Chief mediator Machar 30 Nov said rebel LRA leader Kony again refused to sign final peace deal and reiterated condition that ICC warrants be lifted first. Followed earlier statements by LRA spokesperson that rebels ready to sign, after mediation team 6 Nov set 30 Nov deadline and demanded cessation of cross-border attacks by suspected LRA rebels. Govt of South Sudan threatened to “finish off” rebels if deadline missed, while President Museveni promised to resume LRA food supplies as goodwill gesture. In west, peace talks between ADF rebels and govt opened 14 Nov after decade-long insurgency. UN announced over 14,500 refugees fled across border from DRC since Aug (see DRC).

Pressure mounted for military action against LRA rebels, but no progress towards concluding peace deal. Ban on aid deliveries to LRA strongholds in the north remained in place, prompting LRA leadership to claim govt reneging on Apr pledges. South Sudan leader Salva Kiir 8 Oct demanded chief mediators Riek Machar and UN envoy Chissano provide timeframe for deal before “other options” pursued. Vicious attacks, abductions by reported LRA rebels from DRC bases continued: at least 6 killed in 18-19 Oct raids near Dungu, DRC mid-month; UN said up to 50,000 displaced, some 50 killed, scores abducted since mid-Sept. ICC renewed call for arrest of LRA leadership, questioned DRC efforts to execute warrants.

LRA continued to evade signature of final peace deal, on hold since April. Early month, Kinshasa with UN mission (MONUC) support began deploying hundreds of troops near LRA bases in north DRC, while Kampala 10 Sept called on DRC for stronger action in line with June cooperation agreement. In statements 11, 13 Sept, LRA said recent DRC build-up posed new barrier to LRA leader Joseph Kony signing final deal; promised resistance, ruled out disarmament until issue of ICC arrest warrants against LRA leadership “resolved”. Food supplies to LRA suspended since May. Head of Ugandan war crimes court, formed in May, stated govt forces (UPDF) cannot be tried before court under terms of Juba peace deal.

UN envoy Joaquim Chissano 17 Aug reported LRA leader Joseph Kony ready to sign final peace agreement on condition of meeting chief mediator Riek Machar; govt ruled out further talks 19 Aug. Kony said 22 Aug no deal until ICC arrest warrant lifted; Chissano claimed ICC negotiations ongoing. Kony failed to attend 24 Aug meeting with LRA negotiators and Chissano; U.S. applied personal sanctions to Kony 28 Aug. Govt 6 Aug started implementing certain Juba Peace Agreement provisions, including IDP resettlement, ceasing military activities in north. UPDF said 2 Aug will deploy along Sudanese border to prevent harassment of locals by alleged SPLA soldiers. Reports emerged that former pro-govt militias and UPDF responsible for recent murders in north, claiming to be LRA, using LRA weapons. Division deepened in ruling NRM over Museveni’s fourth term bid, launched 5 Aug; 4 opposition parties signed coalition agreement 4 Aug.

Peace process continued to falter as deal still without LRA leader Joseph Kony signature. Kony 16 July made fresh demands on conditions for talks, following call for security and supplies; govt granted LRA negotiator James Obita amnesty 31 July. President Museveni reiterated 23 July no further negotiations, as defence chief threatened military action. South Sudanese President Salva Kiir called for continued negotiations, as South Sudanese lawmakers 7 July recommended ICC defer warrants against LRA. Reports emerged that UPDF implicated in June, July attacks in Southern Sudan, some previously blamed on LRA; Uganda rejected claims. State media 20 July reported Museveni to run for fourth term in 2011; tensions rising within ruling NRM. Rebel Allied Democratic Forces requested peace talks 29 July to end 12-year insurgency in west; govt agreed.

Further breakdown in peace process with new LRA attacks reported and regional armed forces threatening offensive, following LRA leader Joseph Kony repeated failure to sign final deal. Uganda, DR Congo, South Sudan military chiefs early June agreed to attack Kony, with MONUC support, if deal not signed. Kony broke silence with 22 June radio interview calling for resumption of talks. Govt welcomed step but said no re-opening of negotiations. South Sudan VP and mediator Machar confirmed commitment to negotiated settlement, urged implementation of non-controversial aspects of deal; 30 June said Ugandan troops should leave Sudan. 8 LRA negotiators reportedly resigned 27 June accusing Kony of frustrating peace efforts. LRA reportedly twice attacked south Sudanese soldiers, including 4 June barracks attack killing at least 20.

No progress on LRA peace deal. Leader Joseph Kony no-show at 10 May meeting on Congo-Sudan border with northern Ugandan elders, chief mediator Riek Machar; new LRA negotiator James Obita had suggested Kony might sign peace deal after Apr refusal. Impatience grew: Govt of Southern Sudan President Salva Kiir stated 22 May LRA must sign or will be forced to leave Sudan; ICC called for suspension of aid to LRA. Ugandan judiciary 23 May announced creation of new war crimes division of High Court. Rights group estimates at least 100 children abducted by LRA since Feb. DRC, Ugandan presidents agreed 11 May new border demarcation over oil-rich Lake Albert. Constitutional Court late month annulled law requiring police to approve public meetings, protests.

Peace precarious as LRA leader Kony failed to sign permanent deal, amid reports of multiple civilian abductions. Kony delayed 10 Apr signing, seeking guarantees of own safety, financial security and clarification on justice mechanism; chief LRA negotiator then “quit”, reportedly fired. Govt negotiators left talks 11 Apr. Unconfirmed reports of 9 rebels killed in early Apr LRA infighting over deal, including ICC-target and Kony deputy Okot Odhiambo. UN Envoy Chissano optimistic talks salvageable, but President Museveni said Kony “not serious”. Recent abductions reported in DR Congo, Sudan, Central African Republic claimed to be LRA by rights groups – some 350 allegedly kidnapped, including some 50 children. 3 journalists arrested 26 Apr for reports critical of govt.

Government-LRA peace talks moved haltingly toward completion, with LRA leader Joseph Kony reportedly en route end-March to Ri-Kwangba, DRC-Sudan border base, to sign final agreement. Penultimate agreement signed 26 March. Kony reportedly moved to Central African Republic (CAR) mid-month, violating ceasefire, amid reports of early March attacks on CAR towns (see CAR) and contact with main Chadian rebel leader Gen. Mahamat Nouri. Stalemate over ICC arrest warrants deepened as Kony vowed not to complete deal unless lifted: President Museveni suggested 11 March would ask ICC to “withdraw our complaint”, with final deal and if LRA faced traditional justice, rejected immunity guarantee. LRA delegation met ICC registry officials 10 March in Hague; ICC said procedural issues discussed.

Momentum building for government-LRA comprehensive peace agreement with signing of “permanent” ceasefire 23 Feb, disarmament accord 29 Feb; yet muted by reports of LRA truce violation and 27 Feb threats to withdraw from talks if ICC warrants against LRA leader Kony and 2 others not lifted. LRA request for government to intervene with UN over warrants followed 18 Feb accountability agreement stipulating creation of national court for major war crimes, traditional justice for lesser crimes. Reported movement of some 200 rebels from assembly point to Central African Republic (CAR) 18 Feb; village chief in north eastern DRC reported killed by LRA 12 Feb, CAR civilians killed 25 Feb.