CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Sudan

UN Security Council voted to strengthen Darfur arms embargo and impose asset freeze and travel ban on those deemed to impede peace – application to begin within 30 days. U.S. backed down from threat to veto resolution on referral of Darfur war crimes to ICC, having obtained immunity guarantees for U.S. staff. But situation in Darfur remained grim. UN said refugee crisis contained, but violence ongoing; pulled staff out of most of western Darfur following threats from Janjaweed militia; and raised its mortality estimates from 70,000 to at least 180,000, while accepting true figure might be higher. Security Council voted 24 March to send 10,000 troops and 700 civilians as peacekeeping mission in southern Sudan amidst fears over stalling implementation of north-south Naivasha peace. Mission also set to “foster peace in Darfur”.

Africa

Sudan

Situation in Darfur remained dire, with inadequate international response. Long-awaited UN commission concluded atrocity crimes had been committed in Darfur, but insufficient evidence of genocide; named 51 war crimes suspects and urged referral to International Criminal Court (ICC). U.S. resisted referral, preferring to finance addition to Tanzania-based International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda; EU and others said ad hoc courts overstretched and time- limited, and urged U.S. to abstain on Security Council vote. Breaches of ceasefire ongoing with rebel attacks - leading to possible exclusion of Justice and Equality Movement rebels from future talks - and continued government and militia attacks. N’djamena Joint Ceasefire Commission suggested AU-backed talks could recommence mid-March; Sudan Liberation Movement called for enforcement of no-fly zone and government withdrawal from captured areas as precondition; Vice President Taha said Sudanese forces withdrawing from western Darfur. Meanwhile, UN said up to 4 million may soon be in need of famine relief. Following January north-south peace accord, discussions continued on 10,000-strong UN peacekeeping force to be deployed southern Sudan within 6 months.

Africa

Sudan

Formal signing of Naivasha deal 9 January. UN Security Council expressed hope deal could be step towards resolving Darfur situation, with formation of Khartoum coalition government, decentralisation and interim constitution. Discussion on UN monitoring force in south and central Sudan - to number up to 10,000 - underway. EU unfroze development aid to Sudan 25 January. In further positive development, opposition umbrella group National Democratic Alliance (NDA) signed political agreement with government to reintegrate NDA and lift state of emergency in force since 1989. Meanwhile, at least 20 killed in Beja protest for greater autonomy Port Sudan following demands for greater power and wealth-sharing on Naivasha lines; state governor later said some demands could be met after April implementation of north-south peace.

Sudan - Darfur: Insecurity continued with multiple ceasefire breaches and intensified government security operations. U.S. proposal for UN sanctions to reflect crisis rejected by China and Russia 25 January; UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, speaking at African Union Abuja summit, said sanctions should remain option. WHO suggested humanitarian crisis may be easing, but violence continued, with fighting in West Darfur, razing of several villages South Darfur and 105 killed in Hamada town in government operation. Government aerial attack killed 100 in Shangil Tobaya town 26 January drawing sharp international criticism. AU said monitors initially prevented from investigating. Negotiations between main rebel groups and government slated for February. Long-awaited UN commission of enquiry concluded state-sponsored genocide had not taken place in Darfur, but cited multiple abuses of international humanitarian law. U.S. and EU continued to disagree on possible UN Security Council referral of crimes to International Criminal Court.

Africa

Sudan

Final peace agreement ending 20-year civil war between government and southern Sudan People’s Liberation Army rebels signed Naivasha 31 December. But Darfur situation continued to slide: UN Secretary-General said international approach “not working”; U.S. President Bush signed law enabling sanctions. On-off peace talks Abuja ended with agreement to reconvene January 2005 and temporary ceasefire. However, fighting continued, cutting off humanitarian supplies from civilian population. Fighting around Nyala and Labado, south Darfur, forced suspension of relief, while Save the Children suspended operations after 2 separate incidents killed 3 aid workers. Previously unknown rebel group based neighbouring Kordofan state launched 18 December attack on oil installation, citing marginalisation from peace process. Same group claimed responsibility for attack on Gbubeish 27 December; World Food Programme suspended relief convoys to 260,000 as result. Head of African Union (AU) monitoring mission claimed weapons’ inflow made situation “time bomb”; only 1 third of AU mission deployed.

Africa

Sudan

Despite positive movement on IGAD-backed peace- talks between government and southern Sudan People’s Liberation Army rebels (with Security Council urging conclusion and parties signing memorandum 19 November agreeing to finalise peace modalities by year-end) month of increasing violence in Darfur and failing international response; at least 1.5 million now displaced and over 70,000 killed. UN envoy Jan Pronk said current African Union (AU) protection force insufficient. But UN Security Council meeting Nairobi 17-18 November backtracked on previous warnings to Sudanese government on Darfur, while UN position towards rebels hardened in face of declining security. AU-backed Darfur negotiations between government and 2 rebel groups resulted in Abuja protocols 9 November, including Darfur no-fly zone; protocols disregarded with ongoing government bombing campaign and accusations of ceasefire breaches on both sides. Having previously attacked Kalma and Geraida, 100 rebels stormed Tawilla 22 November. UN warned security situation disrupting humanitarian aid, with 300,000 cut off. Sides blamed each other for police station attacks northern Darfur. Assault on El Geer refugee camp by Sudanese police 10 November deemed “unacceptable” by U.S. Sec. State Colin Powell.

