CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Sudan

Security forces escalated attacks on protesters in capital Khartoum and surrounding areas early June, reportedly killing over 120, and external efforts to mediate between military leadership and civilian opposition failed to revive talks. Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) 3 June stormed sit-in protest outside army HQ in Khartoum, reportedly killing some 120 protesters. In following days paramilitary forces continued to roam Khartoum and abuse civilians and RSF reportedly resumed attacks in Darfur in west. African Union 6 June suspended Sudan’s participation in its activities until transition to civilian-led authority. After initially denying responsibility, Transitional Military Council (TMC) 14 June admitted ordering dispersal of sit-in. TMC 4 June cancelled all agreements with opposition coalition Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), said it would form interim govt and hold elections within nine months, and imposed internet blackout; FFC same day called for countrywide strike and civil disobedience until TMC stepped down. On strike’s first day 9 June, security forces fired gunshots and tear gas to disperse protesters in Khartoum and Omdurman, reportedly killing four. Tens of thousands demonstrated countrywide 30 June; seven protesters reportedly killed in clashes with security forces. Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed and AU launched parallel mediation initiatives. Abiy 7 June met TMC chair al-Burhan and opposition in Khartoum. TMC same day detained protest leader Mohamed Esmat, 10 June deported leader, deputy and spokesman of rebel group and FFC member Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) to South Sudan. TMC 22 June pledged to free all imprisoned fighters from Darfuri armed opposition and hold talks with rebels in Chadian capital N’Djamena. TMC 9 June said it was willing to restart talks and FFC 12 June agreed to resume negotiations and end civil disobedience. FFC 22 June agreed to Ethiopian proposal for joint interim authority, but TMC rejected it 24 June. Ethiopia and AU next day submitted new joint proposal, including civilian-majority governing council, and TMC agreed to resume talks.

Africa

Sudan

Tensions rose as military council continued to resist opposition demands for civilian leadership and security forces reportedly attacked protesters, raising risk of more intense clashes in June. After talks between Transitional Military Council (TMC) and opposition coalition Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) were suspended late April, security forces fired gunshots and tear gas to disperse protesters in Nyala, South Darfur 4 May. TMC 7 May said it wanted Sharia law to guide legislation during transition. FFC 12 May called for civilian-headed transitional structure and escalation of protests; protesters expanded checkpoints outside army HQ in capital Khartoum, site of sit-in protest. Armed actors wearing uniforms of paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) 13 May opened fire on protesters in Khartoum, reportedly killing five; TMC and RSF denied responsibility. Talks resumed same day and by 15 May two sides agreed that transitional period before elections would last three years and agreed on duties of sovereign, executive and legislative councils, but failed to agree on composition and control of sovereign council. Security forces in RSF uniforms again shot at protesters 15 May; TMC head General Abdel-Fattah Burhan suspended talks until protesters removed barricades around sit-in. Talks resumed 19 May but made no breakthrough, and FFC called for two-day general strike. Thousands of public and private sector workers heeded call 28-29 May; in solidarity with protesters, workers at several key institutions including central bank, Port Sudan and oil ministry refused to work and flights out of Khartoum’s main airport were suspended 28 May. Tens of thousands protested in Khartoum 30 May and military called protesters’ sit-in a threat to stability. Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia continued to give TMC strong support: General Burhan visited Cairo 25 May and Abu Dhabi 26 May and his deputy General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, RSF head, met Saudi Crown Prince in Jeddah 24 May.

