Tensions continued to run high between transitional authorities and political parties.

Opposition expressed concern over transition timeline. Transitional President Col. Doumbouya early Aug amended electoral code by decree, enabling military governors to appoint local state representatives. Opposition immediately denounced attempt by junta to consolidate power. Notably, Edouard Zoutomou Kpoghomou, leader of Union for Progress and Renewal political party, 7 Aug accused Col. Doumbouya’s military govt of attempting to extend transition period beyond 24-month timeline agreed upon with West African regional bloc ECOWAS. Main opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) 17 Aug also reiterated opposition to future electoral processes being led by military govt.

Political landscape reshaped itself in anticipation of future elections. After 19 opposition parties late July announced creation of National Alliance for Change to serve as common front ahead of next elections, nine political parties in Upper Guinea region 13 Aug announced joining force. Former UN Special Representative for Central Africa, Guinean diplomat François Louncény Fall, 11 Aug announced his candidacy for president. UFDG 15 Aug said preparations for leader Cellou Dalein Diallo’s highly anticipated return from exile still ongoing, with no fixed date in sight.

In other important developments. Delegation from Niger's junta 12 Aug visited Guinea and met with Col. Doumbouya to ask for “stronger support to face the challenges ahead”, in view of ECOWAS threat of military intervention.

Tensions between transitional authorities and political parties remained elevated following failure of mediation process.

Truce between opposition and transitional authorities remained fragile. Dixinn court of first instance 3 July claimed to not have jurisdiction over slander and abuse of authority case brought against Justice Minister Charles Wright by National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) protest movement leaders; latter same day brought case before Supreme Court. Meanwhile, authorities continued to harass opposition. Security forces 4 July prevented FNDC head of mobilisation, Billo Bah, from travelling abroad. Cellou Dalein Diallo’s Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) opposition party faced destabilisation attempt as Ousmane Gaoual Diallo, expelled from UFDG in June 2022 after joining Col. Doumbouya’s govt, geared up for UFDG presidency candidacy.

Tensions persisted between ECOWAS and transitional authorities. In interview with Paris-based weekly news magazine Jeune Afrique published 7 July, outgoing chairman of West African regional body ECOWAS, Guinea-Bissau President Sissoco Embaló, said Guinean transition was taking too long. ECOWAS 9 July held summit in Guinea-Bissau, lamented transitional authorities in West Africa’s “very limited” collaboration with ECOWAS mediators, reaffirmed need to restore constitutional order; heads of state same day elected Nigerian President Tinubu, who has previously come out as strong opponent of military coups, as new ECOWAS chairman.

In other important developments. Trial of 28 September 2009 massacre, in which govt forces killed over 150 demonstrators and raped over 100 women while Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara was heading country, 10 July resumed after 6-week suspension. Junta 30 July expressed support for Niger coup leaders.

Opposition coalition put demonstrations on hold, but political tensions persisted as transitional authorities launched consultations on constitutional reform.

Opposition suspended demonstrations, court acquitted key opposition leaders. Large opposition and civil society coalition Forces Vives de Guinée (FVG) 31 May put demonstrations on hold for June, citing preparations for Eid al-Adha celebrations. Dixinn court 13 June cleared three leaders of civil society platform National Front for the Defence of the Constitution – including Oumar Sylla, alias Foniké Mengué – of all charges levelled against them in mid-2022, including participating in an illegal gathering; public prosecutor immediately appealed acquittal, which was one of FVG’s main preconditions to resume negotiations with govt.

Transitional authorities moved forward with constitutional reform initiative. Transitional legislature 15 May-2 June organised constitutional consultations, calling upon institutions and political entities to discuss guiding principles of future constitution and present recommendations; armed forces suggested limiting number of political parties to three, while FVG boycotted initiative.

