CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Somali Islamist militia al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for 11 July bomb attacks in Kampala which resulted in 85 deaths and at least 60 injured, confirming longstanding fears of regional threat posed by al-Shabaab. Attacks came after several explicit warnings al-Shabaab would “bring war to Uganda and Burundi” in revenge for troop contribution to AMISOM supporting Somali transitional govt. More than 20 suspects, including Pakistani, Ethiopian and Somali nationals arrested in following days, majority released 22 July; 3 arrested Kenyans 30 July charged with murder, terrorism, 10 counts of attempted murder. President Museveni 15 July pledged continued commitment to AMISOM, pronounced Uganda’s intent to go on the offensive against al-Shabaab. Close to 2,000 Rwandan Hutu refugees forcefully repatriated to Rwanda 14 July with Rwandan police participation; 2 killed. UNHCR 16 July condemned violation of refugee rights; govt 20 July defended action claiming those repatriated had no refugee status and posed security risk.
President Museveni 2 June rejected opposition calls for new electoral commission chief; urged donors to focus on economic aid, not 2011 elections. Opposition 9 June demonstrated in Kampala; president of opposition FDC Kiiza Besigye reportedly severely beaten by police and pro-govt gang Kiboko Squad. Army chief Gen Nyakairima 15 June said police would “crush” violent demonstrations. Voter registration ended 18 June after 4-day extension, 3.5mn registered. Army reportedly on high alert after 16 killed in DRC by suspected Ugandan ADF rebels, inactive since 2008. Army 31 May killed 16 LRA rebels in eastern CAR; CAR media claimed 18 Ugandan soldiers killed 13 June by LRA. Govt 15 June said 10 soldiers ambushed and killed in eastern CAR in May; govt claimed “assailants Sudanese Janjaweed, not LRA”. Govt 18 June announced $100mn compensation fund for LRA victims in Northern Uganda.
Voter registration started 3 May; enrolment deadline postponed from 15 May to 4 June due to low turnout and delays; President Museveni 9 May acknowledged delays but refuted accusations of political repression in run-up to vote. Parliament 19 May rejected opposition amendment bill to limit presidential mandates, exclude army from parliament and reform electoral commission; opposition 20 May threatened to boycott polls unless reforms adopted. HRW 20 May reported 74 killed in LRA Feb attack in NE DRC; 2 Sudanese govt officials killed 16 May in Western Equatorial State; at least 38 civilians including 2 ICRC staff killed in CAR during month. OCHA-chief Holmes 2 May said UN will investigate massacres; Ugandan army 6 May demanded budget raise to fight LRA; CAR army 18 May deployed 600 troops in SE to protect civilians.
LRA political commissar Okello “Mission” arrested 31 March; Okello alleged Sudanese govt supported LRA with food, medicine and passage through Darfur; Okello claimed LRA chief Kony in Eastern DRC, estimated 200 LRA troops remained. Karimojong Jie warriors clashed 8 Apr with army during cattle raid in Kaabong (North); reported casualties vary between 14 and 41.
At least 2 killed in 17 March clashes between Baganda community members and police after 16 March fire destroyed royal Buganda mausoleum in Kasubi. Demonstrators accused govt of arson intended to weaken Buganda kingdom, denied by President Museveni. Washington-based Enough Project 10 March reported LRA leader Kony in Darfur with Khartoum’s support; Museveni 13 March echoed allegations; Khartoum refuted. Museveni expressed opposition to ICC trial of Kony, saying “here we shall hang him but…[in] The Hague they will just put him in a hotel”. LRA attacks continued in CAR, DRC over month.
President Museveni 28 Feb placed presidential guard under elite special forces unit commanded by son Lt Col Muhoozi; opposition groups condemned as move to prepare succession. Major political parties 5 Feb signed memorandum of understanding on elections conduct ahead of 2011 polls. President Museveni 8 Feb announced commencement of 2nd phase of Northern Uganda reconstruction fund involving disbursement of $140m to 40 north and eastern districts. Attacks by LRA forces continued southeast CAR late month.
Govt 4 Jan blocked planned demonstration by 4 major opposition parties part of newly formed alliance, Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC), protesting Sept ban of CBS radio station and calling for replacement of election commission; govt cited lack of required notification. IPC promised further “surprise” rallies. 33 IPC women arrested 18 Jan following another attempt to demonstrate. President Museveni endorsed by ruling NRM as party candidate for 2011 presidential polls.
Police 6 Dec forcefully dispersed opposition FDC rally in Hoima in west, gathered to receive party leader Kizza Besigye, considered President Museveni’s main opponent in 2011 elections. Opposition groups (excl. Democratic Party) 16 Dec announced intention to field single presidential candidate. UN Human Rights Commissioner Pillay 21 Dec reported some 1,300 civilians killed in “carefully synchronised” LRA killings between Dec 2008 and June 2009 in E Congo and S Sudan, urged international community bring LRA leaders before ICC; further brutal LRA attacks and mutilations reported in DRC from late Nov, also further 5 surrender. Govt claimed to have killed top LRA commander Bok Abudema in CAR 1 Jan. U.S. late Nov passed legislation recommending U.S. govt develop new strategy to confront LRA.
Parliament 27 Nov passed controversial amendment to land act following trenchant opposition from Buganda Kingdom representatives, who allege law aims to curb region’s autonomy. Ugandan special forces continued operations against LRA rebels in neighbouring states, 17 Nov claiming to have killed LRA commander Okello Okutti in southeast CAR and reporting surrender of further 34 fighters, including senior commander Charles Arop, in northeast DRC. Further reports of killings, raids and abductions by suspected LRA rebels in southeast CAR, northeast DRC, S Sudan’s Nzara county.
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