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Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

UN-backed dialogue to promote political consensus following late 2017 electoral crisis stalled over possible decree that would make final negotiation document a binding agreement; President of National Congress Mauricio Oliva 5 April said “it would be illegal” to create such a decree. Former opposition candidate Salvador Nasralla 10 April announced withdrawal from talks, saying govt had “no real political will for solving the electoral crisis created by the fraud”; 15 April reaffirmed his commitment to challenge Nov 2017 election results. Official data released 3 April showed homicide rate continuing to fall, with 16% fewer murders Jan-March 2018 than same period 2017. President Hernández 16 April announced creation of Transnational Anti-Mara Unit to strengthen state response to gang violence, consisting of agencies from Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico and U.S. Operation Dragon IV, led by attorney general’s office, 17 April arrested 284 people with alleged links to organised crime and involvement in corruption, extortion and trafficking. Organization of American States (OAS) Sec Gen Luis Almagro 13 April announced appointment of Luiz Antonio Guimarães Marrey as chief of support for Mission against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH); appointment not well received by govt, confirming growing tensions between OAS, Hernández and MACCIH. U.S. President Trump 3 April threatened to cut aid if govt did not stem migration to U.S..

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

UN-backed dialogue to promote cross-party consensus following late 2017 electoral crisis began to take shape. Ruling National Party and opposition group’s Liberal Party and Alliance against Dictatorship 14-18 March agreed on appointment of single mediator, protocol to prevent violence in political marches, commission to investigate human rights abuses during post-electoral violence, and decree to confer legal validity on final agreement; sides did not address key issues regarding reforms in electoral and accountability institutions. UN human rights office 13 March released report on human rights abuses during post-election period accusing security forces of “excessive force, including lethal force” leading to “killing and wounding of protesters”; registered at least 23 people killed during protests. EU Election Observation Mission 5 March presented its final report, including technical recommendations regarding vote count, invited all parties to take part in further political dialogue. Group of lawmakers 20 March presented appeal to Supreme Court alleging presence of Support Mission against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH) violates constitution; court admitted appeal. Alleged instigator of 2016 murder of environmental activist Berta Cáceres arrested 2 March.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

UN Secretary-General appointed three experts to conduct exploratory mission 6-9 Feb to evaluate conditions for dialogue between govt and opposition, following request from President Hernández to UN and Organization of American States (OAS). OAS tried to launch similar effort, but mission leader, former Guatemala President Álvaro Colom, was arrested 13 Feb. UN envoys concluded there were no conditions for dialogue in a 22 Feb report, invited main political forces to establish consensus over goals of any future dialogue mission. Opposition party Alianza Contra la Dictadura 11 Feb declared “total insurrection” and notified creation of 10,000 “commandos”, allegedly including armed cells. Hernández 15 Feb announced plan to revise criminal legislation and approve harsher sentences for gang members, amid rise in violence, with nine mass murders in 2018 killing over two dozen people. OAS-backed Support Mission against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH), which joined widespread condemnation of “immunity pact” passed by Congress in Jan shielding lawmakers from last three administrations from embezzlement charges, 5 Feb announced that 140 lawmakers and 30 NGOs are involved in embezzlement cases. In further setback in fight against corruption, MACCIH’s head Juan Jiménez Mayor resigned 15 Feb, alleging lack of support from OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Opposition continued to stage peaceful demonstrations, roadblocks and violent protests ahead of 27 Jan swearing-in ceremony for President Hernández, victor in contentious elections 27 Nov. Opposition leader Salvador Nasralla 2 Jan announced “month of protests”; 12 Jan rally in capital Tegucigalpa was particularly violent, with clashes between protesters and security forces reportedly leaving some 200 people injured; UN human rights chief criticised indiscriminate use of tear gas by security forces, while other human rights groups denounced excessive use of force, torture and mistreatment of detainees. NGO Casa Alianza 9 Jan reported post-election violence had killed 34, wounded 200 and led to 80 arrests. Hernández 14 Jan renewed his invitation to dialogue with opposition, which reportedly accepted offer 16 Jan on condition that an international mediator be present. Hernández sworn in for second term 27 Jan amid clashes between protesters and security forces outside Tegucigalpa national stadium, where ceremony took place. Organization of American States (OAS) anti-impunity commission in Honduras MACCIH threatened to leave the country after Honduras Congress 17 Jan passed new law that would impede investigations into misuse of public funds and limited powers of attorney general’s office to investigate corruption cases. Judge 24 Jan applied new legislation to release five lawmakers accused of corruption. Head of MACCIH Juan Jiménez Mayor 25 Jan denounced that the law would block investigations into 60 legislators, including President of Congress Mauricio Oliva. Authorities 2 Jan announced 26% reduction in homicide rate in 2017 compared to previous year, amounting to 3,791 people murdered, equivalent to 42.8 per 100,000 inhabitants, fourth highest in Latin America and Caribbean (after Venezuela, El Salvador and Jamaica).

