CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Sudan

Three rebel groups in Darfur (Sudan Liberation Movement faction led by Minni Minnawi, Justice and Equality Movement and Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional Council) extended for three months unilateral cessation of hostilities in Darfur region 8 Aug. Sudan and Ethiopia 16 Aug agreed to withdraw their troops from each other’s territory and deploy joint forces to combat terrorism and human trafficking. Govt early Aug handed over to U.S. embassy in Khartoum second batch of proposals on normalisation of relations with U.S. and its removal from list of states sponsoring terrorism.

Africa

Sudan

Govt 12 July said it had extended unilateral ceasefire with rebels in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile states until end of year. Egyptian President Sisi visited Khartoum 19-20 July in bid to strengthen bilateral relations. Opposition National Umma Party 1 July said Egyptian authorities had denied its leader Sadiq al-Mahdi re-entry into Egypt, where he had been living in self-imposed exile.

Africa

Sudan

Sporadic fighting continued between govt forces and Sudanese Liberation Army faction led by Abdel Wahid (SLA-AW) in Jebel Marra region of Central Darfur. Govt reportedly mobilised up to 2,000-strong force of Rapid Support Forces militia and Sudan Armed Forces to retake positions from SLA-AW in Jebel Marra raising possibility of more fighting in coming months. Amid ongoing drawdown of UN-African Union Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID), UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix 11 June proposed to close all UNAMID bases within two years but reinforce and expand mission’s presence in Jebel Marra. Govt 7 June also advocated for UNAMID drawdown, arguing it is able to provide security and stability there. UN Security Council 29 June voted to extend current UNAMID mandate until 13 July citing insecurity. Ahead of general elections in 2020, Sudan Council of Ministers 10 June approved draft election law reducing number of seats in parliament from 450 to 300 and increasing subnational state representation from two MPs to three; draft to be ratified by National Assembly in Oct. Former opposition party, now member of National Consensus Govt, Popular Congress Party 16 June said law did not reflect opinions of consensus govt. Following talks hosted by President Bashir in Khartoum, S Sudanese President Kiir and his former first VP turned rebel leader Riek Machar signed framework peace agreement 27 June (see South Sudan).

Africa

Sudan

After German-led peace talks collapsed in April, two Darfuri rebel groups involved, Justice and Equality Movement and Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) faction led by Minni Minnawi, 7 May extended their unilateral ceasefires for three months. SLM faction led by Abdel Wahid, not party to talks, clashed sporadically with govt forces late April-early May and late May in Jebel Marra area of Darfur. Govt reportedly massed forces in South and Central Darfur for renewed offensive on Jebel Marra before end of dry season (end-June). Economic situation worsened with fuel shortages starting late April; govt 2 May said it had run out of strategic fuel reserves, but 7 May said Saudi Arabia would provide Sudan with oil at preferential rates for five years. President Bashir 14 May reshuffled cabinet, appointing new foreign, oil and interior ministers. In talks on Ethiopia’s construction of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Nile River held in Addis Ababa 15-16 May, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan agreed to set up technical team to consult on filling of dam’s reservoir and that heads of state would meet every six months. Earlier talks 5 May ended in stalemate.

Africa

Sudan

President Bashir 10 April ordered release of remaining dozens of political prisoners detained during Jan-Feb economic protests. Bashir 19 April dismissed Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour after he questioned non-payment of salaries to diplomats over six months. Talks between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia over latter’s building of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Nile 4-5 April ended without agreement on any issues. Egypt 19 April said Ethiopia and Sudan had not responded to its invitation to resume talks in Cairo. Peace talks in Berlin 16-17 April between govt and two Darfuri rebel groups – Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) faction led by Minni Minnawi and Justice and Equality Movement – broke down after parties failed to agree framework for further talks. Sporadic clashes continued throughout April in Jebel Marra region of Darfur between govt forces and two rebel groups, SLM faction led by Abdel Wahid and SLM-Transitional Council.

