CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
LRA and government publicly pledged to adhere to principles of expired ceasefire agreement and refrain from offensive operations. Most LRA commanders regrouped with leader Joseph Kony in DR Congo. Prospects for resumption of Juba peace talks, on hold since LRA withdrew January citing security concerns and questioning mediator’s partiality, improved marginally after UN Special Envoy Joaquim Chissano toured region and met Kony. Chissano announced preliminary discussions for mid-April. Uganda’s Internal Affairs Minister and chief mediator Rukhana Rugunda accompanied Chissano’s second visit and held first face-to-face discussion with Kony 10 March. Ugandan troops reported killing over 30 Allied Democratic Forces rebels near DRC border 28 March.
Peace talks on verge of collapse and threat of resumed conflict rose as LRA refused to return to Juba and rejected assembly areas of Owiny Ki-Bul and Ri-Kwangba as insecure. Ceasefire expired 28 February, with both parties threatening to resume violence if attacked. Rebels reportedly left jungle hideout in DR Congo and began moving into Central Africa Republic. With no support for LRA call to move talks from Juba, UN Special Envoy for LRA-affected areas, Joaquim Chissano, attempted to break deadlock by suggesting Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique and South Africa join talks to guarantee neutrality. President Museveni agreed to observers but LRA refused to have any talks involving either South Sudan VP Riek Machar or Juba location. LRA blamed for attacks and looting in South Sudan Eastern Equatoria state, including death of UN peacekeeper; LRA denied responsibility. Security in Karamojong region sharply deteriorated with deaths of 57 since 12 February when armed gang ambushed Ugandan soldiers involved in forcible disarmament of Karamojong rebels.
LRA withdrew from peace talks with Ugandan government in southern Sudan, demanding change in venue and replacement of South Sudan VP Riek Machar as chief mediator: claimed Sudanese President Omar Bashir’s pledge to eliminate LRA makes Sudan insecure, and that Machar is biased towards Uganda. LRA failed to gather at assembly areas designated by cessation of hostilities agreement by 16 January deadline, though neither party has called for its termination. LRA was accused by Ugandan army of killing 13 civilians in 3 ambushes in Southern Sudan. New UN special envoy for LRA-affected areas, Joaquim Chissano, who toured region and attempted to salvage talks, announced change of venue for talks.
Prospects for peace improved as Government and LRA signed renewed cessation of hostilities agreement 16 December: new 16 January assembly deadline, truce through end February 2007, talks to resume in January. Independent monitors found both sides violated earlier truce. Alternative communication channels between LRA leadership and government saw President Museveni speak with LRA deputy leader Vincent Otti and Acholi leaders travel to DR Congo to meet leader Kony. Museveni also arranged meeting between Kony and his estranged mother who reportedly called on Kony to give up armed struggle. International Criminal Court Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo requested UN peacekeepers based in DRC and Sudan help arrest Kony, while Museveni reiterated possibility of recourse to Ugandan justice system. Former Mozambique President Joaquim Chissano appointed UN envoy for LRA-affected areas. Human Rights Watch reported UPDF used “indiscriminate and excessive force” to disarm Karamojong in northeast. UNICEF reported 150 civilians killed by fighting between UPDF and Karmojong and 1,000 civilians displaced since clashes began in May.
Peace talks between government and Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) suspended by LRA 29 November, ostensibly for killing by Ugandan army (UPDF) of 3 rebels on way to assembly point: army denied involvement. Revised cessation of hostilities agreement had been signed 1 November to specify assembly points, provide for security and humanitarian assistance, and removal of UPDF from near assembly points; included 1 December deadline for LRA to collect at Owiny Ki-Bul and Ri-Kwangba, and subsequent resumption of talks. Negotiations plagued by dissatisfaction within LRA delegation and lack of monitoring mechanisms of LRA and UPDF. LRA leader Joseph Kony met with UN humanitarian chief Jan Egeland 11 November and asked for ICC indictments to be removed; Egeland asked for release of non-combatants, sick and wounded fighters: neither agreed. UN Human Rights Commissioner Louise Arbour urged Uganda to halt “forced disarmament” operations against semi- nomadic Karamoja warriors in northeast after 55 civilians killed early November.
Government and Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) talks in Juba, Southern Sudan, resulted in renewal of August cessation of hostilities agreement at month-end – just days after appeared near breakdown. Progress followed earlier walkout by LRA, which, fearing Ugandan army (UPDF) presence, departed Owiny Ki-Bul assembly site and later clashed with UPDF north of Juba. Meanwhile, 38 civilians brutally murdered near Juba 18 October: LRA initially blamed, but Southern Sudanese troops subsequently arrested armed men they said associated with Khartoum. Other violent incidents in South reported throughout month. President Museveni attended talks 21 October, but brief meeting with LRA delegation backfired when both sides traded barbs and LRA reps refused to shake Museveni’s hand. Government said would force closure of all IDP camps by year-end.
Peace process between government and LRA inched forward after 26 August ceasefire agreement. LRA leader Kony and deputy Otti remained in DR Congo despite agreement to move to assembly points in southern Sudan. Approx. 1,000 LRA fighters assembled at designated safe zones but LRA negotiators temporarily recalled after LRA claimed their fighters were under siege from Ugandan army. Third round of negotiations, mediated by Vice-President of South Sudan Riek Machar, got underway 28 September. President Museveni said would not assent to LRA demands to lift ICC war crimes indictments in favour of traditional justice system until LRA leaders “fully embrace” peace talks. Earlier in month LRA agreed to release 1,500 non-combatants and abductees but objected to government’s negotiating team on grounds its members lacked political credibility. No new date set for signing comprehensive peace agreement after 12 September deadline now seen as irrelevant following progress in talks and 26 August truce.
Government and LRA broke 4-week deadlock in Juba peace talks by signing truce 26 August. Under terms of deal, LRA have 3 weeks to assemble at designated safe zones in South Sudan, protected by SPLA, before proceeding to further talks. Stumbling blocks for further negotiations remain, including status of ICC arrest warrants, security guarantees for LRA leaders and substantial discrepancies between sides’ agendas. Government earlier refused to match 4 August ceasefire declared by LRA leader Kony, instead continuing attacks on LRA and seeking Kinshasa’s approval to attack LRA camps in northeast DRC. Reports indicated Kony might be seeking asylum in CAR.
Peace talks opened 14 July between LRA rebels and Ugandan government in Juba, Sudan. Rebel leader Kony and top commanders stayed away first round, fearing arrest, but met with government representatives 30 July in DRC border camp. Uganda refused ceasefire, demanding surrender in exchange for amnesty; rebels sought compensation, power sharing agreement and disbandment of national army. President Museveni extended deadline for agreement to 12 September, and government facilitated sidetalks between LRA and Acholi elders and rebels’ relatives along DRC border. In move to decrease internal tensions, Museveni invited opposition leaders including presidential runner-up Besigye – still on trial for treason – to discuss political situation; Besigye declined. EU election observer reported February elections fell short of international standards.
Government delayed entering into talks with LRA rebels brokered by South Sudan’s government in Juba, saying 14-man LRA delegation lacked capacity for serious negotiations. ICC insisted peace efforts should not impede arrest and prosecution of indicted rebel leaders, while South Sudan VP Machar said ICC should give peace process chance before any legal proceedings. Government ruled out direct negotiations with indicted rebels in line with ICC position, despite President Museveni’s May statement guaranteeing LRA chief Kony’s safety if he surrendered. First televised interview with Kony aired on BBC. Dozen LRA fighters killed in separate clashes with Ugandan and South Sudanese forces.
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