CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Sudan

Major fighting erupted in south between Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in first major violation of 2005 north-south peace agreement. Fighting between SAF-aligned southern militia led by Maj Gen Gabriel Tang Ginye and SPLA escalated into major clashes between SAF and SPLA in Malakal, Upper Nile state 28 November: casualties reportedly in the hundreds. Calm restored to Malakal, following high-level interventions by SAF, SPLA and UN. Deterioration of security situation in Darfur continued as hopes raised by international talks with Khartoum, then ebbed with government backing away from agreement. UK, U.S., EU, China, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria and Arab League met in Addis Ababa 16 November to discuss 3-phase plan. Khartoum agreed in principle to phases 1 and 2: light technical support to existing AU force, followed by heavy support including deployment of military, police and civilian personnel as well as possible aviation and logistical assets. AU and UN reported Khartoum also agreed, in principle, to “hybrid” AU/UN operation (Phase 3), pending clarification of force size. China reportedly encouraged Khartoum to accept plan. President Bashir later rejected hybrid force in preference for “African solution”, and claimed less than 9,000 have died in Darfur. SPLM called for UN force even without consent of Khartoum. U.S. and UK suggested 1 January deadline for Khartoum to consent to AU/UN hybrid plan, or face “tougher measures”. AU PSC met in Nigeria on 29 November, agreed to extend mandate of AU mission for another 6 months.

Africa

Sudan

Fierce fighting in north and south Darfur as Khartoum continued to pursue military solution to conflict. Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) suffered string of major defeats, and reportedly faced increased desertions during offensive against rebel National Redemption Front; UN Special Envoy Pronk expelled after blog comments noting SAF defeats and military’s low morale. Khartoum continued to reject deployment of UN forces as authorised by UN Security Council resolution 1706. Implementation of 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement continued to falter: NCP undermining progress on reorganisation of oil sector, delineation of North-South borders and issue of oil-rich Abyei area. SPLM public support for UN mission in Darfur further strained NCP-SPLM relations. Government of Southern Sudan facilitating negotiations in Juba between Ugandan government and Ugandan rebel LRA, but series of violent attacks killing over 40 civilians around Juba between 17-20 October and clashes between LRA and UPDF shook South. Peace agreement between government and Eastern Front rebels signed in Asmara 14 October after negotiations facilitated by Eritrea; provides for increased development aid to East and minimal power sharing for Eastern Front in national and regional governments.

Africa

Sudan

As UN human rights monitors reported worsening violence including government bombing of villages in north Darfur and continuing sexual violence against women, AU’s Peace and Security Council 20 September extended mandate of its peacekeeping force in Darfur (AMIS) until end 2006 - temporarily averting security vacuum. AU announced additional deployment of 4,000 troops: UN pledged further logistical and material support, Arab states pledged funding. President Bashir continued to reject UN force for Darfur, authorised by UNSC resolution 1706, but agreed to AMIS extension having previously given AU force departure ultimatum. In move likely to undercut urgent international calls (and Security Council resolution) for UN deployment, UN Special Envoy Pronk suggested international community should focus on AMIS reinforcement and extension given Khartoum’s position on UN force; also warned Darfur Peace Agreement in poor condition, and commission set up to monitor and implement accord dysfunctional. UN Deputy SG Malloch Brown also questioned efficacy of U.S. and UK “megaphone” diplomacy and veiled threats at Khartoum. Sudanese military intensified operations in north Darfur against National Redemption Front alliance, non-signatories of 5 May Darfur Peace Agreement. U.S. administration promised renewed attention to Darfur: new special envoy Andrew Natsios appointed and U.S. Sec. State Rice stated Khartoum failing to protect citizens. Asmara talks between Khartoum and Eastern Front rebels progressed with signing of draft security protocol 28 September.

Africa

Sudan

Sudanese military launched strike 29 August on Darfur rebel groups not party to May Darfur Peace Agreement. Reports indicated government offensive drove back rebels from Kulkul 29 August as Khartoum continued to build military presence in North Darfur. UN Security Council voted 31 August to approve force for Darfur with some Chapter VII powers, “inviting” consent from Khartoum. Sudanese approval nonetheless considered prerequisite for deployment; President Bashir continued to reject any UN force for Darfur and Sudan refused to attend UNSC discussions on the issue prior to vote, pointing to plan for its own force of 12,000 new troops. Resolution does authorise existing UNMIS force to provide support to cash-strapped AU force already in Darfur, whose mandate currently expires end September. Minni Minnawi, leader of rebel SLA faction that signed the May peace deal and now fighting alongside government forces, appointed senior assistant to President Bashir. Chronic insecurity continued: UN official Jan Egeland called situation worst since 2004; WFP said 500,000 cut off from food aid. Relations between Khartoum and Chad improved as border opened and diplomatic ties re-established. Asmara talks between Khartoum and Eastern Front rebels led to agreement for more regional development.