Africa

Sudan

Govt and Egypt took steps to reduce tensions, which flared late Dec-early Jan, but points of contention remained. Govts 2 March exchanged detainees arrested for illegally crossing disputed border areas. Sudanese ambassador to Egypt – recalled to Khartoum early Jan – returned to Cairo 5 March. Sudanese and Egyptian security chiefs in Khartoum 10 March discussed border security and terrorism, and Egypt’s alleged lobbying of Gulf states not to grant Khartoum financial relief. President Bashir and Egyptian President Sisi in Cairo 20 March discussed issues including status of disputed border region Halayeb, Sudan’s position on Ethiopia’s dam under construction on Nile river, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), and alleged Sudanese support for Egyptian Islamist opposition groups, particularly Muslim Brotherhood. However, countries still hold divergent positions on key issues in GERD dispute – Khartoum wants to increase its use of Nile waters – and changes in leadership in Ethiopia adds uncertainty. Economic situation continued to worsen.

Africa

Sudan

Govt and rebel faction Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu met for talks in Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa 1-2 Feb, first since Oct 2016, but failed to secure cessation of hostilities agreement, hitting deadlock over humanitarian access to Two Areas (S Kordofan and Blue Nile states). SPLM-N al-Hilu 30 Jan extended its unilateral ceasefire for four months in Two Areas ahead of talks. Rival SPLM-N faction led by Malik Agar protested exclusion from talks. Protests against bread price rises continued, mainly in Khartoum; after EU and U.S. embassies condemned harsh govt crackdown, govt 19 Feb released 80 detained protesters, though hundreds remained imprisoned. Govt delegation met Egyptian counterparts in Cairo 8 Feb further de-escalating tensions between countries which flared late Dec-early Jan and agreeing to curb hostile media campaigns, set up mechanisms for high-level dialogue and reaffirm commitment to principles agreed March 2015 regarding dispute over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

Africa

Sudan

Simmering tensions between Sudan and Egypt, mostly over disputed Halayeb border region and alleged Sudanese hosting of Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood members, escalated after Turkish President Erdoğan visited Khartoum end Dec. During visit, it was reported that Sudan gave Saukin Island on Red Sea coast, site of historic Ottoman Port, to Turkey. This prompted speculation that Turkey intends to build naval base on island, which would further fuel competition for influence on Horn’s Red Sea coast between Saudi Arabia and its allies, including Egypt, and Qatar and its ally Turkey. Following reports that Egypt had deployed troops to Sawa military base in western Eritrea near border with Sudan 4 Jan (which Eritrean President Afwerki denied 15 Jan), Sudan same day recalled its ambassador to Egypt, and 5 Jan said it had deployed troops to Kassala region in east near border with Eritrea and reportedly closed border with Eritrea, but it remained unclear if Sudan took these measures in response to alleged Egyptian troop deployments. In apparent attempt to defuse diplomatic escalation, President Bashir and Egyptian President Sisi met in Addis Ababa on margins of African Union summit 27 Jan and pledged to establish joint ministerial committee to handle bilateral challenges. Govt’s late Dec release of 2018 budget, including cut in flour subsidy that tripled price of bread, triggered nationwide protests early Jan; security forces cracked down on protestors violently across country and arrested around 100 participants, including opposition Sudanese Congress Party leader Omar al-Digar, one protester reported killed.

Africa

Sudan

President Bashir visited Chad 1-2 Dec officially to celebrate Chad’s national day but in reality to shore up relations with Chadian President Déby; talks reportedly focused on security in border region and ongoing detention in Khartoum of Darfur militia leader Musa Hilal, father of Déby’s wife Amani, arrested Nov after clashes in North Darfur with pro-govt militia Rapid Support Forces. Bashir imposed six-month state of emergency in Kassala state in east and North Kordofan state in centre 30 Dec reportedly to support disarmament campaign.

Africa

Sudan

Govt and U.S. continued taking steps toward greater cooperation after Oct partial lifting of sanctions: U.S. Deputy Sec State Sullivan in Khartoum mid-Nov reportedly set out new roadmap for engagement; U.S. welcomed govt’s renewed commitment to sever ties with North Korea. Tensions between militias in Darfur increased throughout month after govt-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) late Oct forced Musa Hilal’s Border Guards from lucrative Jebel Amir mining district as part of govt disarmament campaign. Following heavy clashes between RSF and Border Guards, Hilal captured in Mistariah, North Darfur 27 Nov and taken to Khartoum.

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