Africa

Sudan

Military’s ouster of then President Bashir 11 April after almost 30 years in power led to tense stalemate between military council and protest movement leaders over composition and leadership of joint civilian-military body to oversee transition. Thousands marched in capital Khartoum 6 April – anniversary of 1985 popular uprising – and began sit-in outside military headquarters, resisting security forces’ attempts to break up crowds. Army adopted policy of non-intervention and junior and mid-ranking military defied orders to disperse protesters; some soldiers reportedly clashed with members of National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS). Police 9 April also adopted non-intervention policy. First VP and Defence Minister Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf 11 April announced ouster and arrest of Bashir, creation of Transitional Military Council (TMC) to rule for up to two years before elections, suspension of constitution, three-month state of emergency and curfew. Protesters rejected curfew and Ibn Auf as ruler, and demanded immediate transition to civilian rule. Next day Ibn Auf resigned and was replaced by Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Burhan. Burhan 13 April announced overhaul of military leadership, notably head of Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” appointed TMC deputy chair. Salah Gosh resigned as NISS head 13 April. Bashir reportedly transferred to prison 17 April and next day two of Bashir’s brothers arrested. African Union 15 April gave TMC fifteen days to hand over power to civilians to avoid Sudan’s suspension; summit of several African leaders chaired by Egyptian President Sisi in Cairo 23 April gave military leaders three months. Protest leaders led by Sudanese Professionals Association late April engaged TMC in talks on formation of joint transitional council, but said protests would continue until TMC accepted to form civilian-led transitional body.

Africa

Sudan

President Bashir hardened repression of continued nationwide protests calling for him to step down. Dozens of activists and senior members of opposition National Umma Party (NUP) arrested 10 March; emergency court sentenced NUP deputy chief Mariam al-Mahdi to a week in prison; appeals court 13 March released her. PM Mohammed Taher Eyla 13 March announced new cabinet; most new ministers belong to ruling National Congress Party (NCP). NCP 30 March suspended indefinitely its general convention planned for April at which party was to elect new chief after Bashir handed leadership to his deputy 1 March. State news service 17 March said govt had secured $300mn in loans to address economic crisis; $230mn from Arab Monetary Fund and $70mn Arab Trade Financing Programme, both based in United Arab Emirates. U.S. Congressional delegation in capital Khartoum 16 March held series of meetings with govt officials including head of National Intelligence and Security Services Salah Gosh, opposition, civil society, journalists and rights defenders; called for release of political prisoners. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov during his visit to Khartoum 17 March said Russia would stand by Bashir.

Africa

Sudan

In response to continued protests that began mid-Dec, President Bashir declared state of emergency giving freer rein to security forces and raising risk of more violent crackdown against protesters in March. Bashir 22 Feb declared state of emergency, dissolved cabinet and sacked all eighteen provincial governors to replace them with army and intelligence officials. Bashir’s announcement differed considerably from what intelligence chief Salah Gosh hours before said Bashir would say, namely that he would step down as head of ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and cease attempts to change constitution so that he could run for president again in 2020. Security forces 23 Feb stormed doctors’ complex, fired tear gas and detained several; dozens of other protest and opposition leaders detained 22-23 Feb. Authorities 25 Feb banned unlicensed gatherings and protests, 26 Feb established emergency prosecutors and courts across country; over 800 reportedly put on trial 28 Feb. Bashir 1 March handed leadership of ruling NCP to deputy head, Ahmed Mohamed Haroun, until party’s next general conference. U.S. Sec State Pompeo 14 Feb told media that, if there was a transition, U.S. hoped Sudanese people and not outsiders would lead it. Special Assistant to U.S. President Cyril Sartor 18 Feb met Sudanese officials as part of discussions on U.S.-Sudan dialogue and reportedly told officials that U.S. could propose resolution to UN Security Council to defer Bashir’s case at International Criminal Court, if he agreed to step down.

