CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Madagascar

SADC 16 July issued 31 July deadline for President Rajoelina, former president Ravalomanana to finalise outstanding roadmap issues; rivals 25 July met without reaching agreement. Ravalomanana’s wife deported to Thailand 27 July following attempt to return to Madagascar; Ravalomanana said Rajoelina untrustworthy, deportation “flagrant violation” of resolutions reached during talks; SADC 31 July condemned attempt to return. Attempted mutiny successfully quashed by army 22 July; lead mutineer, negotiator killed; opposition radio station Free FM 24 July closed citing military intimidation for having broadcast mutineers’ statements. Ravalomanana served with summons 17 July for South African lawsuit filed by victims of 2009 violence leading to his overthrow. Rajoelina 18 July suspended 5 pro-Ravalomanana ministers over 3-month boycott of cabinet meetings.

Africa

Madagascar

At 1 June Troika summit, SADC called for urgent meeting between transitional President Rajoelina, former President Ravalomanana, 15 June threatened their exclusion from future talks if negotiations failed; leaders 15 June reportedly agreed to meet in Luanda 4 July. UN electoral mission report 8 June recommended May/June 2013 polls; Rajoelina, election commission appealed to UN to support 2012 polls. 4 suspects, including 2 army officers, arrested following alleged 8 June coup plot. Govt forces 20 June began assault on bandits in Befotaka following series of attacks. 11 bodies, suspected policemen, discovered 19 June in SW following 9 June military clash with armed ox rustlers.

Africa

Madagascar

Transitional President Rajoelina 18 May met UNSG Ban in New York, announced willingness to forge political agreement with former president Ravalomanana, hold elections soon, said Ravalomanana not allowed to participate in polls; Ravalomanana cautioned against poll prior to his return, supporters boycotted transitional govt meetings throughout month. Transitional electoral commission 29 May announced “partial” electoral calendar, deferred decision on election date to Aug. SADC Troika 11 May called for amnesties for all political exiles including Ravalomanana, end to transitional roadmap implementation stalemate. Police 19 May violently dispersed protesters demonstrating against media crackdown following 2 May detention of 2 journalists, several arrested. U.S. State Dept 2011 human rights report, released 24 May, labelled transitional govt “illegal”, condemned widespread unlawful killings, arbitrary arrests.

Africa

Madagascar

Transitional parliament 13 April adopted 2 amnesty laws, provisions exclude former President Ravalomanana due to Aug 2010 conviction for deaths in Feb 2009 violence. Ravalo- manana’s supporters boycotted vote, sent letter of complaint to SADC Troika; 28 April protested law, demonstrations violently dispersed by police. Former president Zafy accused transitional President Rajoelina of involvement in “Rosewood” illegal logging scandal, called for his resignation following 13 April sacking of Environment and Forestry Minister Randriamiarisoa over reported “mishandling” of affair, no replacement yet named for ministry. Close confidante to President Zafy, Mamy Ravatomanga, sued Randriamiarisoa for alleging Ravatomanga’s involvement in illegal logging.

Africa

Madagascar

Fears of further military uprisings following 7 March mutiny over salary arrears at CAPSAT Soanierana camp. SADC 14 March gave govt 2 weeks to finalise amnesty law allowing return of former President Ravalomanana; transitional govt 29 March tabled bill for amnesty law; heated debates expected in Parliament from 3 April. Govt 15 March unveiled new transitional electoral commission; civil society orgs said not independent, unrepresentative. Court 22 March condemned Colonel Andrianasoavina and others for attempted Nov 2010 coup d’état, acquitted former International Court of Justice VP Raymond Ranjeva.

Africa

Madagascar

President Rajoelina faced resistance as members of govt, including PM Beriziky, judiciary early Feb reportedly privately called for his resignation amidst growing pressure to implement SADC elections roadmap. Govt missed 29 Feb SADC deadline to adopt amnesty law allowing ousted President Ravalomana’s return. Police 6 Feb raided home of Ravalomanana’s son, suspected of drugs and arms trafficking; First Lady Lalao Ravalomanana denied return from South Africa 2 days earlier under Transport ministry ban.

Africa

Madagascar

Former president Ravalomanana 21 Jan failed to return from self-imposed exile in South Africa; political allies withdrew from consensus govt in protest. Regional mediators 26 Jan demanded Madagascar allow Ravalomanana to safely return by end of Feb.

Africa

Madagascar

AU Peace and Security Commission 9 Dec announced lifting of sanctions on President Andry Rajoelina, indicating satisfaction with efforts to set up consensus govt, urged former Presidents Albert Zafy and Ratsiraka to sign Peace and Reconciliation accord.

Africa

Madagascar

New PM Omer Beriziky 2 Nov took office as part of Sept political roadmap. Opposition 21 Nov split over new unity govt as 3 of 5 opposition party members rejected cabinet posts; 23 Nov accepted participation in govt, requested further SADC intervention in govt composition. Former President Ratsikara 24 Nov returned after 9 year exile.

Africa

Madagascar

PM Vital and interim govt resigned 18 Oct under terms of political road map signed Sept by main political parties, paving way for elections within a year; Omer Beriziky appointed PM by President of High Transitional Authority Andry Rajoelina 28 Oct.

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