Tensions with ECOWAS remained latent. Transitional authorities postponed talks on conduct of transition scheduled for 18-21 June with West African regional bloc (ECOWAS) mediator for Guinea, former Beninese President Thomas Boni Yayi, citing higher agenda priorities. African Union Chairperson Azali Assoumani 23-25 June visited Guinea, met with transitional president, Lt. Col. Doumbouya; leaders likely discussed tensions between Conakry and ECOWAS on conduct of transition.

Changes in military leadership revealed tensions at highest levels of govt, and deadly protests erupted following failure of mediation process between transitional military authorities and opposition.

President Doumbouya took steps to fend off challenges to his rule. President Lt. Col. Doumbouya 9 May sacked top junta figure Gen. Sadiba Coulibaly as armed forces chief of staff, allegedly over disagreements on conduct of transition to civilian rule. Interim President Lt. Col. Doumbouya late April also sacked head of military intelligence, Lt. Col. Ismaël Keïta, citing “serious misconduct”, and disbanded battalion in charge of presidential security (which defended former President Condé during 2021 putsch), suggesting he may fear challenges from officers outside ruling junta.

New round of opposition demonstrations turned violent as mediation failed. Opposition coalition Forces Vives de Guinée (FVG) – notably including opposition leader Cellou Dallein Diallo’s movement, former President Condé’s Rally of the Guinean People, and political wing of National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) protest movement – 8 May refused to attend new round of talks with govt under auspices of religious mediators. Govt took part, proposed to grant conditional release to three imprisoned FNDC leaders, including Oumar Sylla (alias Foniké Mengué), if they committed to suspend militant activities, which FNDC leaders rejected. FVG supporters 10 May took to streets in capital Conakry, clashed with police; FVG said seven demonstrators shot dead and 32 injured, while authorities claimed three people killed. Small-scale demonstrations same day also took place in Nzerekore town in south east, and in central town of Dabola. In apparent sign of appeasement, authorities later same day released three FNDC leaders without condition until their trial, but renewed protests 11 May took place in Conakry. Situation remained tense through late May, with authorities 17-18 May deploying army in Conakry as FVG called for new demonstrations.

No breakthrough in talks between transitional authorities and opposition parties; meanwhile, protests erupted against power shortages.

Fragile talks proceeded between govt and opposition parties. Following first round of talks in March as part of mediation led by religious leaders, PM Bernard Goumou and Forces Vives de Guinée (FVG) – large opposition coalition including outlawed National Front for the Defence of the Constitution, opposition leader Cellou Dallein Diallo’s party and deposed President Condé’s Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) – in April held several rounds of talks in capital Conakry but failed to make tangible progress to ease political crisis. FVG continued to demand release of detained opposition figures, lifting of protest ban and new national dialogue supervised by Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), while Goumou reportedly failed to secure strong support for talks from key officials linked to military govt. Collapse of talks could lead FVG to call for renewed street protests.

Spontaneous protests erupted over power shortages. Youths protesting power cuts late March-early April occupied roundabouts and clashed with police in several neighbourhoods of Kankan city – both an RPG stronghold and interim president Col. Doumbouya’s birthplace. Govt 2 April sent security reinforcements to restore order, and 5 April suspended governor of Kankan region. Court in Kankan 13 April sentenced 15 protesters to jail terms on charges of “participating in non-authorised gathering” and “destruction of public buildings”. Situation eased in following days, but Kankan and other cities could see new violence amid recurrent power shortages.

Religious figures launched new mediation initiative between interim govt and opposition; relations with ECOWAS remained tense.

