CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Côte d’Ivoire

Violence escalated in Abidjan and western regions as former president Laurent Gbagbo, losing candidate in Nov run-off election, refused for third month to cede power to Alassane Ouattara. UN peacekeeping mission UNOCI announced 6-year ceasefire broken 24 Feb, as pro-Gbagbo troops clashed with northern Forces Nouvelles rebels backing Ouattara in west, and fighting broke out for first time in Abidjan between troops loyal to Gbabgo and defectors now aligned with Ouattara. UN said fighting “changes the game”. UNHCR 18 Feb announced over 38,000 IDPs registered in western regions; 25 Feb said 5,000 refugees fled across border in 24 hours. Dozens injured 21 Feb as fresh clashes in Abidjan erupted between Gbagbo, Ouattara supporters; at least 6 killed when pro-Gbagbo troops fired at Ouattara supporters to disperse protests. Pro-Ouattara gunmen claimed responsibility for killing at least 10 soldiers during ambush on army convoy 22 Feb. UN experts came under fire 28 Feb while investigating reports of alleged violation of arms embargo; sanctions committee unable to confirm shipment, continue monitoring. Meanwhile, financial, economic difficulties increased as all major international banks suspended operations restricting both govt, public access to funds. Gbagbo 17 Feb announced plans to forcibly nationalise and re-open banks. Regional stock exchange suspended activities following 9 Feb seizure of Abidjan offices by Gbagbo forces. 4 African presidents on AU panel appointed in Jan met rival candidates 21-22 Feb, expected to meet again early March to define concrete proposals. UNSC 16 Feb approved 3-month extension for deployment of 2,000 additional peacekeepers drawn from UN mission in Liberia.

Africa

Côte d’Ivoire

Former president Laurent Gbagbo refused for second consecutive month to yield to regional, international pressure to hand over power to Alassane Ouattara, internationally-recognised winner of 28 Nov run-off presidential election. Nigerian FM Odein Ajumogobia 24 Jan said ECOWAS seeking UNSC resolution authorising use of force in last resort. AU 31 Jan named 5-member panel with month-long mandate to find durable solution to crisis. Security situation increasingly volatile as UN OHCHR 26 Jan said more than 260 mainly pro-Ouattara supporters killed in past 2 months, violence becoming more widespread, including 20 women raped in west, ethnic clashes reported in several areas. UNSC 19 Jan approved immediate deployment of 3 helicopters, 2,000 additional peacekeeping troops raising total number to more than 11,000. UNSG Special Advisers on Prevention of Genocide and Responsibility to Protect 19 Jan cited allegations that armed forces, militia groups are recruiting, arming respective ethnic groups; called for urgent steps to avert risk of genocide, protect those at risk of mass atrocities.

Africa

Côte d’Ivoire

Month-long political crisis over runoff election, violent clashes with more than 170 killed raising fears of return to civil war. Situation deteriorated dramatically 2 Dec as then-incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo refused to accept electoral commission (CEI) declaring former PM Alassane Ouattara winner of second round presidential election with 54% of eligible votes. Constitutional Council 3 Dec overruled commission, prompting both candidates next day to hold separate inauguration ceremonies, 6 Dec name respective cabinets. Violence erupted 16 Dec as Ouattara demonstrators fired upon by security forces backing Gbagbo. More than 170 killed in ensuing clashes between rival supporters; UNHCR 29 Dec said at least 15,000 fled to neighbouring Liberia, UN blocked from investigating sites of 2 alleged mass graves. Ouattara spokesperson 20 Dec accused Gbagbo of recruiting troops from Liberia, Angola. Regional bloc, international community declared unequivocal support for Ouattara: UNSC 8 Dec affirmed CEI results; AU, ECOWAS 9 Dec called for Gbagbo to step down, suspended Ivory Coast membership with immediate effect; EU 13 Dec imposed sanctions, 20 Dec travel ban on Gbagbo, wife, 17 allies; World Bank 22 Dec suspended financing, Central Bank of West Africa 23 Dec handed Ouattara control of state reserves. UNSC 20 Dec extended peacekeeping mission UNOCI mandate until 30 June 2011, defying demands by Gbagbo for UN withdrawal. UNSG Ban 21 Dec highlighted increasing human rights violations, warned country risks return to civil war. AU statement 27 Dec named Kenya PM Raila Odinga as AU lead in solving political crisis. 3 ECOWAS envoys, presidents from Benin, Sierra Leone and Cape Verde, 28 Dec delivered ultimatum to Gbagbo warning him to step down or face removal by force; Gbagbo said civilians at risk if regional forces intervened.

