Month saw continued attempts by regime to implement unilateral transition, increasing suppression of opposition and attempted military coup. Ahead of 17 Nov referendum on new constitution, seen as attempt to legitimate current regime, 3 main opposition groups organised rallies protesting vote; 21 demonstrators arrested 10 Nov. Referendum saw strong approval for new constitution with 74% in favour, turnout at 53% despite opposition parties’ call for boycott, but observers noted several irregularities, opposition called for cancellation of vote. Group of some 20 dissident military officers proclaimed coup on day of referendum, surrendered 20 Nov after 3 days of talks and army assault; soldiers behind coup attempt arrested during military operation. SADC reiterated refusal to recog- nise referendum held “unilaterally” by Rajoelina govt outside internationally mediated agreements, sent envoy 26 Nov. U.S. announced before referendum would not recognise result. EU foreign affairs chief Ashton refused to send EU observers, joined calls for resumption of Malagasy dialogue, govt of national unity. International community “interference” rejected by Rajoelina in early Nov speech. Hundreds of protesters 20 Nov demonstrated against 20 Dec municipal elections; govt announced postponement of polls for “political and technical reasons”.

Authorities proceeding with transition based on 13 Aug Ivato agreement: 2 Oct finalised new constitutional proposal ahead of 17 Nov referendum; installed new parliament, with members nominated from signatories of Ivato accord. Supporters of de facto leader Andry Rajoelina dominate both chambers of parliament; party of former president Ravalomanana occupies 21 of 90 Higher Council seats. Main opposition parties continue to deny legitimacy of Ivato agreement, new parliament. Some 1,000 rallied in support of opposition 18 Oct, forcing postponement of trial of several opposition leaders over bomb planting charges. Strike also continued in Toamasina port, Antananarivo university. Ravalomanana spokesman 18 Oct announced Ravalomanana and former President Didier Ratsiraka, could soon return from exile to seek solution to ongoing political crisis. Govt 6 Oct said will revive economy without help of foreign aid. UN delegation visited Madagascar 17-24 Oct to evaluate political situation.

13-18 Sept national conference attended by some 4,000 civil society members and politicians; boycotted by opposition. Participants agreed de facto leader Rajoelina to remain as transitional president and appoint PM from coastal regions, mayors and regional chiefs to be replaced through elections 20 Dec; 2 legislative chambers to be set up for rest of transition; minimum age to run in presidential elections reduced from 40 to 35; selective amnesty covering 2002-2008. National civil society umbrella group said conference should have been delayed until political agreement was reached, is preparing another round of mediation and possibly a second national conference; position supported by international mediator Joaquim Chissano. Cabinet passed revised finance law allocating $100mn received from Chinese mining company directly to president’s office.

Following late-July civil society agreement to organise national conference, de facto leader Rajoelina invited coalition of some 90 political parties which had convened to reach political agreement for talks 9-11 Aug. Agreement signed 13 Aug sets dates for constitutional referendum 17 Nov, parliamentary elections  16 March and first round of presidential polls 4 May; Rajoelina to remain in power until new president elected, will appoint consensual PM from list provided by political parties. Number of signatories grew to some 160 over course of month. 3 main opposition parties yet to agree, boycotted discussions, organised conference to find common position. Civil society organised talks between coalition of parties and opposition but talks collapsed 27 Aug. Planned national dialogue postponed from end-Aug to 13 Sept. SADC stated support for national dialogue, announced creation of office to support it, but maintained sanctions. Political parties 22 Aug submitted proposed names for PM to Rajoelina. Former president Ravalomanana sentenced in absentia to life hard labour 27 Aug for Feb 2009 killings by presidential guards of Rajoelina supporters. Verdict rejected by Ravalomanana; observers fear ruling may complicate resolution of crisis.

No breakthrough in political impasse. SADC evaluation mission met with all major protagonists 4-8 July; head of SADC mediation team Joaquim Chissano arrived 22 July to continue efforts, reiterated all options remained open, not limited to prior agreements in Maputo and Addis Ababa. National Coordination of Civil Society Organisations (CNOSC) late month issued founding declaration: aims to end crisis through national mediation, rebuild country through comprehensive, all-inclusive consultation and reconciliation. Justice Minister dismissed pleas by ACP-EU parliamentary delegation 10-11 July to release all political prisoners, denied political detentions.

Political deadlock remained as de facto leader Rajoelina continued to pursue own unilateral transition plan. Constitutional referendum scheduled for 12 Aug postponed indefinitely 29 June because new draft constitution not yet finalised. Joaquim Chissano, head of SADC mediation team, 12 June said lack of political will on part of 4 main negotiating parties was hampering attempts to break impasse but insisted regional mediation efforts would continue. EU 7 June announced suspension of political dialogue and non-humanitarian aid for further year citing de facto govt’s failure to restore constitutional order.

Interim President Rajoelina 1 May declared Apr Pretoria talks failure; announced constitution of neutral govt after 3-4 May meetings with army; army had issued 1-month ultimatum for roadmap to end political crisis. In state address Rajoelina 12 May said he would not run for president in next elections; reportedly due to army and international pressure. President also announced organisation of national dialogue 27-29 May (later postponed), constitutional referendum 12 Aug, legislative elections 30 Sept and presidential elections 26 Nov, and requested exclusion of ex-presidents from polls. Govt reshuffled on 24 May to become “neutral” but only 10 new ministers (out of 32) including 5 members of army. At least 3 killed in 20 May clashes between national army mutineers and loyalists in Antananarivo; army re-established order same day; mutineers allegedly supported by Protestant pastors present during clashes and ousted President Ravalomanana; Ravalomanana 22 May denied charges.

28-30 Apr talks hosted by South African President Zuma between de facto leader Rajoelina and former President Ravalomanana failed to produce agreement on breaking political deadlock; talks to resume mid May. Former Presidents Ratsiraka, Zafy also attended. Army 12 Apr presented govt with end Apr deadline to produce roadmap for solution to crisis. 17 people accused of fomenting a coup and arrested 18 Apr alleged they had been paid by Ravalomanana; his supporters rejected accusation as attempt derail talks. Armed Forces Minister Gen. Rakotonandrasana sacked early Apr for allegedly planning coup after March meeting with top military officials.

AU Peace and Security Council imposed sanctions on de facto leader Rajoelina and 108 of his supporters after its 17 March deadline expired without progress on formation of unity govt. Opposition supporters held rallies mid month demanding implementation of 2009 power-sharing agreements; police fired tear gas, arrested several protestors. Following AU sanctions announcement, High Authority of the Transition (HAT) recommended travel bans, asset freezes for opposition members, refused to authorise future demonstrations. Govt roadmap for planned May elections confirmed during 2-day conference held early month; 3 main opposition parties, though invited, refused to participate.

Main opposition groups 5 Feb backed AU Commission Chair Jean Ping’s Jan compromise solution aimed at implementing existing Maputo and Addis Ababa power-sharing deals. De facto leader Rajoelina 5 Feb announced “transparent” parliamentary elections would be postponed from 20 March to late May. AU 2 Feb called on “the illegal regime” to stop acting unilaterally and implement power-sharing deals. International Contact Group 18 Feb and AU Peace and Security Council 19 Feb announced govt had 1 month to implement deals before sanctions. FM Ny Hasina Andriamanjato resigned 10 Feb over dispute on implementation of Maputo deal; Rajoelina 24 Feb appointed Admiral Hyppolite Ramaroson as replacement.