Africa

Sudan

Security services responded with greater brutality to continued protests across country calling for President Bashir to step down. Security services 6 Jan arrested a number of prominent academics from Khartoum University. Despite Bashir’s 9 Jan speech blaming rebels from Darfur and outside powers for unrest, further protests reported 13 Jan in Khartoum North, Wad Medani, capital of Gezira state and Nyala, main city in South Darfur and 22 Jan in Khartoum and Omdurman. Security forces reportedly used live rounds and tear gas to disperse protests and targeted medical practitioners providing care to injured protesters. Central Committee of Sudanese Doctors 20 Jan called for general strike after security forces killed one doctor 17 Jan and carried out repeated attacks on hospitals. Authorities 25, 26 and 28 Jan arrested six journalists covering protests. After intelligence chief 29 Jan ordered release all detained in recent incidents, authorities released 186 protestors. Army 30 Jan said it would not let state collapse. Human rights groups claim at least 40 killed and 2,000 detained. Govt 31 Jan reopened border with Eritrea, shut for a year to combat trafficking of weapons and foodstuffs.

Africa

Sudan

Amid mounting anger over economic crisis, protests broke out in north east and swiftly spread to 28 cities and towns across country; security forces’ brutal response reportedly left up to 37 people dead. Protests began 19 Dec in town of Atbara in north east and quickly spread. Protesters called for President Bashir (in power since 1989) to step down and in several places set fire to local headquarters of ruling party. Intelligence services ordered internet shutdown and closed down a number of newspapers. Authorities from 22 Dec arrested two dozen opposition leaders, closed schools and universities to prevent students taking part. U.S., UK and Norway 24 Dec expressed concern over govt’s excessive use of force against demonstrators and UN Secretary-General Guterres 28 Dec called on govt to investigate deaths of protesters. Parliament 4 Dec backed constitutional amendment to extend presidential term limits, allowing President Bashir to run again in elections planned for 2020. Armed opposition groups Justice and Equality Movement and Sudan Liberation Movement-Minni Minnawi 10 Dec signed pre-negotiation agreement with govt to resume talks in Jan on basis of Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD). African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (led by former South Africa President Thabo Mbeki) 9-12 Dec convened in Addis Ababa to start consultation with Sudanese parties on revision of roadmap on adopting new constitution and on national elections scheduled for 2020; consultations suspended as they excluded political opposition groups, including Sudanese Congress Party. Senior security personnel met U.S. counterparts to increase cooperation, discussions included those on potential “five-point plan +1” to improve adherence to human rights. Bashir 16 Dec visited Syria for first time since March 2011. Bashir 18 Dec received Saudi delegation in Khartoum and pledged continued support to Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

Africa

Sudan

U.S. media mid-Nov reported that U.S. State Department had signalled to Sudanese officials that U.S. was open to dropping Sudan’s designation as “state sponsor of terrorism” if latter made progress in six areas, including expanding counter-terrorism efforts, ceasing fighting with rebels and working toward peace talks, and severing ties with North Korea. In south Darfur, fighting renewed between paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and rebels of Sudanese Liberation Army faction led by Abdel Wahid (SLA-AW) in Jebel Marra region; several civilians reportedly killed 13 Nov in RSF attacks in Deribat area, SLM-AW 25 Nov claimed that it killed eighteen RSF troops when it repelled attack led by govt forces in Feina area. Sudan and Egypt 25 Nov agreed to set up joint military patrols on their borders with Libya.

Africa

Sudan

Following meeting between Presidential Assistant Faisal Ibrahim and Thabo Mbeki, head of African Union High-Level Implementation Panel on Sudan, govt 17 Oct expressed readiness to resume repeatedly stalled negotiations with political opposition and armed rebels.

Africa

Sudan

To alleviate economic crisis, President Bashir 9 Sept dissolved govt and appointed new PM, Motazz Moussa, formerly minister of irrigation and electricity; ruling National Congress Party (NCP) said number of ministries would be reduced from 31 to 21. Although constitution allows maximum of two presidential terms, NCP 21 Sept said it had chosen Bashir as its presidential candidate to run for third elected term in 2020 elections. Govt 27 Sept agreed to UN proposal to deliver aid to conflict affected Two Areas (Blue Nile and South Kordofan states). Bashir brokered new peace deal between South Sudanese President Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa 12 Sept (see South Sudan).

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