase plan as “viable framework for peaceful settlement” to conflict in Darfur and called for “immediate” implementation. First phase - deployment of new staff and equipment to AU force - began 28 December, to be followed by larger support package. Uncertainty remains over third phase with al-Bashir saying size and command of new force should be determined by both AU and UN, and actual deployment by Tripartite Committee (AU, UN, Khartoum) effectively giving Sudan a veto. Earlier UK PM Blair gave support for sanctions, and enforced no-fly zone, should Khartoum reject 3-phase plan. Aid agencies warned attacks by armed militias in Darfur had destabilised region further and forced evacuation of up to 400 staff in December. AU Ceasefire Commission reported re-emergence of “re-supplied and rearmed” Janjaweed. UNSG Annan appointed former Swedish foreign minister Jan Eliasson as special envoy; UN Human Rights Council agreed to send team to investigate abuses. Situation stabilised in Malakal early December after late November clashes between SPLA and army.

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