CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Small group of activists demonstrated 18 May in capital Kampala over “slow distribution” of govt relief food to vulnerable people amid COVID-19 crisis; police detained several activists, including prominent academic Stella Nyanzi over accusations of “inciting violence”. President Museveni same day said govt would start easing lockdown 2 June. Military 3 May said it had suspended rotation of troops deployed as part of peacekeeping mission in Somalia and training mission in Equatorial Guinea after Ugandan soldier in Somalia tested positive to COVID-19 late April. Following agreement with Rwanda to normalise relations late Aug, govt 15 May said it would release some 170 Rwandans from prison. High Court in Kampala 13 May declared illegal police orders barring musician-turned-opposition-leader Bobi Wine, who plans to run for president in 2021 elections, from holding concerts.
President Museveni 14 April extended COVID-19-related lockdown by 21 days until 5 May. Police 20 April arrested prominent journalist Samson Kasumba for allegedly making seditious statements, released him next day on police bond.
Ahead of 2021 general elections, President Museveni continued to use legal measures to suppress dissent and ward off key challengers, and Congolese gunmen launched cross-border raid in north west. Security forces 12 March arrested former intelligence chief and security minister Henry Tumukunde, who said 28 Feb he would run for president in 2021, for allegedly seeking Rwanda’s support to unseat Museveni; authorities 18 March charged Tumukunde with treason. Earlier in month, authorities 4 March placed journalist and filmmaker Moses Bwayo in custody pending bail hearing, after security forces arrested him late Feb on charges of unlawful assembly while he filmed documentary on musician-turned-opposition leader Bobi Wine, who plans to run for president in 2021. Police 14 March also detained Pastor Andrew Muwanguzi on charges of unlawful assembly for hosting Wine at his home in March 2019. Following petition filed by civil society groups and opposition in 2013, constitutional court 26 March overturned legislation granting police powers to prohibit public gatherings and protests. Gunmen, including Congolese militiamen, 6 March raided army post in north west at border with DR Congo (DRC), killing at least three soldiers. Defence and security officials 11 March met with counterparts from Burundi, DRC, Tanzania and Rwanda in Goma, DRC, to assess information exchange mechanisms to help stabilise eastern Congo. Amid COVID-19 pandemic, govt in March expelled over 300 Rwandans for allegedly spreading virus, 25 March suspended refugee arrivals for one month; Museveni 21 March closed borders and 30 March ordered fourteen-day lockdown.
Following agreement with Rwanda to normalise relations late Aug, govt took additional steps to mend ties with Kigali; harassment of opposition continued. In Angolan capital Luanda President Museveni and Rwandan President Kagame 2 Feb pledged to release each other’s nationals and to cease alleged support to non-state armed groups reportedly operating across their borders. Govt 18 Feb released thirteen Rwandans detained on espionage charges. Senior govt officials 14 Feb held third meeting with Rwandan counterparts in Rwandan capital Kigali to discuss Aug deal’s implementation. At Katuna-Gatuna border crossing 21 Feb, FM and Rwandan counterpart signed extradition treaty providing legal framework to exchange prisoners guilty of “subversive activities” in each other’s territory and same day agreed on 30-day timeframe for Kampala to investigate and act on Kigali’s accusations that armed groups hostile to Rwanda operate from Uganda, paving way for border to reopen if request is fulfilled. Musician-turned-opposition leader Bobi Wine, who plans to run for president in 2021 general elections, 21 Feb appealed to electoral commission to mediate talks with police, after latter prevented him from holding public meeting in Jan; Police 24 Feb fired tear gas and live ammunition to disperse Wine’s supporters in capital Kampala. Police 24 Feb fired tear gas to disperse supporters of opposition party Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) in Njeru town, 70km east of Kampala, same day reportedly prevented FDC president Kizza Besigye from leaving his hotel in nearby Jinja town.
Govt continued to repress opposition and took steps to normalise relations with Rwanda, while relations with Kenya soured over trade dispute. Police 6 Jan prevented musician-turned-opposition leader Bobi Wine from holding first public meeting following Dec announcement that he would run for president in 2021 general elections: police fired tear gas to disperse Wine’s supporters, detained him for staging allegedly illegal outdoor assembly instead of indoor gathering. Following agreement to normalise relations with Rwanda late Aug, military court in Kampala 7 Jan dropped espionage charges against nine Rwandans. In northern Rwanda near Ugandan border, security forces 18 Jan shot and killed one Ugandan and two Rwandans suspected of smuggling. Uganda-Kenya tensions rose after latter seized Ugandan milk shipments 27 Dec, 6 and 12 Jan on suspicion that they had been imported illegally. Ugandan govt 16 Jan said seizures contravened East African Community Customs Union Protocol, demanded Kenya immediately release shipments and cover any financial loss incurred.