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Political crisis following highly contentious 26 Nov general elections continued, with further deadly clashes between opposition supporters and police, and spike in criminal violence. Roadblocks, pot-banging protests, and attacks on businesses across country continued intermittently throughout Dec. Amnesty International 8 Dec reported at least fourteen killed in post-electoral repression; later reports ranged from at least seventeen killed to at least 30. Human rights experts from the UN and the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights condemned the killing of at least twelve in addition to scores injured and the detention of hundreds, including in military facilities, where some were reportedly subjected to torture and other forms of ill-treatment. Govt 1 Dec declared state of emergency and curfew, suspended it 6 Dec. Police declared two-day strike 4-5 Dec that ended after agreement with govt on wages. Electoral Supreme Court 17 Dec declared final results with incumbent President Hernández winner, prompting escalation in violent incidents. Opposition refused to accept result, but 20 Dec accepted invitation to talks as it tries to negotiate greater presence in key state institutions. Both EU and Organization of American States (OAS) electoral observation missions recorded abuses during electoral process; EU electoral mission 18 Dec declared allegations of fraud during vote count had no basis in fact; OAS 17 Dec recommended election be held again, contrary to position of U.S., which 22 Dec recognised Hernández victory. Anti-corruption unit in attorney general’s office and OAS-backed Mission Against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH) 12 Dec announced five lawmakers accused of embezzlement. Security Ministry 10 Dec confirmed fall in homicides Jan-Nov 2017 by 27% compared to same period in 2016.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Left-wing opposition alliance candidate and TV personality Salvador Nasralla 29 Nov refused to accept sharply contested results from 26 Nov general elections, amid allegations of fraud and massive protests from opposition supporters in several parts of country after Electoral Supreme Court decided to postpone final vote count until 1 Dec. At least one person was reported killed in clashes with police, with fears protests and violence could worsen; President Hernández expected to win by minimum margin after Nasralla had initially been on course for victory. Prior to election, opposition parties 23 Nov accused govt of launching “campaign of fear”, amid three alleged political killings, including National Party congressional candidate in Tegucigalpa murdered 5 Nov, and two political activists. Honduran Autonomous University 6 Nov announced 21.2% decrease in homicides in first six months of 2017, although violence against journalists continued, including late Oct killing of cameraman in Copán (west). Nasralla 14 Nov promised to revisit Hernández’s police reform process if he becomes president. International investigation team late Oct said March 2016 murder of environmental activist Berta Cáceres was product of coordinated plot with involvement by govt officials and international hydroelectric firm.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Ahead of 26 Nov general elections in which he is running for second term, President Hernández introduced two new security measures: 14 Oct closed San Pedro Sula prison following transfer of over 900 inmates to new jails with tighter security measures; 9 Oct signed milestone National Police Law and Police Career Law reform. New York Times 6 Oct published article describing how former leader of “Cachiros” drug trafficking group told U.S. authorities he paid bribes to many Honduran politicians, including Hernández during 2013 presidential campaign; Hernández’s administration 7 Oct denied accusations, 17 Oct said allegations concerned not just ruling party but “all [political] colours”. Honduras 26 Oct hosted internally displaced and refugees summit to adopt regional protection mechanisms to address humanitarian crisis in Northern Triangle countries.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

As campaigning began for 26 Nov general elections, Support Mission Against Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH) requested that Jan 2017 Law on Clean Politics be respected; Electoral Supreme Court 1 Sept declared that 48 candidates have open judicial cases against them. Electoral violence watchdog NGO 30 Aug reported nine candidates killed so far in campaign; 15 Sept electoral rally in capital by left-wing opposition alliance saw violent confrontations with police. Among other violent incidents, journalist killed in Northern Cortés department 13 Sept. Women for Peace Movement reported more than 250 women murdered to date in 2017. Long-awaited Anti-Corruption Courts inside attorney general’s office started operations 11 Sept. Police same day carried out anti-gang operation against financial structures belonging to MS-13 gang, arrested several police; U.S. court 5 Sept sentenced ex-president’s son Fabio Lobo, convicted of drug trafficking, to 24 years’ jail; MACCIH same day announced it was investigating ties between former President Lobo and “Los Cachiros” cartel.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Security ministry 3 Aug reported continuing homicide drop of 23% in first months of 2017. Authorities 30 July captured former Tegucigalpa police commander wanted on money laundering charges, and on 11 Aug Honduras Barrio 18 leader “Bóxer Hiuber”. Organization of American States-backed Mission Against Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH) and civil society group National Anti-Corruption Council 14 Aug denounced lower penalties for some corruption-related charges in new penal code that National Congress seeks to approve.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Govt 17 July announced homicides down 22% in first six months of 2017, with 2,159 registered cases. Govt 15 July shared migration statistics showing 22,546 nationals, including over 2,000 minors, deported back to Honduras during same period. Women’s groups 5 July declared “red alert” after eighteen women were killed over space of ten days. Govt 5 July told UN human rights chief that culprits behind March 2016 murder of environmentalist Berta Cáceres would be brought to justice; three environmental activists including Berta’s daughter attacked in central Honduras 30 June. Two European development banks 7 July pulled out of controversial dam project due to activist murders; Organization of American States-backed Mission Against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras announced investigation into Honduran energy company linked to project. Leader of Atlantic Cartel Wilter Blanco, previously extradited to U.S., 2 July confessed and agreed to collaborate with U.S. authorities.

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