AU Commission Chair Jean Ping visited country 21-22 Jan to present compromise solution to Rajoelina, opposition leaders: plan includes return to Maputo framework and elections Oct 2010 at latest. Late month reports de facto leader Rajoelina had postponed 20 March elections; Rajoelina to meet with several political parties to discuss setting new date before Nov. Followed Rajoelina’s 22 Jan rejection of calls to reinstate power-sharing govt, calling power-sharing “the source” of current political crisis. Rajoelina govt held national workshop 6-7 Jan in preparation for elections. Opposition politician Fetison Andrianirina said warrant for his arrest in connection to 2009 foiled bomb attacks politically motivated. Security forces used tear gas to break up 6 Jan opposition protest calling Rajoelina’s Dec installation of new PM illegal.

Prospects for negotiated solution to leadership crisis deteriorated. Former presidents Zafy, Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana met in Maputo 3-8 Dec under auspices of SADC-appointed mediator Joaquim Chissano, issuing resolutions distributing ministerial portfolios between parties. De facto leader Rajoelina boycotted negotiations, alleged moves tantamount to coup, rejected further power-sharing talks and announced he could not guarantee the 3 former leaders’ security in Madagascar. Rajoelina 18 Dec issued “presidential decree” firing consensus PM, naming loyal army colonel in his place and annulling previous power-sharing accords. Followed by anti-Rajoelina protests outside National Assembly. U.S. 23 Dec announced trade benefits to Madagascar, under African Growth and Opportunity Act, terminated along with Guinea and Niger over “undemocratic transfers of power”.

Formation of interim govt again faltered amid continuing stand-off between rival political groupings. Political leaders met in Addis Ababa 3-6 Nov under auspices of International Contact Group, holding tense negotiations on post of interim president following ex-president Ravalomanana’s strong objections to de facto leader Andry Rajoelina’s claim. Compromise deal struck 6 Nov, assigning Rajoelina the presidency and creating Presidential Council including 2 copresidents to be filled by representatives of Ravalomanana and ex-president Zafy. Subsequent statements indicated clear disagreement between parties on co-presidents’ powers. Distribution of cabinet posts and formation of interim govt repeatedly postponed over month amid dispute over control of 5 key ministries. AU 7 Nov stressed Madagascar’s suspension would not be lifted until interim govt in place.

Aug power-sharing deal in tatters after Andry Rajoelina 8 Sept unilaterally formed “national unity” government, claiming presidency and appointing 31 mostly staunch supporters to cabinet posts; opposition parties denounced move and offer of participation. Regional and international bodies leading mediation effort immediately rejected “any unilateral solution”, called for new talks. Followed by further protests in the capital in support of ousted President Ravalomanana; forcefully dispersed by police. Transitional govt PM Roindefo 29 Sept said Madagascar may withdraw from SADC after group blocked Rajoelina from speaking at UNGA.

Talks to break political crisis held in Mozambique over month under auspices of SADC-appointed mediator Joaqim Chissano. Transitional authority leader Rajoelina, ousted president Ravalomanana and ex-presidents Didier Ratsiraka and Albert Zafy 9 Aug signed agreement to form power-sharing transitional govt by 8 Sept deadline, and hold national elections within 15 months. Progress quickly faltered over issue of govt leadership after Rajoelina 14 Aug announced his right to lead govt, rejected by Ravalomanana. Second round of talks – dubbed Maputo II – ended 28 Aug without agreement.

2 killed in explosion and 20 other devices reportedly discovered across capital 19 July in what national leader Rajoelina described as botched terrorist attack. Rajoelina’s administration 21 July issued arrest warrants for 5 senior former officials from ousted president Ravalomanana’s govt, withdrew from 22 July international contact group meeting. Talks proceeded in Addis Ababa with delegations from former presidents Ravalomanana and Didier Ratsiraka; SADC chief mediator Joaquin Chissano and UN mediator Tieblile Drame visited capital 28 July, announcing all 4 key groups had agreed to meet for talks in Mozambique early Aug. Rajoelina in early-month visit to Brussels failed to convince EU leaders to unblock €600m in EU aid, with EU dismissing Rajoelina’s “roadmap” for political transition as unconstitutional. FM 8 July announced country would hold elections before end 2009 “if means were available”.

UN- and AU-mediated talks between political leadership collapsed 16 June over amnesty clause to facilitate return of former presidents Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka, rejected by current leader Rajoelina. Followed verdict by Antananarivo court sentencing Ravalomanana – currently in South Africa – to 4 years and $70m fine for corruption; former finance minister Haja Razafinjatovo also sentenced. SADC leaders convened 20 June for emergency summit in 4 Johannesburg, announced new coordinated international strategy to broker negotiated solution, appointed former Mozambican president Chissano to lead dialogue. Regional bloc COMESA 8 June stated military intervention to restore constitutional order should not be ruled out; France and UN envoy Tiebile Drame condemned statement; Armed Forces Minister Rakotonandrasana announced military on maximum alert. In Antananarivo, pro-Ravalomanana protests held in Tiko and Magro stores over month; 11 June street protest forcefully dispersed by police amid continued ban on public assembly.

Standoff between current and former Malagasy leaders continued, with no concrete progress in talks or setting date for fresh presidential elections. International contact group, leading talks with representatives of Rajoelina and 3 former presidents, early-May called for former leaders to be barred from upcoming elections. Contact group later retracted call, 23 May announced possible deal allowing all to contest elections, 14 month transition period, creation of new truth and reconciliation commission into  political  violence.  But infl former president Ratsiraka withdrew from talks days later, demanding guarantees of amnesty for supporters; ousted president Ravalomanana followed suit, conditioned participation in further talks on guarantees for return from exile, liberation of political prisoners. Ravalomanana in 26 May media interview accused France of backing “putschist” Rajoelina govt.

2 killed, scores wounded in fresh clashes in Antananarivo between supporters of ousted president Ravalomanana and police 20, 24 Apr, amid near daily rallies against transitional govt. Public protests banned 20 Apr. Following 2-3 Apr national conference, head of new High Transitional Authority Andry Rajoelina announced legislative and presidential elections for March and Oct 2010, constitutional review with referendum Sept 2009. Ravalomanana maintained claim to presidency from exile in Switzerland, pledged to return under SADC supervision, ruled out power-sharing, 16 Apr appointed parallel “legal” PM who later announced partial cabinet; “PM” arrested in capital 29 Apr and warrant issued for Ravalomanana for embezzlement. International censure of new regime continued: SADC suspended Madagascar membership, while both UNSC and France issued calls for return to constitutional order. International Contact Group formed to broker dialogue between parties after initial meeting convened by AU-UN 9 Apr in Senegal ended in stalemate.