Talks with Rwanda failed to ease tensions, and govt continued to repress opposition. Following agreement to normalise relations with Rwanda late Aug, high-level govt officials 13 Dec reached deadlock in second meeting with Rwandan counterparts in capital Kampala to discuss deal’s implementation. President Museveni 4 Dec led anti-corruption march in Kampala, drawing criticism from opposition who denounced Museveni’s record. Police same day prevented former president of opposition party Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) Kizza Besigye from holding his own anti-corruption march. Tensions rose between refugees and local communities in Adjumani district; host community 10 Dec blamed South Sudanese refugees for death of local man, 12 Dec killed one South Sudanese refugee in attack near Nyumanzi settlement. Refugees same day raided nearby villages of Linga, Jurumini, Maiciki, Ege, and Maiaeiciki in retaliation, leaving one local man dead. Musician-turned-opposition leader Bobi Wine 11 Dec said he would run for president in 2021 general elections.
Authorities cracked down on opposition and media and tensions rose between Uganda and Rwanda. In capital Kampala, police 4 Nov blocked supporters of opposition party Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) from reaching rally venue, prompting FDC supporters to march to their party headquarters. Police used tear gas, water cannon and live ammunition to disperse crowds and arrested some 50 FDC members including former FDC head Kizza Besigye. Police same day used tear gas and rubber bullets to break up demonstration of some 50 journalists protesting police brutality against journalists. Govt 14 Nov shut down more than 12,000 mostly local NGOs that had failed to register and obtain permits to operate. In Rwanda, Rwandan security forces 4 Nov shot and wounded Rwandan national returning from Uganda and 10 Nov shot dead two Ugandan citizens accused of smuggling tobacco into Rwanda. Ugandan govt 12 Nov sent protest note to Rwandan govt condemning killing of its nationals. Security forces 25 Nov arrested 35 Rwandan and four Congolese nationals in Kisoro in south west for illegally entering Uganda. President Museveni 7 Nov hosted peace talks in Entebbe between South Sudan’s warring parties who agreed to push back by 100 days deadline for formation of transitional govt.
Authorities continued to repress opposition. In capital Kampala, authorities 2 Oct cancelled concert by musician-turned-opposition leader Bobi Wine to mark 9 Oct Independence Day claiming it was unable to provide security; 3 Oct arrested six Bobi Wine supporters; 8 Oct placed Bobi Wine under house arrest to prevent him from performing and surrounded venue preventing concert. Bobi Wine next day slipped past security forces surrounding his residence and travelled to Kampala, where he evaded arrest. Police dispersed gatherings of opposition party Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), using live ammunition and tear gas in Butaleja and Busia 26 and 27 Oct. In north in Kotido district, raids by ethnic Turkana herders on ethnic Karamajong herders late Oct left unknown numbers dead. Army chiefs of Uganda, DR Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania 24-25 Oct met in DRC to discuss potential joint military operations against armed groups in eastern DRC. President Museveni 14 Oct attended peace talks between Sudanese govt and Sudanese rebels in South Sudanese capital Juba; 23 Oct met Russian President Putin at Africa-Russia summit in Sochi, Russia and signed deal for Russia to maintain and upgrade Uganda’s military hardware.
Govt continued to repress opposition and took steps to thaw relations with Rwanda. Police 7 Sept prevented opposition party Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) from holding rally in Mbale in east, used teargas and live bullets to disperse FDC supporters, and arrested three party supporters and senior FDC member Patrick Amuriat Oboi, who was later released. In Hoima county, ahead of 26 Sept parliamentary by-elections, security forces deployed in large numbers as President Museveni campaigned for candidate of ruling party National Resistance Movement (NRM) and opposition leaders, including musician-turned-opposition leader Bobi Wine and Amuriat, campaigned for FDC candidate Asinansi Nyakato. Police 25 Sept arrested twelve FDC supporters over alleged voter fraud. After NRM candidate was declared winner 27 Sept, Amuriat claimed NRM had rigged poll. Police 26 Sept arrested ten FDC officials in Kasese for holding illegal meeting. After Uganda and Rwanda agreed late Aug to normalise relations, govt 14 Sept released 32 Rwandans. High-level govt officials 16 Sept met Rwandan counterparts in Rwandan capital Kigali to discuss implementation of agreement. Museveni and Kenyan President Kenyatta 12 Sept signed agreement to help mitigate cross-border violence between pastoral communities in north east.
President Museveni and Rwandan President Kagame signed agreement to normalise relations, as govt continued to crack down on opposition. Museveni and Kagame 21 Aug signed agreement in Angolan capital Luanda committing to improve relations. Uganda 22 Aug blocked access to Rwandan news sites citing national security concerns, Rwanda next day blocked Ugandan news sites; Rwanda later that day said both governments had agreed to restore access. Court 2 Aug sentenced prominent academic to eighteen months’ prison for criticising Museveni, she has already served nine months. Musician-turned-opposition leader Bobi Wine 6 Aug appeared in court on treason charge for alleged involvement in stoning of Museveni’s motorcade during election rally in 2018; court charged Bobi Wine with intention to “annoy, alarm or ridicule” Museveni.
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