Govt and opposition engaged in fragile talks as part of new mediation initiative. Govt’s General Secretary for Religious Affairs Karamo Diawara, Grand Imam of Conakry Mamadou Saliou Camara and other religious figures 5-6 March met with representatives of Forces Vives de Guinée (FVG) – large opposition coalition including outlawed National Front for the Defence of the Constitution, former President Condé’s Rally of the Guinean People and Cellou Dalein Diallo’s Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea – as part of new effort to foster dialogue with transitional govt. FVG 8 March postponed anti-govt demonstration planned for 9 March to “give negotiations a chance”. Authorities 11 March briefly detained two FVG members, including prominent civil society activist Abdoul Sacko, in capital Conakry on undisclosed charges. FVG 13 March met with PM Bernard Goumou and requested end of legal proceedings against Sacko as pre-condition for negotiations. Authorities next day ended legal proceedings against Sacko, prompting FVG to suspend demonstration scheduled for 20 March. FVG around 25 March designated six representatives to discuss prerequisites for dialogue with govt.

Govt at loggerheads with ECOWAS over detention of former ministers. Paris-based news outlet Africa Intelligence 17 March revealed series of communications 28 Feb-13 March between West African regional bloc ECOWAS’s court of justice and Conakry over continued detention of three Condé-era ministers, including former PM Ibrahima Kassory Fofana, who were arrested in April 2022 for alleged financial fraud; regional court reportedly requested defence case statement outlining officials’ situation. All three former ministers 15 March refused to appear before Economic and Financial Offenses Court in Conakry, denouncing “targeted and repressive witch hunt”; court postponed audience to 20 March, then to April.

Interim President Doumbouya defied West African regional bloc over transition-monitoring body; opposition protests resumed and turned deadly again.

Relations with ECOWAS soured amid rapprochement with Mali and Burkina Faso. FM Morissanda Kouyaté 9 Feb met with Malian and Burkinabé counterparts, Abdoulaye Diop and Olivia Rouamba, in Burkina Faso’s capital Ouagadougou; ministers pledged to deepen economic and security cooperation and called on West African regional bloc ECOWAS and African Union to lift suspensions imposed on all three countries after military coups in 2021 and 2022 (see Burkina Faso and Mali). Col. Doumbouya same day unilaterally installed committee to monitor transition back to civilian rule, largely made up of govt ministers and their close aides, overtly disregarding ECOWAS’s months-long efforts to create inclusive committee. In response, ECOWAS Mediator for Guinea Thomas Boni Yayi suspended planned visit to country in March, while regional bloc 18-19 Feb called on junta to “refrain from any unliteral action that risks undermining collaboration” and declined to lift sanctions. In sign of possible concessions, Doumbouya 21 Feb reaffirmed that junta “will not be part of the after-transition”, while PM Bernard Goumou 23 Feb asked ECOWAS to provide “the necessary support” for pursuing transition.

Security forces clashed with opposition protesters. Outlawed coalition National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) 15-16 Feb led anti-govt demonstration in capital Conakry, demanding authorities lift nationwide ban on protests, release FNDC leaders and other prisoners detained for political reasons, and hold inclusive dialogue; clashes erupted between protesters and security forces, with FNDC 16 Feb reporting two protesters shot dead, 58 wounded and 47 detained; police said demonstrators erected roadblocks in several locations and threw stones at security vehicles, with seven security personnel injured. Govt later same day threatened to suspend opposition parties that 12 Feb supported FNDC’s call for protest, including Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea and former President Condé’s Rally of the Guinean People.

Interim govt rejected calls to reopen inter-Guinean dialogue outside country amid ongoing stifling of dissent.

Conakry ruled out possibility of resuming dialogue abroad. Col. Doumbouya’s interim govt 12 Jan rejected efforts by West African regional bloc ECOWAS to relaunch dialogue between interim govt and political and civil society groups outside country to include main opposition actors (who boycotted so-called inclusive inter-Guinean dialogue held in late 2022), said “there is no reason to hold talks abroad” as dialogue “has been wrapped up”. Meanwhile, UN Deputy Special Representative for West Africa and the Sahel Giovanie Biha 18-20 Jan visited country, met with PM Bernard Goumou and reaffirmed UN’s “commitment to support the ongoing transition… in accordance with the 10-point timetable for a rapid return to constitutional order”.

