CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Month saw continued “walk to work” protests against soaring fuel and food prices, and govt crackdown on protesters. Police 10 May detained opposition leader Norbert Mao, 12 May dispersed thousands protesting inauguration of President Museveni for fourth presidential term, leaving 5 dead. Opposition Forum for Democratic Change leader Kizza Besigye, returning from hospitalisation in Kenya for injuries sustained in protests late Apr, placed under house arrest 19 May. Museveni 24 May appointed Amama Mbabazi as PM, despite bribery allegations against him. Police 16 May arrested 4 Somalis suspected of being al-Shabaab members, 2 days after militant group warned of further attacks.
Month dominated by govt clampdown on “walk to work” protests initiated by opposition leaders to demonstrate against rising food and fuel costs. At least 2 killed, dozens injured 29 Apr as violence erupted in Kampala between troops and protesters following news that police 28 Apr violently arrested Kizza Besigye, leader of opposition Forum for Democratic Change; President Museveni 30 Apr vowed to “defeat” wave of demonstrations, unrest.
Following 18 Feb presidential and parliamentary elections, opposition demonstrations broke out 9 March protesting poll outcome; security forces responded, no casualties reported. Human Rights Watch 23 March released report urging govt to investigate special police unit, alleging unit responsible for cases of torture, extortion, extrajudicial killings.
Election Commission 20 Feb announced incumbent President Museveni winner of 18 Feb presidential election with 68% of vote. Main opposition leader Kizza Besigye won 26%, rejected results claiming election was “total farce”. Head of EU observer mission noted “severe compromise” of level playing field; U.S. 22 Feb noted diversion of govt resources for partisan campaigning and heavy deployment of security forces on election day but said polls “reflect will of the people”. Suspected National Resistance Movement sympathisers 23 Feb attacked at least 6 journalists covering Kampala mayoral election causing serious injury.
Month saw reports of violence, harassment of opposition candidates, corruption, intimidation ahead of 18 Feb presidential election. High Court 25 Jan threw out opposition’s Dec petition for Election Commission to issue voter cards to 4 million newly registered voters saying other identification can be used. Opposition leader Kizza Besigye 12 Jan threatened to pull out of elections if process became “hopeless”. Electoral commission chair Badru Kiggundu 19 Jan identified 9 militia groups including “Kiboko squads” and “Black mamba” threatening to disrupt process.
Security stepped up as suspected al-Shabaab bomb blast 20 Dec targeting Kampala-bound bus from Nairobi left 2 dead, several injured; President Museveni 21 Dec vowed terrorist attacks would not deter AMISOM troop role in Somalia.
Campaigning commenced 1 Nov between 8 candidates competing in 18 Feb presidential elections. Human Rights Watch called on govt to ensure non-violent campaign, free media. Nomination of parliamentary candidates underway starting 22 Nov amid allegations of military intimidation of opposition candidates, particularly in Karamoja region. Following May passing of U.S. legislation on LRA, U.S. 24 Nov announced comprehensive strategy supporting multilateral efforts to eliminate LRA threat, improve civilian protection, support recovery of northern Uganda.
Electoral commission 25 Oct approved candidacy of President Museveni and opposition Forum for Democratic Change leader Kizza Besigye to contest 18 Feb 2011 presiden- tial election; 27 Oct announced total of 8 contenders.
Ruling party National Resistance Movement (NRM) primary elections for parliamentary and local candidates suspended late Aug and again early Sept amid widespread irregularities, poor organisation, alleged voter intimidation and violent clashes in parts of country. President Museveni reacted angrily, accused NRM officials of self-interest. Opposition Forum for Democratic Change 20 Sept primaries also marred by irregularities. Defence Minister Crispus Kiyonga met with Congolese counterpart 18-19 Sept, discussed operations against LRA and Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in DRC, agreed on continued cooperation to neutralise threat, offered use of military academies to train DRC troops. In leaked letter to UN, FM Kutesa described mapping report leaked Aug as “deeply flawed”; warned publication could threaten commitment to peacekeeping missions in Africa. Ambassador to UN Ruhakana Rugunda said Uganda’s commitment to Africa would not be derailed.
Chief of Military Intelligence (CMI) James Mugira 12 Aug presented 4 Ugandan men described as “masterminds” of al-Shabaab 11 July bomb attacks on Kampala. Search still on for additional accomplices; capital remains on “high-alert” although CMI said another attack “unlikely”. Human Rights Watch 11 Aug issued report citing 697 LRA abductions over past 18 months in CAR and DRC, claiming many civilians brutally killed, urging U.S.-led strategy on civilian protection (see CAR).
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