Africa

Sudan

Implementation of 5 May Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) at standstill, while rebels’ split over DPA deepened and infighting increased. Sudanese military reported to be supporting attacks by SLA Minnawi faction, only group to sign DPA, against newly formed National Redemption Front (NRF) rebel group (Chad-backed alliance of JEM and other signatories). Abdel Wahid replaced by Abdel Shafi as head of splinter SLA faction, may ally with NRF. Government and Janjaweed militias attacked NRF bases in Jebel Moon and Kulkul despite ceasefire in west, displacing hundreds. NRF attack on Hamrat al-Sheikh in North Kordofan killed 12, fueled fear Darfur conflict could spread across Sudan. AU agreed to extend AMIS mandate to end 2006; donors later pledged $220 million, mostly in kind, to keep beleaguered mission alive. Donors continued to push UN re-hatting; UNSG Annan suggested 31 July UN force of 24,000: rejected by Khartoum. U.S. President Bush met with both Minnawi and VP Kiir to discuss peace processes in South and Darfur. In South, 15 killed in Rubkona in clashes between Sudanese army and SPLA 22 July. CPA Assessment and Evaluation Commission reported lack of progress implementing agreement, particularly in oil-rich Abyei. Up to 70 killed in inter-clan fighting in Lakes state over access to water and pasture. In east, second round peace talks mediated by Eritrea began between government and East Sudan Front rebels.

Africa

Sudan

Implementation of Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) faltered as rebel divisions widened. Members of SLA Minawi faction announced suspension of DPA implementation, suggesting tacit split with Minawi ahead of his delegation’s visit to Khartoum for talks. Violent clashes between SLA factions further hindered Darfur humanitarian access. Joint commission inaugurated to monitor DPA ceasefire, but no action taken. President Bashir continued to refuse “colonial” UN Darfur peacekeeping mission, suggested alternate Sudanese force. UNSG Annan to press matter at AU Summit 1 July, but other UN official said no force feasible before January 2007. ICC lead prosecutor announced compilation of “Darfur crimes database”, said will prosecute “large-scale atrocities”; Sudan claimed ICC has no jurisdiction. South Sudan President Machar continued to arrange peace talks between Uganda and LRA rebels, as alleged LRA attack on Juba killed 9. In east, Khartoum signed ceasefire pact 19 June and agreed to July talks with Eastern Front rebels demanding greater autonomy.

Africa

Sudan

Under intense international pressure, government and largest SLA rebel faction led by Minawi signed Darfur Peace Agreement 5 May in Abuja. Plan calls for creation of temporary regional authority with rebel participation, Janjaweed disarmament, incorporation of rebels into army and Sudanese government funds for reconstruction and compensation. But SLA faction headed by Abdel Wahid and smaller JEM rebel group refused to sign, despite AU urging to do so by 31 May or face possible sanctions. UN Security Council unanimously passed 16 May resolution under Chapter VII supporting peace plan and created team to assess transfer of AU mission to UN, despite Khartoum’s ongoing opposition to UN force. Violent demonstrations by refugees protesting agreement and calling for international protection: AU interpreter killed during UN humanitarian chief Egeland visit to Kalma camp, South Darfur. Rebels accused government of attacking villages in South Darfur, killing dozens. In southeastern state Jonglei, several killed in clashes between SPLA and armed civilians of Lou Nuer community over forced disarmament.

Africa

Sudan

Severe insecurity in Darfur continued, spilling over into Chad: latter cut off diplomatic ties after 13 April Chadian rebel attack on N’Djamena, claiming Khartoum support. Janjaweed militias raided refugee camps inside Chadian border. 48-hour extension given after 30 April deadline at Abuja peace talks passed without deal: government agreed to sign AU-backed agreement, but SLA/JEM rebels rejected plan, failing to find common position. Relations with UN worsened after Sudan denied humanitarian affairs chief Jan Egeland and, separately, UN military assessment team permission to visit Darfur. UN Security Council imposed sanctions on 4 Sudanese individuals held responsible for atrocities in Darfur; while UNSC committee recommended extending sanctions and instituting no-fly zone. Al-Qaeda head bin Laden threatened war against international community in Darfur. In continued violence in south, 15 killed in clashes between SSDF militia and SPLM forces; SSDF in- fighting killed 32. In eastern Kassala, rebels attacked government positions, killing 8; Khartoum asked Eritrea to mediate.

Africa

Sudan

AU extended peacekeeping mission until 30 September and “in principle” accepted transfer of operation to UN. Sudanese government maintained opposition to re- hatting: President al-Bashir said AU did not need foreign assistance at Arab Summit 28 March, but First Vice President Kiir stated UN troops could enter if had clear mandate. UN Security Council asked UNSG Annan to expedite planning for transfer of mission. AU also endorsed plan to deploy military observers to increasingly volatile Chad/Sudan border. Seventh round of Darfur peace talks threatened by rebel in-fighting and continued clashes in Darfur. Faction of SLA rebels renounced leader el-Nur, but AU maintained both el-Nur and Minawi as SLM/A representatives in talks. AU proposed placing rival forces in Darfur behind buffer zones to demilitarise humanitarian supply routes and camps for IDPs. In south, government-allied militia killed 12 SPLA soldiers in ambush near Abyei, while UN buildings in Yambio and Yei attacked by alleged Ugandan LRA rebels. Grenade attack 12 March killed 4 in Massala, eastern Sudan.

Africa

Sudan

UN Security Council authorised planning for expected re-hatting of AU mission in Darfur to UN mission, despite strong objections from Khartoum; resolution expected March after AU makes final decision on handover. UNSG Annan asked U.S. President Bush for greater U.S. role in Darfur; Bush called for doubling of international troops and role for NATO in planning and logistics. Little progress in Darfur peace talks with continued insecurity on ground. UK FM Straw warned would consider UN sanctions if no headway made. Sudan and Chad signed agreement in Libya to end cross-border dispute, committing to preventing presence of rebels on other’s territory. UN expert panel recommended Security Council extend arms embargo; discussions on sanctions for individuals seen to be blocking peace process continued. 7 killed in clashes between South Sudan Defence Forces and SPLA in Upper Nile region. Eastern Front rebels indefinitely postponed peace talks with government.

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