Fears that SADC-brokered Sept 2011 roadmap for political transition unravelling as political figures reneged on agreements not to stand in forthcoming presidential elections; and transitional president Andry Rajoelina 27 May refused to step down as president as required by electoral law, prompting authorities to postpone planned 24 July elections aimed at bringing 4-year political crisis to an end. Following 14 April submission by former president Marc Ravalomanana’s Mouvance coalition of former first lady Lalao Ravalomanana as presidential candidate, Rajoelina also submitted application to run, arguing that Marc Ravalomanana promoting wife as proxy (both men had pledged not to run). In surprise move electoral court 3 May validated applications of 41 candidates to run for election including Lalao Ravalomanana, Rajoelina and former president Didier Ratsiraka – whose April return from exile was also conditional on him not participating in elections. SADC 10 May called on all 3 to withdraw, said its further support for elections contingent on compliance with roadmap, 26 May said it will not recognise election if one of them wins; SADC position on withdrawal and non-recognition endorsed at AU summit 25-26 May. UNSG Ban also called on the three candidates to withdraw from race. Malagasy Council of Churches (FFKM) 5 May concluded inter-Malagasy dialogue, recommended elections be postponed and called for new roadmap.

Malagasy Council of Churches (FFKM) 18 April launched national dialogue involving 180 political parties and entities to solve political crisis; UN, AU criticised FFKM mediation for broaching idea of postponing elections on first day of dialogue. Newly-created National Council for Reconciliation 10 April named General Rabotoarison to lead reconciliation efforts. Mouvance Ravalomanana coalition 14 April announced nomination of former first lady Lalao Ravalomanana as candidate for upcoming presidential elections; President Rajoelina’s Tanora malaGasy Vonona (TGV) party 6 April nominated outsider Edgard Razafindravahy as candidate. Head of gendarmerie said security forces need €2.5 million to ensure peaceful elections.

President Rajoelina 13 March announced legislative elections to be held 7 May.

National electoral commission (CENIT) 5 Feb announced legislative and presidential elections postponed from May to July; over 30 candidates expected to contest presidential polls. South Africa’s highest court 5 Feb rejected final appeal by former president Ravalomanana to have passport returned, effectively precluding him from attending regional meetings or returning to Madagascar. AU Peace and Security Council 16 Feb rejected request from govt to reintegrate country into organisation. Tensions in south continued: at least 10 killed, 1,200 cattle stolen, 153 houses burned in clashes between Dahalo cattle-raiders and villagers in Amboasary-sud district.

Transitional President Rajoelina 15 Jan said would not contest upcoming elections but will stand in 2018 polls; UNSG Ban 17 Jan welcomed decision, reiterated importance of upholding electoral calendar. President of Lower House Mamy Rakotoarivelo said Rajoelina hoping to set up a “Putin-Medvedev scheme” by supporting ally in presidential election in hope it will secure him nomination as PM.

SADC heads of state summit 8 Dec endorsed “ni- ni” option, meaning neither transitional President Rajoelina nor former president Ravalomanana can run in May-July 2013 elections. Following 10 Dec meeting with SADC troika chair Tanzanian President Kikwete, Ravalomanana 11 Dec announced decision not to contest elections; Kikwete 14 Dec met with Rajoelina to dissuade him from running, but agreement with Rajoelina not confirmed. UN 28 Dec said it will launch investigations into allegations of extrajudicial killings and mob lynchings in southern region Anosy since start of military’s Operation Tandroka against cattle rustlers in Sept; EU envoy Tezapsidis late-month expressed concern insecurity in south could affect preparations for polls. Govt 20 Dec declared state of emergency in capital due to increased number of armed assaults.

SADC 25 Nov condemned recent human rights violations, crackdown on freedom of expression by govt. Supporters of former president Ravalomanana 15 Nov criticised govt’s “authoritarian drift”. Amnesty International 20 Nov called on govt to rein in security forces in south who are accused of mass killings. Christian churches council 26 Nov began new mediation/reconciliation process aimed at bringing political roadmap signatories to negotiating table.

SADC consultation mission visited mid-month to assess roadmap implementation, feasibility of holding elections in May 2013. SADC military mission 15 Oct visited to assess security conditions in view of former president Ravalomanana’s return, met with detained soldiers. Security forces reportedly burned down 16 villages in south suspected of harbouring dahalo cattle-rustlers. ƒƒ

Govt mid-Sept deployed special forces in south following killing of at least 100 suspected Dahalo cattle-raiders in attacks by villagers 31 Aug-1 Sept, killing of 3 soldiers in Belo sur Tsiribihina 4-5 Sept by suspected Dahalos. Suspected Dahalos 14 Sept attacked Ihasy, Ibity villages in Antsirabe II District. Media 7 Sept reported 3 pro-opposition journalists sought refuge in S African embassy to escape security forces. Transitional President Rajoelina 26 Sept “allowed to travel” to NY to attend UNGA fol- lowing early Sept refusal of visa by U.S. consulate.

SADC heads of state summit in Maputo 17-18 Aug called on mediator to “intensify” engagement on implementation of election roadmap. 26 July, 8 Aug meetings between transitional President Rajoelina, former president Ravalomanana failed to resolve impasse. CENIT 2 Aug announced presidential elections to be held 8 May 2013; Seychelles FM Jean-Paul Adam 18 Aug said SADC considering holding elections “without Rajoelina and Ravalomanana”. South African National Prosecuting Authority 4 Aug said will investigate Ravalomanana for crimes against humanity. SADC late Aug reportedly sent mission to evaluate on-the-ground security conditions in view of Ravalomanana’s return. 3 injured 25 Aug in Analakely hotel bombing reportedly targeting military officer.