Africa

Côte d’Ivoire

Aftermath of presidential run-off poll saw clashes and tensions ahead of announcement of preliminary results; both candidates allege fraud, intimidation. 28 Nov second round between incumbent President Gbagbo and former PM Alassane Ouattara after 31 Oct first round poll produced no clear winner; Gbagbo won 38%, Ouattara 32%. Despite peaceful first round, 19 Nov clashes between rival supporters prompted fears run-off could trigger further violence; at least 3 people killed 27 Nov during clashes in Abidjan between riot police and Ouattara supporters. Curfew imposed 27 Nov; army 30 Nov began re-deployment of some 2,000 troops from northern rebel-held areas to Abidjan ahead of announcement of results.

Africa

Côte d’Ivoire

After 5-year delay, presidential election took place 31 Oct between 14 candidates including incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo, former president Henri Konan Bedie and former PM Alassane Ouattara. Campaign officially launched 15 Oct, marred by minor security incidents including 19 Oct attack on convoy of Ouattara. Peaceful vote 31 Oct commended by international observers. Provisional results expected 1 Nov; observers and analysts warning rejection of results could trigger new wave of violence.

Africa

Côte d’Ivoire

Following 6 month deadlock in electoral process, breakthrough 9 Sept with presidential decree confirming electoral lists, agreed early month by political parties. Also progress on election conditions as former rebel Forces Nouvelles 18 Sept completed disarmament and reintegration of 5,000 of estimated 17,000 former fighters; long-awaited demobilisation payments commenced 22 Sept. Fears persist that 31 Oct presidential poll may spark violence. Army Col N’Guessan Yao arrested early Sept in U.S. for allegedly plotting to export $3.8mn of small arms to Cote d’Ivoire, violating 2004 UN arms embargo; Defence Minister Bertin Kadet claimed purchase was for crowd control armaments, opposition say arms intended to keep govt in power.

Africa

Côte d’Ivoire

PM Soro 5 Aug announced presidential election overdue since 2005 will take place 31 Oct. During 7 Aug ceremony to mark 50 years independence, President Gbagbo criticised international pressure for elections. Electoral commission spokesman Bamba Yacouba confirmed new timetable including finalising voter lists 20 Aug-2 Sept, releasing definitive voters’ list 12 Oct, and distributing electoral cards 9-15 Oct. Ex-rebel Forces Nouvelles 14 Aug endorsed new calendar. UN released report 27 Aug on grave human rights abuses in aftermath of deadly Feb protests.

Africa

Côte d’Ivoire

PM Soro 23 July resigned as head of FN. ECOWAS 3 July renewed mediator mandate of Burkinabé President Campaoré, urged govt to hold oft-delayed elections before 2011. Demonstrators protested in Dadane and Touba 4 July against embezzlement inquiry into PM Soro and Interior Minister Tagro, claiming inquiry is attempt to stall peace process. Electoral commission 5 July issued preliminary voters list with 5.7mn voters; final review started 20 July. EU 5 July froze funds for elections due to lack of progress. 3 journalists fined 26 July for leaking documents of judicial inquiry into corruption in cocoa sector.

Africa

Côte d’Ivoire

Early month saw continued talks on electoral process between President Gbagbo and PM Soro, and opposition leaders Ouattara (RDR) and Bédié (PDCI). 500 ex-rebel Forces Nouvelles (FN) troops disarmed in Korhogo 15 June, FN said further disarmament dependent on govt funding. Gbagbo 20 June ordered inquiry into Interior Minister Tagro and possibly Soro, both suspected of corruption and embezzlement. Soro 21 June denied charges, opposition 23 June claimed inquiry intended to weaken Soro and sabotage electoral process. UNSC 30 June extended UNOCI mandate till end 2010 and expanded mandate to increase support for peace agreement implementation.

Africa

Côte d’Ivoire

UNSC 27 May rolled over ONUCI mandate until 30 Jun 2010. PM Soro 4 May announced complete revision of all voter lists by 10 May; 415 appeal commissions will be established for voters with unclear citizenship; ruling FPI welcomed decision; RHDP (opposition) criticised review of entire lists and resulting delays. President Gbagbo and Soro met opposition: held first meeting in 6 years with Bédié (PDCI) 10 May, met with Ouattara (RDR) 17 May; Soro claimed talks fruitful. Following talks, main opposition parties (RHDP, PDCI, RDR) 13 May canceled big demonstration to prevent clashes; though respected, decision frustrated youth-wings. Gbagbo 31 May refused to participate in 35th Africa-France summit; Gbagbo set dialogue on 2002 French military intervention as condition.

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