Africa

Sudan

Diplomatic manoeuvring over Darfur crisis continued. Sudan accepted African Union (AU) force expansion 1 October; negotiations on mandate and size resulted in 20 October announcement of force of 3,320, including 815 police, with monitoring and monitor-protection role. Government of Sudan retained primary security responsibility, disappointing hopes for more pro-active AU role. EU to bear half $220 million cost. Billeting problems and political disagreements likely to slow deployment, planned for completion within 3 months; Sudan refused entry to 237 Rwandan AU soldiers on U.S. planes 25 October. Parallel AU-backed government and Darfur rebel talks on Security Arrangements and political issues began Abuja 25 October; divisions between rebel groups threatened break-up of talks. Summit between Chad, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria and Sudan rejected “foreign intervention” 17 October. Aid convoy attacked 6 October and 2 aid workers killed by landmine 10 October in attacks attributed to 2 new Darfur militias. Meanwhile, rebel group emerged neighbouring West Kordofan seeking changes to Naivasha accords between government and southern SPLA insurgents. Final government/SPLA talks restarted 7 October; broke up 1 November and will reconvene 26 November. SPLA leader John Garang said deal possible by year-end, suggesting “solution to Darfur…through…Naivasha”. UN Security Council voted to hold November 18-19 session in Nairobi in attempt to provide impetus to conflict resolution.

Africa

Sudan

No end in sight to crisis in Darfur: U.S. Sec. State Colin Powell termed situation genocide, UN increased displaced persons estimate to 1.8 million. Thirty-day deadline for action passed 30 August without result. UN Special Envoy Jan Pronk described “culture of impunity” to UN Security Council 2 September - observers criticised report citing lack of recommended international action. After drawn-out negotiations Security Council agreed weakened resolution 18 September threatening consideration of possible oil industry sanctions if situation unimproved; requested creation of international commission of inquiry to investigate human rights abuses. Meanwhile, Africa Union-backed Abuja peace talks between Justice and Equality Movement, Sudan Liberation Movement and Khartoum government broke up 17 September; will resume October. Attack on West Kordofan police station outside Darfur killed 8 late September. UN mission to Sudan claimed 30 September “large-scale and systematic” war crimes had occurred and could recur; called for Sudan to accept AU offer of thousands of extra peace monitors. Meanwhile, Khartoum said it averted Islamist opposition coup plot 25 September. President Al-Bashir accused U.S. of funding Darfur rebels. Final talks between government and southern Sudan People’s Liberation Army to resume 7 October.

Africa

Sudan

First 150 African Union (AU) troops, of total 300 expected, arrived Darfur 15 August to protect 100 unarmed AU ceasefire monitors. African and international pressure still fell short of that necessary to pressure Sudanese government and provide protection for people of Darfur. Sudan appeared to accept possible 2,000 further AU troops 25 August at AU-backed peace negotiations in Abuja, but said troops could only help with cantonment and disarming of rebel groups; rebels insisted would not confine themselves to base before political solution. Rebels briefly boycotted talks 28 August claiming 75 villagers killed in Sudanese government ceasefire violation; AU ceasefire commission suggested breaches by both sides. UN Special Envoy to Sudan Jan Pronk noted mixed progress, easing of aid restrictions and police deployment. Deadline for response to July 2004 UN Security Council resolution passed 30 August; Pronk will brief Security Council 2 September on situation, with subsequent UNSC decision on possible further measures. In positive development 31 August, southern SPLA rebels and government extended 3-month truce to 30 November.

Africa

Sudan

Growing but still inadequate international response to crisis in Darfur. UN Security Council voted 13-0, with 2 abstentions, in support of long-awaited - but watered-down - resolution 30 July, imposing immediate arms embargo on non-government entities, threatening further action in 30 days if Sudan fails to rein in Janjaweed militias. Following visit of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, Sudan and UN issued joint communiqué 3 July promising to alleviate crisis in Darfur; UN observers will report back to Joint Implementation Mechanism 2 August. U.S. Congress voted to label situation “genocide” 22 July. UK hinted at possible 5,000-strong troop deployment, with Sudan rejecting notion of foreign intervention, calling for “balance” and time, and claiming 5,000 police deployed to Darfur. Africa Union (AU)- backed talks in Addis Ababa between government and Darfur rebels collapsed 17 July after 2 days. AU summit meeting in Ghana 30 July mooted strengthening of AU mission beyond planned 300. AU observers reported ongoing Janjaweed atrocities 28 July. Sudan accused Eritrea 31 July of backing alleged alliance between Darfur rebels and eastern Free Lions Association insurgents.

Africa

Sudan

Crisis deepened in Darfur as rainy season making aid delivery increasingly difficult. UNHCR claimed budget one third of that required to care for 200,000 expected in UN camps. UNSG Kofi Annan and U.S. Sec. State Colin Powell separately visited Khartoum and Darfur 29-30 June, as U.S. considered sponsoring Security Council resolution threatening sanctions. Little credence given to Sudanese president al-Bashir’s 19 June pledge to disarm Janjaweed militia, who continue to operate, effectively confining 75-80,000 to Murnei, attacking humanitarian convoy near Kabkabiya 15 June and refugee camps. Annan appointed Jan Pronk special representative for Sudan ahead of possible peace-support operation in south following signing of Naivasha accords. Uganda claimed lack of Sudanese cooperation against rebel Lord’s Resistance Army bases in southern Sudan.

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