Apparent breakthrough as SADC negotiators 17 Sept announced all parties signed roadmap for formation of transitional authority, elections within 12 months. But scepticism over whether signatories will respect deal following previous failed agreements, deep mutual mistrust. Deal includes amnesty for ousted president Ravalomana, but Justice Minister 18 Sept said Ravalomana would be imprisoned if he returns.

17-18 Aug SADC summit resulted in reaffirmed “commitment to supporting the mediation process”, mandated Troika and Mediator Joaquim Chissano to support implementation of roadmap. Chissano earlier announced conditions do not currently exist for free and fair elections, elections should be supervised by UN.

Following failure of June SADC call for unconditional return of ousted president Marc Ravalomanana, SADC mediator Joaquim Chissano continued to argue Ravalomanana’s return necessary for inclusive resolution to political crisis. AU Peace and Security Council meeting early July did not secure resolution on this or election roadmap, but inferred agreement would be reached shortly. De facto leader Rajoelina continuing with preparations for elections including voter registration process, despite concerns over partisan nature of Independent Electoral Commission. Reflecting frustration with international mediation efforts, civil society calling for intra-Malagasy dialogue. UN Special Rapporteur on Right to Food 22 July urged review of sanctions against Madagascar, warning country facing major humanitarian crisis.

SADC renewed efforts to broker agreement acceptable to all parties including coup leader Andry Rajoelina and ousted president Ravalomanana. Meeting in Gaborone, Botswana 6 June, Madagascar leaders failed to achieve consensus on Rajoelina’s candidature in prospective election and Ravalomanana’s return to country. SADC heads of state 11-12 June issued communiqué effectively endorsing roadmap with proposed amendments, including unconditional right of return for Ravalomanana and other political exiles; in return, SADC to recognize Rajoelina, effectively allowing him to lead transitional govt until polls. But High Authority of the Transition (HAT) and its military support base rejected amended SADC roadmap; Rajoelina said will proceed to elections with or without international recognition. In later permutation, SADC proposed amendment that would place responsibility on HAT to establish favourable political and security conditions for return of exiles.

De facto leader Andry Rajoelina early month visited Europe, Southern Africa to rally support for High Authority of the Transition (HAT) election plans; announced he would run in presidential elections, reversing previous pledge not to stand, said elections must take place this year. Former president Zafy’s Rodobe movement instigated daily rallies starting in Anosy 18 May aiming to reclaim public control of transition. 19-20 May SADC summit communiqué called for all-inclusive political process to find lasting solution in June. All parties claim communiqué favours their position.

De facto leader Andry Rajoelina 20 Apr returned from series of talks with leaders in Mozambique, Namibia and Zambia. Follows 31 March meeting in Zambia where SADC Troika postponed its decision on SADC mediators’ roadmap, recommended extraordinary summit of all regional heads; date yet to be announced.

Political uncertainty prevailed as only 8 out of 11 political movements 9 March initialled road map to end political crisis prepared by Southern African Development Community (SADC) mediator. 3 main political opposition groups, with exception of some individual members, refused to sign proposal. In line with road map PM Camille Vital and govt resigned 10 March; de facto leader Rajoelina 16 March reappointed Vital, 26 March named new govt; rejected by opposition. Meanwhile Rajoelina escaped 3 March road side bomb attack unhurt; opposition leader Mamy Rakotoarivelo accused of instigating attack, arrested 17 March.

Opposition submitted amendments to SADC road map saying version presented end Jan favoured de facto authority; SADC mediation 18 Feb sent first revised roadmap to all parties, arrived in Antananarivo 21 Feb to continue negotiations. Ex-president Ravalomanana 15 Feb said he would return from exile to find solution to political crisis despite warrant for his arrest, but authorities 19 Feb prevented his attempted entry.

De facto authorities, ex-President Ravalomanana in New Year speeches signalled readiness for compromise on transition govt. SADC mediators 31 Jan presented road map suggesting possible breakthrough in political stalemate. In statements to press Charles Andrianasoavina, leader of March 2009 mutiny which brought de facto leader Rajoelina to power, acknowledged coup was instigated by specially paid soldiers, not due to popular uprising. Ravalomanana 20 Jan lodged complaint with judicial authorities against “authors and accomplices” of 2009 coup.

De facto leader Andry Rajoelina 11 Dec promulgated new constitution, “fourth republic” following Nov referendum, still not recognised by international community and rejected by 3 main opposition groups. Mid-month SADC mission attempting to reactivate negotiations between de facto authorities and opposition, and commission an international mediation local liaison office, declined to comment on new constitution. World Food Programme 11 Dec warned 720,000 people at risk of starvation in south following 2-year drought. U.S. cable dated June 2009 published by WikiLeaks reported former president Ravalomanana recruiting mercenaries in France 3 months after being deposed by Rajoelina.