Harassment of opposition persisted. Authorities 17 Jan blocked Fodé Oussou Fofana, VP of opposition Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea, from travelling abroad; 21 Jan arrested Mamadou Billo Bah, prominent member of outlawed civil society platform National Front for the Defence of the Constitution, in capital Conakry, later accused him of taking part in “illegal gathering” and “destruction of property”.

Regional leaders insisted two-year transition to civilian rule must end in Oct 2024, while national dialogue concluded despite boycott by main opposition groups.

ECOWAS clarified transition timetable, national dialogue concluded. West African regional bloc ECOWAS 4 Dec said 24-month transition to civilian rule must start “immediately”, understandably referring to Oct 2022 when transition timetable was agreed upon, and not in Jan 2023 as Interim President Col. Doumbouya is advocating for. Meanwhile, PM Bernard Gomou 14 Dec castigated main opposition coalition’s “express refusal” to take part in national dialogue; dialogue’s participants 21 Dec presented conclusions and final recommendations to Doumbouya, including introducing 75-year age limit for presidential candidates and maintaining ban on street protests until transition ends. Opposition coalition 30 Dec rejected dialogue’s conclusions as unilateral.

Authorities targeted President Condé-era figures in anti-corruption drive. After public prosecutor’s office 2 Dec blocked former PM Ibrahima Kassory Fofana’s conditional release for fourth time since his April arrest on corruption charges, ECOWAS leaders 4 Dec expressed concern over Fofana and other former ministers’ continued detention. Doumbouya 11 Dec and 28 Dec retired over 2,000 public servants and 22 magistrates, respectively. Justice ministry 12 Dec sought proceedings against president of Guinean Financial Information Processing Unit and security forces 15 Dec detained former Constitutional Court president, both on corruption allegations. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury 9 Dec imposed sanctions, including asset freeze, on Condé for alleged human rights abuses by govt forces in 2020.

Former junta leader accused Condé of 2009 stadium massacre. In long-awaited testimony in trial of 2009 massacre of over 150 people in Conakry stadium, then-junta leader Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara 12 Dec said former Presidents Condé and Konaté (at the time opposition leader and defence minister, respectively), planned massacre as part of “plot” to outset him; also accused former aide-de-camp, Lt. Aboubacar Sidiki “Toumba” Diakité, of “executing” plan; Diakité’s lawyer immediately denounced “conspiracy theories”.

Main opposition groups boycotted ECOWAS-mediated dialogue with junta after listing conditions for participation, while repression of dissent persisted.

Junta and opposition remained at loggerheads despite regional mediation efforts. PM Bernard Gomou 10 Nov met with so-called quartet, group of four major opposition groups including National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) and deposed President Condé’s Rally of the Guinean People (RPG), to discuss conditions for participation in West African regional bloc (ECOWAS)-mediated dialogue; quartet listed release of political prisoners, end to protest ban and restructuring of ruling National Transitional Council as main prerequisites. FNDC, RPG and other quartet member 24 Nov boycotted opening session of ECOWAS-mediated dialogue, said govt was acting in bad faith. Col. Doumbouya-led junta is set to meet with ECOWAS before year’s end to validate 21 Oct agreement on 24-month transition back to civilian rule; junta insists latter starts from 1 Jan 2023, while main opposition groups wants 5 Sept 2021 coup as start date.

Prominent protest leaders prolonged detention without trial. Two senior FNDC leaders jailed after leading banned protest in July, Ibrahima Diallo and Oumar Sylla (aka Foniké Mengué), 7 Nov announced hunger strike to protest prolonged detention without trial; 15 Nov suspended strike at request of their lawyers.

Authorities targeted Condé as part of anti-corruption campaign. Justice Minister Charles Wright 3 Nov ordered legal proceedings on corruption charges against Condé, who has resided in Türkiye since May, and 187 former Condé officials, some of whom are dead or already in prison. Col. Doumbouya 16 Nov also dismissed Infrastructure Minister Yaya Sow, citing corruption charges.